ESPN College Football

Posted by ESPN.com's Adam Rittenberg

The near consensus around college football says the Big Ten will come down to two teams in 2009 -- Ohio State and Penn State. Most preseason publications and other prognosticators have tabbed the Buckeyes to win the league, with the Nittany Lions possibly making a run at a repeat championship.

Sure, both teams lost a ton, but is there any other team that can make a run? Most seem to think there isn't.

Iowa's road schedule is too tough. Michigan State doesn't have the across-the-board talent to compete with the big boys. Illinois is the ultimate enigma, stocked with talent but lacking from the neck up. Minnesota is too young. Northwestern is Northwestern. Wisconsin is on the decline. Michigan is still picking up the pieces. The Indiana schools don't have a prayer.

From the outside, the Big Ten looks like a two-horse race.

CBSSports.com's Dennis Dodd is the latest to chime in, picking Ohio State to win a bad Big Ten and, not surprisingly, getting in a few shots on the league.

The Big Ten remains the leader in BCS bowls (19) but you don't have to be told the league has lost a step in recent years. The 28 NFL draft picks each of the last two seasons ranked fifth (2008) and tied for fourth (2009) among major conferences.

The league is only 9-20 in bowls (1-6 last season) since 2005.

Here's my best example for how average the Big Ten has become: Penn State has to replace 12 starters (the most in the league), including its entire secondary. It is a twisted ankle at quarterback away from finishing fifth. A good, not great, group of receivers have to be replaced by what might be good, not great, group of receivers.

Still, the Nittany Lions are a virtual pick-'em with Ohio State to go to the Rose Bowl.

Ouch. The Big Ten (bash) beat goes on ...

As someone who covers the league 24-7-365, I don't see things nearly as cut and dried. Yes, Ohio State and Penn State are the frontrunners entering the fall, but things can and will change. They do every year. That's the beauty of the sport.

Here are a few games and outcomes that could really shake up the Big Ten race.

Iowa at Penn State, Sept. 26 -- The first pivotal game of the conference season comes on the first Saturday of league play. An Iowa win in Happy Valley suddenly validates the Hawkeyes as a very legit league title contender.

Michigan State at Wisconsin, Sept. 26 -- A huge game for both teams, but especially the Spartans. If they want to hang around in the Big Ten race, a win at Camp Randall Stadium will be crucial, especially for the new starting quarterback (Kirk Cousins or Keith Nichol). Wisconsin could be 4-0 with a win here.

Illinois at Ohio State, Sept. 26 -- Illinois knocked off the top-ranked Buckeyes in its last trip to Columbus, and Ohio State recently has been a bit more vulnerable at home in league play. The opening slate to Big Ten play could make or break Illinois' season, and though a win at Ohio State seems pretty unlikely, the Illini offense will be very dangerous.

Michigan at Michigan State, Oct. 3 -- Michigan will be a much improved team in 2009, and it's not a total stretch to see the Wolverines enter Spartan Stadium undefeated. This marks the first road game for Michigan, which could have a freshman starter at quarterback. A Michigan State loss likely would take the Spartans out of the title race.

Penn State at Illinois, Oct. 3 -- If Penn State's issues in the secondary aren't ironed out by Oct. 3, it could spell big trouble for the Nittany Lions. Illinois threw the ball well at times in last year's game at Beaver Stadium and the Illini should be even better on offense this fall. An Illinois win could change the shape of the league race.

Iowa at Michigan State, Oct. 24 -- Ohio State and Penn State might create some separation by this point, but if things are still tight the winner of this game should be in good shape to make a run. A primetime kickoff should only add to game atmosphere.