ESPN College Football

Pac-12 blogger Ted Miller pointed me to a Cal fan blog that takes a new look at how to rate quarterbacks.

The blog uses a formula founded by Utah State sports economist David Berri that is designed to improve upon the the standard passer efficiency rating. Berri's formula is called "QB Score" and it has the following equation: QB Score = Total Yards - (3 x Plays) - (50 x Turnovers).

As the blog explains:

"The traditional passer efficiency rating tends to take on a 'more is better' approach: if players throw a bunch of TDs and hundreds of yards, they can get away with a fairly high turnover rate. Berri's measure has a different philosophy: if you generate yards and avoid turnovers, you will be rewarded."

I like this, because one of a quarterback's main jobs is to avoid turning the ball over, and some guys rack up stats when their team is hopelessly behind and they need to pass all the time.

Anyway, the site lists the QB score for every FBS quarterback last season, along with their passer efficiency rating. Let's take a look at the Big East results.

According to the QB Score rating, West Virginia's Geno Smith had the best season of Big East quarterbacks, with a 496 score. That jibes with my opinion that Smith was the best quarterback in the league last year.

In second place, somewhat surprisingly, was Louisville's Adam Froman at 346. But Froman did a good job of managing games and posted an 11-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio before getting injured.

Pittsburgh's Tino Sunseri was third with a 133 score. And then after that, every Big East quarterback had a negative score, which tells you again about how lackluster the league offenses were in 2010.

Zach Collaros, whom the coaches picked as the conference's first-team quarterback, finished 10th in QB Score, behind Zach Frazer, Bobby Eveld and Tom Savage. Collaros did have the highest passer efficiency rating, but he also threw 14 interceptions.

Not surprisingly, given the weight QB Score puts on turnovers, South Florida's B.J. Daniels finished last among the 12 quarterbacks ranked in this formula.

What do you think? Is this a useful tool to judge quarterback play?

Louisville quarterbacks coach Mike Groh is expected to take a job on Nick Saban's staff at Alabama.

Groh, the son of former Virginia head coach and current Georgia Tech defensive coordinator Al Groh, spent one year with the Cardinals under Charlie Strong. Under his tutelage, seniors Adam Froman and Justin Burke each showed improvement this year and won big games for the team.

Louisville needs someone to get the most out of its quarterbacks in 2011. Senior Will Stein, a former walk-on, is the only player on the roster with any experience at the position. True freshman Teddy Bridgewater, who is enrolled and will participate in spring practice, will compete for the starting job right away.

Groh would be the first assistant to leave Strong's staff since arriving at Louisville. He would replace Curt Cignetti, who is the brother of former Pitt and current Rutgers offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti. Curt took the head coaching job at Indiana University of Pennsylvania last month.

Three keys for Louisville against Southern Miss in the Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl on Tuesday night:

1. Establish Bilal Powell: Cardinals coach Charlie Strong calls his senior-led offensive line the backbone of the team, and he believes they can run on anybody. Southern Miss finished 13th nationally against the run this year, allowing just 113 yards per game on the ground with 300-pound run stuffers like John Henderson and Anthony Gray in the middle up front. Louisville's offense usually goes as running back Powell goes, and the more successful he is, the more Southern Miss's offense has to stay on the sidelines.

2. Make something happen in the passing game: Adam Froman started the first eight games at quarterback and played pretty well before suffering a deep thigh bruise. Justin Burke took over for the final four games before getting injured himself in the finale at Rutgers. Both should be ready for Tuesday night, and offensive coordinator Mike Sanford said he expects both seniors to play. Louisville's passing game didn't do much the final month or so of the season, but the opportunities should be there against a Golden Eagles' defense that ranks 103rd nationally against the pass. Whoever is in at quarterback needs to take advantage and avoid mistakes, because beating Southern Miss will probably require a score somewhere in the high 20s or more.

3. Contain Austin Davis: The Golden Eagles rely a lot on Davis, their quarterback. He has close to 3,000 yards passing and is third on the team in rushing. Play the pass too much, and he'll slip in a few big gains on the zone-read play. Louisville has done an excellent job all year of applying pressure from confusing angles in defensive coordinator Vance Bedford's scheme. The pressure has to get to Davis and not let him bust free, or he can do some serious damage.

Louisville is in Florida for a bowl game, and the Cardinals have done some serious business recruiting in that state.

A pair of ESPNU 150 teammates from Miami's Northwestern High School have committed to coach Charlie Strong. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater -- rated as the No. 8 signal-caller in the Class of 2011 -- chose the Cards after decommitting from Miami after the Hurricanes fired Randy Shannon. The 6-foot-2 Bridgewater passed for 2,606 yards and 22 touchdowns as a senior, while rushing for 223 yards and eight scores.

One of Bridgewater's prep receivers, Eli Rogers, also dropped Miami for Louisville. The 5-foot-10 Rogers caught 35 passes for 551 yards this season and is ranked as the No. 20 receiver in his class.

Louisville loses senior quarterbacks Adam Froman and Justin Burke this year. It now has two potential future stars coming in this class with Bridgewater and DaMarcus Smith. The quarterback battle for the 2011 season should be fascinating to watch.

Charlie Strong's first season with the Louisville Cardinals got off to an inauspicious beginning.

In the season opener, Kentucky needed just two plays to score a touchdown. Strong remembers talking to defensive coordinator Vance Bedford over the headset and saying, "This is going to be a long season."

But the Cardinals kept improving and finished with a 6-6 record that most people didn't think was possible. They will be bowling for the first time since the 2006 season when they take on Southern Miss in the Dec. 21 Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl.

Strong has received a lot of credit, and was named Big East co-coach of the year along with Connecticut's Randy Edsall. But he says the team's seniors deserve the recognition.

"The reason we're in a bowl game is because our 25 seniors decided to lead this football team," he said. "We made tremendous strides because of the leadership of our seniors. I didn't set any goals in terms of wins or losses; I just wanted to put a product on the field everybody would be pleased and happy with. Each game we got better and better."

The turning point this season, Strong said, came in the third quarter of the third game at Oregon State. Louisville trailed 35-14, and Strong said he called the defense together on the sideline.

"Guys," he said, "we're not going to get embarrassed out here, so you'd better start playing."

After that, Oregon State didn't score again, and the Cardinals got two touchdowns to get back into the game. They failed to tie it up on the final drive, but they learned that day that they could be competitive.

"You could see it right then," Strong said. "I told them, from here out, there's no reason we can't go play."

Strong couldn't say enough about his seniors at a news conference on Monday, and he has to make a choice between two seniors as his starting quarterback for the bowl game.

He said Justin Burke, who started the final four games after Adam Froman injured a thigh muscle, is the starter. But Froman is practicing, and both should be available to play against Southern Miss. He said he is comfortable with either one, or junior Will Stein, who filled in for an injured Burke in the season finale at Rutgers.

This is the first season Strong has been a head coach, but it's not his first bowl game in that role. He was interim coach for Florida after Ron Zook got fired and Strong led the Gators in a Peach Bowl loss to Miami in 2004.

"That was a really tough bowl experience," he said.

Speaking of Florida and Miami, Strong's name popped up in the searches for new coaches at both those schools. While Strong didn't say whether he was contacted by either school, he said he wasn't interested in either job and that he was "locked into" Louisville.

"An AD hired me and gave me the keys to this program, and I owe him a lot," Strong said. "I will never, ever chase a job. I'm totally committed to this job here.

"I don't see myself walking out on a program in one year to go chase another job. I have a really good job here."

Strong has done a really good job in just one year at Louisville. It could be the start of something big.

"We said, let's just get to a bowl game this year," he said. "And from then on, we'll take the program each year and make it better and better."

After three years of suffering through the Steve Kragthorpe years, Louisville fans would have been happy just to see their team look organized and fighting hard in every Big East game this season under new coach Charlie Strong.

So a 6-6 record and a Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl bid feels like a major achievement. Strong could have started fresh and ushered in new players and first-year guys that he recruited for a full-scale rebuilding project. Instead, he put the burden on previously undecorated seniors to get their program back to respectability. It paid off.

The Cardinals had the best offensive line in the league, anchored by four senior starters. They had one of the top running backs in the country in Bilal Powell, who more than tripled his previous best year as a senior. They had a senior quarterback in Adam Froman who efficiently ran the offense, and when he got hurt, another senior (Justin Burke) came in and kept things going. They had the league's best tight end in Cameron Graham, another senior.

On defense, Strong and Vance Bedford took a group lacking bulk or any surefire NFL prospects and turned it into one of the Big East's best. By the last month of the season, the same defense that looked so ragged in the preseason was stonewalling league opponents. Connecticut is going to a BCS game yet lost 26-0 to Louisville in October.

Strong used this year to establish toughness, winning attitudes and ultra-aggressiveness -- the latter of which backfired on him in overtime of the South Florida loss. Once he gets his kinds of players in the program, Louisville fans will be very happy.

Offensive MVP: Bilal Powell

Strong called his running back the face of the program before the season, and Powell validated that confidence by running for 1,330 and 10 touchdowns despite being slowed a few games with a knee injury. His blend of size and breakaway speed made Powell one of the most dangerous players in the conference and the country.

Defensive MVP: Johnny Patrick

The senior cornerback was the lockdown defender the Cardinals needed on the outside so they could bring pressure on quarterbacks. Patrick had five interceptions and led the league in pass breakups this season with 11.

Turning point: Oddly, Louisville never won back-to-back games against FBS opponents, though it was in every game. A 35-28 loss at Oregon State in Week 3 might have been the most important moment of the season. The players saw in that game that they could compete against a difficult opponent on the road and that Strong's system worked. Even in defeat, they won by starting to believe.

What's next: Louisville has the best bowl draw of any Big East team, facing Southern Miss in the Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl. The extra bowl practices are critical for developing younger players, because the Cardinals lose the vast majority of their offensive starters and several defensive stalwarts. Strong and his staff are recruiting like gangbusters, however. Job No. 1 this offseason is to determine a starting quarterback for 2011 with Froman and Burke graduating.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (8-4) vs. Louisville Cardinals (6-6)

Dec. 21, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Southern Miss take by nation blogger Andrea Adelson: The Golden Eagles beat eventual C-USA champion UCF earlier this year, but a pair of one-point losses to East Carolina and UAB kept them from winning the East. Still, they have the longest active bowl streak in Conference USA with nine straight, and have one hot quarterback in Austin Davis, who is playing his best football of the season.

The problem for Southern Miss of late has been its defense, which has given up way too many points. Four times in its final five games, the Golden Eagles gave up 30-plus points. That includes the 50-49 loss to UAB in overtime. The defense failed them as well against the Pirates at home earlier in the season. One thing about this team, though, they will be playing with plenty of inspiration.

Three players were shot following a fight at a club that spilled into the parking lot after the team returned home from its 31-21 win over UCF on Nov. 13. Linebacker Martez Smith was paralyzed from the waist down, while Tim Green cannot speak after reportedly being shot in the neck. Defensive end Dedrick Jones also was shot. The team wears a decal on its helmets in the shape of a heart with their decals inside. They are 1-1 since the shootings, winning an inspired game over Houston the week after it happened and losing the finale at Tulsa.

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Louisville take by Big East blogger Brian Bennett: The 6-6 record may not look impressive, but Charlie Strong worked wonders in his first year in Louisville.

Everyone picked the Cardinals to finish last in the Big East, and the team he inherited was roundly considered to have the least amount of talent in the league. But Strong and his staff got the most out of a previously underachieving group of seniors, with tailback Bilal Powell the prime example. Powell, who had never broke 400 yards in a season, erupted for 1,330 yards and 10 touchdowns behind a veteran offensive line.

It's on defense, though, where Strong truly made his mark. Despite lacking size or elite playmakers, the Cardinals finished 12th in the country in total defense while locking opponents down in the final month of the season.

Louisville was competitive in every game this season but needed to beat Rutgers in the finale to clinch its first bowl appearance since the 2006 season. Quarterback Adam Froman, who missed the final four games with a thigh injury, could be healed in time for this game. The Cardinals’ seniors are excited about playing in their first bowl, and they'll look to continue the Big East's recent domination of Conference USA in the postseason.

Louisville has made a lot of strides this year under first-year coach Charlie Strong. That much is undeniable. But unless the Cardinals can win at Rutgers on Friday, their season will end the same way it has the previous three years: at home without a bowl.

"Going to a bowl game would say we're taking major steps in trying to get this program back in the right direction," Strong said.

Of course, not many people projected that Louisville would make a postseason game this year. But if the 5-6 team fails to get there now, it would feel like a disappointment. The Cardinals were 5-4 after beating Syracuse two weeks ago, but since then they've dropped two straight games at home, including an overtime loss to South Florida in a game they led 14-3.

The pressure, then, is on. Strong called it "a one-game playoff." But he's trying not to put a burden on his players.

"What we have to do is prepare our guys," he said. "If we prepare our guys the right way, they'll feel no pressure."

Louisville has been in this situation before. Two years ago, it went to Piscataway with the same record, needing a win for bowl eligibility. It left with a humiliating 63-14 loss. Rutgers led 49-0 at halftime in perhaps the lowest of the many low points in the Steve Kragthorpe era.

That Scarlet Knights team, though, was on a roll late in the season. This one has lost four straight and is coming off its own embarrassing defeat, a 69-38 thrashing at Cincinnati on Saturday. By comparison, the Cardinals have far fewer issues.

One of their glaring issues, however, is revving up a flat offense. That offense produced just three points in last week's 17-10 loss to West Virginia and committed too many mistakes down the stretch in the overtime loss to South Florida.

The attack has become too one-dimensional, as the team has not passed for more than 146 yards in its last four games. Justin Burke will make his fourth straight start at quarterback Friday in place of still-injured Adam Froman. Still, one-dimensional is OK as long as that dimension is really powerful.

"We've got to get back to our bread and butter," Burke said. "We've got to run the football."

Star tailback Bilal Powell came down with the flu bug late last week and had no yards on just four carries against West Virginia. Strong said Powell should be healthy and ready to go Friday.

Getting to a bowl game would be a reward for Louisville's 27-man senior class, which has never experienced the postseason. And with all those players leaving after this season, the 15 extra bowl practices would help Strong get a jump start on preparing younger players to take over in 2011. Mostly, though, a bowl game would be a signal that things really have changed.

"It would put some hope back into this program," Strong said.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Justin Burke will start at quarterback for Louisville. Adam Froman warmed up but had a noticeable limp, and Burke took the snaps with the first-team offense in pregame.

West Virginia officials say Noel Devine had a great week of practices and looks as healthy as he has been since the LSU game. Let's see if he can have a breakout game.

The crowd is still very slow to trickle in here with only about 15 minutes before kickoff and Senior Day festivities about to begin. Hope both teams play with more urgency than the fans.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Greetings from Papa John's Cardinal Stadium, where it's a splendid fall day. Temperatures are expected to reach into the 60s under partly sunny skies.

It's Senior Day for Louisville, and this large class of 27 seniors has never experienced a bowl game. They can change that with a win over West Virginia, which would be the Cardinals' sixth of the season. These seniors have been vitally important to this year's improvement, from Bilal Powell to four starting offensive linemen, to quarterbacks Adam Froman and Justin Burke and on and on and on.

Speaking of quarterbacks, there's no word yet on who will start for Louisville, but Froman is in uniform and warming up, with a heavy wrap on his injured left leg.

This is a key game for West Virginia in the Big East race. The Mountaineers need to win out and get some help to take the league title. If they don't, the heat will rise to a stifling degree for head coach Bill Stewart. Fan disappointment is evident in the fact that the Mountaineers returned a large portion of their allotment to this game, unheard of for a late-season trip so close to Morgantown.

The game is officially a sellout, but parking lots were pretty empty less than two hours before the game. It could be a late arriving crowd. After all, it is basketball season here.

Losing a starting quarterback in the middle of the season is never easy. But Louisville had a nice backup plan when Adam Froman went down.

The Cardinals enjoyed the luxury of having another fifth-year senior and former starter on the bench and ready to go. Justin Burke has started the past two games and has thrown five touchdown passes against just one interception.

"It's pretty rare to have two five-year guys," Burke said.

Froman, who had been on crutches for two weeks while dealing with a deep thigh bruise, was back at practice Wednesday night, though he walked off the field with a noticeable limp. His official status for Saturday's West Virginia game won't be known until the Big East injury report is updated Thursday night.

But if Froman is sidelined again, the Cardinals feel comfortable with Burke, who started the first three games of last season before getting hurt. Though Burke hasn't thrown for more than 150 yards in either of the last two weeks, head coach Charlie Strong says he has done a good job of "coming in and just managing the offense."

Credit Burke for staying ready and focused. Given all he's been through, it would have been easy for him to have checked out mentally already.

The former Kentucky player of the year began his career at NC State but transferred to Louisville when it became clear he wouldn't start for the Wolfpack. He lost his job to Froman last year after the injury, then was beaten out in the summer for the starting duty this season. Burke has already graduated and is working on his MBA, and some nights he has to sprint out of practice a few minutes early to make it to class. But he has managed to stay sharp and supportive.

"I think I've grown a lot in the last five years, just figuring out what motivates me and how to bounce back from adversity," he said. "I'm a much wiser person.

"I handled not getting the starting job well this year. Last year, I wasn't very mature about it after the injury. But being able to deal with the ebbs and flows and ups and downs of the last five years has made me much stronger."

Burke might not have had the career he once envisioned. But he has already helped his team win a conference road game this season (at Syracuse), and he may be called on to start again as Louisville seeks a sixth victory so it can go to a bowl for the first time in four years.

"I want to put myself and the team in position to win," he said. "That's what I take pride in."

Louisville star running back Bilal Powell returned to practice Wednesday night for the first time since sustaining a knee injury against Pittsburgh on Oct. 30, according to The Courier-Journal.

Powell, who leads the Big East with 1,067 rushing yards, didn't play in last week's win at Syracuse. His status for Saturday's game against South Florida is still unknown.

Meanwhile, quarterback Adam Froman is not practicing and was still on crutches Wednesday night with a deep thigh bruise, the paper reported. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that if a quarterback is on crutches Wednesday, he's probably not playing on Saturday. Senior Justin Burke started against Syracuse and looks likely to do so again against the Bulls.

Some assorted notes from Monday's Big East coaches' teleconference and other items:

• Cincinnati quarterback Zach Collaros (bruised knee) has healed and should play Saturday at West Virginia. Head coach Butch Jones said Collaros was "immensely improved" and played the duration of the Bearcats' last practice. Collaros missed the last game, a 31-7 loss to Syracuse on Oct. 30.
• Will Louisville quarterback Adam Froman (thigh bruise) and running back Bilal Powell (knee) return this week against South Florida? Head coach Charlie Strong said there was no update on either player and that he "didn't know where they are at this point." He said Froman would regain his starting job over Justin Burke if healthy. Jeremy Wright, who filled in for Powell, was named Big East offensive player of the week for his performance at Syracuse.
• Reigning Big East co-defensive player of the year Greg Romeus may make his return Thursday night at Connecticut. Romeus, who has been out since back surgery in September, has practiced in the past week. Pittsburgh coach Dave Wannstedt said his senior defensive end would be a game-time decision Thursday night.
• Rutgers coach Greg Schiano hasn't named a starting quarterback for this week's game against Syracuse. Though Chas Dodd has started the past four games, the offense continues to struggle and Tom Savage is healthy again. Schiano told reporters Monday that he'd probably announce a starter later in the week.
• Several coaches were asked about the Big East's expansion plans, and predictably they deflected most of that talk by saying the decision wasn't in their hands. Wannstedt did say, however, that given the landscape in college sports, he doesn't "see how we can't move in that direction."
• Some kickoff times and TV info for the Nov. 20 games have been announced. West Virginia at Louisville will be at noon on the Big East Network. Pitt at South Florida will also be at noon on ESPN2. Connecticut at Syracuse is a -- gasp, night game alert! -- 7 p.m. kick on ESPNU. Information for Rutgers at Cincinnati is still to be announced.

Louisville has a new look in its backfield against Syracuse, and so far that's working well.

The Cardinals are playing without quarterback Adam Froman (thigh) and star running back Bilal Powell (knee). Senior Justin Burke made the start under center, while Blayne Donnell, Victor Anderson and Jeremy Wright have played tailback.

A big defensive play -- Daniel Brown sacked Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib, causing a fumble, and Antwone Canady scooped it up -- set up Louisville in good field position midway through the first quarter. The Cardinals took advantage, with Wright running untouched for a 28-yard touchdown. Burke also had a nice completion on the drive.

Wright, a redshirt freshman, caused a lot of buzz in spring practice with his play, but he was hampered by a knee injury and then a sports hernia in fall camp. Now he's healthy and getting a chance to show what he can do.

Syracuse has allowed only three offensive touchdowns in its three Big East wins.

The Orange answered when Nassib found Alec Lemon for a 51-yard touchdown pass as Lemon sliced right through the Louisville zone coverage. This game already has produced more excitement than last year's 10-9 stinker at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium.

The challenge for Louisville at Syracuse on Saturday has become more formidable.

The Cardinals will have to try and win at the Carrier Dome without the league's leading rusher and without their starting quarterback.

Bilal Powell, who has more than 1,000 yards this season, won't play because of swelling around his knee. Adam Froman, who has started every game at quarterback for Louisville, is out with a deep thigh bruise. Both were injured last week at Pittsburgh.

The Cardinals will use Victor Anderson, along with Jeremy Wright and Blayne Donnell, at running back. Anderson has missed several games with a shoulder injury but is expected to be ready Saturday. Senior Justin Burke will likely step in for Froman. Burke opened last season as the starter for the Cardinals.

Syracuse, meanwhile, will have to do without starting right tackle Michael Hay.

Here is the complete injury report for Saturday's lone Big East contest:

Louisville

Out
Jarrett Davis, WR Lower Extremity
Tyon Dixon, LB Concussion
Adam Froman, QB Lower Extremity
Bilal Powell, RB Lower Extremity

Questionable
Mark Wetterer, OG Upper Extremity
Greg Scruggs, DT Lower Extremity

Probable
Victor Anderson, RB Upper Extremity
Terence Simien, S Lower Extremity

Syracuse

Out
Ryan Gillum, LB Upper Body
Prince-Tyson Gulley, RB Illness
Adam Rosner, OG Upper Body
Michael Hay, RT Lower Body

Questionable
Ian Allport, OT Lower Body