Big Ten mailbag: Penn State's BCS chances

November, 4, 2008
Nov 4
5:27
PM ET
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By Adam Rittenberg

Posted by ESPN.com's Adam Rittenberg

A friendly reminder to include both your name and your hometown with the e-mails. I won't be as forgiving in Friday's mailbag.

Great job with the restaurant recommendations last week for Minneapolis. The 11 a.m. kickoff made things a little tough, but those were some quality suggestions. Same goes this week for Iowa City, where I'll be watching the Hawkeyes take on No. 3 Penn State (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET).

Metro-Detroit writes: What is the result, both in the Big Ten and then the BCS, if both MSU and OSU win out? Is it that MSU and OSU share the Big Ten title(since MSU would beat PSU who beat OSU who beat MSU, evening out the head to head) but the BCS edge goes to OSU for the straight head to head? Just want to make sure I know whats coming if the Sparty's pull it off.

Adam Rittenberg: It all depends on whether Penn State loses another game besides Michigan State. If all three teams finish 7-1, Michigan State wins the BCS tiebreaker because it didn't play any FCS opponents (both Penn State and Ohio State faced one). If Penn State somehow loses another game plus the Michigan State contest -- this is extremely unlikely -- and Ohio State wins out, Ohio State would win the tiebreaker because of the head-to-head with Michigan State. So as a Spartans fan, you want Penn State to beat Iowa and Indiana before hosting MSU.


Dillon from Las Vegas, Nev., writes: No question, but I just think you owe an apology for the advice you gave to the guy wondering if he should play Siller against Michigan.

Adam Rittenberg: That's a great call, Dillon. And to Jason from Boca Raton, Fla., my sincere apologies. I hope you didn't listen and stick with Justin Siller, who accounted for four touchdowns (three pass, one rush) in the win against Michigan and earned Big Ten Co-Offensive Player of the Week honors. Never take fantasy football advice from a guy who is 4-5 in my NFL league (though I'm on a two-game win streak after crushing Fear The Turtle last week). Siller looks like a stud, and he should be in the mix for the starting job with Joey Elliott next year.


Chris from Philly writes: Alright Adam, putting you on the spot here: Which of the 2 do you think make the championship game: 1. Undefeated PSU, but does not dominate its last 3 opponents. Instead of the 45-13 scores we were used to, we see more 24-17, 20-13 type scores. Joe make think differently now, but he has never been known as the type to run up the scores. Based on the way Florida, USC and Oklahoma have been playing, he may need to. 2. Florida with one loss and steam rolls through Alabama in the SEC championship game. Right now, they look like the best team in football. 3. A one loss Texas team that wins the Big 12 Championship. They were a dropped duck-INT away from being undefeated through a hellacios stretch of their schedule and really should not fall too far. The weak Pac-10 kills USC chances unless there is a lot of turmoil ahead of them, I think TT is going to lose at least one game if not 2 to OK State and OK, and OK is not iin control of its destiny. I think no matter what an undefeated PSU will be in the championship game, but as my buddy T-Money said, if they keep out an undefeated BCS team from the championship game...it will set a bad precedent.

Adam Rittenberg: Got to agree with T-Money about the bad precedent, but this scenario could present some problems for Penn State. The computers like Texas, and Florida will get a bump with its upcoming schedule. I asked Paterno today about winning impressively and he went on a rant about how that's not what football should be about. Don't expect him to intentionally run up the score on Iowa, Indiana or Michigan State. There's little chance that both Texas Tech and Alabama go undefeated, but my sense is Penn State will be fine if it takes care of business. Keep in mind the Lions have won all but one of their games by 14 points or more.


Brent from Westland, Mich., writes: Adam, I was at the MSU-Wisc game on Saturday and I must say, Brian Hoyer was the best I have ever seen! Yes, his stats show otherwise, but his receivers let him down big time. Against Wisconsin, he avoided sacks, moved in and out of the pocket, put throws in between defenders and on the money. Had his wide-outs not dropped so many balls, his stats would have been awesome for the game. He has truly proven himself these last two weeks. That said, what do you think of this MSU team? There are some reporters who think the Big Ten is awful, and MSU is the worst team of any 8 win team. I disagree with that. But what do you think?

Adam Rittenberg: I completely agree, and so does Brian, who told me the last two games were the best he's played this season. The stats are a bit deceiving with Hoyer. His completion percentage should be a bit higher, but he has been hurt by dropped passes and some injuries to wide receivers. Hoyer is kind of a symbol for Michigan State's success this season. The Spartans aren't flashy, but they know how to win and get the job done. The Ohio State loss still leaves me a bit concerned about Michigan State in a New Year's Day bowl game, but Mark Dantonio is undoubtedly making major progress instilling a physical style of play and a greater mental toughness. My sense is the Spartans finish 9-3.


Kedric from Lansing, Mich., writes: OK, I read what you wrote about what would happen in a tie-breaker situation between Penn St., Michigan St., and Ohio State. But my question is since Michigan State would be in the Rose Bowl, what bowl game would Penn State and Ohio State end up in? (That is assuming everybody else in the title hunt doesn't lose a couple times).

Adam Rittenberg: I highly doubt either Penn State or Ohio State would reach a BCS game in this scenario. The Big 12 and the SEC are more likely to get two teams in the BCS than the Big Ten, unless Penn State goes to the national title game. If this scenario played out, Penn State would go to the Capital One Bowl and Ohio State to the Outback Bowl.


Michael from Springfield, Mo., writes: Adam, I think you and the rest of the media have been too critical of Coach Rodriguez. He was hired to RESTORE the program to where it should be - consistently challenging for Big Ten and national titles. Simply put, there is a dearth of talent at Michigan and I don't think any coach would have done much better this season, regardless of scheme. I still believe Rodriguez was a fantastic hire because his record speaks for itself: clean programs and lots of wins...after his first season. To say that Rodriguez "has not delivered" is a little premature because he was hired to build a program and not a season. I love the blog and I hope you keep up the great coverage of the conference!

Adam Rittenberg: Michael, he hasn't delivered this season, plain and simple. I think Rich would admit it. And Michigan isn't a program that needs to be rebuilt from the ground up. Sure, there were some major personnel losses and a lot of young players seeing the field this fall, but losing at home to Toledo? C'mon. Now I still believe Rodriguez was an excellent hire who will put Michigan in the Big Ten title mix very soon. But for this season, his inability to get more out of this team has been troubling.


Steven from Madison, Wis., writes: I blew off the early "fire Bielema" stuff, but after the Michigan State game where Coach B. helped Sparty a bunch with his unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, him not takin
g a field goal to make it a 5 point game, and then with his timeouts to 'ice' the kicker, I'm thinking of jumping on the bandwagon myself. Is it fair to blame Bielema for this disappointing letdown?

Adam Rittenberg: It wasn't Bret's finest game as a coach, but remember that this is the same guy that helped Wisconsin reach back-to-back New Year's Day bowl games. When I saw Wisconsin in the preseason, I saw three very average quarterbacks, some problems in the secondary and several lingering injury issues. Now, few could have envisioned such a major decline, and Bielema certainly deserves some of the blame for it. But I believe he'll grow from this season as a coach and do a better job in 2009.


Alex from Tempe, Ariz., writes: What should Northwestern do at QB when Bacher is healthy again? After watching Kafka slice through the Minnesota defense I think keeping him on the bench would be a waste of his talent. My buddy thinks they should put Kafka in the backfield with Bacher as he seems a more capable runner than Conteh. I think Kafka should replace Bacher on select series to throw a curveball to the defense. Your thoughts?

Adam Rittenberg: This is a tough call. I think C.J. Bacher still has one more good game left in him, but his track record with interceptions remains very troubling. Mike Kafka showed last Saturday that he can be a viable weapon who needs to be part of the game plan whether or not Bacher starts. In many ways, Kafka fits the spread offense better because of his running ability. If he improves his passing during the offseason, he'll be solid in 2009. Forget about using the two together. Not going to happen. But your idea of using Kafka in select series makes sense. Kafka could be especially dangerous in the red zone because defenses have to respect his scrambling skills.


Jim from Scranton, Pa., writes: Adam, If Penn State does in fact win out the rest of the season and is withheld from the opportunity of playing for the national championship this will be the second undefeated season as a member of the Big Ten where they have not gotten the opportunity to be #1at the end of the season. The main reason for that as you know is their "weak schedule" and "weak conference", so If I am JoePa (or unnamed successor), or the AD at Penn State I see that as a clear message stating that unless we leave the Big Ten we will never see a national championship game again. What do you think Penn State can do to improve this status since the pollsters will always say the Big Ten is weak. Do you think Penn State officials would consider leaving the Big Ten conference? and if so where to? the Big 12 and SEC aren't geographically feasible and the Big East is even weaker than the Big Ten?

Adam Rittenberg: I understand your point, but Penn State isn't going anywhere, even if the team gets left out of the championship game again. As you mention, the Big East is the only conference that makes sense and it's weaker than the Big Ten. Keep in mind that Big Ten teams have played for the national championship four times since Penn State was shut out in 1994. So while the league's perception could contribute to Penn State getting shut out this season, in most cases Big Ten teams have made the cut. What I don't understand is how Penn State doesn't get more credit for crushing Oregon State on Sept. 6. Criticize the other three nonconference opponents, but Oregon State beat USC less than three weeks after getting maimed by the Nittany Lions.


Kevin from Davenport, Iowa, writes: What are the chances that Penn State comes in overconfident next week and Iowa pulls of the upset in the harsh environment of Kinnick Stadium?

Adam Rittenberg: There's a better chance the Lions come in rusty than overconfident. Most Big Ten teams have really struggled coming off bye weeks, and though Penn State certainly needed a mental and physical respite, a slow start is possible at Kinnick. But this Nittany Lions teams seems pretty grounded and will respect Iowa, which has been in every game this season. Being on the road also will get Penn State's attention. The Lions will be ready to go.

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