Tim's mailbag: Why BCS coaches' votes must be made public
Posted by ESPN.com's Tim Griffin
Here's a collection of some of the correspondence and e-mails I received this week.
Chris Coney from Austin writes: The final USA Today Coaches' Poll of the regular season needs to be made public. I am sending this to everyone I can find. If the next-to-last coaches' poll has a bearing on the Big 12 South Division champion, this poll has to be made public. I leave the explanation as to why this is absolutely imperative as to why this is absolutely imperative to the intelligent, professional writers who can explain it better than me.
Tim Griffin: Chris, you do a pretty good job, if you ask me. You are absolutely right. With so much riding on that potential poll, it must be made public and the Big 12 itself should be the one demanding the results are made public for full scrutiny.
I actually think that settling a potential three-way tie involving Big 12 South teams would make coaches vote with their self-interests first as much as if a BCS bowl berth was riding on it.
And as I've mentioned in previous mailbags, Texas Tech coach Mike Leach and Texas coach Mack Brown both have votes in the USA Today poll and Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops does not. It would be interesting to see how that would play a part in the potential voting.
Kyle from Stillwater, Okla., writes: Tim, I was just wondering if you could go ahead and play out the next few weeks in the Big 12 and tell us how you believe the BCS will play out for the Big 12.
Tim Griffin: OK, Kyle. I'll do it. Just don't put the down payment on your house on my predictions.
In the North, I think Missouri wins at Iowa State and Texas beats Kansas this week, giving the North title to the Tigers.
If only the South was as easy to extrapolate. But I think Texas will win this week and Oklahoma State beats Colorado to remain with two losses.
Next week, I think Oklahoma beats Texas Tech to throw the South Division race into a three-way tie. And in the final week of the season, Texas will defeat Texas A&M, Texas Tech will beat Baylor and Oklahoma will beat Oklahoma State.
That would throw three teams into a tie for the Big 12 title. And it will make the conference utilize the BCS rankings as the fifth tiebreaker. And at the time of the end of the regular season, I'll predict that Oklahoma barely noses out Texas for the South Division title based on those BCS standings. The reason will be the boost that the closing rush the Sooners receive at the end of the regular season with their two late victories over Tech and Oklahoma State. Even with the loss to Texas earlier in the season, I'm guessing that Oklahoma jumps the Longhorns for the BCS title-game berth.
And in the championship game, I expect Oklahoma will beat Missouri. The conference's two BCS teams will then be Oklahoma and Texas. And if Florida and Alabama both lose another game between now and the end of the regular season, we might end up seeing a rematch of the "Red River Rivalry" at the BCS Championship Game Jan. 8 in Miami. Which would only be fitting considering that the game played Oct. 11 between the two teams at the Cotton Bowl might have been the best in the rivalry in the last 10 years or so.
Remember, those predictions and 89 cents will get you a large soft drink somewhere, I hope.
Matt from Daytona Beach, Fla., writes: Hey Tim, why does Kansas still receive votes for the top 25 despite losing to Nebraska? Kansas has not beaten anyone yet, and have lost to all ranked teams and Nebraska! What's the deal?
Tim Griffin: Matt, I agree with you. When I saw the list of teams that received votes in this week's national AP rankings and saw Kansas listed instead of Nebraska, I was shocked. I guess whoever made that vote didn't watch the game or its highlights.
I think the Cornhuskers are clearly a better team now than the Jayhawks are. And they proved it on the field Saturday in Lincoln.
Max from Fort Collins, Colo., writes: I am a big Nebraska fan and am confused about how Nebraska took Texas Tech into overtime and barely lost but all the other top-ranked teams can't beat the Red Raiders. Why aren't other teams able to replicate Nebraska's success against Tech?
Tim Griffin: I'm as confused as you are, although I do think that Tech -- and particularly its defense -- is much better today than it was when that game was played on Oct. 11.
Few teams recently have been able to match the Cornhuskers' success because Tech's defense has done a nice job of getting off the field on third down. That's easier said than done.
Look at what happened to Oklahoma State last week. The Cowboys jumped to a 7-0 lead and seemingly had all the momentum behind them. And then Graham Harrell proceded to direct seven-straight touchdown drives to blow the game open.
The Oklahoma game will be interesting because the Sooners don't have the philosophy of grinding out victories over opponents. Sam Bradford likes the quick-strike mentality of beating an opponent quickly. So it should be a shootout. First team to 50 might win.
Dylan from Nebraska City, Neb., writes: Tim, how come the Cornhuskers are going to the Sun Bowl. The Insight Bowl takes the #6 Big 12, correct? I'm just wondering why those guys in Phoenix wouldn't want us more than KU because of revenue, fans, etc.
Tim Griffin: Dylan, you actually have the order of those bowls reversed. The Sun Bowl, if it picks a Big 12 team, will have the fifth pick in the Big 12's pecking order and Insight Bowl will be sixth. You are right in that the Cornhuskers would be a more attractive pick -- particularly if they finish the regular season with two more victories this season as they very well could do.
Todd from Rockville, Md., writes: The Sooner defense is not as bad as you think and are just now 'gelling' after the loss of Ryan Reynolds. A&M got 26 yards against them with lots of turnovers. OU just doesn't lose at home. As an unbiased observer, OU is the best team in the Big 12. Yes, they lost to Texas, but remember: bad calls on passer roughing kept two scoring drives alive, there was a kickoff return for TD and dropped interception in the end zone. Without that scenario, it could have easily resulted in a 10-point Sooner win. Vegas would favor OU. Remember, Texas Tech needed overtime to beat Nebraska. Their defense is better, but so is Oklahoma's.
Tim Griffin: You are right about the Texas-Oklahoma game in some parts, but you are also forgetting about the way that Texas dominated the line of scrimmage in the second half. Texas' speed defensively gave the heralded Oklahoma offensive line fits after the break. And the Sooners had some uncharacteristically shoddy tackling down the field. I realize the Sooners rarely lose at home -- they are 59-2 at Owen Field in the Bob Stoops coaching era. But this Tech team may be uniquely qualified to give them a lot of problems, particularly if Auston English isn't playing. Harrell's protection gives him the ability to pick apart a lot of secondaries. Oklahoma would just be another notch on his belt.
I look for a shootout. It might hinge on which team plays better in special teams, and both teams have struggled throughout the season in that facet of the game.
Niel from Dallas writes: Tim, I have a comment on the sack chart that you posted on your Big XII blog. You have sacks correlating to winning when you should have winning correlating to sacks. In other words, because those top teams have spent so much time ahead in football games, their opponents have been forced to pass
the ball. More opponent pass attempts leads to more sack opportunities.
Tim Griffin: Except in the Big 12, where everybody passes on almost every down, anyway.
Chris from St. Louis writes: Tim, what is with all of the projections having the Gator Bowl selecting Notre Dame? Once every four-year cycle the Gator can even jump the Cotton Bowl and take the first Big 12 team after the BCS. Is this not the best oppurtunity for that? With Notre Dame heading for a likely 7-5, and the third-place Big 12 team 11-1, is there any way that the Gator would actually take a 7-5 Notre Dame over an 11-1 Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas Tech?
Tim Griffin: You are forgetting about the magical television ratings attraction of Notre Dame. Remember, the Gator Bowl picked Texas Tech last season and attracted a crowd of 60,243 -- nearly 17,000 fans short of a sellout. If Oklahoma and Texas are the Big 12's two BCS teams as I predicted above, I don't see any rush for the Gator Bowl to jump in front of the Cotton Bowl to pick Missouri or Oklahoma State or have another shot at Texas Tech. If that was the case, having a chance to match Notre Dame against North Carolina might be the Gator Bowll's safest pick, while holding onto that chance to jump the Cotton Bowl for another year.
To my readers, thanks again for all of the good questions. Please keep them coming and I'll try to answer them.
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