We're only nine weeks in, but with a month to go, the Big 12 title race is pretty simple, and will be painfully simple if Kansas State dispatches of Oklahoma State on Saturday.
Coincidentally, the Big 12's top three teams from a year ago are the same top three in 2012 as it stands, but Kansas State holds a clear tiebreaker over Oklahoma, via its victory in Norman back in September.
Oklahoma State and K-State are the only teams that still control their BCS title destiny. If Oklahoma State springs the upset and wins out, the Cowboys would be Big 12 champions because of their head-to-head victory against Kansas State.
If Kansas State wins, it could still afford a loss down the stretch and win the Big 12 title, because it would hold the tiebreaker against both Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.
If Oklahoma State wins, however, and loses to Oklahoma at the end of the season, Kansas State would be the Big 12 champion because it would hold the tiebreaker over the Sooners and Oklahoma State would have two losses.
To reach a three-team tiebreaker and call in the Big 12's new tiebreaker rules, there would have to be multiple losses to teams at the top of the standings. It's possible, but Kansas State has by far the easiest remaining schedule of the Big 12 contenders.
The Wildcats are clearly in control, and what's barely a three-horse race right now would become a true three-horse race if Oklahoma State springs the upset in Manhattan. If Kansas State wins, however, it may coast to an outright Big 12 title at season's end.
Big 12 standings:
1. Kansas State (5-0)
T-2. Oklahoma (3-1)
T-2. Oklahoma State (3-1)
T-4. Texas (3-2)
T-4. Texas Tech (3-2)
6. West Virginia (2-2)
T-7. Iowa State (2-3)
T-7. TCU (2-3)
9. Baylor (0-4)
10. Kansas (0-5)