Thursday, November 1, 2012
Big Ten predictions: Week 10
By Adam Rittenberg and Brian Bennett
Coaches always talk about making it a November to remember. After a mostly forgettable week of predictions to end October, that's probably a good thing for our predictions.
The race is tightening a bit, as Brian Bennett gained on Adam Rittenberg, who still leads in the season standings by three games. Five games are on tap in Week 10, including several that will shape the races in both the Legends and Leaders divisions.
Let's get to it ...
MICHIGAN at MINNESOTA
Brian Bennett: The Jug game should be closer than it has been in recent years, as Minnesota is better and will be at home. But Michigan still has a big edge, as long as Denard Robinson is healthy enough to play. All indications are that he'll be fine, and that means trouble for the Gophers' defense. Robinson goes for the Jug-ular with 200 rushing yards, and the Wolverines pump the breaks on the Philip Nelson hype with a strong defensive performance. ... Michigan 31, Minnesota 17
Adam Rittenberg: You truly are the pun-isher, Bennett. This is a dangerous game for Michigan as it visits a Minnesota team playing with renewed confidence under Nelson. The Gophers jump ahead early behind a Nelson touchdown run, but Michigan eventually finds its bearings and attacks a defense that has been vulnerable to the ground game. Robinson racks up 110 yards and two scores, and Fitz Toussaint adds a key second-half rushing touchdown. Nelson starts strong, but commits a second-half turnover as Michigan escapes with the Jug. ... Michigan 24, Minnesota 16
IOWA at INDIANA
Adam Rittenberg: This one certainly could go either way, but Indiana has the momentum after finally getting over the hump in a Big Ten game. Can the Hoosiers win back-to-back league contests for the first time since 2007? I say yes. Indiana gets a good mix of offense from QB Nate Sudfeld and running back Stephen Houston, who runs for a touchdown and hauls in another. Iowa running back Damon Bullock goes for 125 rush yards and two scores, but the Hawkeyes' offense can't translate yards into points. Hoosiers cornerback Greg Heban intercepts James Vandenberg to seal the win for IU. ... Indiana 31, Iowa 27
Brian Bennett: A lot of people will be picking Indiana this week as the Hoosiers seem to have all the momentum. Ah, but Kirk Ferentz's teams are most dangerous when counted out. This is still a major step up from Illinois for IU, which has trouble handling its (mild) success. Bullock runs for 150 yards and a pair of scores and Micah Hyde grabs a key interception to dash the Hoosiers' Leaders daydreams. ... Iowa 28, Indiana 25
No. 20 NEBRASKA at MICHIGAN STATE
Brian Bennett: The Spartans are at home, have that lock-down defense and should play with more confidence on offense after last week's win at Wisconsin. But ... I just remember how easily Nebraska shut down a much better Michigan State attack last year in Lincoln and how well the Blackshirts normally match up with pro-style passing teams. And even though Taylor Martinez and the Huskers won't score as much as they usually do, they will put up too many points for the Spartans. Martinez overcomes a couple of turnovers and leads a patented Nebraska comeback win. ... Nebraska 23, Michigan State 16
Adam Rittenberg: Maybe Michigan State finally has turned the corner, but I also like this matchup for Nebraska. Pelini's defenses feast on pro-style offenses, and Michigan State hasn't had a good one this season. The Spartans score an early touchdown off of a Nebraska turnover, but the Huskers eventually settle down. QB Taylor Martinez connects with receiver Kenny Bell for a score and several long passes, and while the Huskers struggle to get in the end zone, Brett Maher goes 4-for-4 on field-goal attempts. Spartans running back Le'Veon Bell records another 100-yard rushing performance, but he needs at least 30 carries to get there. ... Nebraska 19, Michigan State 17
ILLINOIS at OHIO STATE
Adam Rittenberg: Unless the Buckeyes decide to start their open week early, they'll cruise against the overmatched, mistake-prone Illini. Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde combine for 300 rush yards and five touchdowns as Ohio State builds a big lead by the third quarter and puts it on cruise control. Backup QB Kenny Guiton gets extended playing time and fires a touchdown pass. Illinois doesn't quit and scores some touchdowns in garbage time. I've got the Buckeyes by 22, the number of pounds Tim Beckman says he has lost this season. ... Ohio State 45, Illinois 23
Brian Bennett: Beckman and Urban Meyer are good friends. I point this out only to say that Meyer might be more hesitant than usual to run up the score. Because that's all that's really standing between a huge Ohio State blowout here. Illinois just isn't doing much right in any phase of the game and is running into a buzz saw. Miller and Carlos Hyde each run for 100 yards and Miller throws for a pair of scores before the Buckeyes starters rest for much of the fourth quarter. ... Ohio State 38, Illinois 7
PENN STATE at PURDUE
Brian Bennett: Could I see Penn State having a letdown after the Ohio State loss while going on the road? I suppose. But this Nittany Lions team knows that its opportunities are dwindling, and Ross-Ade Stadium could be a ghost town as Danny Hope's support is dwindling by the day. Purdue, as per usual, scores quickly but then stalls against Penn State's defense, which picks off Robert Marve twice. Bill Belton has his best day as a Lion by scoring three touchdowns as the Boilers' misery continues. ... Penn State 31, Purdue 14
Adam Rittenberg: Purdue has burned me too many times this season, and while I could see the desperate Boilers making one last stand, Penn State is superior on both sides of the ball. The Matt McGloin-Allen Robinson connection cranks up for two touchdown strikes, and Penn State linebacker Gerald Hodges records a defensive score on a fumble return. Marve plays well early but struggles in the fourth quarter, as Penn State responds once again. ... Penn State 28, Purdue 21
Wisconsin and Northwestern are both off.
Adam Rittenberg: 56-18 (.757)
Brian Bennett: 53-21 (.716)