Big 12: Victor Johnson
We'll move on to the safeties today in our position rankings across the Big 12.
Here's what we've covered so far:
The group of safeties across the Big 12 isn't fantastic, without any truly elite groups, but it's decent. There aren't any teams that look really hopeless at the position in the immediate future.
I haven't given it real close examination so far on the positions we haven't covered yet, but this is by far the closest gap between 1-10 of any position so far.
Here's how I ranked them. (Remember, I lumped in nickel backs with linebackers, so Ahmad Dixon and Tony Jefferson won't be found anywhere in this post.)
1. Oklahoma State -- The Cowboys have Markelle Martin, the Big 12's best overall safety who's a big talent but a much better hitter than he is a cover man. Johnny Thomas is solid and both safeties got a lot better as the 2010 season progressed. OSU's depth lands them here, though. Daytawion Lowe could start for a few Big 12 teams and is slightly better than A&M and Texas' reserves, the other two teams with the deepest group of safeties.
2. Texas -- Blake Gideon takes his share of criticism, a good deal of it fair, but there's a reason he's starting for Texas for a fourth season this fall. He knows what he's doing. Kenny Vaccaro will challenge OSU's Martin, among others, for the title of the Big 12's biggest hitter and Nolan Brewster and Christian Scott are strong reserves at the position. The Longhorns lose a lot at corner, but all the safeties are back from a defense that allowed just over 170 yards a game through the air in conference play last season.
3. Texas A&M -- The Aggies' Steven Terrell and Trent Hunter are solid, and Hunter is a big playmaker who made 62 stops and picked off two passes last year. Toney Hurd Jr. is the backup and was one of the most impressive freshmen in fall camp last year, joined by Steven Campbell in the rotation.
4. Kansas State -- Tysyn Hartman has loads of experience and is one of the Wildcats that Bill Snyder loves to rave about. Ty Zimmerman was one of the Big 12's best freshman last year, and picked off three passes. They should be solid again next year, and for as much criticism as K-State's defense faced last year, they were fifth in the Big 12 in pass defense. Logan Dold should be in the rotation, too.
5. Oklahoma -- Reserve Sam Proctor has starting experience, but Javon Harris and Aaron Colvin enter fall camp as starters. That says plenty about how Bob Stoops and Brent Venables feel about them. In a word: confident. Colvin has the most potential in the group, but the two starters will have to learn on the go. Proctor, a senior, should be able to help. James Haynes will also be in the rotation.
6. Missouri -- Jasper Simmons is gone, but Missouri's safeties might be a bit underrated in this spot. Kenji Jackson has loads of experience and should be solid, and Tavon Bolden and Matt White are a pair of promising sophomores who should compete at free safety. Kenronte Walker should be in the rotation, too.
7. Texas Tech -- Injuries were a problem last year for the Tech secondary, but Cody Davis and D.J. Johnson will hold down the traditional safety spots away from the line of scrimmage in new coordinator Chad Glasgow's 4-2-5. The unit gave up lots of big plays in 2010 (151 over 10 yards, 46 over 20, and 25 over 30, all the most in the Big 12), but I'd expect that number to drop under Glasgow if the secondary stays healthy. Davis is the team's leading returning tackler, with 87 stops. Brett Dewhurst and Giorgio Durham should be in the rotation.
8. Kansas -- Keeston Terry and Bradley McDougald give Kansas a lot of speed and athletic ability at the position, but both of the team's safeties from 2010 graduated and Terry and McDougald are short on experience. Lubbock Smith should add some solid depth to the position.
9. Iowa State -- Iowa State loses their top playmaker at the position, David Sims, but returns starter Ter'Ran Benton. He'll be helped out by some combination of Jacques Washington, Earl Brooks and Deon Broomfield once the season starts. Iowa State's biggest weakness is on the defensive line, so it's hard to get a good read on how good the safeties really are with such a poor pass rush up front.
10. Baylor -- This group might move up the list during the year under Phil Bennett, but the two best raw athletes (Ahmad Dixon, Prince Kent) at the position moved to nickel back and linebacker, respectively. The team's leading tackler, Byron Landor, graduated, and that left Mike Hicks as the other starter. He'll be helped out at safety by Sam Holl, Josh Wilson and K.J. Morton. Last year, the Bears ranked last in the Big 12 in pass defense in conference play, giving up over 300 yards a game. That'll have to change or Baylor won't get past seven wins.
Here's what we've covered so far:
The group of safeties across the Big 12 isn't fantastic, without any truly elite groups, but it's decent. There aren't any teams that look really hopeless at the position in the immediate future.
I haven't given it real close examination so far on the positions we haven't covered yet, but this is by far the closest gap between 1-10 of any position so far.
Here's how I ranked them. (Remember, I lumped in nickel backs with linebackers, so Ahmad Dixon and Tony Jefferson won't be found anywhere in this post.)
[+] Enlarge
John Rieger/US PRESSWIREOklahoma State's Markelle Martin is the Big 12's best overall safety.
John Rieger/US PRESSWIREOklahoma State's Markelle Martin is the Big 12's best overall safety.2. Texas -- Blake Gideon takes his share of criticism, a good deal of it fair, but there's a reason he's starting for Texas for a fourth season this fall. He knows what he's doing. Kenny Vaccaro will challenge OSU's Martin, among others, for the title of the Big 12's biggest hitter and Nolan Brewster and Christian Scott are strong reserves at the position. The Longhorns lose a lot at corner, but all the safeties are back from a defense that allowed just over 170 yards a game through the air in conference play last season.
3. Texas A&M -- The Aggies' Steven Terrell and Trent Hunter are solid, and Hunter is a big playmaker who made 62 stops and picked off two passes last year. Toney Hurd Jr. is the backup and was one of the most impressive freshmen in fall camp last year, joined by Steven Campbell in the rotation.
4. Kansas State -- Tysyn Hartman has loads of experience and is one of the Wildcats that Bill Snyder loves to rave about. Ty Zimmerman was one of the Big 12's best freshman last year, and picked off three passes. They should be solid again next year, and for as much criticism as K-State's defense faced last year, they were fifth in the Big 12 in pass defense. Logan Dold should be in the rotation, too.
5. Oklahoma -- Reserve Sam Proctor has starting experience, but Javon Harris and Aaron Colvin enter fall camp as starters. That says plenty about how Bob Stoops and Brent Venables feel about them. In a word: confident. Colvin has the most potential in the group, but the two starters will have to learn on the go. Proctor, a senior, should be able to help. James Haynes will also be in the rotation.
6. Missouri -- Jasper Simmons is gone, but Missouri's safeties might be a bit underrated in this spot. Kenji Jackson has loads of experience and should be solid, and Tavon Bolden and Matt White are a pair of promising sophomores who should compete at free safety. Kenronte Walker should be in the rotation, too.
7. Texas Tech -- Injuries were a problem last year for the Tech secondary, but Cody Davis and D.J. Johnson will hold down the traditional safety spots away from the line of scrimmage in new coordinator Chad Glasgow's 4-2-5. The unit gave up lots of big plays in 2010 (151 over 10 yards, 46 over 20, and 25 over 30, all the most in the Big 12), but I'd expect that number to drop under Glasgow if the secondary stays healthy. Davis is the team's leading returning tackler, with 87 stops. Brett Dewhurst and Giorgio Durham should be in the rotation.
8. Kansas -- Keeston Terry and Bradley McDougald give Kansas a lot of speed and athletic ability at the position, but both of the team's safeties from 2010 graduated and Terry and McDougald are short on experience. Lubbock Smith should add some solid depth to the position.
9. Iowa State -- Iowa State loses their top playmaker at the position, David Sims, but returns starter Ter'Ran Benton. He'll be helped out by some combination of Jacques Washington, Earl Brooks and Deon Broomfield once the season starts. Iowa State's biggest weakness is on the defensive line, so it's hard to get a good read on how good the safeties really are with such a poor pass rush up front.
10. Baylor -- This group might move up the list during the year under Phil Bennett, but the two best raw athletes (Ahmad Dixon, Prince Kent) at the position moved to nickel back and linebacker, respectively. The team's leading tackler, Byron Landor, graduated, and that left Mike Hicks as the other starter. He'll be helped out at safety by Sam Holl, Josh Wilson and K.J. Morton. Last year, the Bears ranked last in the Big 12 in pass defense in conference play, giving up over 300 yards a game. That'll have to change or Baylor won't get past seven wins.
Lunch links: Weighing in on Washington
September, 2, 2010
9/02/10
12:00
PM ET
By
David Ubben | ESPN.com
So, the season's like seven hours away. That's pretty good.
- The mother of suspended Missouri running back Derrick Washington says she was told her son would be welcomed back to the program if he cleared his name in the legal process, reports Mike DeArmond of the Kansas City Star.
- The Star's Sam Mellinger says the ghost of Ricky Clemons led the Tigers to boot Washington off the team too early.
- Text messages from his coaches helped motivate Texas' new starting running back Cody Johnson to improve his fitness over the summer, writes Laken Litman of the Dallas Morning News.
- Iowa State's defense knows it'll be facing a challenge in Northern Illinois running back Chad Spann tonight, writes Kelly Beaton of the Cedar Falls Courier.
- Despite shifting quarterbacks often, the exchange with the center hasn't been a problem at Nebraska.
- The drug charge looming over Oklahoma State safety Victor Johnson has been dropped.
- Colorado defensive end Marquez Herrod remembers the Colorado State players who celebrated on the field last season after their win. And he's not happy about it, writes Tom Kensler of The Denver Post.
- Ax those rumors about a matchup with newly independent BYU for the Red Raiders, reports Don Williams of the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal.
- Kansas State running back Daniel Thomas will get all the carries he can handle this season, reports austin Meek of the Topeka Capital-Journal.
- Tyrell Higgins is part of an elite group at Texas after leaving the team, coming back as a walk-on, re-earning his scholarship and now becoming a starter at defensive tackle, reports Alan Trubow of the Austin American-Statesman.
- For Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin, the wait is almost over, writes Brice Cherry of the Waco Tribune-Herald.
- Kansas is ready to step into one of the toughest Septembers in school history, writes J. Brady McCollough of the Kansas City Star.
- Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller would like the last laugh after a light-hearted preseason, writes Brent Zwerneman of the San Antonio Express-News.
Lunch links: Detailing Nebraska's exit
August, 31, 2010
8/31/10
12:00
PM ET
By
David Ubben | ESPN.com
Cole Hazard just got a call saying he has 89 minutes left to live ... from himself.
- Nebraska wasn't on the Big Ten's original list of targets, and the school was generally happy in the Big 12 before being warned by a tipster in January that they could be left out of a major conference if realignment occurred. This and more in a comprehensive look back at Nebraska's decision to move to the Big Ten from the Omaha World Herald's Henry J. Cordes. This is a must read, and the details from the May 25 meeting between Tom Osborne, Harvey Perlman and Jim Delany are straight out of a spy movie. Cordes' account is the most definitive take to date of the most impactful conference realignment move of the summer.
- Be ready for lots of substitutions for Texas Tech on defense, reports Don Williams of the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal.
- An attorney for Missouri running back Derrick Washington says Washington was never served the order of protection filed against him by the victim who alleges sexual assault.
- Texas A&M will be without defensive lineman Stephen Barrera for the 2010 season after the sophomore suffered a hip injury.
- Texas coach Mack Brown says Vince Young deserves Reggie Bush's vacated Heisman. I disagree. Here are my thoughts from when USC first gave back its trophy.
- Oklahoma defensive tackle Adrian Taylor may suit up in the season opener, just nine months after a gruesome dislocated ankle.
- Meanwhile, coach Bob Stoops says tough nonconference schedules have become "high-risk, low-reward." Berry Tramel of the Oklahoman says Stoops is misguided and suffering from short-term memory loss.
- Jesse Newell at the Lawrence Journal-World chronicles Steven Johnson's lengthy journey from little-used linebacker to starter for the Jayhawks.
- It's all there for the Aggies. All the pieces necessary for a Big 12 title run. Can they put them together? Brent Zwerneman of the San Antonio Express-News asks a few players and coaches.
- Colorado is still working on its exit date from the Big 12 into the Pac-10, reports John Henderson of the Denver Post.
- Oklahoma State DE Jamie Blatnick and S Victor Johnson's status for Saturday's opener is unclear, and two running backs have left the program, reports Bill Haisten of the Tulsa World.
- Baylor is ready for its first test, writes John Werner of the Waco Tribune-Herald.
Lunch links: Corso, Herbstreit pick Big 12
August, 20, 2010
8/20/10
12:30
PM ET
By
David Ubben | ESPN.com
"You work in a business. Businesspeople need beepers."
"No, they need cellphones."
"Yeah, right now, but the beeper's gonna be making a comeback. Technology's cyclical."
"No, they need cellphones."
"Yeah, right now, but the beeper's gonna be making a comeback. Technology's cyclical."
- Lee Corso and Kirk Herbstreit agree: Oklahoma and Nebraska will play for the Big 12 title.
- Missouri's defense wants 35 turnovers in 2010, reports Dieter Kurtenbach of the Columbia Missourian. It forced 23 last year.
- Texas Tech players don't miss the sand pit outside the practice field some of them got to know well, writes Don Williams of the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal.
- Texas isn't messing around with its upcoming schedules. The Longhorns announced a home-and-home agreement with BYU in 2013 and 2014, in addition to a game next season in Austin. The Longhorns also added Notre Dame to their future schedule recently.
- The Longhorns can run the ball all they want, but the hope for 2010 rests with Garrett Gilbert, writes the Statesman's Cedric Golden.
- Former Red Raiders lineman Brandon Carter has a new look for the NFL, but the face paint is still a part of him. He still wants to be a pro wrestler, writes Jordan Godwin of the Houston Chronicle.
- Tom Shatel of the Omaha World-Herald learned some lessons with the recent media fiasco. He shares them in his blog.
- Life as a football player is pretty difficult if you're allergic to milk and you don't know it. Ask Iowa State's Jake McDonough. The Des Moines Register's Randy Peterson did.
- Landry Jones wasn't happy with his performance in Oklahoma's scrimmage on Thursday.
- The highlight of Colorado's scrimmage on Thursday? The running game, reports the Denver Post's Tom Kensler.
- Without Jeron Mastrud, there's a battle at tight end at Kansas State, reports Brady Bauman of the Manhattan Mercury.
- Oklahoma State's Victor Johnson and Jamie Blatnick have become close with a pair of Stairmasters, writes John Helsley of The Oklahoman.
- Tom Keegan of the Lawrence Journal-World explains why moving Toben Opurum to linebacker is a gamble.
- Texas A&M free safety Steven Terrell's camp is off to a good start, reports Robert Cessna of the Bryan-College Station Eagle.
Lunch links: No fight over Huskers' fees
July, 27, 2010
7/27/10
12:30
PM ET
By
David Ubben | ESPN.com
To be clear, I'm a towering 5-foot-8. In the Big 12 that translates to a slightly undersized cornerback. That's not a quote from anything, just a fact.
- Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe says the odds on a legal fight over Nebraska's withdrawal fee are "zero," writes Lee Barfknecht of the Omaha World-Herald.
- Baylor linebacker Antonio Johnson guaranteed a win over Oklahoma and/or Texas this season, reports Jake Trotter of The Oklahoman.
- Nebraska's players showed up to media days with bracelets that read ":01" and "Finish."
- Colorado leaving the Big 12 in 2011 is inching closer toward reality from formality, reports Kyle Ringo of the Boulder Daily Camera.
- Nebraska RB signee Braylon Heard likely won't be enrolled for camp this fall, reports Brian Christopherson of the Lincoln Journal Star.
- Todd Reesing's career is being made into a book for release very soon, according to Kansas' website.
- If asked, Nebraska AD Tom Osborne will speak at Big Ten media days.
- Nebraska receiver Niles Paul held a team meeting, apologized, collected a few hugs and moved on from his legal issues this offseason, writes Jon Nyatawa of the Omaha World-Herald.
- One of Oklahoma State's top safeties, Victor Johnson, was arrested and will be charged with possession of marijuana, reports Bill Haisten of the Tulsa World.
- Iowa State's Rashawn Parker and Alexander Robinson took part in a pancake-eating contest on Sunday night in Dallas, writes Bobby La Gesse of the Ames Tribune.
Big 12 mailbag: Can OSU rebound after recent defensive struggles?
September, 25, 2009
9/25/09
5:00
PM ET
By Tim Griffin | ESPN.com
Posted by ESPN.com's Tim Griffin
Steve Johnson from Oklahoma City writes: Tim, what has happened to the Oklahoma State defense? Everybody was talking about them like they were the second coming of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ “Steel Curtain” after their effort against Georgia in the opener. And then, it’s like they’ve forgotten how to cover passes and make tackles. What do you make of this and do you think that the importance of Bill Young was overrated coming into the season?
Tim Griffin: I’ve been kind of wondering what happened to Oklahoma State’s pass defense the last two weeks, too. The Cowboys played so well in that first game that I expected some carryover.
Despite that strong debut, they then were blistered by Houston’s Case Keenum and Rice had some passing success against them too. Part of that was caused by Perrish Cox’s injury and the fact that safeties Johnny Thomas and Victor Johnson were out.
One of Young’s biggest aims was boosting Oklahoma State’s pass rush. The Cowboys produced two sacks against Georgia, but have only produced two sacks in the last two games combined.
A key for their pass defense will be getting an effective pass rush. That should improve as defensive end Richetti Jones gets healthy and defensive end Jeremiah Price returns to the lineup from his hand injury.
The Cowboys shouldn’t be tested by Grambling quarterback Greg Dillon on Saturday. And then Oklahoma State has a week off before starting Big 12 play.
Getting the pass defense fixed will be Young’s first concern, considering the Cowboys’ early Big 12 schedule. They will face big challenges in their first top four games as they face Texas A&M (sixth in passing), Missouri (19th nationally), Baylor (with the multi-talented but struggling Robert Griffin) and Texas (13th nationally). Their performance in those four games will determine if all of the hype about the Cowboys coming into the season was deserved or not.
And no, I don’t think that importance of Young’s hiring for the Cowboys was overrated. I think we’ll see why over the next several weeks.
Tommy from Omaha, Neb., writes: Tim, there was a lot of controversy about the Big 12 Conference being overrated after the first couple of weeks of the season after Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Nebraska lost and Colorado couldn’t beat anybody. But with Florida's struggles against Tennessee, Mississippi's loss to unranked South Carolina, and Georgia's loss to Oklahoma St., doesn't that seemingly suggest that maybe the SEC is not exactly up to par either? Or do you think that college football is just getting more competitive? When you look around the country and see USC, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma losing games in the first few weeks of the season it would seem that it’s not just the Big 12 that is struggling. What do you make of it?
Tim Griffin: I agree with your point. Almost every conference has had several key losses during the non-conference part of their schedule. The SEC hasn’t shown in some nationally televised games. But that seems to be symptomatic in college football these days.
Other than Florida, Texas and Alabama, I haven’t seen many teams that have knocked my socks off. I might throw Miami and Houston in as other teams that have really impressed me. But I think that speaks to the parity of college football. More teams are capable of winning games and making the supposedly better team look bad.
Some might think that isn't good for the sport. But I just believe it will make for a more competitive season with a lot of interesting upsets throughout the year.
Corey from Liberty, Mo., writes:How are you going to sit there and say that Zac Lee isn’t hot? Blacksburg is a tough place to play and everybody else on the Cornhuskers played bad anyway. One game doesn’t define a player.
Tim Griffin:Corey, I was just making a statistical judgment from what Lee produced in that game. And the fact that he passed for 136 yards, which led to the lowest passing production for the Cornhuskers in 20 games, I thought qualified him as struggling.
Of course, he can turn things around and have a big game against Louisiana-Lafayette. That could get him just as easily on the hot list next week.
Ron Sestak from St. Louis, Mo., writes: Tim, quick couple of questions for you. Who have been your biggest surprise as a player so far this season and who has been your biggest disappointment?
Tim Griffin:It’s hard to narrow that to only player, so I’ll give you a couple. As far as the biggest surprise, I’ll pick Kansas defensive end Maxwell Onyegbule, who has morphed into the second coming of Julius Peppers despite never starting a game before this season. Another big surprise for me is Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert, who I thought would be productive but not nearly as much as he’s shown over the first three games. One of my biggest early disappointments start has been Robert Griffin of Baylor. He started with a victory over Wake Forest where his most notable play was a quick kick. And then he struggled through the worst game of his career last week against Connecticut. The Bears’ bowl hopes are toast unless he picks things up. And I’ll also add Darrell Scott of Colorado, who I thought was ready for a breakthrough season. I know he was injured last week. But he still has accounted for nearly four times as many kickoff return yards as he has rushing yards. That’s not a good sign for Dan Hawkins’ future job security.
Jack Sturgis from Lenexa, Kan., writes:Tim, I saw where you mentioned Brandon Banks’ early struggles this season for Kansas State. He hasn’t been the deep threat that me and all of the other Catbackers hoped he would be. Do you have any reason for this? Is he injured and we don’t know about it?
Tim Griffin: I, too, have been a little surprised with Banks’ slow start. I’ve only had a chance to watch a little bit of one of their games this season, but I know that it seemed like UCLA was paying a lot of attention to him in its pass defense.
Banks’ numbers of receptions are high, but his yard-per-catch average is down from 15.7 last season to 8.3 this season.
I think the biggest reason for his decline might be in the comparison of the quarterbacks throwing to him from last season to this season. Josh Freeman had a big arm and the Wildcats favored a more vertical passing game than this season with Carson Coffman throwing. That may be the major reason for his supposed struggles so far.
Let’s look at the numbers he produces tomorrow against Tennessee Tech. A big game might indicate that the first three games are just a statistical aberration. But if he struggles again against the Golden Eagles, it might be indicative of a bigger problem.
Thomas Knobloch from Dallas, Texas, writes: Tim, I’m not sure your effectiveness rankings are very meaningful. Your formula treats all possessions equally while that assumption couldn't be further from the truth. I do like the point you are trying to get to though. Maybe adding a starting field position component to the equation would help. For conference games, you could also add a component that accounted for quality of opponent. A scoring drive against ISU at home isn't as meaningful as a scoring drive against OU in Norman. This type of analysis seems relatively meaningless week-by-week due to the small sample size, but over the course of a season, it could prove valid.
Tim Griffin: Thomas, I appreciate your observations. But remember, I’m not trying to develop a cure for the common cold or world hunger here. I just wanted a simple, relatively meaningful gauge of offensive and defensive effectiveness. And my point is this: Isn’t an offense’s goal every time it takes the field to ultimately try and score points? And isn’t a defense’s goal to stop them from scoring? That’s what I feel this measurement gauges, even if you are playing USC or Slippery Rock. I think the figures will be more meaningful over the course of a season. And I also think we’ll be able to get a pretty good picture of effectiveness of Big 12 teams once we use just the figures from conference games, which I’m planning to do.
Thanks again for all of the good questions again this week. We’ll catch up again next Tuesday.
Steve Johnson from Oklahoma City writes: Tim, what has happened to the Oklahoma State defense? Everybody was talking about them like they were the second coming of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ “Steel Curtain” after their effort against Georgia in the opener. And then, it’s like they’ve forgotten how to cover passes and make tackles. What do you make of this and do you think that the importance of Bill Young was overrated coming into the season?
Tim Griffin: I’ve been kind of wondering what happened to Oklahoma State’s pass defense the last two weeks, too. The Cowboys played so well in that first game that I expected some carryover.
Despite that strong debut, they then were blistered by Houston’s Case Keenum and Rice had some passing success against them too. Part of that was caused by Perrish Cox’s injury and the fact that safeties Johnny Thomas and Victor Johnson were out.
One of Young’s biggest aims was boosting Oklahoma State’s pass rush. The Cowboys produced two sacks against Georgia, but have only produced two sacks in the last two games combined.
A key for their pass defense will be getting an effective pass rush. That should improve as defensive end Richetti Jones gets healthy and defensive end Jeremiah Price returns to the lineup from his hand injury.
The Cowboys shouldn’t be tested by Grambling quarterback Greg Dillon on Saturday. And then Oklahoma State has a week off before starting Big 12 play.
Getting the pass defense fixed will be Young’s first concern, considering the Cowboys’ early Big 12 schedule. They will face big challenges in their first top four games as they face Texas A&M (sixth in passing), Missouri (19th nationally), Baylor (with the multi-talented but struggling Robert Griffin) and Texas (13th nationally). Their performance in those four games will determine if all of the hype about the Cowboys coming into the season was deserved or not.
And no, I don’t think that importance of Young’s hiring for the Cowboys was overrated. I think we’ll see why over the next several weeks.
Tommy from Omaha, Neb., writes: Tim, there was a lot of controversy about the Big 12 Conference being overrated after the first couple of weeks of the season after Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Nebraska lost and Colorado couldn’t beat anybody. But with Florida's struggles against Tennessee, Mississippi's loss to unranked South Carolina, and Georgia's loss to Oklahoma St., doesn't that seemingly suggest that maybe the SEC is not exactly up to par either? Or do you think that college football is just getting more competitive? When you look around the country and see USC, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma losing games in the first few weeks of the season it would seem that it’s not just the Big 12 that is struggling. What do you make of it?
Tim Griffin: I agree with your point. Almost every conference has had several key losses during the non-conference part of their schedule. The SEC hasn’t shown in some nationally televised games. But that seems to be symptomatic in college football these days.
Other than Florida, Texas and Alabama, I haven’t seen many teams that have knocked my socks off. I might throw Miami and Houston in as other teams that have really impressed me. But I think that speaks to the parity of college football. More teams are capable of winning games and making the supposedly better team look bad.
Some might think that isn't good for the sport. But I just believe it will make for a more competitive season with a lot of interesting upsets throughout the year.
Corey from Liberty, Mo., writes:How are you going to sit there and say that Zac Lee isn’t hot? Blacksburg is a tough place to play and everybody else on the Cornhuskers played bad anyway. One game doesn’t define a player.
Tim Griffin:Corey, I was just making a statistical judgment from what Lee produced in that game. And the fact that he passed for 136 yards, which led to the lowest passing production for the Cornhuskers in 20 games, I thought qualified him as struggling.
Of course, he can turn things around and have a big game against Louisiana-Lafayette. That could get him just as easily on the hot list next week.
Ron Sestak from St. Louis, Mo., writes: Tim, quick couple of questions for you. Who have been your biggest surprise as a player so far this season and who has been your biggest disappointment?
Tim Griffin:It’s hard to narrow that to only player, so I’ll give you a couple. As far as the biggest surprise, I’ll pick Kansas defensive end Maxwell Onyegbule, who has morphed into the second coming of Julius Peppers despite never starting a game before this season. Another big surprise for me is Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert, who I thought would be productive but not nearly as much as he’s shown over the first three games. One of my biggest early disappointments start has been Robert Griffin of Baylor. He started with a victory over Wake Forest where his most notable play was a quick kick. And then he struggled through the worst game of his career last week against Connecticut. The Bears’ bowl hopes are toast unless he picks things up. And I’ll also add Darrell Scott of Colorado, who I thought was ready for a breakthrough season. I know he was injured last week. But he still has accounted for nearly four times as many kickoff return yards as he has rushing yards. That’s not a good sign for Dan Hawkins’ future job security.
Jack Sturgis from Lenexa, Kan., writes:Tim, I saw where you mentioned Brandon Banks’ early struggles this season for Kansas State. He hasn’t been the deep threat that me and all of the other Catbackers hoped he would be. Do you have any reason for this? Is he injured and we don’t know about it?
Tim Griffin: I, too, have been a little surprised with Banks’ slow start. I’ve only had a chance to watch a little bit of one of their games this season, but I know that it seemed like UCLA was paying a lot of attention to him in its pass defense.
Banks’ numbers of receptions are high, but his yard-per-catch average is down from 15.7 last season to 8.3 this season.
I think the biggest reason for his decline might be in the comparison of the quarterbacks throwing to him from last season to this season. Josh Freeman had a big arm and the Wildcats favored a more vertical passing game than this season with Carson Coffman throwing. That may be the major reason for his supposed struggles so far.
Let’s look at the numbers he produces tomorrow against Tennessee Tech. A big game might indicate that the first three games are just a statistical aberration. But if he struggles again against the Golden Eagles, it might be indicative of a bigger problem.
Thomas Knobloch from Dallas, Texas, writes: Tim, I’m not sure your effectiveness rankings are very meaningful. Your formula treats all possessions equally while that assumption couldn't be further from the truth. I do like the point you are trying to get to though. Maybe adding a starting field position component to the equation would help. For conference games, you could also add a component that accounted for quality of opponent. A scoring drive against ISU at home isn't as meaningful as a scoring drive against OU in Norman. This type of analysis seems relatively meaningless week-by-week due to the small sample size, but over the course of a season, it could prove valid.
Tim Griffin: Thomas, I appreciate your observations. But remember, I’m not trying to develop a cure for the common cold or world hunger here. I just wanted a simple, relatively meaningful gauge of offensive and defensive effectiveness. And my point is this: Isn’t an offense’s goal every time it takes the field to ultimately try and score points? And isn’t a defense’s goal to stop them from scoring? That’s what I feel this measurement gauges, even if you are playing USC or Slippery Rock. I think the figures will be more meaningful over the course of a season. And I also think we’ll be able to get a pretty good picture of effectiveness of Big 12 teams once we use just the figures from conference games, which I’m planning to do.
Thanks again for all of the good questions again this week. We’ll catch up again next Tuesday.
OSU bracing for Houston's air attack
September, 12, 2009
9/12/09
3:04
PM ET
By Tim Griffin | ESPN.com
Posted by ESPN.com's Tim Griffin
Oklahoma State's defense was the major reason the Cowboys notched an impressive season-opening victory over Georgia.
The Cowboys will be facing another kind of challenge this week against Case Keenum, who passed for 359 yards and four touchdowns in last week's victory over Northwestern State.
Georgia was about as subtle as a punch in the stomach as it attempted to bull through the Cowboys. And after an 80-yard drive to start the game, the Bulldogs produced only 177 yards for the rest of the game.
Oklahoma State's defensive could be influenced the status of their starting safeties. Victor Johnson or Johnny Thomas will start at strong safety for Markelle Martin, who is hobbled with an undisclosed injury. And Oklahoma State free safety Lucien "The Punisher" Antoine told me after last week's game that he was sore, but expects to play today.
I just looked at Antoine going through his warmups with his teammates before the game. He looks ready to play.
One key player that Oklahoma State will have to account for is freshman running back Charles Sims, who had a breakthrough game for the Cougars last week. Sims produced six receptions for 128 yards.
Houston offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen will likely try to isolate Sims against the slower Oklahoma State linebackers.
Oklahoma State's defense was the major reason the Cowboys notched an impressive season-opening victory over Georgia.
The Cowboys will be facing another kind of challenge this week against Case Keenum, who passed for 359 yards and four touchdowns in last week's victory over Northwestern State.
Georgia was about as subtle as a punch in the stomach as it attempted to bull through the Cowboys. And after an 80-yard drive to start the game, the Bulldogs produced only 177 yards for the rest of the game.
Oklahoma State's defensive could be influenced the status of their starting safeties. Victor Johnson or Johnny Thomas will start at strong safety for Markelle Martin, who is hobbled with an undisclosed injury. And Oklahoma State free safety Lucien "The Punisher" Antoine told me after last week's game that he was sore, but expects to play today.
I just looked at Antoine going through his warmups with his teammates before the game. He looks ready to play.
One key player that Oklahoma State will have to account for is freshman running back Charles Sims, who had a breakthrough game for the Cougars last week. Sims produced six receptions for 128 yards.
Houston offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen will likely try to isolate Sims against the slower Oklahoma State linebackers.
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