Grading our over-under predictions

November, 28, 2012
11/28/12
2:00
PM ET
Back in the preseason, we took a stab at picking the over-under regular-season win totals for each Big Ten teams. We used some over-unders established by oddsmakers and came up with the rest ourselves.

Well, now that regular season is over, it's time to take a look at how we did -- and discover which blogger came out on top.

Illinois
  • Over-under: 6.5
  • Actual wins: 2
  • Brian's pick: Under
  • Adam's pick: Under
  • 20/20 hindsight: We both correctly predicted the under, but we also thought the Illini would just miss by winning six games. Uh, not quite.
Indiana
  • Over-under: 2.5
  • Actual wins: 4
  • Brian's pick: Over
  • Adam's pick: Over
  • 20/20 hindsight: Another win-win for both bloggers, though we both said Indiana would win only three games, not four. I predicted a winless conference season for the Hoosiers. My apologies.
Iowa
  • Over-under: 7.5
  • Actual wins: 4
  • Brian's pick: Over
  • Adam's pick: Over
  • 20/20 hindsight: A swing and a miss, times two. We both saw Iowa winning eight games against what looked like a manageable schedule. Not nearly manageable enough, it turned out.
Michigan
  • Over-under: 9
  • Actual wins: 8
  • Brian's pick: Under
  • Adam's pick: Push
  • 20/20 hindsight: Yours truly correctly picked the Wolverines to go 8-4. My arm hurts from patting myself on the back. Adam saw Michigan going 9-3. Close, but no cigar.
Michigan State
  • Over-under: 8.5
  • Actual wins: 6
  • Brian's pick: Over
  • Adam's pick: Over
  • 20/20 hindsight: OK, the back-patting has stopped. In fact, I wrote this: "If I didn't think sports gambling was a great way to lose money, I would have thrown down a bunch of cash on the Spartans' ridiculous over-under of 7 wins last year. I feel nearly the same about this one." Thank goodness I don't gamble on sports. At least Adam was on the same misguided boat as I.
Minnesota
  • Over-under: 4.5
  • Actual wins: 6
  • Brian's pick: Over
  • Adam's pick: Over
  • 20/20 hindsight: We both pegged the Gophers for five wins, and they outperformed our expectations by getting to a bowl game. Nice work, Goldy.
Nebraska
  • Over-under: 8.5
  • Actual wins: 10
  • Brian's pick: Over
  • Adam's pick: Over
  • 20/20 hindsight: We both got this one right, figuring a more experienced team would top last year's record. And it did, with a chance for win No. 11 this weekend.
Northwestern
  • Over-under: 6.5
  • Actual wins: 9
  • Brian's pick: Over
  • Adam's pick: Under
  • 20/20 hindsight: Adam's lack of faith in his alma mater cost him, as he projected a 6-6 mark. I wasn't a whole lot higher on the Wildcats in predicting 7-5, but it was good enough to get a win in my column here.
Ohio State
  • Over-under: 9
  • Actual wins: 12
  • Brian's pick: Over
  • Adam's pick: Push
  • 20/20 hindsight: I thought I was being bold in predicting a 10-win season for the Buckeyes. Turns out I wasn't bold enough. Yet another win for me.
Penn State
  • Over-under: 5.5
  • Actual wins: 8
  • Brian's pick: Over
  • Adam's pick: Over
  • 20/20 hindsight: Both of us thought the reports of the Nittany Lions' demise were overstated, but neither of us saw eight wins for Bill O'Brien in Year 1. I liked a 6-6 year, while Adam thought 7-5 was about right. That's why O'Brien was coach of the year.
Purdue
  • Over-under: 7.5
  • Actual wins: 6
  • Brian's pick: Under
  • Adam's pick: Under
  • 20/20 hindsight: We both picked 7-5, which turned out to be just a tad optimistic for the Boilermakers. But we both correctly avoided buying in too much to the offseason "sleeper" status for Purdue.
Wisconsin
  • Over-under: 9.5
  • Actual wins: 7
  • Brian's pick: Under
  • Adam's pick: Over
  • 20/20 hindsight: Yet another win for me, though I thought Wisconsin could win nine games. Adam wrote that he didn't see the Badgers losing more than two league games. The only way that could be true now is if he only watched half of Wisconsin's Big Ten losses.
Final results


Brian: 10-2
Adam: 6-6

Well, after getting crushed in our weekly picks contest and edged out in fantasy, it feels good to win something this year. I may have whiffed badly on Michigan State and Iowa, but getting 10 out of 12 right is pretty darn good. I would pick up and move to Vegas if my other predictions hadn't been so bad. At least Adam avoided finishing under .500.

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