Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Big Ten bowl predictions, Part II
By Adam Rittenberg and Brian Bennett
The Big Ten is off to a rocky start in the postseason. Our predictions are faring slightly better, but there are five games to go.
We made our picks for the first two Big Ten bowls last week and both went 1-1. The overall season race remains all square.
New Year's Day will feature Nebraska in the TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl, Iowa in the Outback Bowl, Wisconsin in the Capital One Bowl and Michigan State in the Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO. Ohio State wraps up the Big Ten bowl slate Friday in the Discover Orange Bowl.
Let's get started.
TAXSLAYER.COM GATOR BOWL
Nebraska vs. Georgia; 11 a.m. ET Wednesday; Jacksonville, Fla.
Brian Bennett's pick: Nebraska should be as healthy as it has been since midseason, and I expect the Huskers to put together a pretty good showing. Ameer Abdullah will enjoy coming back to the south with 130 rushing yards and two scores. Ultimately, though, the Nebraska defense has no answer for Todd Gurley, who churns out 175 yards and three scores, and a late Tommy Armstrong Jr. interception seals it for the Dawgs for the second straight year.
Georgia 31, Nebraska 23
Adam Rittenberg's pick: Motivation could be a factor in this one as both teams had much higher aspirations this season. Neither has its starting quarterback, although Nebraska has played without Taylor Martinez a lot longer than Georgia has without Aaron Murray. But the Bulldogs remain explosive on offense with running back Gurley, who gashes Nebraska for 140 yards and two touchdowns. The Huskers lead early and get another big game from Abdullah, but they commit two costly second-half turnovers and Georgia rallies behind Gurley and Hutson Mason.
Georgia 34, Nebraska 27
Iowa vs. LSU; 1 p.m. ET Wednesday; Tampa
Rittenberg's pick: LSU has more speed and overall talent, but I really like Iowa's chances as the Hawkeyes typically play well in bowls and have walked a very similar path to the 2008 season, which ended with an Outback Bowl win against an SEC foe (South Carolina). The Iowa defense does enough against an LSU team that no longer has star quarterback Zach Mettenberger. LSU leads early thanks to Odell Beckham Jr. and its return game, but Iowa keeps things close and has a big fourth quarter on offense. Jake Rudock fires the winning touchdown to C.J. Fiedorowicz in the final minute.
Iowa 20, LSU 17
Bennett's pick: Iowa brings some momentum into this game and a defense that's really playing well against a new LSU quarterback. So don't count the Hawkeyes out. I even think Iowa will be the more motivated team and will jump on the Tigers early with a couple of nice scoring drives. But I'm just not sure the Hawkeyes have the speed and athleticism to counter Les Miles' team. LSU pulls off the late win this time, with Jeremy Hill scoring the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute
LSU 24, Iowa 20
CAPITAL ONE BOWL
Wisconsin vs. South Carolina: 1 p.m. ET Wednesday; Orlando, Fla.
Bennett's pick: Do we see the Wisconsin that was so good during most of the season, or the Badgers who went out with a whimper on Senior Day? I think it will be the former, as a large senior class is highly motivated to make up for that loss to Penn State and to get over the bowl hump. The running game led by James White and Melvin Gordon will help neutralize South Carolina's pass rush, and neither have to worry about being decapitated by Jadeveon Clowney, who spends the second half dreaming of sports cars. Chris Borland forces a Connor Shaw fumble on the Gamecocks' final drive to go out on top.
Wisconsin 20, South Carolina 17
Rittenberg's pick: The Badgers aren't a good team when playing from behind and relying heavily on quarterback Joel Stave to make big plays. Fortunately, Wisconsin jumps ahead early in this one behind Gordon, who breaks off some big runs in the first half. It will be close throughout but the Badgers hold a 2-1 edge in turnover margin, and respond well after the Senior Day debacle against Penn State. Clowney has a ho-hum ending to his college career, while Borland and a decorated senior class finally get a bowl win. Gordon's second touchdown in the final minutes proves to be the difference.
Wisconsin 24, South Carolina 21
ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY VIZIO
Michigan State vs. Stanford; 5 p.m. ET Saturday; Pasadena, Calif.
Rittenberg's pick: By far the toughest game to call, I've gone back and forth all week on my pick. I went with Michigan State in the Big Ten championship because it had more experience on that stage than Ohio State did. Once again, I'm going with the team more accustomed to this particular spotlight. I love this MSU team, but Stanford is playing in its fourth consecutive BCS bowl game. The Spartans aren't simply happy to be here, but they'll make a few costly mistakes against a sound Cardinal team. Max Bullough's absence isn't too significant, but Stanford capitalizes on strong field position from Ty Montgomery and picks off two Connor Cook passes, the second in the closing minute as Michigan State drives for the winning score.
Stanford 21, Michigan State 17
Bennett's pick: The loss of Bullough is huge for the Spartans. But I think the Spartans defense can still hold up well enough. The real key will be whether Cook can play nearly as well as he did in the Big Ten title game, because there likely won't be much running room for Jeremy Langford. Cook won't throw for 300 yards again, but he will do just enough damage and toss two touchdowns. There's every reason to pick Stanford after the Bullough suspension, but Michigan State just seems like a team of destiny to me.
Michigan State 17, Stanford 16
DISCOVER ORANGE BOWL
Ohio State vs. Clemson; 8:30 p.m. ET Friday; Miami Gardens, Fla.
Bennett's pick: The potential loss of Bradley Roby and Noah Spence is devastating news for a Buckeyes' defense that was already going to be under the gun in this game. The Big Ten just can't prepare you for the type of speed and playmaking ability Clemson has at receiver, and Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins will end their Tigers career in a big way while connecting for three scores. Ohio State finds lots of success running the ball with Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde, getting a combined 250 yards and four touchdowns out of them, but the Buckeyes just can't match Clemson score for score.
Clemson 38, Ohio State 35
Rittenberg's pick: Another tough one to call, as I don't like Ohio State's injury situation, especially against Clemson's big-play receivers. How motivated are these Buckeyes? Often times teams that fall just shy of the national title game don't bring it in their bowl. Still, I've seen too many ACC teams fall flat on their faces when the lights are brightest, and Ohio State has been strong in BCS bowls over the years. Ohio State has the edge at both head coach and quarterback in this game, as I expect Miller to perform well both with his arm and his legs. Both offenses show up, but I'll take the running team with Urban Meyer at the helm. Hyde turns in a big fourth quarter as Ohio State rallies late.
Ohio State 41, Clemson 38