Big East: key stretch 2010

Key stretch: Louisville

August, 2, 2010
8/02/10
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Here's the seventh installment of a series examining the most crucial stretches of the schedule for each Big East team.

Louisville is lined up today.

Key stretch: at Syracuse (Nov. 6), South Florida (Nov. 13), West Virginia (Nov. 20)

Breakdown: For the Cardinals to have any shot at reaching a bowl game in Charlie Strong's first year, they're going to have to find at least two Big East wins somewhere. And this stretch probably presents their best chances.

The Syracuse-Louisville game has basically been a toss-up the past three years, with the Cardinals breaking a two-game losing streak last season with an ugly home win. Even though it's on the road, this year's game provides one of the few conference contests where Louisville will have nearly equal talent as its opponent. South Florida comes to town a week later with history on Strong's side: the Bulls have never won in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium, dating back to their Conference USA days. The Cards' lone 2008 Big East victory happened against USF at home.

The West Virginia game is a long shot at best, but at least it's a rivalry game at home. Perhaps Louisville -- which pushed the Mountaineers to the wire last year in Morgantown -- can gain some momentum and confidence by the time this game rolls around.

Prediction: Strong has his work cut out for him. If you were making the odds right now, you wouldn't favor Louisville in any of these games. I don't see the Cardinals going winless in the Big East this year, though; I'll bet they sneak one of these out, either at Syracuse or against South Florida, for a 1-2 record in this stretch.

More key stretches:

Cincinnati

West Virginia

Pittsburgh

Rutgers

Connecticut

South Florida

Key stretch: South Florida

July, 29, 2010
7/29/10
10:30
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Here's the sixth installment of a series examining the most crucial stretches of the schedule for each Big East team.



Key stretch: at West Virginia (Oct. 14), at Cincinnati (Oct. 22), Rutgers (Nov. 3)

Breakdown: Skip Holtz can endear himself to South Florida fans right away by doing one thing: winning Big East games when the calendar flips to October. That was Jim Leavitt's obstacle the past couple of years, and the Bulls don't get an easy path this October.

After opening conference play at home with Syracuse, Holtz's first team has to go to Morgantown and Cincinnati before welcoming Rutgers to Tampa. How the Bulls fare in this stretch should determine whether they're a contender or a pretender in the Big East. South Florida has had success against West Virginia of late, but Cincinnati had this team's number under Brian Kelly. Rutgers blew out the Bulls last year in Piscataway in a game that was never close.

Prediction: I expect Holtz to reverse USF's midseason trend -- eventually. It's going to be tough this year with such a young team. I see the Bulls going 1-2 at best in this stretch, with its best chance coming at home against the Scarlet Knights.

More key stretches:

Cincinnati

West Virginia

Pittsburgh

Rutgers

Connecticut

Key stretch: Connecticut

July, 28, 2010
7/28/10
9:00
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Here's the fifth installment of a series examining the most crucial stretches of the schedule for each Big East team.

Come on down, Connecticut.

Key stretch: West Virginia (Oct. 29), Pittsburgh (Nov. 11), at Syracuse (Nov. 20), Cincinnati (Nov. 27)

Breakdown: Connecticut wants to establish itself as a Big East title contender this year. Well, the Huskies couldn't ask for a better schedule. They get the Mountaineers, Panthers and Bearcats -- the top three finishers in last year's race, and the odds-on top three teams this preseason -- all at Rentschler Field. They even get a nice little break between the West Virginia and Pitt games to regroup.

Those three home tilts are broken up by a road trip to Syracuse. UConn should be favored in that game, but if it gets caught up focusing too much on that home trio, then the Orange could certainly pull off an upset.

Prediction: UConn has never beaten West Virginia, and that has to change for this season to be different. The Huskies did blast Cincinnati at home two years ago and have competed well of late against Pitt. If Connecticut can go 3-1 or better in this quartet, it will have a good chance at winning the Big East title. I predict another loss to WVU, however, and a record of 2-2 during this key stretch.

More key stretches:

Cincinnati

West Virginia

Pittsburgh

Rutgers

Key stretch: Rutgers

July, 27, 2010
7/27/10
9:00
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This is the fourth part in a series examining the most crucial stretches of the schedule for each Big East team. Rutgers, take a bow.

Key stretch: at Pittsburgh (Oct. 23), at South Florida (Nov. 3), Syracuse (Nov. 13), at Cincinnati (Nov. 20).

Breakdown: As you know, Rutgers isn't exactly known for playing the most demanding schedules. But the Scarlet Knights don't have control over their Big East slate, and three of its four league road games come in this four-game stretch.

Still, there are some things to like about this quartet if you're a Rutgers fan. The team has 10 days off between both the Pitt and USF games and the USF and Syracuse games. The Scarlet Knights blew out South Florida last year, and though they lost to the Orange in 2009, they get them at home for a shot at revenge. They've played well against Pitt in the past, finally having a long winning streak snapped last year in a close game. The Cincinnati game looks like it could be the toughest one of this bunch.

Prediction: Just like Rutgers' entire season, this will all depend on how well and how quickly a young team comes together. Conference road games are notoriously tough for young players. I like Rutgers to win in Tampa but drop the other two road contests, while evening the score against Doug Marrone at home. So make it 2-2.

Previous key stretches:

Cincinnati

West Virginia

Pittsburgh

Key stretch: Pittsburgh

July, 26, 2010
7/26/10
10:04
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This is the third part in a series examining the most crucial stretches of the schedule for each Big East team. Today, it's Pitt's turn.

Key stretch: at Connecticut (Nov. 11), at South Florida (Nov. 20), West Virginia (Nov. 26), at Cincinnati (Dec. 4)

Breakdown: Pitt must traverse a tricky schedule in order to live up to its billing as one of the Big East's favorite this year.

The Panthers finish the season with three of their final four games on the road, including at top conference contenders UConn and Cincinnati. Pitt barely escaped the Huskies at home last year and haven't been able to get past the Bearcats the past two seasons. Throw in a late-year trip to South Florida -- where Skip Holtz's system will have had time to marinate and mature -- and then the Backyard Brawl after a short week, and this is about as difficult a closing kick as any league team could ask for.

Even if Dave Wannstedt's team takes care of the first three of these obstacles, ending the year in Nippert Stadium with a conference title potentially on the line is no easy task.

Prediction: Many believe this will be the year Pitt breaks through under Wannstedt. If so, the Panthers will have to go at least 3-1 in this stretch. They've been pretty good against South Florida and match up well with UConn. I think Pittsburgh should win both of those games and split the final two.

Previous key stretches:

Cincinnati

West Virginia

Key stretch: West Virginia

July, 22, 2010
7/22/10
1:00
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Time to continue our look at the most crucial stretches of the schedule for each Big East team. We're going in order of finish from 2009, so second on the list is West Virginia, which tied Pitt for second in the league last year but won the head-to-head meeting against the Panthers.

Key stretch: at Connecticut (Oct. 29), Cincinnati (Nov. 13), at Louisville (Nov. 20), at Pittsburgh (Nov. 26)

Breakdown: West Virginia has more starters back than any other Big East team, and the schedule sets up nicely as well. The Mountaineers have only three Big East road games, and even this most crucial stretch is manageable.

First up is a trip to UConn, a team against whom West Virginia has never lost, and it's early enough that weather shouldn't be a factor. Then the Mountaineers get 14 days off until a showdown at home against Cincinnati, who has won the past two meetings on the way to consecutive Big East crowns. The Milan Puskar Stadium crowd should be worked into a pretty good lather by the time that game rolls around. In fact, you'd worry about a letdown after that game, but luckily the Mountaineers then go to Louisville, which will have a hard time measuring up talent-wise.

Assuming West Virginia can hold court at home against South Florida and Syracuse to start the Big East schedule, its conference title hopes could hinge on that Backyard Brawl trip to Pitt. Which only seems appropriate.

Prediction: By the time this portion of the schedule arrives, new starting quarterback Geno Smith should have fully grown accustomed to leading the team. Barring injuries or other misfortune, West Virginia looks very prepared to take on this challenge. I see the Mountaineers doing no worse than 3-1 in this stretch and putting themselves in position for title contention.

Previous key stretches:

Cincinnati

Key stretch: Cincinnati

July, 21, 2010
7/21/10
1:39
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Every game counts, of course, especially in a season that's only 12 games long. But we also know that certain parts of the schedule can be more crucial than others. So beginning today, I'm going to look at a key stretch of three or four games for each Big East team that could make or break its 2010 season.

We're going to go in a slightly different order this time around, using last year's conference standings as our guide. So starting off is defending champion Cincinnati.

Key stretch: at West Virginia (Nov. 13), Rutgers (Nov. 20), at Connecticut (Nov. 27), Pittsburgh (Dec. 4)

Breakdown: The champs certainly don't get an easy path to the finish line this year. They'll face the four teams I believe have the best chance of knocking them from their perch on four successive Saturdays. Cincinnati has won the past two Big East crowns precisely because of its ability to beat these teams; the only one of this quartet that has toppled the Bearcats since 2008 is UConn two years ago.

Still, one has to wonder if Cincinnati can navigate this gauntlet a third straight year, especially with road challenges in Morgantown and East Hartford that seem especially daunting. The Bearcats defense will have to finish the year better than it did last season against what could well be four very good offenses. And the weather at UConn in late November could be an issue for a passing team like Cincinnati.

Yet it's probably better that this tough portion of the schedule comes at the end, as Butch Jones and his staff will have their system fully in place and ready for the stretch drive.

Prediction: If Cincinnati goes 4-0 here, then you can deliver another Big East title to Clifton. But I think these games are all virtual toss-ups -- remember that last year's wins against UConn, West Virginia and Pitt were all nail biters -- and that the odds won't go in the Bearcats' favor again. I like Cincinnati to go 2-2 in this stretch, falling in Morgantown, winning against Rutgers at home and splitting the other two.
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