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It's time to look back on my Best Case/Worst Case scenarios from the preseason for each team. Since Rutgers is playing in two days, let's start with the Scarlet Knights.

Original post is here.

Best case in a nutshell: 12-1 and a Big East title.

Worst case in a nutshell: 6-6 and no bowl.

Reality: 8-4 and St. Petersburg Bowl.

That's just crazy talk: "Senior Dom Natale wins the starting quarterback job and benefits from having all day to throw behind the league's best offensive line. The running game, led by Joe Martinek and Jourdan Brooks, combine to form a solid 1-2 punch and Tim Brown paces a better-than-expected receiving group. Freshman Tom Savage starts coming in for a few series at quarterback, giving the offense a Chris Leak-Tim Tebow vibe."

Not too far off: "Playing the defending conference champs in the opener without an established quarterback or proven receivers turns out to be a disaster, as Cincinnati spoils the christening of the expanded stadium. Natale struggles to make plays ... Martinek and Brooks remind nobody of Ray Rice, and the offense stalls all season."

What really happened: The offensive line was a disappointment. Greg Schiano had to go to freshman Savage early and patch together the offense with a lot of Wildcat formations. The defense got better as the season went along. Rutgers won all the games it was supposed to win except Syracuse but didn't really pull off any upsets. That's why the Scarlet Knights finished much closer to the worst case scenario than my highly optimistic best case version.

It's difficult to call an 8-4 season and a bowl game a disappointment, especially for a program that's still relatively new to this whole winning thing.

Still, Rutgers had things lined up to do so much more this season. The Scarlet Knights played no one of consequence in the nonconference schedule and had most of their toughest league games at home. Viewed in that light, 8-4 isn't much to crow about.

The season got off to the worst possible start, as Cincinnati ruined the opening of the expanded Rutgers Stadium with a 47-15 pounding on Labor Day. Midway through that game, head coach Greg Schiano decided to cast his lot with true freshman Tom Savage at quarterback. It was the right call, as Savage was better than senior Dom Natale, but it also meant that the offense would be on training wheels most of the season.

Receiver Tim Brown, true freshman Mohamed Sanu and running back Joe Martinek gave the offense some punch, but the veteran offensive line disappointed. The team went back to the earlier days under Schiano by relying on defense and special teams to create opportunities; Rutgers was one of the best in the nation in forcing turnovers, coming up with 32 of them on the year.

The Scarlet Knights had a chance to salvage something special out of this season, but a blowout upset loss to Syracuse and an inability to get past West Virginia in the home finale left them thinking about next year.

Offensive MVP: Brown. After years of playing a complementary role behind Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood, the diminutive Brown stepped forward as a true No. 1 receiver this season. He had 51 catches for 1,051 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 20.6 yards per catch. That he did it with a true freshman quarterback and cautious playcalling in the passing game made Brown's year all the more impressive.

Defensive MVP: Devin McCourty. The best cornerback in the Big East was also one of the league's most disruptive forces on special teams. He'll join his twin brother, Jason, in the NFL next season.

Turning point: The Scarlet Knights had just fallen behind UConn 24-21 with 38 seconds left on Halloween afternoon. A loss would have saddled them with a 5-3 record and 0-3 Big East mark. But Brown rescued Rutgers with an amazing 81-yard catch-and-dash for a touchdown just 16 seconds later. Who knows how the season would have unfolded without that play?

What's next: With Savage and Sanu on the verge of superstardom, the future looks pretty bright. Still, the Scarlet Knights lose key seniors Brown, McCourty, defensive end George Johnson, center Ryan Blaszczyk and linebacker Ryan D'Imperio and most likely junior left tackle Anthony Davis to the NFL. Rutgers needs to develop a more consistent running game, find more receivers who can contribute and avoid the slow starts that have plagued the last two seasons.

Posted by ESPN.com's Brian Bennett

Just 30 minutes into its 2009 season, Rutgers' high hopes disappeared like that Russian mobster who escaped through the snowy woods in the famous "Sopranos" episode. The Scarlet Knights trailed Cincinnati 31-7 at halftime of the opener en route to an eventual 47-15 humiliation.

Since then, Rutgers has won four straight, but it hasn't exactly faced a murderer's row. In fact, the schedule has been more like a malodorous row: Howard, Florida International, Maryland and Texas Southern. Combined record of those four: 6-15.

There might not be a more suspect four-game winning streak in the country. And so the obvious question facing the Scarlet Knights this Friday night against Pittsburgh is, did they put cement shoes on that opening-week performance? Or have the last four games been merely a mirage produced by crummy competition?

"I don't know where our best is going to put us in relation to Pitt," coach Greg Schiano said. "I just hope we can play our best and find out where that stacks up."

Here are some reasons to believe Rutgers has turned a corner.

True freshman Tom Savage took over the reins of the offense in the second half of the Cincinnati game and has provided a steady hand. After season-opening starter Dom Natale threw three interceptions in the first half of that game, the Scarlet Knights haven't had a pick yet. The offensive line has stabilized with the addition of Desmond Wynn at right guard.

"I think we took tremendous strides in getting better," Savage said. "I feel like we're more comfortable out there with the whole scheme and we're more comfortable with our teammates."

The defense, after getting shredded in Week 1, now looks more like a Schiano-coached defense. It has created four defensive scores in the four victories and has gained 16 total turnovers.

"They're playing as good a defense right now as anybody in our conference," Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt said. "They're definitely doing things as a football team that are a heck of a lot better than they were in Week 1."

Now here are some reasons for skepticism.

While Savage has avoided turnovers, the passing game is nowhere near as productive as it was a year ago. Rutgers is seventh in the Big East with 181 passing yards per game, and Savage is completing just 56 percent of his passes. This will be his first Big East start.

The running game has put up decent numbers, but you would expect the Scarlet Knights to bulldoze weak FCS opponents like Texas Southern and Howard on the ground. Schiano says the running game lacks consistency. And no matter how good the stats are, there's no getting around that they were compiled against wildly inferior teams.

"I think we've improved," Schiano said. "But we still have a long way to go."

The biggest sign for optimism, actually, may be the next opponent.

Rutgers has never lost to a Wannstedt-coached team and will get the 5-1 Panthers at home. Remember last year, when the Scarlet Knights were 2-5 and struggling mightily to score points. Then they went to Pitts on Oct. 25 and scored a stunning 54-34 rout that spurred a dominating run the rest of the season.

"They've always had their way with us, so I'm sure they're looking forward to this game," Wannstedt said.

Rutgers receiver Tim Brown sees a turnaround similar to last season happening. He said the team had a meeting after the Cincinnati loss where the players "said a couple of things to each other, came together and started playing fast and playing hard." Confidence only increases after four straight wins, no matter who they come against.

Now it's time for the Scarlet Knights to prove whether that confidence is warranted.

"We're ready to show people what the real Rutgers is all about," Brown said.

Posted by ESPN.com's Brian Bennett

Backup quarterbacks are not just the most popular guy on campus -- sometimes they're the most important. Just ask South Florida and UConn, who have each had to go to their No. 2 signal-callers this season already; neither team has lost since the backup has taken over. And in the most famous recent example in the Big East, Tony Pike stepped in for an injured Dustin Grutza last year. The rest, as they say, is history.

So let's take a look at how each team's backup quarterback situation stands right now, with a series of three categories:

Ready to roll

Cincinnati: The Bearcats went through a full deck of quarterbacks last year, and though Pike might be the best player in the league, at least Brian Kelly knows he has replacements at the ready. Zach Collaros would probably get the first call if something happened to Pike, but Chazz Anderson won games under center last year as well.

Pittsburgh: Though Tino Sunseri has barely played, he was in a heated three-way competition throughout the preseason to replace Bill Stull. And if Sunseri wasn't the answer, Pitt could call upon junior Pat Bostick, whose last two starts were wins at West Virginia and at Notre Dame.

Rutgers: Dom Natale was the starter on Labor Day but lost that status by halftime to rookie phenom Tom Savage. Natale stepped in for Savage last week at Maryland and may have to do so again as Savage overcomes a concussion. Natale is a fifth-year senior, but he's merely a game manager at this point; he was just 4-of-12 for 42 yards against Maryland.

Has the hype

South Florida: B.J. Daniels may turn out to be the story of the season in the Big East. As everybody knows by now, the redshirt freshman took over for conference all-time yardage leader Matt Grothe and promptly delivered a victory at Florida State. What if Daniels, who runs the ball a lot, gets banged up? The Bulls would turn to another redshirt frosh: Evan Landi. Jim Leavitt touted Landi just as highly as Daniels all spring and summer. Landi, who has gotten in at receiver this season, would have to prove Leavitt right a second time.

West Virginia: True freshman Geno Smith was one of the Mountaineers' prized recruits of the offseason, and he saw time late at Auburn when Jarrett Brown suffered a bruised shoulder. Smith has worlds of talent, but he's very raw.

Who knows?

Connecticut: Cody Endres has filled in superbly for the injured Zach Frazer and may hold onto the job. If Endres got hurt now, though, the Huskies would have to turn to freshman Mike Box. UConn coaches love his talent, and he might be the future of the program. But right now, he's completely green.

Louisville: Adam Froman might have won the starting job if he hadn't gotten hurt in training camp. Now he's backing up Justin Burke -- and seeing time as a blocker on kicking teams. The junior-college transfer drew praise for his offseason leadership, but he's an unproven commodity at this level.

Syracuse: Ryan Nassib was the designated starter this spring -- until Greg Paulus decided to return to the sport. Nassib has gotten in a few snaps this year and looked pretty sharp, but he's still a redshirt freshman who hasn't been in many pressurized situations.

Posted by ESPN.com's Brian Bennett

• Cincinnati has a huge upper hand in the rivalry with Miami, but that wasn't always the case, Bill Koch writes in the Cincinnati Enquirer.
• The Syracuse Post-Standard's Bud Poliquin is not a big fan of the Yankee Bowl.
• Pitt is having problems on third down, both offensive and defensively, Ray Fittipaldo says in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
• Colorado's Dan Hawkins and West Virginia's Bill Stewart each speak highly of the other's quarterback, Dave Hickman writes in the Charleston Gazette.
• South Florida linebacker Kion Wilson came back into the Florida State game despite needing 25 stitches in his hand, Greg Auman writes in the St. Petersburg Times.
• Louisville's Jon Dempsey is a sharp-dressed man -- and a pretty darn good linebacker as well, C.L. Brown writes in The Courier-Journal.
• Rutgers quarterback Dom Natale is deaf in his right ear, Brendan Prunty writes in The Star-Ledger.

Posted by ESPN.com's Brian Bennett

Rutgers freshman Tom Savage didn't start today because of lingering effects from last week's hit to the head. And the Scarlet Knights' offense is woozy as well.

They don't have an offensive touchdown while trailing Maryland 13-10 at halftime. Dom Natale, who started for Savage, is just 2-for-6 for 24 yards. Rutgers has just 98 yards at intermission.

Brutal is the only word that comes to mind.

Posted by ESPN.com's Brian Bennett

• Rutgers' Dom Natale has to bounce back from losing his starting quarterback job -- because he might be needed on Saturday at Maryland, Tom Luicci writes in The Star-Ledger.
• Pitt's Elijah Fields is beginning to realize his vast potential, Ray Fittipaldo writes in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
• Cincinnati is making a push to raise money for better facilities, Bill Koch reports in the Cincinnati Enquirer.
• Syracuse's improvement in run defense from a year ago is startling, Dave Rahme writes in the Syracuse Post-Standard.
• South Florida's offensive line will get its first real test at FSU, Kerry Klecic says in the St. Petersburg Times.
• Louisville is counting on a pair of seniors to replace starting safety Terrence Simien, C.L. Brown writes in The Courier-Journal.

Posted by ESPN.com's Brian Bennett

Will freshman quarterback Tom Savage start for Rutgers on Saturday at Maryland?

Head coach Greg Schiano said on Thursday night that he didn't know the answer to that question. Savage, who was knocked out late in the Florida International game from a hit to the head, has practiced this week but may not be fully recovered.

"He's still not out of the woods," Schiano told reporters Thursday night.

If Savage can't go, senior Dom Natale would start. He started the opener against Cincinnati but was benched at halftime after throwing three interceptions.

Posted by ESPN.com's Brian Bennett

1. Quest for respect, Part II: The Big East made a good impression last week with wins over Oregon State, Northwestern and Baylor. This is another big week, with games on tap against ACC opponents Florida State, NC State and Maryland, plus two strong nonautomatic-qualifying schools in Fresno State and Utah. Once again, the Big East will have to be road warriors, as only the Fresno game is on league turf. Can the conference keep up the strong early showing?

2. B.J. Daniels: Has a Big East freshman quarterback ever made a more-scrutinized midseason debut? Not only does Daniels lead South Florida into a landmark game at Florida State, he'll do so in his hometown. The kid has a lot of talent. He'll need a lot of poise as well.

3. The Bulls' defensive line: South Florida's deep D-line is the strength of the team, led by George Selvie. They will have to win the battle against a much-improved FSU offensive line and get pressure on Christian Ponder, who's been very accurate when he's had time to throw. If the Bulls can't consistently control this matchup, they'll have a hard time winning the game.

4. Carolina line battles: You know when teams coached by Dave Wannstedt and Tom O'Brien meet, it's going to be a physical encounter. Pitt's defensive line is the best in the Big East, and its offensive line has overpowered the first three opponents. NC State has been shuffling its offensive line around all season because of injuries, which would seem to work in Pitt's favor. There are some pretty good defensive ends on display, with Pitt's Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard versus the Wolfpack's Willie Young. This might be one game where it's more fun to watch the line of scrimmage than follow the ball.

5. Russell Wilson vs. Bill Stull: NC State quarterback Wilson is allergic to interceptions, having set an NCAA record for most attempts without a pick. But Stull has actually been more accurate so far this season. Stull has better receivers, while Wilson can make plays with his feet. Both will be pressured, and they'll both have to keep making smart decisions.

6. Big plays in the little house: Is Nippert Stadium big enough to hold all the potential long-yardage plays in the Cincinnati-Fresno State game? Fresno running back Ryan Mathews is a threat to score whenever he touches the ball, and the Bulldogs like to throw deep whenever possible. The Bearcats put up plenty of game-breaking moments themselves. This could turn into an exciting shootout, though Cincinnati would rather make Fresno State have to put together sustained drives.

7. Who is Rutgers?: The Scarlet Knights were embarrassed in the opener against Cincinnati. Then they played two nobodies, with another nobody on tap next week. Maryland isn't good, having just lost to Middle Tennessee State and needing overtime to beat James Madison. So, even though it's on the road, the Scarlet Knights need to win this game to show that they're to be taken seriously in 2009.

8. Rutgers' quarterback situation: Tom Savage is questionable after the head injury he suffered against Florida International. His potential replacement, Dom Natale, did not fare well against Cincinnati. Whoever starts on Saturday will have the chance to make plays against a Maryland defense that gave up more than 30 points to both James Madison and Middle Tennessee State.

9. Big East vs. Mountain West: Louisville is a heavy underdog at Utah and probably shouldn't be expected to win there. But if the Cardinals somehow pull that off or even keep it close until the end, Big East supporters can tell Mountain West backers to shove it. If the MWC is really worthy of an automatic BCS slot, then its defending champ ought to be able to beat last year's last-place Big East team handily. Right?

10. Syracuse and UConn taking care of business: There shouldn't be much noteworthy coming out of the Orange's game against Maine and the Huskies' date with Rhode Island. The Big East has done a good job thus far of dispatching lower-level opponents and avoiding any Maryland-style disasters. Syracuse and UConn, which don't normally operate with a lot of margin for error, need to keep that streak intact.

Posted by ESPN.com's Brian Bennett

Rutgers coach Greg Schiano indicated early in the week that quarterback Tom Savage, who suffered a head injury last week against Florida International, would be good to go this Saturday at Maryland.

On Tuesday night, Schiano didn't sound so sure.

Schiano told reporters after practice that Savage was "not 100 percent" and that he was still dealing with lingering issues from the hit.

“I’m not sure he’s going to be able to play," Schiano said. "It’s more up to the doctor than me.”

Schiano also revealed that backup Dom Natale, who started the season opener against Cincinnati, has gotten more reps in practice this week just in case.

Uncertainty at quarterback is probably the last thing Rutgers needs as it prepares to go on the road for the first time this season. Then again, head injuries are a tricky business, and Schiano does not want to risk further damage to his prized true freshman.

Posted by ESPN.com's Brian Bennett

Rutgers coach Greg Schiano made it official after practice tonight: true freshman Tom Savage is his starting quarterback.

Savage played the entire second half of the 47-15 loss to Cincinnati after starter Dom Natale threw three first-half interceptions. Savage went 15-of-23 for 135 yards and a touchdown. Natale, a fifth-year senior, will be his backup.

This is the right decision and really the only decision Schiano could make. With games against Howard and Texas Southern coming up, there's no reason not to let the kid get some valuable experience. It will also give the fans something to get excited about, though I don't think Schiano cares much about that.

Most importantly, Savage just looks like the best quarterback on the team and gives the Scarlet Knights the best chance to win. He had a solid pocket presence and showed off a strong arm against Cincinnati, though he did hold on to the ball a bit too long at times. Savage should now settle in and be the quarterback for the next four years.

Will this cause a rift on the team? Natale, after all, is the veteran. But Savage said on Monday night that Natale was very supportive of him when he went into the game and continued to give him advice.

"It takes a great leader to do that," Savage said.

Posted by ESPN.com's Brian Bennett

PISCATAWAY, N.J. -- Now what for Rutgers?

The Scarlet Knights' opener could hardly have been more disastrous. Picked by some, including yours truly, to win the Big East, they didn't look like they belonged in the same league as Cincinnati in a 47-15 home loss before a national audience.

	Rich Kane/Icon SMI
	True freshman receiver Mohamed Sanu was one of the few bright spots for Rutgers, hauling in 10 catches for 101 yards.

"We were a step behind physically, mentally, coaching ... the whole deal," head coach Greg Schiano said.

Even the team's supposed strengths -- defense and the offensive line -- failed to perform anywhere near expectations. The Bearcats neutralized Rutgers' front seven by going with a no-huddle, four-wide receiver scheme and having quarterback Tony Pike get rid of the ball quickly out of the shotgun. The Scarlet Knights got very little pressure and could not cover Cincinnati's receivers with linebackers and safeties -- or anyone else. Tackling, surprisingly, was also an issue.

The offensive line, which returned all five starters from a year ago, did not control the point of attack after Rutgers' first drive. Granted, the Scarlet Knights all but abandoned the running game after falling behind quickly, allowing Cincinnati to tee off on the pass rush, but the performance from what everybody assumed was the Big East's best line was uninspiring.

"We still have a lot of young guys on the offensive line," Schiano said. "We need to make large improvements before we're a dominant offensive line."

At least Schiano figured out his quarterback situation, by default. Dom Natale threw three interceptions in the second quarter, while the Jabu Lovelace package (he was 0-for-2 passing and ran for -2 yards on three carries) seems like a waste of time. The only spark from the offense came once true freshman Tom Savage came in to start the second half. The rookie showed a nice pocket presence and a strong arm, and it's hard to fathom why Schiano would start anyone but Savage from here on out.

"I was a little nervous going out there," said the highly recruited Savage, who completed 15 of 23 passes for 135 yards and a touchdown in his debut. "The older guys helped me out and got me cooled down.

"It was awesome going out there, and I definitely got my feet wet. I just want to move forward now."

The receiver position caused a lot of worry in the offseason but proved to be one of the few solid areas in the opener. Tim Brown (seven catches, 86 yards) showed he could be a No. 1 target, while true freshman Mohamed Sanu (10 catches, 101 yards) looks like a future star.

For whatever reason, a lot of Schiano's teams seem to come out of the gates slowly and improve as the year goes along. Rutgers got blown out at home by Fresno State in last year's opener and started 1-5 before turning things around. At least the players have the experience of knowing how to bounce back.

"We'll find out what kind of team we are," cornerback Devin McCourty said. "Maybe last year will be fortunate for this team. We understand you have to just keep playing and prepare for the next game because it can snowball on you."

It's unlikely that the Scarlet Knights will build a similar hole for themselves this year, simply because of the schedule. They have two FCS teams -- Howard and Texas Southern -- in their next four games, which also include a home date with Florida International and a trip to Maryland, which also got blown out in Week 1.

The next Big East game doesn't come until Oct. 16, when Pitt visits Piscataway. By then, conceivably, Savage will have had time to grow and the team will have straightened its issues out.

But there's no denying that Monday's loss dealt a blow to the excitement around the program. A record crowd of 53,737 filled the newly expanded Rutgers Stadium for the opener, and even the emergence of Savage probably won't get fans excited to come out for Howard, Texas Southern and Florida International.

"I just hope that people have learned this is a resilient program, a resilient team and a resilient coach," Schiano said. "This program will be back and be fine. We'll be exciting and we will win games.

"We've got to do it, though, because this is an event-driven era. You've got to be an event, and part of the event is winning."

Posted by ESPN.com's Brian Bennett

PISCATAWAY, N.J. -- Boos rained down on the home team from Rutgers fans as the first half came to a close. Yeah, it has not been a good day so far for the Scarlet Knights.

Best player in the half: Cincinnati quarterback Tony Pike. He's done just about everything right, except for a broken screen pass that turned into an interception. But Pike is 20 of 25 for 286 yards and two scores. I feel pretty good about picking him as my Big East offensive player of the year. (Not so good about picking Rutgers to win the league).

Stat of the half: Three. That's how many interceptions Dom Natale has thrown already. Unacceptable from a guy whose main job was to manage the game. I don't see how Rutgers can do anything but play Tom Savage in the second half.

Best call: Take your pick. Brian Kelly has been masterful. My personal favorite were the two Wildcat-like runs by Travis Kelce for a touchdown. Totally unexpected, and very effective. That had to take the wind out of the Scarlet Knights' sails, watching an unknown backup tight end run over them.

Posted by ESPN.com's Brian Bennett

PISCATAWAY, N.J. -- Dom Natale hasn't played that badly, but his last two passes to Tim Brown sailed high, and the second one was tipped and intercepted by Aaron Webster. The one thing Natale can't afford to do is turn the ball over.

The Jabu Lovelace package has not worked at all. Lovelace threw one pass that was 15 yards away from his receiver. He ran twice, both for losses (though one was a bad snap). And he handed off on a successful reverse. I'm not a fan of this formation for Rutgers, which just doesn't seem to have the right personnel for the Wildcat.

Neither one has distinguished himself, then. So is it Tom Savage time yet?

Posted by ESPN.com's Brian Bennett

PISCATAWAY, N.J. --Rutgers answered Cincinnati's scoring drive with one of its own, albeit quite differently.

The Scarlet Knights went on a marathon, 20-play march that included two fourth-down sneaks by Dom Natale and only three pass completions.

Pretty clear what's going on here: Cincinnati is the quick-strike attack, while Rutgers will try to pound it on the ground and wear the new Bearcats defense out.

Speaking of the new defense, the 3-4 look hasn't been unveiled yet. Cincinnati had at least four down linemen on every play. In fact, a couple of times it had five as Rutgers was in a running formation most of the time. The Scarlet Knights' offensive line is overpowering Cincinnati when it needs to.

The dichotomy has been established. Which style will win out?