ESPN College Football

We're moving on in our series on the Big 12 Blog pegging the single player each team in the Big 12 can't afford to lose. He's also the player that will be most responsible for the team's ultimate success.

What are you looking at, Jar Jar Binks?

• Could Wes Lunt lose his spot as OSU's starting QB? Offensive coordinator Todd Monken says if he doesn't play well in fall camp, it's possible.
• Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads is fighting for Alzheimer's research. Why? "Because it's personal to me," he said. Andrew Logue of the Des Moines Register has the story. Will Rhoads always be at Iowa State? He talks about the complicated issue.
• West Virginia starting defenders Darwin Cook and Terence Garvin were arrested for shoplifting after stealing snacks from a convenience store.
• Baylor received a large donation that will go toward naming rights of the field inside its new stadium. It'll be called John Eddie Williams Field.
• Would you like to go to a Texas football game with Longhorns superfan Matthew McConaughey? Today is your lucky day, friends.
• After a handful of suspensions, Berry Tramel of the Oklahoman breaks down the winners and losers at Oklahoma.
• WVU is searching for a media partner for its third-tier media rights, and could have one by September, writes Mike Casazza of the Charleston Daily Mail.
• Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy sits down for a wide-ranging Q&A with Bill Haisten of the Tulsa World.
• Paul Myerberg at Pre-Snap Read pegs five transfers to watch in the Big 12.
• Coley Harvey of the Orlando Sentinel addresses the idea of Florida State to the Big 12 in the wake of the ACC media deal.
• Texas Tech safety Cody Davis takes you inside the last few weeks of the semester in the life of a college athlete.
• Brandon Weeden helped former Oklahoma State teammate Josh Cooper become his current teammate with the Cleveland Browns.
• Turner Gill's poor recruiting classes are hurting KU in 2012, writes Tom Keegan of the Lawrence Journal-World.
• Colleague Ivan Maisel points to what's unique about Oklahoma's new transfer.
• The Big 12's website takes a post-spring look at Texas Tech.
• And because WVU fans have been begging me all day to put this in lunch links ... here you go.

Another spring has come and gone in the Big 12. In this league, it's a long one. Texas Tech kicked things off on February 17, just two weeks after signing day.

Kansas and Kansas State didn't wrap it up until spring games on April 28.

Through it all, we learned a lot. Here's a taste.

Texas is inching much closer to contention: The offense? Well, it's still a work in progress, though David Ash showed some solid progression during the spring. But the defense? It's leading the way for the Longhorns' road back from the 5-7 implosion in 2010. Quandre Diggs and Carrington Byndom might just be the two best cornerbacks in the Big 12, and Alex Okafor and Jackson Jeffcoat are probably the two best defensive ends. Great coverage and a great pass-rush? Sounds like a good start to slowing down Big 12 offenses. Add in junior college man-child Brandon Moore, and solid linebacker play with Jordan Hicks, Demarco Cobbs and Steve Edmond, and the Longhorns have a unit that can help them get back into title contention.

Only one team doesn't know who its quarterback will be: Baylor hardly had a competition to replace RG3. Kansas replaced Jordan Webb with transfer Dayne Crist. Oklahoma State pulled the trigger on a youngster. Texas hasn't officially named him, but Ash has all but sewn up the job in Austin. That leaves Iowa State, which has sophomore Jared Barnett and senior Steele Jantz competing for the job for a second consecutive fall. Anything could happen there.

Mike Gundy has guts: Oklahoma State said goodbye to a mature, big-armed passer in Brandon Weeden, who won 23 games in two seasons. However, the reigning Big 12 champion again will have a big arm at quarterback. Gundy made the league's gutsiest move this spring, handing the reins to 18-year-old Wes Lunt from Illinois. He's one of just six players in the Big 12 from Illinois, and he's a decade younger than Weeden. Robert Griffin III was the league's last true freshman to start a majority of games, but Lunt might be the first to win the job in the spring.

There's a new sherriff in town: The Big 12 knew Chuck Neinas was a quick fix at the commissioner spot, but the league made a quick move in pegging Stanford AD Bob Bowlsby as the new commissioner to replace Dan Beebe, who was fired in September. The Big 12 is likely to cash in on a nice TV deal shortly after Bowlsby takes over, but he'll have to help reconnect a league that must work through some possibly divisive issues like expansion in the near future. He'll also need to manage the relationship between Texas, who he referred to as an "800-pound gorilla," and the rest of its Big 12 brethren. The relationship sounds good now, but over time, issues could arise.

Charlie Weis is making sure KU looks nothing like its 2011 team: Kansas has undergone the biggest change of any team in the Big 12 this offseason. New coach Weis saw a lot of problems at KU, and went about fixing them quickly. He welcomed six Division I transfers, including three from Notre Dame, which included his new quarterback, Crist. He also saw gaping holes along the defensive line and tried to fill them with junior college players and high schoolers who will be challenging for playing time in the fall. Kansas will look a lot different, but will it be better?

2011 overall record: 12-1
2011 conference record: 8-1

Returning starters: Offense 6; defense 8; P/K 2

Top returners
RB Joseph Randle, WR Tracy Moore, WR Isaiah Anderson, CB Brodrick Brown, LB Shaun Lewis, S Daytawion Lowe, LB Alex Elkins, CB/KR Justin Gilbert

Key losses
QB Brandon Weeden, WR Justin Blackmon, S Markelle Martin, DE Jamie Blatnick, C Grant Garner, RT Levy Adcock, WR Josh Cooper, WR Michael Harrison

2011 statistical leaders (*returners)

Rushing: Joseph Randle* (1,216 yards)
Passing: Brandon Weeden (4,727 yards)
Receiving: Justin Blackmon (1,522 yards)
Tackles: Daytawion Lowe* (97)
Sacks: Jamie Blatnick (8)
Interceptions: Justin Gilbert*, Brodrick Brown* (5)

Spring answers

1. Handing the reins to the youngster: I had my doubts about whether OSU would actually pull the trigger and name a starting quarterback. For the Cowboys to name 18-year-old true freshman Wes Lunt is a big move, and proof of the staff's confidence that the Illinois native is the best man for the job. The summer will be about him establishing himself as the team's leader, but seeing how he handles the fall will be fascinating.

2. Rebooting the offensive line: You could say OSU must replace four starters on the offensive line, but sixth-year senior Jonathan Rush has plenty of experience while he returns from a knee injury, and Lane Taylor returns, too. Michael Bowie was a starter-quality contributor last year, and Parker Graham earned rave reviews for his work in the second unit last year, moving into a starter role for the final five games. Evan Epstein is the man at center, but replacing Grant Garner won't be easy. This is a unit hardly devoid of experience.

3. Emerging stars at receiver: OSU knew Justin Blackmon and Josh Cooper would be gone this year, but Michael Harrison's exit from the team was a surprise. OSU needed talents to emerge in the spring, and they did. Josh Stewart was a big standout, as was juco newcomer Blake Jackson, in the mold of former Sooners star Jermaine Gresham. Charlie Moore exploded for 243 receiving yards and three touchdowns in the spring game.

Fall questions

1. How far can Lunt take the Cowboys? Oklahoma State will carry the banner of defending Big 12 champs for the first time in school history next fall. They'll do so with a wide-eyed true freshman making his way through plenty of unfamiliar territory and playing plenty of new faces for the first time. His ceiling is high, but Oklahoma State will start in the top 25 and is good enough to be a factor in the Big 12 title race. How far will Lunt carry them?

2. Who's filling in for Markelle Martin? Martin was the leader of the defense in 2011, but defensive coordinator Bill Young says replacing him will be done by committee. Lavocheya Cooper, Zack Craig and Shamiel Gary will be in the mix, but how will that rotation work out in the fall?

3. Can the defense carry more of the load? OSU forced 44 turnovers last season, the most of any team in college football. It also finished 107th nationally in total defense. The Cowboys won't have the same awe-inspiring offense in 2011, but the defense returns a lot of experience and a lot of talent. Defensive ends Jamie Blatnick and Richetti Jones leave holes in the pass rush. The defense should be better, but it has to be. The margin for error will be much smaller.

WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS

2011 overall record: 10-3

2011 conference record: 5-2

Returning starters: Offense (8), Defense (6), P/K (2)

Top returners: QB Geno Smith, WR Stedman Bailey, WR Tavon Austin, RB Dustin Garrison, RB Shawne Alston, S Darwin Cook, S Terence Garvin

Key losses: DE Bruce Irvin, LB Najee Goode, DE Julian Miller, S Eain Smith, CB Keith Tandy

2011 statistical leaders (*returners):

Rushing: Dustin Garrison* (742 yards)

Passing: Geno Smith* (4,385 yards)

Receiving: Stedman Bailey* (1,279 yards)

Tackles: Najee Goode (87)

Sacks: Bruce Irvin (8)

Interceptions: Keith Tandy (4)

Three spring answers

1. A clear defensive vision: Jeff Casteel packed up for Arizona and rejoined former WVU coach Rich Rodriguez in Tucson. He took the 3-3-5 with him. On the way to the Big 12, coach Dana Holgorsen went away from the defense that made a name for the Mountaineers. Now, he's got co-defensive coordinators Keith Patterson and Joe DeForest getting his team ready to utilize a 3-4 with a pass rush built to confuse and fluster Big 12 quarterbacks.

2. Wealth overflows at receiver: Bailey and Austin make a great case for being the Big 12's No. 1 and 2 receivers entering the 2012 season, but now true freshman Jordan Thompson adds even more depth to the position. He provides another target for Smith.

3. No worries on offense: WVU is already one of the most productive offenses, and any doubt was eliminated during a quiet spring in West Virginia before one of the most anticipated seasons in school history. The passing game should be fine, but Shawne Alston filled in well for Garrison, who was out this spring after seriously spraining a knee during practices for the Orange Bowl.

Three fall questions:

1. Can the Mountaineers handle the heat? West Virginia is no stranger to big games. Its played LSU and Auburn in recent years and is 3-0 on the BCS stage. Can WVU handle the week-to-week grind of the Big 12 and difficult venues every week? The step up from the Big East won't be as great as TCU's from the Mountain West, but it's still going to be more difficult. WVU was the only Big East team ranked in the top 25 for most of the 2011 season. Six Big 12 teams will likely be ranked in the preseason.

2. How explosive is this offense in Year 2? Holgorsen can work some magic with his offense, and he'll have lots and lots of toys in 2012. Brandon Weeden didn't get a second year with the offensive wizard, but Holgorsen has high hopes for special talents in Smith and Austin, two players he can't complement enough. Is West Virginia the best offense in its new conference?

3. A clear vision, but will it work? West Virginia recruited to build a 3-3-5 scheme, but it'll try and piece together the 3-4 in a defense that lost its top three pass-rushers from 2011. Holgorsen knows what he wants to do schematically on defense, but there's certainly reason to doubt whether it can handle the huge jump in quality of offenses from the Big East to the Big 12.

This time last year, we broke down who in the Big 12's would most likely hit the benchmarks for their positions in 2011. The quarterbacks came first.

Here's what I wrote then.

The clear line designating the best at the position is 3,000 yards. Plenty will top the number, and some from the Big 12 will even hit 4,000 yards.

In 2011, 39 quarterbacks broke the 3,000-yard mark.

Well, it's time to grade the prediction.

I broke down all 10 teams' prospects at having a 3,000-yard passer, but picked only six to do it.

1. Landry Jones, Oklahoma -- Jones topped 3,000 yards as a freshman filling in for an injured Sam Bradford in 2009 and had 4,718 yards last season, almost 500 yards more than anyone else in the Big 12. He also had the most attempts of any quarterback in college football. It's safe to say he's got this.

Final yardage tally: 4,463 yards

Thoughts: Easy pick here. Not much to say.

2. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State -- Weeden is probably a good bet to clear 4,000 yards, too. He had 4,277 last season and brings back a Biletnikoff Award winner at receiver in Justin Blackmon. He and Jones should be locked in a season-long battle for a spot as the first-team All-Big 12 quarterback, among other honors.

Final 2011 yardage tally: 4,727 yards

Thoughts: Weeden definitely won that battle with Jones, but RG3 surpassed even the highest expectations for him in 2011, winning the Heisman. Still, no contest on the 3,000-yard mark.

3. Seth Doege, Texas Tech -- Texas Tech has had a 3,000-yard passer for 11 consecutive seasons, the longest streak in college football. Coach Tommy Tuberville wants to run it more, but not that much more. Doege looks likely to slide into a spot as the next in line for two seasons.

Final 2011 yardage tally: 4,004 yards

Thoughts: His offense sort of crumbled around him thanks to injuries -- his top two running backs and receivers both missed significant time, and the offensive line was banged up, too -- but Doege did a great job continuing the quarterback tradition at Tech as a first-year starter.

4. Robert Griffin III, Baylor -- Griffin's 3,501 yards was his first 3,000-yard season, and he showed lots of development as a passer during his sophomore campaign. That should continue as a junior in 2011, and he's got a deep, talented receiving corps.

Final 2011 yardage tally: 4,293 yards

Thoughts: Well, undershot this one. We all knew RG3 had upside, but legitimate Heisman potential? He surprised us all with that one. He also helped Kendall Wright win the Big 12 receiving title, too.

5. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M -- Tannehill only had 1,638 yards last season, but he did it in just more than six games. With Jeff Fuller and a handful of other capable receivers, he should clear the mark easily in 2010.

Final 2011 yardage tally: 3,744 yards

Thoughts: Tannehill had his problems in 2011, namely throwing a league-high 15 interceptions and stumbling to a 7-6 record, but he was productive. He parlayed his season and a half of experience into a top-10 draft pick. Not bad. Fuller, though, was another story. We'll get to the receivers later.

6. Tyler Gabbert/James Franklin, Missouri -- I don't have much doubt that the pair will combine for at least 3,000 yards, but Missouri has a handful of solid running backs and both look like capable quarterbacks. If one struggles, the other could fill in and leave the Tigers without a 3,000-yard man at the helm.

Final 2011 yardage tally: 2,872 yards

Thoughts: Gabbert transferred just weeks after this was written, but Franklin took a hold of the job and played well as a sophomore. I knew he'd run and change Mizzou's offense a bit, but I'm not sure I expected him to run as much as he did (217 rushes). He handled it well, but it was surprising. He threw the ball 98 fewer times in 2011 (377 attempts) than Blaine Gabbert did in 2010 (475 attempts).

I didn't believe Texas, Iowa State, Kansas State or Kansas would have a 3,000-yard passer. None of them did. In fact, none of them even had a 2,000-yard passer, even though K-State and Kansas started the same quarterback in each game all season.

All things considered, how would you grade my picks?

Thanks for all the emails this week. It's been a fun one. Here's where you can reach me.

On to your emails.

Jay Young in Midland, Texas, wrote: Wow David! 6 out of 10 Big 12 teams in the top 25. Two of which lost a lot of expereinceand talent. Do you have an actual thought process on this, or just wishful thinking?? Please convince me!

David Ubben: Do you really need that much convincing, Jay? Sure, teams that bring back the most starters tend to get breaks, but Oklahoma State is really the only team in the six who lost a ton of talent that it may have trouble replacing. Justin Blackmon and Brandon Weeden were both once in a lifetime players. That said, they bring back a ton on offense and having two of the best running backs in the Big 12 in Jeremy Smith and Joseph Randle will help ease the transition from 28-year-old senior Brandon Weeden to 18-year-old true freshman Wes Lunt.

TCU and West Virginia lost a lot on defense, but both will have high-powered offenses that make them solid cases as top 25 teams. Bottom line, Jay: The Big 12 is really, really deep next year, even if it lacks what I'd consider a legitimate national title team. Oklahoma could do it, but they'll have to be much more consistent than they've been the past 2-3 years.

There's no doubt in my mind, though. The Big 12 has six bona fide preseason teams entering 2012. You never know how it will play out -- Texas A&M taught us that last year -- but when it comes to talent returning and replacing, the Big 12 will have as much as any league in the country.

Ryan in Stillwater, Okla., wrote: Davicus! Do you envision any new rivalries develop in the big 12 with TCU and WVU? (Baylor and TCU already seem to be that way) Thanks!

DU: This will be the fascinating part of the transition for these two teams. WVU is leaving behind its biggest rival in Pittsburgh, who was leaving for the ACC anyway. The Mountaineers, with Dana Holgorsen running the show, have something of a ready-made rivalry with Texas Tech (could Holgorsen end up the head coach there at some point?) and Oklahoma State (who may chase after Holgorsen when Gundy retires in 2055). But really, that only does so much. Ultimately, rivalries will be decided by memorable games, and for WVU, it could be anyone.

TCU will have leftover rivalries with Texas Tech and Baylor from its Southwest Conference days, and don't be surprised if one develops with Oklahoma and Texas in the years to come when TCU starts going after some of the top players in the DFW metroplex ... and getting them to sign. TCU still has that 2005 win over the Sooners on their home field, too, that I'm sure the Sooners fans haven't forgotten.

Pete in Paw Paw, Mich., wrote: Your take on the FSU and Clemson expansion rumors?

DU: I get asked this a lot. I don't believe them. I haven't seen any reputable media outlet write anything that's given them any legs. That said, rumors have persisted for months and refuse to go away. Does that say something? Nothing's impossible.

Rharkeem Wright in Memphis, Tenn., wrote: Is SMU really leaving C-USA to the Big 12?

DU: No.

Brian M. in Las Cruces, N.M., wrote: Ubbs, I feel like the only person in the world who doesn't like the new cfb playoffs. Having more than 2 teams get a shot at the 'ship is great but is this really the best way to do it?

DU: Yes.

Blake in Iowa City wrote: Here's an idea to fix the location for games in the playoff system, instead of playing at the higher ranked team's actual facility why not have it so that the teams with the higher ranking host the game at the same stadium that their conference championship game was (since those already are selected geographically). Then to a degree the games are home and to a degree neutral as well.

DU: Blake, I gotta hand it to you. This idea sounds sort of crazy, but I sort of love it. It could pose some logistical issues I suppose -- do you reserve these venues? -- but I doubt those kinds of things would be any more serious than playing at a campus site. The one problem that could arise is making teams travel to the same site two weeks in a row, or two games in a row, depending on when semifinal games are played.

That's not a big deal for, say, OU, Texas or TCU playing at Cowboys Stadium, assuming that would be the Big 12's site. Maybe the team could choose Arrowhead or Cowboys Stadium? That seems a little hokey.

But what about Arkansas playing in Atlanta? Or Nebraska playing in Indianapolis? What about West Virginia playing in Cowboys Stadium? Would fans be willing to travel to the same spot for two consecutive games? You could deal with attendance issues at that point.

That said, I don't hate the idea.

Zack in Basra, Iraq, wrote: David, I'm yet another WVU alumnus -- so first of all thanks for the warm welcome and extensive coverage. And thanks for visiting Morgantown and seeing it for your self. I'm really enjoying your detailed analysis and thorough responses to everyone on the mailbag. My question is why do you believe WVU will have less success over the next decade than TCU? I'm not necessarily arguing your point but you've said it more than once and as far as I recall, I don't remember you ever saying why. Perhaps it's the potential for Holgerson to move up and out in the near future, or the size of our athletic budget, recruiting track record? Look forward to your response. All the best, Zack

DU: My point isn't really about West Virginia as much as it's about TCU. I think WVU's success will remain relatively static. Maybe a little better or a little worse, depending on how recruiting goes.

TCU, however, is about to get a major upgrade all over the place. It'll be pumping money into facilities, but most importantly, it'll be a Big 12 team in the metroplex recruiting in the metroplex. WVU can't really compete with that. TCU's going to start hauling in tons of more talent as long as they can win with a little consistency -- not even win big, just win 7-10 games every year -- as they merge into the Big 12.

So, for me, it's not about West Virginia. It's about TCU taking advantage of its upside. It gained a lot more by joining the Big 12 than West Virginia did.

We've already gone over my thoughts on the Big 12's first round of the draft. What about the rest? Here are some thoughts:

• [+] Enlarge
  Brian Spurlock/US PresswireThe Lions saw enough from Ryan Broyles to take a risk on him in the second round.
  Absolutely fantastic to see Ryan Broyles find a home in Detroit in the second round. Broyles is a second-round talent, and it was great to see him recognized as such -- with NFL teams seeing enough out of his newly-rehabbed knee to know he's a solid prospect. No player in the history of college football had more receptions. I like his chances for a productive career, especially on a building Detroit team with a lot of talent, especially at the offensive skill positions.
• I've written about it in the past, but I'm intrigued to see what Missouri tight end Michael Egnew does at the next level. He was less productive than his predecessors at Mizzou, Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman, but supposedly is a more talented blocker. Coffman got stuck in a franchise that didn't seem willing to use him for what he is -- a receiving tight end -- but can Egnew shed the Mizzou tight end stereotype? We'll find out in Miami.
• Really happy to see things work out well for Oklahoma's Frank Alexander, who was drafted in the fourth round by Carolina. He had a scare at the combine. Doctors thought he had a heart condition and his playing career was in jeopardy. Turns out, he was fine. Glad the mixup didn't cost him more than it could have.
• Allow me to join in the chorus of folks asking, "What the heck is Washington doing drafting Kirk Cousins?" Nothing against Cousins, who I actually think will do well at the next level (or could elsewhere, at least), but this isn't even about bringing in a fellow rookie to "compete with" Robert Griffin III. Washington has plenty of other holes. The Redskins couldn't try to draft and fill it, while finding a backup quarterback in free agency? Seriously. Good grief. And you wonder why Washington hasn't won anything in a long while.
• Ronnell Lewis' fall from top-25 prospect to fourth-rounder is intriguing. Did NFL teams see him up close and get spooked by his lack of a true position? In my book, he'd be a great defensive end, but if NFL teams think he's too small, I have major, major doubts about his ability to play the linebacker spot. The mental part of the game didn't come easily to Lewis at OU, but his career will be fascinating to watch. He's got a high motor, and if it doesn't work out, it won't be because of a lack of effort.
• Good on A&M's Randy Bullock, who went in the fifth round. Prepare for a similar fate in 2011, Quinn Sharp.
• Interesting to see OU's Travis Lewis fall all the way to the seventh round. How much did his broken toe in 2011, which he rushed back from to help his team, hurt his NFL stock? His tape from senior season was underwhelming, no doubt. NFL teams had to be scared about his lack of progression from freshman to senior year, at least not what you'd expect from a guy who topped 140 tackles as a freshman.
• A year ago, A&M folks were rejoicing a future Big 12 title run when Jeff Fuller announced his intention to return. The Aggies went 7-6 and Fuller went undrafted. I hate to see when guys who make decisions to come back get hurt by them, but Fuller's season started with a hamstring injury, and his production never recovered, even when he got healthy. Almost the exact same scenario with A&M corner Coryell Judie, who couldn't get healthy in 2011 and didn't get drafted, even though he was one of the Big 12's top players in 2010.
• Meanwhile, Bryce Brown was drafted, and his 2011 tape included three total carries, one of which was a fumble on his own goal line that nearly cost 10-win Kansas State a game early in the season. Take a bow, Mr. Brown.
• Adding Josh Cooper to the Browns to play with Brandon Weeden? Well played, Cleveland. Well played.
• How did Leonard Johnson go undrafted? I have no idea. Seemed like a solid middle rounder to me, and he proved his worth plenty of times this year against some great Big 12 receivers. His physical skills don't wow you, but he's instinctive at the position, and was physical and productive.

Colorado: Please come back to the Big 12.

• What does Wes Lunt starting at Oklahoma State mean? Berry Tramel of The Oklahoman breaks it down. He also says the news of a playoff was the best of a jam-packed Thursday.
• West Virginia AD Oliver Luck is one proud papa, but he's not interested in the Big 12 commissioner job.
• Can Texas win the Big 12? A panel of folks from Athlon weigh in on the question.
• TCU fans can still purchase a brick at the new Amon G. Carter Stadium.
• Doesn't sound like Brandon Weeden's going into Cleveland to compete with Colt McCoy. It sounds like he's replacing him.
• Jenni Carlson of The Oklahoman says OSU's QB decision had odd timing and overshadowed Justin Blackmon and Brandon Weeden's draft night. The Oklahoman's Gina Mizell <a href%3

Good to see a handful of Big 12 names called in the first round of the NFL draft on Thursday night.

What did I think? Glad you asked.

• No surprises in the top two picks, which have both been essentially in the can for weeks. A nice touch by Robert Griffin III with the Redskins socks, but the slogan seemed a little cheesy. Cheesy or not, it's true. Griffin and 31 other gifted athletes caught their dreams on Thursday night. Congratulations to all. Reaching this point isn't easy, even for the most physically gifted players.

2012 NFL Draft

Rd. 1: April 26, 8 p.m. ET
Rd. 2-3: April 27, 7 p.m. ET
Rd. 4-7: April 28, Noon ET
Radio City Music Hall
New York City
Draft order | Draft home

•  Mel Kiper's latest mock
•  Todd McShay's latest mock
•  Mel Kiper's Big Board
•  Todd McShay's Top 32
•  Blog Network mock draft 2.0
•  Draft Machine

• Well, it looked like Justin Blackmon would catch passes from one former Big 12 rival quarterback (Sam Bradford, St. Louis), but instead, he may do it for another. Former Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert gets a much-needed target, but he'll have to re-earn his job after an awful rookie season. St. Louis seemed like a better fit for Blackmon, rather than the Jaguars, but Blackmon's a true game-changer in my book. I think he'll have an effect wherever he goes.
• Miami got its man in Ryan Tannehill. For as much talk as his inflated draft stock has gotten in the past few weeks, this looked pretty likely. Now, we'll see him in action. Like most others, I love Tannehill's upside. With some experience, he could be great. But he needs time. He wasn't outstanding in college, and he's obviously inexperienced at the quarterback position. There are zero questions from me about his physical skills, but I like the chances for his decision-making -- which had major, major issues in 2011 -- to improve if he gets lots of practice reps rather than being thrown in the fire immediately.
• Sheesh, WVU. Y'all got on me for saying you wouldn't have a first-rounder in this post, but it was mostly a throwaway phrase, not a prediction. Most places I'd read had Bruce Irvin as a second- or third-rounder. I obviously didn't see him play much, and don't really have any thoughts on his play. But it's not like I was knocking it, either. I don't exactly keep track of the draft stock of players I never really saw play. Sorry about that. When it's things I'm truly covering, I pay attention. Well, most of the time, anyway. Or something. Either way, my mistake on that one.
• What a great spot in Tennessee for Kendall Wright. I'm not sure I could ever see him carrying an NFL offense, but Wright's good enough to work underneath and stretch the field. I don't buy him much as a game-breaker against No. 1 corners all season, but in a supporting role? Huge, huge pickup for the Titans. As he matures, he may just prove himself as a true No. 1 receiver. His size is the biggest question for me, but he's got great hands and great speed. I just might draft Wright as a late-round sleeper in my fantasy draft next fall.


Which quarterback will have the better NFL career?

•  
  44%
  Ryan Tannehill (No. 8 to Dolphins)
•  
  56%
  Brandon Weeden (No. 22 to Browns)

(Total votes: 102,279)

• Huge congrats to Brandon Weeden, too. The guy deserved it. There's no question in my mind he's a first-round talent and a guy who could be a star at the next level. Not many people gave him a chance to be a first-round pick, but I think the more teams saw of him on and off the field, the more they fell in love with him. It's not hard to see why. The age issue probably would have made me wait until the second round to take him, but if he succeeds, nobody will care. Props to Weeden for handling the age issue so well the past two years. Dude's been asked about it no less than 50,000 times, and he always seemed to handle it with grace. Not sure I could do that. I don't know what his career holds, and it's going to be difficult in Cleveland without many offensive weapons around him, but he's a smart, good decision maker with a humongous arm. That's plenty enough to make an impact.

Our NFL draftniks, Todd McShay and Mel Kiper, have released their final mock drafts before tonight's draft, so feel free to follow along as Big 12 talents get their names called.

McShay went all the way through seven rounds with his mock. Here's Kiper's mock draft , too

Here's where they slotted the first-rounders.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

• Kiper: No. 2, Washington Redskins
• McShay: No. 2, Washington Redskins

"They gave up a lot, but in the end the Redskins will get their man," Kiper writes. "I'm excited to see what RG3 can accomplish in D.C., and the work the Redskins did to add pieces to the wide receiving corps (regardless of the prices paid) will certainly make the transition easier. Great kid, big-time promise. Should be fun to watch."

Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

• Kiper: No. 6, St. Louis Rams
• McShay: No. 7, Jacksonville Jaguars

"I had St. Louis as a team likely to move down, given that we know the front office has been openly interested in the idea. But if they're still here, I think Blackmon is the pick," Kiper writes. "He'll pay immediate dividends for the offense, and Sam Bradford will finally have a target most of us evaluators can see as a potential true No. 1."

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

• Kiper: No. 8, Miami Dolphins
• McShay: No. 8, Miami Dolphins

"No surprises here. I've said before I think Tannehill has been a little overhyped by the draft process, but I agree with colleague Todd McShay that the upside is undeniable," Kiper writes. "This really is the best setting for Tannehill, too. We know Miami lacks a long-range plan at quarterback, and while Tannehill isn't an immediate starter, you take him for the promise. Joe Philbin gets another young project to take on. He's succeeded with young QBs before."

Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State

• Kiper: No. 22, Cleveland Browns
• McShay: No. 37, Cleveland Browns

"For weeks we've seen Weeden as a great fit for the Browns at No. 37 overall. The problem is Weeden is the last QB in the draft after RG3 that most front office folks believe can start games early if called on," Kiper writes. "The Browns really want to find competition for Colt McCoy. If they don't get Weeden here, they risk losing him. They know they can still get a good player early in Round 2. I think you secure the QB here."

Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

• McShay: No. 26, Houston Texans

Tonight, it's almost certain that Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, both quarterbacks, will be the first two names called in the NFL draft.

Shortly after, Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill will hear his name called. But what about later on in the draft?

Who will be the fourth quarterback taken?

Mel Kiper and Todd McShay took to a debate between Oklahoma State's Brandon Weeden and Arizona State's Brock Osweiler.

It's an interesting read.

Kiper writes:

"... a franchise quarterback doesn't need to be a 15-year starter. We're looking too much at the exceptions and not enough at the reality. Those players are not something you can really plan for. You can't assume one starter will span three or four coaches, several general managers and multitudes of new players.

Weeden is an older player (he'll be 29 this fall) but one who, if he were 22, might be the second quarterback off the draft board. He really is that good, but his age is holding him back. Still, were he to get starts early in his NFL career -- and succeed -- you would be looking at a player who could easily give a franchise seven or eight very good years.

Is that something to scoff at?"

McShay, though, says Osweiler's worth looking at.

"Weeden (maturity, leadership), Foles (pure pocket passer) and Cousins (best intangibles) all have impressive traits. Osweiler is the least NFL-ready right now, but he is the most gifted and has the best chance to be a long-term, successful NFL starter.

It's easy to write Osweiler off if you look only at his 15 career starts, Arizona State's five-game losing streak to end 2011 and his performance in a blowout bowl loss to Boise State. However, there's a lot more to this guy than what's on the surface."

Who would you take? The biggest QB or the oldest QB?

Straight down the middle, no hook, no spin, no fuss. Anything more and this becomes figure skating.

• Scary incident in Lubbock on Wednesday. A Texas Tech football player was hit by a bus. His roommate tweeted a photo of the damage.
• The next steps to a college football playoff are falling into place. Be still, my beating heart.
• Gina Mizell of The Oklahoman has a few leftover thoughts after OSU's spring game.
• Could Iowa State lineman Kelechi Osemele sneak into the first round of tonight's draft? Speaking of sneaky first-rounders, could OSU QB Brandon Weeden do the same?
• West Virginia Illustrated breaks down how the Mountaineers' 2009 recruiting class is doing these days.
• Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill is the biggest wild card in the draft, writes Charean Williams of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
• SI.com's Stewart Mandel says Tannehill's overrated, and OSU safety Markelle Martin is underrated.
• The spring game was something special for WVU offensive lineman Josh Jenkins. Bob Hertzel of the Times West Virginian explains.
• Here's KU running backs coach Reggie Mitchell mic'd up at a recent practice.
• Oklahoma State picked up its second commit of the 2013 class, a 6-foot-5, 300-pound lineman from St. Louis who was also considering Auburn and Florida.
• I'm sure you remember K-State running back Bryce Brown. He's still hoping he hears his name in the NFL draft this weekend, reports Kellis Robinett of the Wichita Eagle.
• Kansas coach Charlie Weis is trying to create a new fan tradition in Lawrence, writes Matt Tait of the Lawrence Journal-World.

STILLWATER, Okla. -- The similarities? Well, they're almost too uncanny.

A record-setting quarterback? Gone.

The best receiver in school history? Gone.

And that was in the spring of 2010.

Dez Bryant took a trek south after being drafted in the first round by the Dallas Cowboys. Zac Robinson took his ball and left for the NFL, too.

In the fall, Mike Gundy's Oklahoma State squad was picked to finish fifth out of six teams in something called the Big 12 South.

Instead, the Cowboys won 11 games for the first time, coming a defensive stop or two away from knocking off Oklahoma and playing for the Big 12 title, which also would have been unprecedented for the program.

There are more new faces in the spring of 2012. Could Oklahoma State overachieve again?

"I feel like it’s kind of the same. Gundy said that spring we were so good because we were scared," said sixth-year offensive lineman Jonathan Rush. "I wouldn’t exactly agree that we were scared, but I feel that urgency."

How could he not? Two-time All-Big 12 first-team quarterback Brandon Weeden is headed to the NFL. Two-time Biletnikoff Award winner Justin Blackmon is likely to hear his name called in the top 10 of tonight's first round of the NFL draft.

Oklahoma State's 23 victories in the past two years were the highest total of any two-year period in school history, and Weeden and Blackmon were the two biggest pieces of a team that captured the Cowboy's first Big 12 title.

"It’s real similar, except Weeden was an older guy. Weeden was 26 years old or however old he was back then," Gundy said.

Now, Oklahoma State is left to rely on three inexperienced quarterbacks without the minor league baseball experience that helped shape Weeden's even-tempered demeanor.

The similarities don't end at what's gone, either.

"We’ve got good running backs, good receivers and we’ll be as good on the offensive line as we’ve been," Gundy said.

All-American Kendall Hunter helped carry the 2010 team with a 1,500-yard season, the second of his career. In 2012, Joseph Randle is ready to carry the offense after rushing for 1,200 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2011. Jeremy Smith and Herschel Sims fill out the rest of the Pokes' deepest unit, which also features a fourth underrated, powerful runner in Desmond Roland.

"We’re further along on defense, because we recruited well the '09, '10, '11 and '12 seasons, so we’re further along athletically," Gundy said. "But offensively, it’s about the same."

Gundy is entering his eighth season in Stillwater this fall. In 2010, he credited a system that had been drilled into players for the surprising success. Knowing what was expected helped to soothe some of the growing pains new players would experience in a new system.

That's been drilled only deeper into this year's squad.

"They realize what they have to do personally. How to practice. They realize those things that are essential to be a good team. You have to work hard, show up on time. It’s not even so much a big thing," Rush said of the team's younger players. "They realize how essential little things are. Working hard, not quitting. Finishing."

Said receiver Isaiah Anderson: "I feel like we have a lot more leaders now than people know. It’s not just up to the seniors to lead. The young guys can step in and lead if they need to."

The biggest talents are gone. This year, OSU won't be picked near the bottom of the Big 12. Instead, it will be near the bottom of the top 25.

With the spotlight on teams above OSU, will 2012 be yet another Stillwater surprise for the Big 12?

"Be on the lookout, but they know we’re coming now," Anderson said. "We all know what it takes to get there and willing to do what it takes to get there again."

STILLWATER, Okla. -- Wednesday morning, Oklahoma State's coaches met, but at no point during the day did smoke of any color drift from above Boone Pickens Stadium, signifying that the torch had been passed from record-setting quarterback Brandon Weeden to his successor.

Nowhere inside the stadium did Pickens tap a fresh-faced quarterback on each shoulder with his orange scepter, designating him as the face of the program Pickens has pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into.

Well, not yet, anyway.

The decision might still come later this week. It might not. Either way, the delay says plenty. The target date of naming a starter by the end of spring has passed. Oklahoma State held its spring game Saturday.

"If we don’t know, then we won’t do it. But if we know, then we’ll certainly do it," coach Mike Gundy told ESPN.com in a recent interview. "That’s as important as anything we'll do in the offseason."

Gundy wants his new quarterback to spearhead offseason workouts and entrench himself as the guy his teammates follow. He can place deadlines on the decision all he wants, but ultimately, junior Clint Chelf, redshirt freshman J.W. Walsh and true freshman Wes Lunt will make the decision on the field.

"It’d be nice to have a starter named by the summer, but you’d better be in that position where you know for sure," Cowboys offensive coordinator Todd Monken said. "You wouldn’t want guys to be bummed all summer and not work as hard, and then one week into fall camp be like, did we screw that up?

"You want it to be done if you know, but if you don’t know?"

That's where Oklahoma State finds itself today. Do OSU's coaches know? Lunt, Walsh and Chelf didn't make it easy on them through 15 practices this spring.

Each received an equal share of work with the first team, and Monken says that's all that can truly be evaluated when making the decision. The second-team offense -- namely receivers and offensive line -- aren't good enough yet to provide a reliable measuring stick.

None of the three signal-callers fell behind enough to redistribute reps to the top two and thus allow the coaches a larger sample; giving players too many reps with a lesser supporting cast could be a fatal blow to the trait Monken and Gundy want most: confidence.

"We’ve got to continue to play well around these guys and allow them to function, because none of them right now are capable of carrying us themselves. We don’t have that guy right now. He’s not here right now," Monken said. "Maybe he will be, but right now, he’s not."

Monken's not exactly sweating. He had a guy who could do it last year in Weeden, but looking around college football, he knows few teams have a quarterback who can truly carry a team.

"It didn’t take long when ol’ (Oklahoma receiver Ryan) Broyles went down and (OU) started running the dozer to think, 'Do we have our guy?' That didn’t take long," Monken said. "Landry Jones went from like, 'I’m the man,' to all of a sudden, 'I haven’t thrown a touchdown pass, I'm fumbling it over my head at Oklahoma State. I gotta go back and see my quarterback guru.'"

There's no doubt Oklahoma State's coaches have pored over hours of tape from all three candidates in the past few weeks and months. Still, there's no resolution.

"They’re all doing really good," Monken said. "They wouldn’t say that, as much as I yell at them, but they’ve all done better than I thought they’d do for where they’re at."

Walsh has improved his mechanics. Chelf has proved his status as the group's elder statesman and embraced a role as a leader. Lunt has done his best to figure out what is going on and showcase his status as the quarterback with the most traditional build and arm strength.

Some of what coaches want, though, can't show up on game tape.

"The biggest thing is that the cats around him believe in him," Monken said.

Weeden is gone. Oklahoma State doesn't have a quarterback who exudes greatness. Yet, anyway. It does have three good ones, though, and even with a decision looming, Monken isn't all that nervous.

"You can go from a guy who makes everybody look a lot better to guys we’ve got to help out a little bit. But they’ll be fine. We’ll be fine. Winning and losing this year won’t be a matter of whether we find a quarterback or not," Monken said. "It’ll be, will we stay healthy with the guys we have and the depth that we have. That’ll be the big thing. The guys will play well around whoever we have."