It's time to look forward to 2013 and the Big 12's best passers. Hitting 3,000 yards is the benchmark for a productive season as a college quarterback.
Four Big 12 quarterbacks threw for at least 3,000 yards last season -- but all four threw for more than 4,000 yards. Two more quarterbacks hit 2,500 yards.
Who will crack the mark in 2013? With so many jobs up in the air, it's going to be tough to predict, but here's who I'm buying as a 3,000-yard passer in 2013, in order of the likelihood they'll do it.
1. Bryce Petty, Baylor: Of all the new quarterbacks in the Big 12, Petty has the most experience in his current system and has the deepest receiving corps. BU's got solid running backs, but this is still a pass-first offense and Petty's got an arm capable of making any play necessary. This is a no-brainer.
2. Michael Brewer, Texas Tech: Call me a believer in coach Kliff Kingsbury as an offensive mind. We'll see about Texas Tech as a whole, but Brewer's got a diverse skill set and his ability to run will make it easier for him to throw. Defenses will have to watch for both. Add to that a high tempo and a very, very good and deep receiving corps, and Brewer should be able to crack 3,000 yards sometime in early November.
3. Clint Chelf, Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State didn't have a 1,600-yard passer last year, but that's what happens when the injury bug bites. OSU has had a 3,000-yard passer in three of the past four seasons before that, though, and cleared the mark easily in team passing yards in all three seasons under the Air Raid. Chelf's likely to hit 4,000 if he wins the job officially.
4. David Ash, Texas: Ash has never hit the 3,000-yard mark, but he's getting better and his receivers are, too. Texas wants to play faster, too, which means more snaps and more pass attempts for Ash, even with a great running back corps with a ton of depth. He was at 2,699 yards last year, but he's got a great shot to get over the top this year.
5. Casey Pachall, TCU: Back in 2011, Pachall was 79 yards short of his first 3,000-yard season. He was well on his way last year with almost 1,000 yards in his first four games (including a win over SMU in a downpour). This one may be close, but if Pachall recaptures the job and only looks like a shell of himself, the odds are still in his favor to crack 3K.
6. Blake Bell, Oklahoma: This one may be close. I'm giving Bell the benefit of the doubt here. Bell's not as refined a passer as Landry Jones, but he's better than he's looked thus far in his career. He'll be running more than Jones, but I'm betting Bell clears the 3,000-yard mark safely.
7. Clint Trickett, West Virginia: West Virginia's going to run the ball a lot more this season with a lot of depth and talent at the position, but it's hard to see whoever wins the QB job not hitting at least 3,000 yards. They won't be reaching Geno Smith's 4,200 yards, but if Trickett beats out Ford Childress and Paul Millard in the Big 12's most unpredictable QB competition, he's hitting 3,000 yards.