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Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Preseason projections: East Division

By Josh Moyer

Sometimes, math is fun -- and today is one of those days.

Based on our preseason Football Power Index (FPI), ESPN Stats & Info came up with projections for conference and overall records, in addition to the odds for specific games and winning the conference. One thing to note, as well: The projected overall wins and losses won't always add up to 12.

We covered the West Division on Monday. So, without further ado, here is the East:

Indiana Hoosiers

Strength of schedule: 45

Projected overall record: 7.03 wins, 5.01 losses

Projected conference record: 4.01 wins, 3.99 losses

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 1.8 percent

Three interesting games: vs. Michigan State – 49.9 percent predicted chance to win; vs. Penn State – 62.8 percent predicted chance to win (win by 5 points); at Michigan – 24.6 percent predicted chance to win (lose by 10.6 points)

Synopsis: It’s safe to say Hoosiers fans would take this projected record, since 7-5 would be Indiana’s best record since at least 2007. Indiana was favored over both Maryland and Rutgers, but the most surprising matchup was definitely Michigan State. Somehow, the Hoosiers were only slight underdogs as the numbers gave them a chance that nearly amounts to a coin-flip.

 




Maryland Terrapins

Strength of schedule: 26

Projected overall record: 6.42 wins, 5.60 losses

Projected conference record: 3.47 wins, 4.53 losses

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 1.3 percent

Three interesting games: vs. Iowa – 57.6 percent predicted chance to win (win by 2.9 points); at Penn State – 45.7 percent predicted chance to win (lose by 1.7 points); vs. Michigan State – 49.3 percent predicted chance to win (lose by 0.3 points)

Synopsis: The Terps are favored in their first four games, all of which are nonconference matchups, but it gets a lot more difficult after that. If Maryland can end up making it to a bowl, it’ll be a huge positive. But, according to these numbers, they might wind up right on the bubble.

 




Michigan Wolverines

Strength of schedule: 44

Projected overall record: 8.87 wins, 3.35 losses

Projected conference record: 5.45 wins, 2.55 losses

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 12.7 percent

Three interesting games: at Notre Dame – 54.7 percent predicted chance to win (win by 1.8 points); at Michigan State – 52.4 percent predicted chance to win (win by 0.9 points); at Ohio State – 29 percent predicted chance to win (lose by 8.6 points)

Synopsis: The numbers here really like the Wolverines, as they’re favored in the first 11 games. (The lone exception on the season, of course, is Game No. 12 against Ohio State.) Michigan will hope to avoid déjà vu in the opener by pounding Appalachian State, unlike in 2007. The odds of a Michigan loss to the Mountaineers this time around are about 167 to 1.

 




Michigan State Spartans

Strength of schedule: 52

Projected overall record: 7.79 wins, 4.32 losses

Projected conference record: 4.72 wins, 3.28 wins

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 5.9 percent

Three interesting games: at Oregon – 9.9 percent predicted chance to win (lose by 19.9 points);  at Indiana – 50.1 percent predicted chance to win; at Maryland – 50.7 percent chance to win (win by 0.3 points)

Synopsis: If sportsbooks started using these odds, something tells me there would be quite an avalanche of bets on Michigan State. For one reason or another, the Spartans just aren’t getting much love here. The Wolverines are actually projected to win more games. Overall, Michigan State is favored in nine contests but is only a 55-percent favorite or better in six of those. ESPN Stats & Info plans to update these numbers once the season starts, so it wouldn’t be much of a stretch to think these odds will end up changing in the Spartans’ favor. But, for now, the odds just don’t like MSU.

 




Ohio State Buckeyes

Strength of schedule: 38

Projected overall record: 10.46 wins, 2.15 losses

Projected conference record: 6.46 wins, 1.54 losses

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 40.9 percent

Three interesting games: at Penn State – 76.7 percent predicted chance to win (win by 11.2 points); at Michigan State – 65.7 percent predicted chance to win (win by 6.2 points); vs. Michigan – 71 percent predicted chance to win (win by 8.6 points)

Synopsis: Only three teams in the nation -- Florida State, Oregon, Marshall -- are projected to win more games than the Buckeyes. So, once again, Ohio State is favored to win the Big Ten and do big things on a national scale. It’s given a 7.6 percent chance to win out, and it’s favored by at least 65 percent in every game it plays.

 




Penn State Nittany Lions

Strength of schedule: 50

Projected overall record: 6.85 wins, 5.15 losses

Projected conference record: 3.57 wins, 4.43 losses

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0 percent

Three interesting games: vs. UCF (neutral field) – 51.8 percent predicted chance to win (win by 0.6 points); at Michigan – 21.1 percent predicted chance to win (lose by 12.4 points); at Indiana – 37.2 percent predicted chance to win (lose by 5 points)

Synopsis: Expectations are varied for the Nittany Lions, but the numbers favor them in eight individual games. (The reason the projected record is lower because they’re narrow favorites in several matchups). If PSU can finish with seven wins, it should be a positive season for the program. On a side note, against newcomers Rutgers and Maryland, the Lions are favored by less than two points.

 




Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Strength of schedule: 20

Projected overall record: 4.81 wins, 7.19 losses

Projected conference record: 2.30 wins, 5.70 losses

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0.1 percent

Three interesting games: at Washington State – 33.1 percent predicted chance to win (lose by 6.8 points); vs. Penn State – 47 percent predicted chance to win (lose by 1.1 points); at Maryland – 27.7 percent predicted chance to win (lose by 9.2 points)

Synopsis: Rutgers has the hardest schedule in the conference, according to ESPN Stats & Info, which might explain why it’s the only team in the division to be projected to win fewer than six games. The odds it wins the Big Ten are 1,000 to 1, and it’s favored in just two matchups – against FCS Howard and Tulane.