Big Ten: Big Ten team outlook 102109
Posted by ESPN.com's Adam Rittenberg
Wisconsin Badgers
Record: 5-2
Remaining schedule: open, vs. Purdue, at Indiana, vs. Michigan, at Northwestern, open, at Hawaii
An open date probably arrives at a good time for Wisconsin, which needs to get back to the things it did in the first five weeks. Quarterback Scott Tolzien must recapture the efficiency he displayed in September and avoid mistakes after tossing five of his eight interceptions in the last two games (both losses). Wisconsin remains an offense built around the run game, play-action passes and no major mistakes, so Tolzien needs to rebound against Purdue. The offensive line has been banged up for much of the year but should improve down the stretch. Defensively, Wisconsin needs more of the same from standout end O'Brien Schofield, who has become much more than a name on a scouting report. Dave Doeren's unit is certainly much more aggressive this fall, and players are constantly in the opposing backfield. Linebacker Mike Taylor is a big loss, and Wisconsin needs freshman sensation Chris Borland to continue his impressive play. Despite back-to-back losses, the schedule still sets up favorably for a run to a January bowl game.
Best-case scenario: Tolzien comes back strong after the bye week and turns in an interception-free performance against Purdue. Running back John Clay stays healthy and punishes defenses, while tight end Garrett Graham and wide receiver Nick Toon sizzle in the play-action passing attack. Wisconsin sweeps its final five games and reaches the Capital One Bowl or the Outback Bowl.
Worst-case scenario: The 5-0 start turns out to be a farce and the mistakes we saw against both Ohio State and Iowa continue down the stretch. Tolzien keeps throwing picks and gets pulled in favor of Curt Phillips. Clay can't stay healthy and neither can the offensive line. The defense gets overaggressive at times and has breakdowns in the secondary. Wisconsin fails to capitalize on the soft slate, winning only one or two more games to reach a minor bowl.
Prediction: Alamo Bowl. Wisconsin finishes 9-3 or 8-4.
Wisconsin Badgers
Record: 5-2
Remaining schedule: open, vs. Purdue, at Indiana, vs. Michigan, at Northwestern, open, at Hawaii
An open date probably arrives at a good time for Wisconsin, which needs to get back to the things it did in the first five weeks. Quarterback Scott Tolzien must recapture the efficiency he displayed in September and avoid mistakes after tossing five of his eight interceptions in the last two games (both losses). Wisconsin remains an offense built around the run game, play-action passes and no major mistakes, so Tolzien needs to rebound against Purdue. The offensive line has been banged up for much of the year but should improve down the stretch. Defensively, Wisconsin needs more of the same from standout end O'Brien Schofield, who has become much more than a name on a scouting report. Dave Doeren's unit is certainly much more aggressive this fall, and players are constantly in the opposing backfield. Linebacker Mike Taylor is a big loss, and Wisconsin needs freshman sensation Chris Borland to continue his impressive play. Despite back-to-back losses, the schedule still sets up favorably for a run to a January bowl game.
Best-case scenario: Tolzien comes back strong after the bye week and turns in an interception-free performance against Purdue. Running back John Clay stays healthy and punishes defenses, while tight end Garrett Graham and wide receiver Nick Toon sizzle in the play-action passing attack. Wisconsin sweeps its final five games and reaches the Capital One Bowl or the Outback Bowl.
Worst-case scenario: The 5-0 start turns out to be a farce and the mistakes we saw against both Ohio State and Iowa continue down the stretch. Tolzien keeps throwing picks and gets pulled in favor of Curt Phillips. Clay can't stay healthy and neither can the offensive line. The defense gets overaggressive at times and has breakdowns in the secondary. Wisconsin fails to capitalize on the soft slate, winning only one or two more games to reach a minor bowl.
Prediction: Alamo Bowl. Wisconsin finishes 9-3 or 8-4.
Posted by ESPN.com's Adam Rittenberg
Purdue Boilermakers
Record: 2-5
Remaining schedule: vs. Illinois, at Wisconsin, at Michigan, vs. Michigan State, at Indiana
The Boilermakers finally have some concrete evidence to support their belief that they're a good team. How they respond in the final five games will go a long way toward determining where this program goes under new head coach Danny Hope. Purdue clearly has enough weapons on offense, including Big Ten passing leader Joey Elliott, Big Ten receptions leader Keith Smith and talented running back Ralph Bolden. But turnovers kill scoring chances, and Purdue must cut down on its giveaways, which were a problem even in the Ohio State victory. If the offense can play mistake-free for extended stretches, the Boilers should be in games until the end. Purdue's defense has made steady progress and looked dominant at times against Ohio State, as end Ryan Kerrigan had a career day. Kerrigan and Mike Neal anchor the line, and a healthy Jason Werner is making a difference at linebacker. Purdue faces a must-win Saturday against Illinois before playing the spoiler role down the stretch.
Best-case scenario: The Boilers use the Ohio State win as a springboard and turn their improved play into more wins. Elliott cuts down on his turnovers and wideouts Smith and Aaron Valentin continue to blossom, while Bolden once again becomes a weapon on the ground. The defense continues to turn the tables on its opponents, forcing turnovers in bunches. Purdue goes 4-1 down the stretch and gets into a lower-tier bowl game.
Worst-case scenario: Things revert to form again, as Purdue keeps giving the ball away for points and not forcing enough miscues from the opposition. A close loss against woeful Illinois drops the team's confidence level, and Purdue scratches out only one more victory. The Boilers finish with their fewest number of wins since a 3-8 campaign in 1996, right before Joe Tiller arrived.
Prediction: No bowl, but two more victories and a bit of momentum generated for 2010.
Purdue Boilermakers
Record: 2-5
Remaining schedule: vs. Illinois, at Wisconsin, at Michigan, vs. Michigan State, at Indiana
The Boilermakers finally have some concrete evidence to support their belief that they're a good team. How they respond in the final five games will go a long way toward determining where this program goes under new head coach Danny Hope. Purdue clearly has enough weapons on offense, including Big Ten passing leader Joey Elliott, Big Ten receptions leader Keith Smith and talented running back Ralph Bolden. But turnovers kill scoring chances, and Purdue must cut down on its giveaways, which were a problem even in the Ohio State victory. If the offense can play mistake-free for extended stretches, the Boilers should be in games until the end. Purdue's defense has made steady progress and looked dominant at times against Ohio State, as end Ryan Kerrigan had a career day. Kerrigan and Mike Neal anchor the line, and a healthy Jason Werner is making a difference at linebacker. Purdue faces a must-win Saturday against Illinois before playing the spoiler role down the stretch.
Best-case scenario: The Boilers use the Ohio State win as a springboard and turn their improved play into more wins. Elliott cuts down on his turnovers and wideouts Smith and Aaron Valentin continue to blossom, while Bolden once again becomes a weapon on the ground. The defense continues to turn the tables on its opponents, forcing turnovers in bunches. Purdue goes 4-1 down the stretch and gets into a lower-tier bowl game.
Worst-case scenario: Things revert to form again, as Purdue keeps giving the ball away for points and not forcing enough miscues from the opposition. A close loss against woeful Illinois drops the team's confidence level, and Purdue scratches out only one more victory. The Boilers finish with their fewest number of wins since a 3-8 campaign in 1996, right before Joe Tiller arrived.
Prediction: No bowl, but two more victories and a bit of momentum generated for 2010.
Posted by ESPN.com's Adam Rittenberg
Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 6-1
Remaining schedule: at Michigan, at Northwestern, vs. Ohio State, vs. Indiana, at Michigan State
One way or another, we're going to learn a lot about Penn State in these final five games, all of which come against teams with winning records. The Nittany Lions boast a gradually improving offense and a lockdown defense that hasn't allowed a first-half touchdown and ranks second nationally in points allowed (8.7 ppg). Still, as head coach Joe Paterno accurately put it this week, "We've been fortunate. The only tough game we've been in we've lost [to Iowa]." Though Penn State hasn't faced an offense ranked in the top 70 nationally, the Lions' defense has the potential to maintain its dominating play. Sean Lee is getting healthier, and he'll form an explosive linebacking corps with Navorro Bowman and Josh Hull when he starts playing normal reps. The defensive line also is gaining steam behind tackles Jared Odrick and Ollie Ogbu and end Jack Crawford. I'm not sold on the secondary, so we'll see how that group progresses. On offense, the line seems to be jelling after a slow start. Evan Royster remains the Big Ten's most complete back, and he could have a monster second half. Quarterback Daryll Clark has been good aside from the Iowa loss and needs to continue using his weapons at wide receiver and tight end.
Best-case scenario: The defense doesn't budge an inch against tougher competition and produces five or six All-Big Ten standouts. Royster turns it on and Penn State's offensive line gains more confidence. The Lions sweep their final five games and Iowa stumbles twice, giving Penn State a return trip to the Rose Bowl.
Worst-case scenario: Better opponents expose the flaws Penn State has masked because of its easy schedule. The Lions look like a different team away from Happy Valley and drop games to Michigan, Michigan State and possibly Northwestern. Penn State wins only one to two games the rest of the way and has to settle for the Alamo Bowl or the Champs Sports Bowl.
Prediction: Fiesta Bowl. Penn State loses a game but still heads back to a BCS bowl.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 6-1
Remaining schedule: at Michigan, at Northwestern, vs. Ohio State, vs. Indiana, at Michigan State
One way or another, we're going to learn a lot about Penn State in these final five games, all of which come against teams with winning records. The Nittany Lions boast a gradually improving offense and a lockdown defense that hasn't allowed a first-half touchdown and ranks second nationally in points allowed (8.7 ppg). Still, as head coach Joe Paterno accurately put it this week, "We've been fortunate. The only tough game we've been in we've lost [to Iowa]." Though Penn State hasn't faced an offense ranked in the top 70 nationally, the Lions' defense has the potential to maintain its dominating play. Sean Lee is getting healthier, and he'll form an explosive linebacking corps with Navorro Bowman and Josh Hull when he starts playing normal reps. The defensive line also is gaining steam behind tackles Jared Odrick and Ollie Ogbu and end Jack Crawford. I'm not sold on the secondary, so we'll see how that group progresses. On offense, the line seems to be jelling after a slow start. Evan Royster remains the Big Ten's most complete back, and he could have a monster second half. Quarterback Daryll Clark has been good aside from the Iowa loss and needs to continue using his weapons at wide receiver and tight end.
Best-case scenario: The defense doesn't budge an inch against tougher competition and produces five or six All-Big Ten standouts. Royster turns it on and Penn State's offensive line gains more confidence. The Lions sweep their final five games and Iowa stumbles twice, giving Penn State a return trip to the Rose Bowl.
Worst-case scenario: Better opponents expose the flaws Penn State has masked because of its easy schedule. The Lions look like a different team away from Happy Valley and drop games to Michigan, Michigan State and possibly Northwestern. Penn State wins only one to two games the rest of the way and has to settle for the Alamo Bowl or the Champs Sports Bowl.
Prediction: Fiesta Bowl. Penn State loses a game but still heads back to a BCS bowl.
Posted by ESPN.com's Adam Rittenberg
Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 5-2
Remaining schedule: vs. Minnesota, vs. New Mexico State, at Penn State, vs. Iowa, at Michigan
It's getting a bit hot until the sweater vest right now, and head coach Jim Tressel and the Buckeyes know they can't afford any missteps down the stretch to continue their streak of Big Ten titles and BCS bowl appearances. Tressel and sophomore quarterback Terrelle Pryor find themselves in the eye of the storm right now after Saturday's turnover-filled loss to Purdue. It's imperative for Tressel and his staff to finally establish an offensive identity and put Pryor in the best position to succeed. Right now, he just doesn't look comfortable. Ohio State also needs to see improvement from its running backs and its offensive line. There are far fewer questions with a defense that has overcome the losses of several national award winners to rank 11th nationally in scoring (14 ppg) and ninth against the run (87.9 ypg). As long as stars like Kurt Coleman, Brian Rolle and Thaddeus Gibson keep doing what they're doing, Ohio State should be fine on that side of the ball. The schedule gets tough in November with games against Penn State, Iowa and Michigan, but Ohio State has typically been at its best down the stretch.
Best-case scenario: The offense finds its identity and Pryor makes a ton of progress, quieting his doubters as he flummoxes opposing defenders. The defense doesn't let up one bit and Ohio State sweeps its final five games. Iowa stumbles twice and the Buckeyes once again sit atop the Big Ten and head to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1997. Then they beat USC in a rematch.
Worst-case scenario: The offense never gets on track and Pryor's confidence steadily declines. The defense wears down and opponents exploit new players in the secondary for big pass plays. Ohio State drops two of its final three games and all of its valuable streaks -- Big Ten titles, BCS appearances, wins against Michigan -- go down the drain.
Prediction: Capital One Bowl. Ohio State loses one more game to either Penn State, Iowa or Michigan.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 5-2
Remaining schedule: vs. Minnesota, vs. New Mexico State, at Penn State, vs. Iowa, at Michigan
It's getting a bit hot until the sweater vest right now, and head coach Jim Tressel and the Buckeyes know they can't afford any missteps down the stretch to continue their streak of Big Ten titles and BCS bowl appearances. Tressel and sophomore quarterback Terrelle Pryor find themselves in the eye of the storm right now after Saturday's turnover-filled loss to Purdue. It's imperative for Tressel and his staff to finally establish an offensive identity and put Pryor in the best position to succeed. Right now, he just doesn't look comfortable. Ohio State also needs to see improvement from its running backs and its offensive line. There are far fewer questions with a defense that has overcome the losses of several national award winners to rank 11th nationally in scoring (14 ppg) and ninth against the run (87.9 ypg). As long as stars like Kurt Coleman, Brian Rolle and Thaddeus Gibson keep doing what they're doing, Ohio State should be fine on that side of the ball. The schedule gets tough in November with games against Penn State, Iowa and Michigan, but Ohio State has typically been at its best down the stretch.
Best-case scenario: The offense finds its identity and Pryor makes a ton of progress, quieting his doubters as he flummoxes opposing defenders. The defense doesn't let up one bit and Ohio State sweeps its final five games. Iowa stumbles twice and the Buckeyes once again sit atop the Big Ten and head to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1997. Then they beat USC in a rematch.
Worst-case scenario: The offense never gets on track and Pryor's confidence steadily declines. The defense wears down and opponents exploit new players in the secondary for big pass plays. Ohio State drops two of its final three games and all of its valuable streaks -- Big Ten titles, BCS appearances, wins against Michigan -- go down the drain.
Prediction: Capital One Bowl. Ohio State loses one more game to either Penn State, Iowa or Michigan.
Second-half outlook: Northwestern
October, 21, 2009
10/21/09
2:00
PM ET
By
Adam Rittenberg | ESPN.com
Posted by ESPN.com's Adam Rittenberg
Northwestern Wildcats
Record: 4-3
Remaining schedule: vs. Indiana, vs. Penn State, at Iowa, at Illinois, vs. Wisconsin
The Wildcats were unable to fully capitalize on a favorable opening schedule, and they have some work left to reach back-to-back bowls for just the second time in team history. A defense that really struggled early on seems to have turned things around, but injuries are piling up at key spots. If Northwestern can simply stay healthy on defense and get more production from the front four, particularly end Corey Wootton, it should win a few more games. There's no mystery about what the Wildcats need to improve on offense, and it's a run game that ranks 10th in the Big Ten and 97th nationally. Quarterback Mike Kafka has been fabulous on short to intermediate passes, but the spread offense still needs production from the run game to fully surge. Northwestern will have a tough time building on the momentum it generated in 2008, but it can't afford to miss a bowl game with such a cushy slate.
Best-case scenario: The defense finally stays healthy and keeps Northwestern afloat in every game down the stretch. Stephen Simmons or Arby Fields emerges as a viable running option and the offensive line finally surges to take pressure off of Kafka. Northwestern beats Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin and pulls an upset against Penn State or Iowa to finish 8-4 and make a decent bowl.
Worst-case scenario: A one-dimensional offense can't turn yards into points and the defense never gets healthy. Northwestern shows that it can't reload after losing key contributors on both sides of the ball to graduation or injury. The Wildcats lose their remaining games to finish an extremely disappointing 4-8.
Prediction: Bowl game, but barely.
Northwestern Wildcats
Record: 4-3
Remaining schedule: vs. Indiana, vs. Penn State, at Iowa, at Illinois, vs. Wisconsin
The Wildcats were unable to fully capitalize on a favorable opening schedule, and they have some work left to reach back-to-back bowls for just the second time in team history. A defense that really struggled early on seems to have turned things around, but injuries are piling up at key spots. If Northwestern can simply stay healthy on defense and get more production from the front four, particularly end Corey Wootton, it should win a few more games. There's no mystery about what the Wildcats need to improve on offense, and it's a run game that ranks 10th in the Big Ten and 97th nationally. Quarterback Mike Kafka has been fabulous on short to intermediate passes, but the spread offense still needs production from the run game to fully surge. Northwestern will have a tough time building on the momentum it generated in 2008, but it can't afford to miss a bowl game with such a cushy slate.
Best-case scenario: The defense finally stays healthy and keeps Northwestern afloat in every game down the stretch. Stephen Simmons or Arby Fields emerges as a viable running option and the offensive line finally surges to take pressure off of Kafka. Northwestern beats Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin and pulls an upset against Penn State or Iowa to finish 8-4 and make a decent bowl.
Worst-case scenario: A one-dimensional offense can't turn yards into points and the defense never gets healthy. Northwestern shows that it can't reload after losing key contributors on both sides of the ball to graduation or injury. The Wildcats lose their remaining games to finish an extremely disappointing 4-8.
Prediction: Bowl game, but barely.
Posted by ESPN.com's Adam Rittenberg
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Record: 4-3
Remaining schedule: at Ohio State, vs. Michigan State, vs. Illinois, vs. South Dakota State, at Iowa
There should be a strong sense of urgency for Tim Brewster's squad in the second half. Minnesota is the Big Ten's most experienced team, and the Gophers will lose their best offensive player (wide receiver Eric Decker) and their terrific linebacking corps (Lee Campbell, Nate Triplett and Simoni Lawrence) after the season. So it's critical that the Gophers get back to the postseason and finish stronger than they did last year, when they dropped their final six games. The defense has made obvious progress, and all three linebackers rank among the league's top 15 tacklers. Minnesota must do a much better job of getting off the field as it ranks last in the Big Ten in third-down defense (50.9 percent). But the offense is certainly the top priority as the Gophers try to establish some consistency from their running backs as well as quarterback Adam Weber. The system is no longer new, and Minnesota needs its offensive line to step up and create room for Kevin Whaley, DeLeon Eskridge and Duane Bennett. The Gophers also need to take care of business at home, given their tough road slate.
Best-case scenario: The offense starts to click, holes open in the running game and Weber recaptures the form he showed at times the past two seasons. Minnesota sweeps its three home games and manages to pull a big road upset to finish 8-4 and reach a warm-weather bowl game in Texas or Florida.
Worst-case scenario: Weber continues to struggle and the run game never gets going as opposing defenses do everything they can to take Decker out of the equation. The defense doesn't improve on third down and begins to get tired down the stretch. Minnesota drops its final four Big Ten games and misses the postseason at 5-7.
Prediction: Bowl game. Minnesota finishes 6-6 or 7-5.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Record: 4-3
Remaining schedule: at Ohio State, vs. Michigan State, vs. Illinois, vs. South Dakota State, at Iowa
There should be a strong sense of urgency for Tim Brewster's squad in the second half. Minnesota is the Big Ten's most experienced team, and the Gophers will lose their best offensive player (wide receiver Eric Decker) and their terrific linebacking corps (Lee Campbell, Nate Triplett and Simoni Lawrence) after the season. So it's critical that the Gophers get back to the postseason and finish stronger than they did last year, when they dropped their final six games. The defense has made obvious progress, and all three linebackers rank among the league's top 15 tacklers. Minnesota must do a much better job of getting off the field as it ranks last in the Big Ten in third-down defense (50.9 percent). But the offense is certainly the top priority as the Gophers try to establish some consistency from their running backs as well as quarterback Adam Weber. The system is no longer new, and Minnesota needs its offensive line to step up and create room for Kevin Whaley, DeLeon Eskridge and Duane Bennett. The Gophers also need to take care of business at home, given their tough road slate.
Best-case scenario: The offense starts to click, holes open in the running game and Weber recaptures the form he showed at times the past two seasons. Minnesota sweeps its three home games and manages to pull a big road upset to finish 8-4 and reach a warm-weather bowl game in Texas or Florida.
Worst-case scenario: Weber continues to struggle and the run game never gets going as opposing defenses do everything they can to take Decker out of the equation. The defense doesn't improve on third down and begins to get tired down the stretch. Minnesota drops its final four Big Ten games and misses the postseason at 5-7.
Prediction: Bowl game. Minnesota finishes 6-6 or 7-5.
Second-half outlook: Michigan State
October, 21, 2009
10/21/09
12:45
PM ET
By
Adam Rittenberg | ESPN.com
Posted by ESPN.com's Adam Rittenberg
Michigan State Spartans
Record: 4-3
Remaining schedule: vs. Iowa, at Minnesota, vs. Western Michigan, at Purdue, vs. Penn State
A three-game win streak has given Michigan State plenty to play for in the second half, but the Spartans can't afford to backslide. Michigan State's veteran-laden defense led by junior linebacker Greg Jones must build on its strong play the last three games, where, aside from a five-minute stretch late in the fourth quarter against Michigan, it has stifled opposing offenses. After being shredded earlier in the year, the Spartans secondary is starting to make game-changing plays, which needs to continue. The bigger questions remain with the offense, which needs continued progress from sophomore Kirk Cousins, the Big Ten's top-rated passer. True freshmen Larry Caper and Edwin Baker will hold down the run game the rest of the way, which is risky but also exciting to watch. Wideout Blair White has been brilliant, but Michigan State could use more production from its tight ends down the stretch. If the Spartans upset No. 6 Iowa on Saturday night, they could make a push for the league title.
Best-case scenario: The Spartans capitalize on their favorable schedule and win out to match last year's record (9-3). They share the league title at 7-1, and while their nonconference struggles keep them out of the Rose Bowl, they return to the Capital One Bowl and win this time. Jones leads the nation in tackles and then returns for his senior season, while Cousins leads the league in pass efficiency.
Worst-case scenario: Better competition once again dooms Michigan State, which gets thumped by both Iowa and Penn State. The Spartans lose their focus in road games against Minnesota and Purdue and win only one more game the rest of the way to finish at a very disappointing 5-7.
Prediction: Bowl game. Michigan State goes 3-2 or possibly 4-1 the rest of the way.
Michigan State Spartans
Record: 4-3
Remaining schedule: vs. Iowa, at Minnesota, vs. Western Michigan, at Purdue, vs. Penn State
A three-game win streak has given Michigan State plenty to play for in the second half, but the Spartans can't afford to backslide. Michigan State's veteran-laden defense led by junior linebacker Greg Jones must build on its strong play the last three games, where, aside from a five-minute stretch late in the fourth quarter against Michigan, it has stifled opposing offenses. After being shredded earlier in the year, the Spartans secondary is starting to make game-changing plays, which needs to continue. The bigger questions remain with the offense, which needs continued progress from sophomore Kirk Cousins, the Big Ten's top-rated passer. True freshmen Larry Caper and Edwin Baker will hold down the run game the rest of the way, which is risky but also exciting to watch. Wideout Blair White has been brilliant, but Michigan State could use more production from its tight ends down the stretch. If the Spartans upset No. 6 Iowa on Saturday night, they could make a push for the league title.
Best-case scenario: The Spartans capitalize on their favorable schedule and win out to match last year's record (9-3). They share the league title at 7-1, and while their nonconference struggles keep them out of the Rose Bowl, they return to the Capital One Bowl and win this time. Jones leads the nation in tackles and then returns for his senior season, while Cousins leads the league in pass efficiency.
Worst-case scenario: Better competition once again dooms Michigan State, which gets thumped by both Iowa and Penn State. The Spartans lose their focus in road games against Minnesota and Purdue and win only one more game the rest of the way to finish at a very disappointing 5-7.
Prediction: Bowl game. Michigan State goes 3-2 or possibly 4-1 the rest of the way.
Posted by ESPN.com's Adam Rittenberg
Michigan Wolverines
Record: 5-2
Remaining schedule: vs. Penn State, at Illinois, vs. Purdue, at Wisconsin, vs. Ohio State
There have been obvious upgrades for Michigan this season, but whether the team can take the next step remains to be seen. The schedule gets tougher in the second half, and the Wolverines must continue to evolve on offense and get better play from a defense that broke down too many times in the first seven games. The Notre Dame victory looks pretty solid, but Wolverines head coach Rich Rodriguez needs a signature conference win against Penn State, Wisconsin or Ohio State. Tate Forcier's health will be a key topic the rest of the way, though the freshman quarterback said this week that he's close to 100 percent after dealing with shoulder problems and a concussion. Michigan needs more consistency from its run game, which has looked good at times. Greg Robinson's defense has two pros in end Brandon Graham and cornerback Donovan Warren, but youth and depth are concerns. Young players must grow up fast down the stretch for Michigan to really make some noise in the Big Ten.
Best-case scenario: The Wolverines go 4-1 the rest of the way but end their losing streak to archrival Ohio State. Forcier stays healthy and the run game surges behind a confident offensive line. The defense has fewer breakdowns and starts changing games with turnovers. Michigan heads to Florida to play in the Capital One Bowl, which it won in 2008.
Worst-case scenario: Michigan gets blown out by Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State, raising questions about Rodriguez and how much progress actually was made in Year 2. Forcier can't stay healthy and backup Denard Robinson doesn't improve as a passer. Michigan stumbles against either Illinois or Purdue and finishes 6-6.
Prediction: Decent bowl game. Michigan finishes 8-4.
Michigan Wolverines
Record: 5-2
Remaining schedule: vs. Penn State, at Illinois, vs. Purdue, at Wisconsin, vs. Ohio State
There have been obvious upgrades for Michigan this season, but whether the team can take the next step remains to be seen. The schedule gets tougher in the second half, and the Wolverines must continue to evolve on offense and get better play from a defense that broke down too many times in the first seven games. The Notre Dame victory looks pretty solid, but Wolverines head coach Rich Rodriguez needs a signature conference win against Penn State, Wisconsin or Ohio State. Tate Forcier's health will be a key topic the rest of the way, though the freshman quarterback said this week that he's close to 100 percent after dealing with shoulder problems and a concussion. Michigan needs more consistency from its run game, which has looked good at times. Greg Robinson's defense has two pros in end Brandon Graham and cornerback Donovan Warren, but youth and depth are concerns. Young players must grow up fast down the stretch for Michigan to really make some noise in the Big Ten.
Best-case scenario: The Wolverines go 4-1 the rest of the way but end their losing streak to archrival Ohio State. Forcier stays healthy and the run game surges behind a confident offensive line. The defense has fewer breakdowns and starts changing games with turnovers. Michigan heads to Florida to play in the Capital One Bowl, which it won in 2008.
Worst-case scenario: Michigan gets blown out by Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State, raising questions about Rodriguez and how much progress actually was made in Year 2. Forcier can't stay healthy and backup Denard Robinson doesn't improve as a passer. Michigan stumbles against either Illinois or Purdue and finishes 6-6.
Prediction: Decent bowl game. Michigan finishes 8-4.
Posted by ESPN.com's Adam Rittenberg
Iowa Hawkeyes
Record: 7-0
Remaining schedule: at Michigan State, vs. Indiana, vs. Northwestern, at Ohio State, vs. Minnesota
After a spotless first half, Iowa steps into a new role as the team to beat in the Big Ten. Everyone will be targeting the Hawkeyes the rest of the way, but these players and coaches have shown they handle adversity extremely well. Iowa faces tough road tests at venues where they haven't won since 1995 (Spartan Stadium) and 1991 (Ohio Stadium). The home schedule looks fairly manageable, but little has come easy for Kirk Ferentz's team this season. The biggest key in the second half is the continued development of quarterback Ricky Stanzi and the offense. Stanzi threw eight interceptions in the first six games, three of which were returned for touchdowns. He played a clean second half against Wisconsin and seems to be clicking with tight end Tony Moeaki and wideout Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, which could then open up the run game. The defense must stay healthy and continue to make plays, but the unit is good enough to carry Iowa a long way.
Best-case scenario: The Hawkeyes win out and blow out a few teams along the way. Texas and USC stumble, clearing the path for Iowa to meet the SEC champion in the BCS title game. Stanzi takes care of the football and the only key interceptions are the ones the Hawkeyes' defense continues to make.
Worst-case scenario: Iowa drops both of its remaining road games and slips up once at home. Stanzi relapses and starts throwing picks again, and the defense wears down or gets hurt. Still, the Hawkeyes end up in a Jan. 1 bowl in Florida.
Prediction: BCS bowl (not saying which one). Iowa drops one of its remaining road games but wins the rest.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Record: 7-0
Remaining schedule: at Michigan State, vs. Indiana, vs. Northwestern, at Ohio State, vs. Minnesota
After a spotless first half, Iowa steps into a new role as the team to beat in the Big Ten. Everyone will be targeting the Hawkeyes the rest of the way, but these players and coaches have shown they handle adversity extremely well. Iowa faces tough road tests at venues where they haven't won since 1995 (Spartan Stadium) and 1991 (Ohio Stadium). The home schedule looks fairly manageable, but little has come easy for Kirk Ferentz's team this season. The biggest key in the second half is the continued development of quarterback Ricky Stanzi and the offense. Stanzi threw eight interceptions in the first six games, three of which were returned for touchdowns. He played a clean second half against Wisconsin and seems to be clicking with tight end Tony Moeaki and wideout Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, which could then open up the run game. The defense must stay healthy and continue to make plays, but the unit is good enough to carry Iowa a long way.
Best-case scenario: The Hawkeyes win out and blow out a few teams along the way. Texas and USC stumble, clearing the path for Iowa to meet the SEC champion in the BCS title game. Stanzi takes care of the football and the only key interceptions are the ones the Hawkeyes' defense continues to make.
Worst-case scenario: Iowa drops both of its remaining road games and slips up once at home. Stanzi relapses and starts throwing picks again, and the defense wears down or gets hurt. Still, the Hawkeyes end up in a Jan. 1 bowl in Florida.
Prediction: BCS bowl (not saying which one). Iowa drops one of its remaining road games but wins the rest.
Posted by ESPN.com's Adam Rittenberg
Indiana Hoosiers:
Record: 4-3
Remaining schedule: at Northwestern, at Iowa, vs. Wisconsin, at Penn State, vs. Purdue
After a mostly encouraging first half, Indiana finds itself with plenty to play for down the stretch, namely its second bowl appearance since 1993. Two more victories should do the trick and send the Hoosiers bowling for the second time in three years, but it won't be easy. Indiana's schedule gets significantly tougher down the stretch, as the Hoosiers play three teams ranked in the BCS standings plus 4-3 Northwestern. Quarterback Ben Chappell has been solid and wideouts Tandon Doss and Damarlo Belcher are playmaking threats, but they will need help from a run game that has been extremely inconsistent. Indiana went to the pistol formation to spark its rushing attack, and the time has come for that to happen. Defensively, the Hoosiers need their seniors like end Jammie Kirlew and linebacker Matt Mayberry to continue to step up, though breakdowns remain a problem with the unit.
Best-case scenario: The Hoosiers beat Northwestern and Purdue and pull off an upset in one of their other three games to finish at 7-5. They reach the postseason for the second time in three years after a 14-year drought.
Worst-case scenario: Indiana falls apart and drops its remaining five games. Injuries crop up at key spots and the defense can no longer overcome its shortcomings by forcing turnovers.
Prediction: No bowl.
Indiana Hoosiers:
Record: 4-3
Remaining schedule: at Northwestern, at Iowa, vs. Wisconsin, at Penn State, vs. Purdue
After a mostly encouraging first half, Indiana finds itself with plenty to play for down the stretch, namely its second bowl appearance since 1993. Two more victories should do the trick and send the Hoosiers bowling for the second time in three years, but it won't be easy. Indiana's schedule gets significantly tougher down the stretch, as the Hoosiers play three teams ranked in the BCS standings plus 4-3 Northwestern. Quarterback Ben Chappell has been solid and wideouts Tandon Doss and Damarlo Belcher are playmaking threats, but they will need help from a run game that has been extremely inconsistent. Indiana went to the pistol formation to spark its rushing attack, and the time has come for that to happen. Defensively, the Hoosiers need their seniors like end Jammie Kirlew and linebacker Matt Mayberry to continue to step up, though breakdowns remain a problem with the unit.
Best-case scenario: The Hoosiers beat Northwestern and Purdue and pull off an upset in one of their other three games to finish at 7-5. They reach the postseason for the second time in three years after a 14-year drought.
Worst-case scenario: Indiana falls apart and drops its remaining five games. Injuries crop up at key spots and the defense can no longer overcome its shortcomings by forcing turnovers.
Prediction: No bowl.
Posted by ESPN.com's Adam Rittenberg
Illinois Fighting Illini
Record: 1-5
Remaining schedule: at Purdue, vs. Michigan, at Minnesota, vs. Northwestern, open, at Cincinnati, vs. Fresno State
The final six games are absolutely critical for head coach Ron Zook and the future of a program that appeared to be turning a corner in 2007. Illinois must find ways to spark an offense that has scored just one first-half touchdown against an FBS opponent and ranks 112th nationally in scoring (16.5 ppg). Zook needs to settle on a quarterback and hope Arrelious Benn and the wide receivers start to be difference-makers. The defense ranks last in the league against the pass and must start changing games by forcing turnovers. As Purdue showed last Saturday against Ohio State, defense is the best way to turn things around. Confidence is clearly an issue right now, and Illinois can't afford many more losses before things completely unravel.
Best-case scenario: The Illini start playing to their potential and put up points in bunches. Clay Nurse and Tavon Wilson spark the defense. Illinois somehow wins five of its final six to finish .500 and squeaks into a bowl game. Zook gets another chance to turn things around in 2010.
Worst-case scenario: Illinois drops its remaining games and finishes last in the Big Ten for the fifth time in seven years. The offense never gets on track as quarterback Juice Williams and Eddie McGee continue to struggle. The locker room splinters and Zook is fired before Thanksgiving.
Prediction: No bowl. Illinois doesn't go 1-11, but the season is a lost cause.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Record: 1-5
Remaining schedule: at Purdue, vs. Michigan, at Minnesota, vs. Northwestern, open, at Cincinnati, vs. Fresno State
The final six games are absolutely critical for head coach Ron Zook and the future of a program that appeared to be turning a corner in 2007. Illinois must find ways to spark an offense that has scored just one first-half touchdown against an FBS opponent and ranks 112th nationally in scoring (16.5 ppg). Zook needs to settle on a quarterback and hope Arrelious Benn and the wide receivers start to be difference-makers. The defense ranks last in the league against the pass and must start changing games by forcing turnovers. As Purdue showed last Saturday against Ohio State, defense is the best way to turn things around. Confidence is clearly an issue right now, and Illinois can't afford many more losses before things completely unravel.
Best-case scenario: The Illini start playing to their potential and put up points in bunches. Clay Nurse and Tavon Wilson spark the defense. Illinois somehow wins five of its final six to finish .500 and squeaks into a bowl game. Zook gets another chance to turn things around in 2010.
Worst-case scenario: Illinois drops its remaining games and finishes last in the Big Ten for the fifth time in seven years. The offense never gets on track as quarterback Juice Williams and Eddie McGee continue to struggle. The locker room splinters and Zook is fired before Thanksgiving.
Prediction: No bowl. Illinois doesn't go 1-11, but the season is a lost cause.
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ABOUT THIS BLOG
Adam Rittenberg
Rittenberg joined ESPN.com in 2008 after four years at the Arlington Heights (Ill.) Daily Herald, where he covered sports at Notre Dame, Northwestern, DePaul and several other colleges. He lives in Chicago.
Brian Bennett
Bennett joined ESPN.com in August 2008 after nine years at The Courier-Journal in Louisville, Ky., where he covered college sports and the University of Louisville beat. He lives in Louisville.
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