Thursday, May 2, 2013
Projecting the 2013 Big 12 standings
By David Ubben
Colleague Brian Fremeau at Football projected the finish of each Big 12 team and calculated the odds of each Big 12 team winning the title.
He says Texas leads the way at 10-2 with a 39 percent chance of winning the league, but also says five teams in the Big 12 have zero chance of winning the Big 12.
You'll need ESPN Insider to read the full piece, but I'll definitely check in before the season with my own projections. It's not hard to see Texas winning the Big 12, but I don't buy the Longhorns as the league's favorite. I believe in advanced metrics to tell you more about games that have already happened and give you a better insight into team's strengths and weaknesses, but I don't buy them as reliable predictors of future games.
Such is life in college football.
Fremeau says Oklahoma State has the second-highest percent chance to win the league, at 30 percent. That's ahead of in-state rival Oklahoma, at 16 percent.
Big 12 sophomores TCU is the only other Big 12 team Fremeau gives a reasonable chance to win the league, with 14 percent. Kansas State is at No. 5 in his rankings, and the other big surprise for me is Texas Tech below West Virginia in his rankings.
Give the post a look. He also offers a win total range for each team in the Big 12, and says only one could go undefeated.