ESPN College Football

The season might be over, but the mail never stops.

Let's do this.

Mike from Phoenix writes: As a Badger fan I was waiting to see your final power rankings of the year because I had a feeling that you might make MSU number 1. I just don't get it. It's the same way the coaches poll has MSU and Michigan ahead of Wisconsin. That's a joke.Look at the teams everyone played in the bowl season. MSU barely beat Georgia who is not the 2nd best team in the SEC even though they went to the title game. They are the 4th best team in that league. Michigan looked bad, and played one of the easiest teams in BCS history. Wisconsin would have destroyed both Georgia and Va. Tech, but you are penalizing them for going blow for blow with the most talented offensive team in the country. They were a fumble away from possibly winning.

Adam Rittenberg: Brian and I had a spirited debate about Wisconsin vs. Michigan State for No. 1. You can make good cases for both teams, but you can't base it solely on the bowl competition. Would Wisconsin have rolled Georgia? Maybe, maybe not. Georgia has a much better defense than Oregon and would have moved the ball against a Wisconsin defense that wasn't nearly as good as its stats indicated. Wisconsin also was extremely fortunate to beat Michigan State in the Big Ten title game, which the Spartans dominated for stretches. The two teams are evenly matched, as their two games this season showed. And I believe Michigan State ended the season playing better football than Wisconsin. I also tend to value teams with good to great defenses above those that rely on their offense. Michigan State is certainly superior to Wisconsin on defense.

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Tim from Iowa writes: While it might get you some back lash, I'd like your opinion on this.....me and several friends have the opinion that if 2 B10 teams(esp in our champ game) played like LSU-Bama, the B10 would once again be ripped for 3 yards/cloud of dust 1950's football. I watched parts ofthe game last night, then the final 8min. what I saw was one great def, 2 bad quaterbacks, a very repeative ineffective O from LSU, and Iowa/B10 style ball control from Bama. then Saban being proclaimed the next "Bear".

Adam Rittenberg: Tim, you're right to a degree, although there was less SEC love about the national title game than there was about the 9-6 contest. The SEC in a sense has earned the right to have ugly games because teams from other leagues simply haven't stacked up against the SEC's best. The common belief is that while Oklahoma State would have scored against Alabama, the Tide still would have rolled the Cowboys by 20-30 points. But I agree the SEC is the only league that can "get away" with games like last night's. Most people would much rather see games like the Rose Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl. Alabama is a great football team with one of the best defenses I've ever seen. But LSU's offense would be mediocre to bad in most leagues, not just the SEC.

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Ryan from Pittsburgh writes: Adam,What are your thoughts on the new Penn State staff? I have to admit I'm somewhat surprised. For years I thought that PSU would turn the corner if they could only get a younger fresher staff in place to energize recruiting. This new staff that O'Brien has coming in is not young at all, so I doubt they're great recruiters. Plus any Auburn fan will tell you that Roof was fired. Mack Brown fired McWhorter last year. Am I overreacting?

Adam Rittenberg: You bring up a good point, Ryan. A lot of veteran assistants are joining Bill O'Brien in State College. Keeping Larry Johnson is huge and a somewhat obvious move. He's one of the Big Ten's top recruiters, and he'll maintain Penn State's presence in the Maryland/DC area. His age isn't a factor in that regard. Ted Roof is the hire that has some Penn State fans upset. I agree he doesn't have the best track record, but the overall defensive staff with both Johnson and Ron Vanderlinden still looks solid to me. Charles London is a younger guy (mid-30s), but he's definitely the junior member right now. It'll be interesting to see who O'Brien hires to fill out the staff. Some more youth would be nice.

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Jeff from Omaha, writes: Adam? Why am I so awesome?

Adam Rittenberg: Ask myself the same thing every morning.

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Sam from Kalamazoo, Mich., writes: Adam, can you please explain your rationale for naming MSU as an early favorite to win the B1G in 2012 over, say, Michigan? The Wolverines return two 1,000 yard rushers in Denard and Fitz Toussaint, 3 starting receivers, and a top-5 recruiting class loaded with 4 and 5 star DLs, LBs, and OLs. Molk, Van Bergen, and Martin will be sorely missed, but I'm not sure it makes sense that MSU is so ramped for success after losing 6 All-Big Ten players and playing in the Big House. Can you even name next year's replacement for mighty Kirk Cousins off the top of your head?

Adam Rittenberg: Sure, Sam. Andrew Maxwell. Michigan State has been grooming him the past two seasons. Will he be as good as Cousins? That's a tall order, but he's not coming out of nowhere. Michigan State is my pick because of its defense. While Jerel Worthy is a big loss, the Spartans return a ton of elite athletes in all three levels, players like Will Gholston, Denicos Allen, Johnny Adams and Darqueze Dennard. The Spartans have more difference-makers on defense than Michigan will in 2011, at least in my view. I also believe MSU will be a more effective running team than it was this season because of an experienced line and a strong lead back in Le'Veon Bell. I certainly could see Michigan winning the division, but the Wolverines have a much tougher schedule in 2012 and could have a better team with a worse record (much like MSU this season versus 2010).

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Ben from Fargo, N.D., writes: One of the big stories in 2012 will be a surprising improvement in Minnesota's defensive line play. Ask Jerry Kill about Thieren Cockran. He's coach Kill's secret weapon.

Adam Rittenberg: Will do, Ben. Thanks for the note. Minnesota's defensive line play has struggled since Willie VanDeSteeg departed following the 2008 season. Gophers have ranked and 78th, 120th and 86th nationally in sacks in the past three seasons. It's an area of focus throughout the offseason as Minnesota loses linebacker Gary Tinsley and standout safety Kim Royston. Cockran, a redshirt freshman defensive end from Florida, is among those who needs to step up in 2012.

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Matt from Burbank, Calif., writes: Hi Adam,Regarding Northwestern next year, do you think Kain Colter gets the starting QB job? I've been of the opinion that he is more dangerous in a utility role as he was used these season, but on the other hand he's proven he can win and be effective as the top guy. Additionally, do you think there's any hope for this defense?Thanks for a great season, can't wait till next year! Bowl win or bust!

Adam Rittenberg: Matt, I think Colter will be the starter for 2012, but he has to make some important strides as a passer during the offseason. Northwestern's offense is predicated on short passing and accuracy. The Wildcats convert a lot of third downs, and Colter has to be able to make the throws Dan Persa, Mike Kafka and C.J. Bacher have made in recent years. He's the best athlete Northwestern ever has had at quarterback, and he's a perfect fit for the spread -- as long as he gets better as a passer. If there's little to no progress, Northwestern will have to use another quarterback, likely Trevor Siemian, to spark the passing game. Offensive coordinator Mick McCall has developed quarterbacks well at Northwestern, and Colter is his next big project.

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Kevin from New Orleans writes: It's been a tough couple weeks to be a Badger. Lost the Rose Bowl, lost 3 straight in hoops, lost 5 coaches. First let me say, if Bielama has Barry's confidence and support, then he has mine. Have you heard anything? Are the Badgers getting some really good coaches? I doubt we'll get anybody that can match the talent we are losing, but maybe we get an upgrade on the recruiting. 4 of the 5 coaches that left were not good recruiters. I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Adam Rittenberg: Kevin, while it's tough right now, I think Wisconsin fans should have faith in Bret Bielema to make some good hires. As you note, Joe Rudolph is the only major loss from a recruiting standpoint. Bielema has made good choices in the past, such as defensive coordinator Dave Doeren (now head coach at Northern Illinois), Dave Huxtable (did a great job with UW linebackers in only year) and Chris Ash (has upgraded secondary, now defensive coordinator). It'll be interesting to see where he turns to replace Paul Chryst and Bob Bostad, but a lot of good coaches will want to come to Madison after seeing what Wisconsin has done the past few years. So I would look at Bielema's hiring track record and feel confident.

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Lance from Arlington writes: "While Penn State has produced some solid college quarterbacks -- most recently Daryll Clark, the 2009 Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year"While your opinion is correct in general, saying Daryll Clark was solid does him an injustice. DC (along with Drew Brees) was the best QB the Big Ten has had since Kerry Collins and Michael Robinson is right there. Simply put, Penn State has produced three of the top five QB's to have competed in the Big Ten since their arrival. You will no doubt disagree since you hate Penn State but you are wrong.

Adam Rittenberg: Lance, I don't hate Penn State. I hate every school according to you folks. Let's get that cleared up. I was a big Daryll Clark fan during his career, but your argument doesn't hold up. Troy Smith won a Heisman Trophy in 2006. He played between Brees and Clark. Iowa's Brad Banks won the Davey O'Brien award in 2002. He played between Brees and Clark. While Clark led the Big Ten in pass efficiency in conference games in 2009 (136.6), it's the lowest rating for a Big Ten leader since at least 1980. His season rating that year (142.6) didn't lead the league (Terrelle Pryor did) and ranks behind all of the league leaders since 1980. Again, not hating on Daryll, who has a really nice career in State College, as did Michael Robinson. But there have been better Big Ten quarterbacks since Kerry Collins, including Wisconsin's Russell Wilson this year.

Hope everyone has a wonderful weekend.

Let's get to those questions:

Luke from Omaha, Neb., writes: Adam,Love the blog, I read it daily. I read Heather Dinich's article on the overall bowl record by conference. The B1G unfortunately only has a .482 winning percentage (122-131-3). Which is good for 6th. My question for you is what is each B1G team's bowl record and how well have they done in the last 10 years? Thanks!

Adam Rittenberg: Luke, here are the bowl breakdowns for each Big Ten team, both overall and since 2001.

• Illinois: 7-9 overall, 1-2 since 2001
• Indiana: 3-6 overall, 0-1 since 2001
• Iowa: 14-10-1 overall, 6-3 since 2001
• Michigan: 19-21 overall, 2-6 since 2001
• Michigan State: 7-14 overall, 1-5 since 2001
• Minnesota: 5-9 overall, 3-4 since 2001
• Nebraska: 24-23 overall, 4-4 since 2001
• Northwestern: 1-8 overall, 0-5 since 2001
• Ohio State: 19-22 overall, 4-3 since 2001 (excludes vacated 2011 Sugar Bowl)
• Penn State: 27-14-2 overall, 5-3 since 2001
• Purdue: 8-7 overall, 2-4 since 2001
• Wisconsin: 11-11 overall, 4-5 since 2001

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John from Chicago writes: Your response to OSU getting a waiver from the NCAA: "People are upset because Ohio State seems to be benefiting from making the coaching change when it did, and Meyer certainly is no ordinary recruiter. But Ohio State isn't the only program looking to capitalize on the situation."My question: do you really think OSU should be able to "capitalize on the situation" when they are in the situation because of NCAA rules violations, and are still under review for more penalties and sanctions? The only correct response from the NCAA was to deny the waiver request by saying "sorry, but we will not make an exception to this rule for a university that is in a coaching change situation due to rules violations and is currently under review for potentially more violations". If the NCAA grants every waiver request, then change the rule. But if a rule is in place, they should not waive it for a university that is not in good standing.

Adam Rittenberg: John, you bring up some good points. The NCAA's view, however, is that if a team hasn't violated rules relating to countable coaches used for recruiting, the waiver will be granted. As I wrote Thursday, the NCAA has granted the waiver to teams on probation or dealing with pending infractions cases related to other issues. The NCAA views the issues as separate. Ohio State's admitted violations, while serious, don't relate to this area. Should the NCAA look at the bigger picture in deciding whether to grant these waivers? There's a strong case that it should and not provide a program that has admitted to rule violations this temporary exception. But that's not the way the system is currently set up.

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Matt from Philadelphia writes: What do you think the future holds for Penn State? Do you expect a huge slump over the next couple years like in the early 2000's? Worse, Not as bad? Will we be seeing a lot of transfers after the season? How much will their recruiting be effected? Obviously things will continue to get worse for a while, but how bad will it be for Penn State?

Adam Rittenberg: Matt, a lot depends on which coach is hired and what penalties could be coming down from the Big Ten and/or the NCAA. Penn State's short-term recruiting will take a hit, and Nittany Lions fans should really temper their expectations for the 2012 class, even if a coach is named soon. Transfers are almost inevitable with a coaching change, so I would expect some, particularly if Penn State hires a coach from outside the current staff. The hardest part for Penn State are all of the unknowns. Penn State has tremendous tradition, top-notch facilities and terrific fan support. For these reasons, it's hard to imagine the program to struggle for any extended period. But this case is unprecedented and there's no telling what will come down after all the investigations are complete. My sense is it will be bad for a little, but not for an extended period.

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Keith from San Diego writes: Braxton VS TreIf Tre started as many games as Braxton did, would Tre be the top Big Ten QB of 2011? Taking off my Crimson goggles, they are both talented players. Braxton looks very mature for his age and obviously plays for a more high profile team (which could mean more pressure on a kid). But, after watching not only the IU vs OSU game, but it seems like at times Tre outplayed Braxton. I'm afraid Tre will always be in Braxtons shadows, regardless if he plays better than Braxton or not

Adam Rittenberg: While Braxton Miller certainly is a higher-profile player than Tre Roberson, they had comparable seasons this year. Roberson had several really nice performances for Indiana, including one against Ohio State in Columbus. Miller made fewer mistakes than Roberson and showed a bit more explosive play-making ability against better competition, but the two really weren't far apart this season. It will be interesting to watch both young QBs develop in systems where their skills should really thrive.

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Zach from Granville, Ohio, writes: Hey Adam,Just wondering what do you think Northwestern will do with Kain Colter next year? I already see that they have converted Evan Watkins to Superback, and with the addition of Sieman, and Oliver as better "Throwers" than Colter. Do you see him going back to QB, or more of a triple threat as a RB/WR/QB? 100 yards: passing, receiving and rushing now that would be a game...I know this is way too far ahead just wanted to get your take.

Adam Rittenberg: It will be interesting, Zach. A lot depends on how much Colter develops as a passer during the offseason. He can have the strongest impact on games at the quarterback position, but he has to complete passes at a high rate like Dan Persa, Mike Kafka and other Northwestern quarterbacks. Northwestern's offense requires the quarterback to be accurate on short to mid-range throws and convert third downs at a high rate. If Colter can't do this consistently, he'd be best used in a slash role. A lot also depends on Trevor Siemian and Zack Oliver and how they progress during the offseason. Colter is the best athlete on the team, without a doubt, but his future depends on how much he can handle at the quarterback position.

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Greg from Lincoln, Neb., writes: Hey Adam,Love the blog. Since the hire of Bo Pelini, it seems that Nebraska has had more players in trouble with the law than ever before. What do you make of this? Is it simply the change of our culture? Maybe Bo needs to grow up and set a better example for his players? As a die-hard Husker fan, it's disappointing to see things like the Eric Martin and Mike Caputo incidents. Feels like we're straying from our honest, hard-working selves that Nebraska is known for. Your thoughts?

Adam Rittenberg: Greg, I'm not as familiar as you are with the number of player-conduct incidents at Nebraska before the Huskers joined the Big Ten. This year had been relatively quiet until the past weekend, when Nebraska had the incidents involving both Caputo and Martin. You have every right as a Husker fan to be disappointed by what happened. These incidents also are fairly common for football players, so perhaps it is a sign of the times. Pelini is the leader of the program and bears some responsibility, but I don't know if it's fair to say he needs to "grow up." Kirk Ferentz has had conduct issues at Iowa. Same with Mark Dantonio at Michigan State and former Penn State coach Joe Paterno. I don't think those coaches were necessarily setting bad examples for the players, who made some poor choices. I'm not excusing it and neither should Pelini, but I think these incidents are fairly reflective of the college football culture.

In 2001, the Big Ten presented its MVP award to a quarterback whose unique skill set made him somewhat of an athletic wonder at the time.

He had become the first player in FBS (then Division I-A) history to record 40 passing touchdowns and 40 rushing touchdowns in his career. He had recorded the top three single-season rushing performances by a quarterback in Big Ten history. He had recorded three of the top four single-game quarterback rushing performances in league history.

He had set the Big Ten career quarterback rushing record with 3,895 yards, eclipsing the previous mark, set by Michigan's Rich Leach, by 1,719 yards.

The Big Ten hadn't seen anyone quite like Indiana's Antwaan Randle El.

But if Randle El played today, he'd have plenty of company.

A year after Michigan's Denard Robinson set several NCAA records, including single-season rushing yards by a quarterback (1,702), the Big Ten is a league filled with quarterbacks who can scoot.

Three weeks into the 2011 season, here's how the Big Ten's rushing chart looks.

1. Taylor Martinez, QB, Nebraska: 384 yards (128 ypg)
2. Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan: 352 yards (117.3 ypg)*
3. MarQueis Gray, QB, Minnesota: 328 yards (109.3 ypg)
4. Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin: 272 yards (90.7 ypg)
*-includes stats from opener against Western Michigan

The league's top three rushers are quarterbacks, and all of them rank among the nation's top 25 rushers. In fact, the nation's top three quarterback rushers all come from the Big Ten.

While the season remains very young and the rushing chart likely will change in the coming weeks, the Big Ten has become a haven for dual-threat quarterbacks.

Six of the league's top single-game quarterback rushing performances have taken place in the past four seasons (four by Robinson, one by former Northwestern quarterback Mike Kafka and one by former Indiana quarterback Kellen Lewis). Robinson set the Big Ten single-season quarterback rushing record in 2010, and Illinois' Nathan Scheelhaase finished fifth -- behind Randle El's three seasons -- with 868 yards.

Gray set a Minnesota single-game quarterback rushing record last Saturday by racking up 171 yards in a win against Miami (Ohio). The junior is the first Gophers quarterback to record consecutive 100-yard rushing performances since Billy Cockerham in 1999.

"We're seeing it week in and week out," Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said. "This is our fourth straight week of playing quarterbacks that have a lot of designed runs. That just seems to be the direction college football is going in right now."

Although the Big Ten has never seen rushing numbers quite like these from its quarterbacks, the league has gone through similar waves.

"Back when I played, it was more option-based," said Nebraska coach Bo Pelini, who played safety at Ohio State from 1987-90. "Now it's a little bit more the spread, zone-read, zone-option type thing. Everybody's a little bit different, but either way, that quarterback can put some pressure on you pretty quick."

Minnesota coach Jerry Kill made it clear he hopes the Big Ten rushing chart looks dramatically different in a few weeks.

His worry is valid. The more quarterbacks carry the football, the more hits they absorb and the greater their injury risk will be.

Martinez wasn't the same player -- nor Nebraska the same team -- after getting banged up midway through last season. Robinson missed time in most of Michigan's games last season after being shaken up.

"You'd rather have your tailback [leading the league in rushing]," Kill said. "... We all worry when a quarterback's running that much [about] the health of that quarterback when it comes to Game 9, 10, 11 and 12. It's a concern."

Like all quarterbacks, Northwestern's Kain Colter must master clock management.

But not only the clock on the scoreboard. The one in his head, too.

Colter has racked up yards (180 rush, 301 pass) and touchdowns (4 rushing) in his first two career starts. He also has racked up hits, a few too many for anyone's liking, especially with top quarterback Dan Persa still not medically cleared to play.

There's no doubt Colter is a special player with the ball in his hands. While Northwestern looks for its first bell-cow running back since Tyrell Sutton, the team's best option appears to be the guy taking the snaps.

"Dynamic," offensive coordinator Mick McCall said of Colter. "That's the one word that describes him best. He's a handful to defend. He's done a very, very good job and we're really pleased."

McCall's challenge is to develop Colter into a complete quarterback, one who knows when to take off and when to stand his ground in the pocket and wait for pass plays to develop. Although Northwestern boasts one of the Big Ten's deepest groups of receivers, the team ranks near the bottom of the league in pass attempts (40).

The good news is McCall has been down this road before. Mike Kafka was a run-first quarterback who led the Big Ten with 3,430 pass yards in 2009. Persa began his career as a run-first quarterback before completing a league-record 73.5 percent of his pass attempts for 2,581 yards and 15 touchdowns last season.

"You look early in Dan’s career, early in Mike's career, all them have the ability to make plays with their feet," McCall said. "They go, '1-2, I got to get out of here.'"

McCall is trying to get Colter to wait a little longer.

"There's times he's pulled it down where he didn't have to," McCall said. "Last week he checked the ball down a lot better. ... As time goes on, he'll get better at checking the ball down, getting that progression to the third or fourth [receiver] and he won't have to use his feet so much."

Colter went through some sliding drills this week in practice, and McCall is telling the sophomore when he should run out of bounds rather than absorb another hit.

"I've got to teach him to manage himself a little bit better," McCall said. "He wants to go make every play like every young guy does."

Another item on McCall's agenda is what to do at quarterback when Persa is medically cleared to play. Persa, who has had increased participation in practice, said this week he should be back by the Big Ten opener Oct. 1, at the latest. McCall said there's still a chance the senior plays Saturday at Army.

Although McCall isn't too wrapped up in how he'll use Persa and Colter, he admits the coaches will "get our creative juices going" soon.

"Until I get told that he's a full-go, that's what I'm waiting on," McCall said. "We'll see when that comes and we'll get him going again. I know he's been itching to play and he's working his fanny off. It's been a tough ordeal. It's hard coming back because you're so close but you've got to get over this hurdle. ... There's always going to be times where you get setbacks in your rehab; it doesn't matter what the injury is.

"But he's still way ahead of the game compared to the normal timeline."

While Persa tries to accelerate his return, Colter's best approach could be to slow things down just a bit.

Northwestern offensive coordinator Mick McCall is one of the nation's more underrated quarterback coaches.

Since he arrived before the 2008 season, he has helped C.J. Bacher, Mike Kafka and Dan Persa become some of the Big Ten's best signal-callers.

McCall faces yet another challenge today as sophomore Kain Colter will make his first start at quarterback in the season opener at Boston College. Persa, still hampered by a surgically repaired Achilles tendon, isn't dressed for the game and won't play.

It's certainly tough news for Northwestern and its All-Big Ten quarterback, although not surprising after the preseason. Colter took the majority of reps with the first-team offense in camp and showed improvement as a passer. Persa looked fine with his passing but struggled to move around. His legs helped him immensely in 2010, and Northwestern needs its quarterbacks to be running threats.

Still, it's a little surprising that Persa hasn't even dressed for the game. You have to wonder why Northwestern launched a Heisman Trophy campaign for the senior when his playing status was in doubt. I wouldn't expect to see Persa until a Week 3 matchup against Army, at the earliest.

Colter faces a good Boston College defense and must show he's more than a good athlete. He must connect on Northwestern's high-percentage passes, use a very good group of receivers and tight ends and limit major mistakes. It'll be a tough task.

The Wildcats need to rally around Colter and show that they can win without Persa. Northwestern fell apart on both sides of the ball last season after Persa ruptured his Achilles tendon in a Nov. 13 win against Iowa.

Will Kain be able? We'll find out very soon.

EVANSTON, Ill. -- During Northwestern's team meeting Sunday, coach Pat Fitzgerald tried to loosen up his new starting quarterback.

"I said, 'Remember when I recruited you and I told you that you were going to start your first college game at Wrigley against the Illini?' " Fitzgerald said. "And he kind of chuckled. I said, 'Just like we scripted, right?' "

Not quite.

The script certainly has changed for Northwestern after it lost star quarterback Dan Persa to a season-ending ruptured Achilles' tendon. Persa, who suffered the injury while throwing the game-winning touchdown pass Saturday against Iowa, underwent successful surgery Saturday night and is expected to make a full recovery by the spring or shortly thereafter.

The loss of Persa thrusts Watkins, a redshirt freshman, into the spotlight. And what a bright spotlight it will be.

Northwestern and Illinois play the first football game at Wrigley Field since 1970 and the first college football game at the Friendly Confines since 1938. Northwestern and Illinois haven't played at Clark & Addison since 1923, a 29-0 Illinois win. ESPN "College GameDay" also will be on site.

Add in the fact that Watkins grew up in Chicago's west suburbs.

"Growing up in the Chicagoland area, playing in Wrigley against an in-state rival, it's a perfect opportunity," Watkins said. "I'm really excited."

It's an opportunity Watkins would have gladly passed up if Persa could have avoided what Fitzgerald called "a freak injury." Watkins talked to Persa the night of Persa's surgery and visited with Persa on Monday at the football offices.

Watkins has tried to absorb as much as he can from the junior quarterback, who will be involved in practice this week and on game day. But Watkins now will lead the offense, beginning in a film-review session tonight.

"He's staying very positive," Watkins said of Persa. "He's been there for me and supporting me. Anything he needs to do to help me be prepared, he will this week, so it's been helpful. ... I just told him how sorry I was for him that it had to end like that. I've got his back, and I'm going to do everything I can for him to lead this team to victories."

Northwestern is no stranger to in-season quarterback changes.

Persa relieved Mike Kafka last year for stretches of two games after Kafka hurt his hamstring. The year before, Kafka relieved C.J. Bacher for two games after Bacher injured his hamstring. Watkins stepped in for Persa three weeks ago at Indiana after Persa suffered a concussion late in the game. On his first play, Watkins fired a 13-yard pass on third-and-8 to set up a field goal.

"He's an extremely talented quarterback," Fitzgerald said. "He's a dual-threat guy with his size at 6-6 and close to 250 pounds. A kid that can run. He's got a great arm, he's got a great understanding of our offense.

"Evan will be ready."

Watkins has appeared in four games this fall, completing 3 of 7 passes with no touchdowns or interceptions. He has only two rushing attempts, a total that will increase Saturday.

Although Watkins admits he's "not Persa-fast" -- Persa leads the team with 519 rush yards and nine touchdowns -- and likely will sit in the pocket more, he's not a plodder, either.

"He moves better than people give him credit for," offensive coordinator Mick McCall said. "He's going to run around and make some things happen."

Watkins' biggest challenge will be handling the emotions of his first start, especially in such a unique setting. He showed some savvy Monday when asked if he's a Cubs or White Sox fan.

"I'm a Chicago fan," he said.

Likely translation: He's a White Sox fan.

How will Watkins balance his emotions Saturday?

"I'm going to be excited," he said, "but you've got to stay focused and prevent any distractions. Just keep your mind on winning."

Some trends in the Big Ten seem to defy explanation, and Iowa finds itself on opposite sides of two of them.

The Hawkeyes have won eight of their last nine meetings against Penn State, including each of the past three contests. Iowa derailed Penn State's national title hopes in 2008, reshuffled the Big Ten race with a win in Happy Valley last fall and held Penn State without a touchdown in a dominating win Oct. 2.

Joe Paterno has lost more games to Iowa (11) than any other team in his head-coaching career except for Ohio State (13).

But it has been a very different story for Iowa against Northwestern. The Wildcats have won four of the teams' past five meetings, including three at Kinnick Stadium, where Iowa is 49-10 since 2002. Northwestern ended Iowa's perfect season in 2009 with a 17-10 come-from-behind win at Kinnick. Kirk Ferentz is just 4-5 against Northwestern as Iowa's coach.

"I really couldn't tell you why we've had so much success against Penn State and not so much against Northwestern," Iowa senior guard Julian Vandervelde said this week. "I really do think it comes down to the little details, the mistakes, the fundamentals and the basics. Year in and year out, we're able to execute against Penn State and not so much against Northwestern."

Iowa needs a polished performance Saturday as it visits Northwestern. The 13th-ranked Hawkeyes remain very much in the Big Ten title race, but they can't afford to slip up, especially as next week's home showdown against No. 9 Ohio State looms.

By most accounts, Saturday's game is one Iowa should win. The Hawkeyes are more experienced on both sides of the ball. Iowa's biggest strengths (the play-action pass and a pressuring defensive line) match up well against two of Northwestern's weaknesses (the secondary and the offensive line). Iowa has more at stake and should have no trouble getting motivated after the struggles.

But the Hawkeyes know what should happen and what does happen are two different things, especially in this series.

Many have tried to explain Northwestern's recent success, even pointing to the Hayden Fry-Gary Barnett exchange after the 1994 Iowa beatdown of Northwestern as the start of a shift (Northwestern is 8-5 against Iowa since 1995).

Iowa has dealt with key injuries in the last two losses -- running back Shonn Greene in 2008 and quarterback Ricky Stanzi in 2009 -- but Northwestern also played most of last year's game without star quarterback Mike Kafka. Northwestern running back Adonis Smith was quoted this week as saying coach Pat Fitzgerald "hates Iowa," but does that matter on the field?

The real explanation, according to Ferentz, is pretty simple.

"They have done a good job of playing the way you're supposed to play and we haven't," he said. "I think we have had nine turnovers and they have had two in two years. ... On top of that, we screwed up on special teams, several times, a couple years ago. To me, that's been the story of it. You've got two even teams. One team played clean, played really well and the other team didn't and it's pretty academic who is going to win or lose."

Iowa has looked uncharacteristically sloppy against NU, but Vandervelde says there's no mental block against playing the Wildcats.

"People don't expect them, for some reason, to come out and swing as much as they do and hit as hard as they do," he said. "Sometimes it catches people by surprise, I think. They're smart guys, they're going to watch tape and figure out what you do, so you really can't make mistakes. You have to be ready for everything they're going to bring.

"Having played them for a couple of years now, I'm well versed in their style of play and I won't be surprised by anything, hopefully."

» Power Rankings: ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | Pac-10 | SEC | Non-AQ

The Big Ten title race didn’t change much Saturday, but there’s always some shuffling in the power rankings. Both Michigan schools make a positive move, while the Illinois schools backslide after tough road losses.

Penn State is back among the league's top half after three consecutive wins. It'll be interesting to see how the Nittany Lions fare against improved competition down the stretch.

Remember, the power rankings reflect how a team is playing right now and will change week to week.

1. Wisconsin (8-1, 4-1 Big Ten): I really believe that when healthy, Wisconsin is the Big Ten's best team. The Badgers have had to fight through injuries in their past two games, not to mention bye week hangover in a sluggish first half at Purdue. But reserves like running back Montee Ball are stepping up, and Wisconsin’s defense made a ton of plays to lead a second-half surge.

2. Michigan State (9-1, 5-1): The Spartans took care of business against last-place Minnesota and revived their rushing attack behind dynamic sophomore Edwin Baker. Linebacker Greg Jones and the defense also regained its swagger. The team's offense in the second half was less than stellar, but it didn't need to be. Michigan State now gets a well-earned open week.

3. Ohio State (8-1, 4-1): Holding steady at No. 3 for now, Ohio State has a chance to move up as it enters its signature month under head coach Jim Tressel. The Buckeyes' Big Ten dominance can be directly traced to their November dominance. Star linebacker Ross Homan (foot) could return this week as Ohio State hosts surging Penn State before its signature showdown Nov. 20 at Iowa.

4. Iowa (7-2, 4-1): Iowa drops in the rankings after its lackluster performance at Indiana. The Hawkeyes couldn’t finish drives for most of the game and were extremely fortunate to escape with a win after Indiana's Damarlo Belcher dropped the ball in the end zone with less than a minute remaining. I liked what I saw from Ricky Stanzi in crunch time, but Iowa really dodged a bullet Saturday.

5. Penn State (6-3, 3-2): I really like what I've seen from Penn State since the bye week, especially on offense. Running back Evan Royster is rolling, and quarterback Matt McGloin has provided a jolt to a lifeless unit. A banged-up defense also showed some teeth Saturday by shutting out Northwestern in the second half. Penn State’s competition goes up quite a few notches this week in Columbus.

6. Michigan (6-3, 2-3): A great offense can carry a team at times, and Michigan's offense has helped the Wolverines become bowl eligible for the first time in coach Rich Rodriguez's tenure. The Michigan-Illinois game might have defied Big Ten tradition, but it was damn fun to watch. Everyone knows the Wolverines are an incomplete team, but their offense should strike fear in every opponent the rest of the season.

7. Illinois (5-4, 3-3): What happened to the Illinois defense? A unit that had held teams like Ohio State and Michigan State in check was no match for Michigan, which piled up 67 points, 676 offensive yards and 33 first downs. I wouldn’t like to be in the film room with coordinator Vic Koenning right now. The good news is Illinois continues to see growth from quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase.

8. Northwestern (6-3, 2-3): The Wildcats haven't put together a complete game against an FBS opponent, a troubling trend that continued Saturday in Happy Valley. Northwestern has showed it can play with more talented teams like Michigan State and Penn State, but the Wildcats are struggling to finish, especially on defense. Quarterback Dan Persa has filled the void left by Mike Kafka, but Northwestern is really missing the defensive backs it lost to graduation.

9. Indiana (4-5, 0-5): It’s the same old story for coach Bill Lynch and the Hoosiers, who did several good things Saturday but couldn’t emerge with a Big Ten victory. Indiana's defense has played noticeably better since the Ohio State loss, but the offense still isn’t putting the ball in the end zone enough. You have to feel for Belcher, an outstanding receiver who makes that catch nine out of 10 times. Things don't get easier this week with a trip to Wisconsin.

10. Purdue (4-5, 2-3): Purdue controlled the pace in the first half, forcing mistakes from Wisconsin and making several nice plays of its own. But quarterback Sean Robinson's youth caught up to the Boilers after halftime, as Purdue lost the momentum and never regained it. Turnovers kill you against good teams, and the injury-plagued Boilers have had too many miscues since the Minnesota win.

11. Minnesota (1-9, 0-6): The Gophers had to know what was coming in East Lansing, and yet they still had no answer for Baker, who racked up 179 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Minnesota's offensive inconsistency continued as it couldn't finish drives. At least only two more games remain in this death march, and Minnesota’s best chance for a win comes this week at Illinois.

Dan Persa's 86.4 percent completion ratio so far this season doesn't surprise Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald.

Fitzgerald sees this all the time from the Wildcats' junior quarterback.

Asked Tuesday if Persa passes the ball as accurately in practice as he does in games, Fitzgerald flipped through his notes from the team's workout earlier that morning.

"We just got off the field and he threw for 92 percent in seven-on-seven," Fitzgerald said. "And in team [drills], he threw for 88 percent.

"So yeah, he's pretty consistent."

Persa opened the season by completing 19 of 21 passes for 222 yards and three touchdowns in a road win against Vanderbilt. He set a single-game team record for completion percentage (90.5 percent, minimum 20 attempts) and added 82 rush yards.

Last Saturday, Persa took a huge step back. He only completed 82.6 percent of his throws (19-for-23) in about a half of work against Illinois State.

On-target passing combined with five touchdown strikes and no interceptions has helped Persa lead the nation in pass efficiency with a rating of 212.1.

"It's just all about your confidence," Persa told me earlier this week. "Once it becomes second nature, you don't really think about making mistakes. You just think about getting the ball to [the receivers] as quick as you can and watch what they do with it."

Persa is only two games into his stint as Northwestern's full-time starter and entered the year with only 34 career pass attempts (20 completions). His fast start is linked to his ability to maximize the offseason, whether it was earning team awards for his weight-room prowess, working with former Northwestern quarterback Brett Basanez on his skills or leading voluntary workouts with his receivers.

Northwestern's spread offense is built around high-percentage passes, some of which coordinator Mick McCall considers the equivalent to run plays. Most of Persa's throws don't travel very far, but the execution needs to be there on both ends.

"Some are short, easy passes," Persa said, "but at the same time, we work really hard in the offseason and in fall camp to get our timing right. It's really showing right now."

Northwestern enjoyed similar accuracy with All-Big Ten quarterback Mike Kafka in 2009.

Kafka led Big Ten starters in completion percentage (64.8). He completed his first 16 passes against Syracuse, breaking a 47-year-old team record, and finished the game 35-for-42 (83.3 percent).

Persa has continued the pattern.

"I just try to make all the throws that I'm capable of," he said. "You're going to have some incompletions, just because sometimes you've got to throw the ball away or sometimes, you have to save yourself. I'm not really focused on making or missing passes as much as executing and getting the job done."

Fitzgerald said there's only one throw Persa would like to have back so far this season, a pass that sailed through the hands of a Vanderbilt linebacker and into those of Northwestern receiver Demetrius Fields.

So even when Persa messes up, he still completes the pass. Figures.

"He's managed it outstanding," Fitzgerald said. "I don't know if he could have done a better job in the first two games. ... He's a great fit to our offense. He can do everything: He can run, he can throw the quick game, he can throw on the move, he can throw the ball vertically.

"He's just the full package."

The Big Ten's best looked good against mostly weak competition in Week 1, so no changes up top. Michigan's impressive win comes with a reward, and there's a little shuffling at the bottom.

Let's get started ...

1. Ohio State (1-0): The Big Ten's most complete team delivered a complete performance in dismantling Marshall 45-7 on Thursday night. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor looked more comfortable as he led a surprisingly dynamic offense that got a lot of its weapons involved. The defense continued its opportunistic ways. Aside from a few special-teams miscues, not much to complain about.

2. Iowa (1-0): After living on the edge throughout the 2009 season, the Hawkeyes dominated Eastern Illinois to open a year filled with high expectations. Aside from a leg injury to quarterback Ricky Stanzi that looked scarier than it actually was, Iowa fans could breathe easy Saturday. Stanzi and running back Adam Robinson both stood out, and the defense allowed only one significant drive. Things get tougher the next two weeks with Iowa State and Arizona.

3. Wisconsin (1-0): The Badgers made a few big mistakes early against UNLV, but they pulled away in the second half behind their three-headed running back monster of John Clay, Montee Ball and dynamic freshman James White. Defensive end J.J. Watt made a game-changing forced fumble early in the third quarter, and Wisconsin's power game took over from there. A good performance overall on the road, although the Badgers need to clean up a few things.

4. Penn State (1-0): Joe Paterno has found his quarterback, and (gasp!), he's a true freshman. Rob Bolden answered the call in his first career start, showing good poise in the final three quarters against Youngstown State. Receivers Brett Brackett and Derek Moye stepped up, and Chaz Powell returned a kickoff 100 yards to the end zone. Penn State's offensive line still needs to pick up its play after Evan Royster recorded only 40 rush yards against Youngstown.

5. Michigan State (1-0): After leaning on Kirk Cousins and the pass game too often last season, Michigan State re-established the run in a big way Saturday. Playing without projected starter Larry Caper (hand), the Spartans received big performances from freshman Le'Veon Bell (141 rush yards, 2 TDs) and sophomore Edwin Baker (117 rush yards 2 TDs). Linebacker Greg Jones had a forced fumble and nearly secured his first career interception.

6. Michigan (1-0): Thanks to Denard Robinson and an improved offensive line, Michigan recorded the most impressive victory of Week 1, considering the competition. Robinson has to be careful with all the hits he takes, but if he continues to complement his ridiculous speed with an accurate arm, the Wolverines will win a lot of games this fall. Michigan's defense still concerns me a bit, although I liked the aggressiveness from Craig Roh.

7. Northwestern (1-0): The Wildcats never trailed against Vanderbilt but seemed fortunate to escape Nashville with a victory. New starting quarterback Dan Persa carried the offense, much like predecessor Mike Kafka did in 2009, and showed incredible accuracy (19-for-21 passing, 222 yards, 3 TDs). The run game once again was absent, a concern for Pat Fitzgerald going forward, and Northwestern endured several special-teams miscues.

T-8. Minnesota (1-0): For the first time in a while, you can say Minnesota has an offensive identity. The Gophers held the ball for 45:34 in their come-from-behind win against Middle Tennessee, as Duane Bennett (187 rush yards) led the power rushing attack. Fullback Jon Hoese (3 rush TDs) provided the best story of Week 1, and a new-look defense did enough to hold off a Dwight Dasher-less Blue Raiders team. The Gophers really needed this one.

T-8. Purdue (0-1): A young Purdue team played predictably inconsistent football at Notre Dame. New quarterback Robert Marve looked good at times but made too many mistakes. The secondary did a decent job against Irish star receiver Michael Floyd, but Purdue allowed scores on four consecutive possessions midway through the game. Still, the Boilers had a chance at the end, and they'll get better in the coming weeks.

10. Indiana (1-0): Look out for the Hoosiers' offense this season. IU didn't miss a beat without All-Big Ten wide receiver Tandon Doss, as quarterback Ben Chappell found a rhythm against Towson and Darius Willis (102 rush yards, 2 TDs) led the ground game. The outlook on defense remains much cloudier after the Hoosiers allowed 392 yards to Towson. If the defense doesn't get better by Big Ten play, Indiana will have a tough time winning games.

11. Illinois (0-1): For a moment, it looked like Illinois would stun Missouri and finally win a game at the Edward Jones Dome. But the second half showed that the team remains a work in progress on both sides of the ball. There were some encouraging signs, particularly running back Mikel Leshoure and defenders Corey Liuget and Ian Thomas, but Illinois needs to put a complete game together. This week's home matchup against Southern Illinois will be huge.

As you might have noticed, we're all about quarterbacks today at ESPN.com, and it's time to rank the Big Ten signal callers.

This hasn't been a Big Ten strength in recent years, but things could change this fall. Quarterbacks like Ohio State's Terrelle Pryor, Iowa's Ricky Stanzi and Wisconsin's Scott Tolzien all have proven they can win at a high level, and Ben Chappell (Indiana) and Kirk Cousins (Michigan State) put up some strong numbers last fall.

The criteria are the same I used for the top 25 preseason rankings: past performance and 2010 potential. You can gripe all you want about the top four choices, but you shouldn't be surprised because all four quarterbacks were ranked in the exact same order in June/July. The Big Ten blogger is not a hypocrite. One final note: These are individual player rankings, but I consolidated the quarterback candidates at Michigan and Penn State to make it easier.

I fully expect this list to be different in early January, but here goes:

1. Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State: How can I rank Pryor at No. 1 based on one great performance? For starters, it took place in a huge game, the Rose Bowl, against a top 10 opponent in Oregon. Plus, I think Pryor will go forward rather than backward and become a more complete quarterback this fall. He has more natural ability than anyone else on this list, and while he'll never be a model passer, he only needs to improve a little to become a lot more dangerous.

2. Ricky Stanzi, Iowa: It's very close between Stanzi and Tolzien, but Stanzi's 18-4 mark as Iowa's starting quarterback sets him apart. Yes, you can point to the mistakes, and there were a lot of them, but no quarterback in the country made more big plays in the fourth quarter than No. 12. I expect a smarter and more efficient Stanzi in 2010. Plus, he's a damn fine American.

3. Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin: Simply stated, he's the perfect quarterback for Wisconsin. Tolzien is smart, extremely efficient and totally aware of his role in the offense. He executes the play-action well and can thread the needle when he needs to. Tolzien still needs to prove himself against the Big Ten's best defenses, but I expect a very strong senior season from him.

4. Kirk Cousins, Michigan State: Take away a few late-game mistakes and a poor second half against Penn State, and Cousins turned in a very strong season as a first-year starter. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is strong (19-9), and he'll only get better with more experience. Plus, he has an excellent group of receivers and tight ends at his disposal this fall.

5. Ben Chappell, Indiana: Chappell is the Big Ten's leading returning passer (2,941 yards in 2009), and he ranks second in completion percentage (62.6) among returning starters. He needs to cut down on his interceptions and make better throws in the red zone, but all that should come this fall. Chappell has some great receivers to work with, namely Tandon Doss, but would really benefit from a consistent run game.

6. Adam Weber, Minnesota: Some Gophers fans have given up on Weber after a poor junior season, but I still have faith in No. 8, who happens to be a record holder at the U. It hasn't been easy with three offensive coordinators in as many seasons, and the system last year would have been tough for any quarterback to run. Weber still has a ton of talent, but he needs to regain the confidence we saw for most of 2008, when he earned second-team All-Big Ten honors. He also needs to prove himself without star receiver Eric Decker.

7. Robert Marve, Purdue: Marve clearly doesn't grade high in past performance after struggling at Miami in 2008, but his potential this fall is very high. He'll benefit from working in Purdue's spread offense, and he'll have no shortage of targets in Keith Smith, Justin Siller, Cortez Smith and others. The ability always has been there with Marve, and we'll start to see results this fall.

8. Tate Forcier/Denard Robinson, Michigan: No starter has been named, and while head coach Rich Rodriguez has a bit of evidence from 2009, he'll be selecting a No. 1 quarterback based on who he believes has greater potential in 2010. Both players can run, although Robinson is more explosive on the move. Forcier was far and away the better passer in 2009, but he struggled to make plays when he wasn't freelancing. Robinson should be a better passer this fall.

9. Dan Persa, Northwestern: This isn't a knock against Persa, who has done everything right to prepare himself for this moment. I just need to see more from him in game situations, especially if Northwestern relies on him as much as it did Mike Kafka in 2009. Persa very well could be the most ideal fit for Northwestern's spread offense since Zak Kustok.

10. Kevin Newsome/Matt McGloin/Paul Jones/Robert Bolden, Penn State: The competition remains wide open, and the group has virtually no game experience aside from Newsome. Talent shouldn't be a problem, as Newsome, Jones and Bolden all were highly-touted recruits, while McGloin, a former walk-on, has made significant strides in State College. Who can handle the pressure of quarterbacking in the Big Ten? We'll find out soon.

11. Nathan Scheelhaase, Illinois: Again, not a knock against Scheelhaase, but his past performance is confined to practices and scrimmages. He's one of the most mature redshirt freshmen I've covered, but he's obviously got to prove himself in the game spotlight. Offensive coordinator Paul Petrino sees shades of Stefan LeFors in Scheelhaase. If that's the case, he'll soar up this list.

Schedule: Pat Fitzgerald and the Wildcats hold their first practice at 5 p.m. ET today in Evanston. The team moves training camp to Kenosha, Wis., from Aug. 15-22, and holds a scrimmage there Aug. 21.

What's new: Fitzgerald made no staff changes, but Northwestern has another new starting quarterback, as Dan Persa takes over for All-Big Ten standout Mike Kafka. The Wildcats also have a new-look secondary after losing three starters, including star cornerback Sherrick McManis. Defensive line coach Marty Long is on the field after missing the Outback Bowl because of an illness.

Sidelined: All five players who missed spring practice, including superback Drake Dunsmore and guards Doug Bartels and Keenan Grant, are expected to be ready for camp. Star linebacker Quentin Davie missed most of the spring with a foot injury, but is 100 percent for practice.

Key battle: Northwestern needs a starting running back after its ground game was grounded in 2009, and the competition resumes today. Sophomore Arby Fields is the frontrunner to win the job, but he'll continue to be pushed by Stephen Simmons, Scott Concannon and others. Northwestern is pretty set at two secondary spots with safety Brian Peters and cornerback Jordan Mabin, but the other two positions need to be settled in camp.

New on the scene: The Wildcats lose two starting receivers and might look to freshmen Rashad Lawrence, Tony Jones and Jimmy Hall to step up. Adonis Smith could be a factor at running back if Fields can't lock down the top job. Several freshmen should see time right away on special teams, including return specialist Venric Mark.

Time to step up: All five starters return along the offensive line, and Northwestern should have its most depth in recent memory after some strong recruiting. There's simply no excuse for the team to struggle in the run game any longer. Northwestern annually produced 1,000-yard rushers under the late Randy Walker, who went out of his way to challenge the offensive line and its coach in practice. Fitzgerald needs to demand the same accountability from a group that should not only protect Persa, but create rushing lanes.

Quotable: "We have 17 wins over the last few years. And that foundation of success, I think, has provided us with motivation to take the next step. And what is that next step? First and foremost, it's going to be to go to a bowl game for three straight years, something that never happened in our program before. It all happens because we believe we've got great players." -- head coach Pat Fitzgerald

Ninth in a series examining key players departing, staying and arriving at Big Ten schools in 2010.

Going ...

Mike Kafka, QB: No quarterback in the Big Ten did more for his team than Kafka, who guided Northwestern to eight victories despite getting next to no help from the running game. A second-team All-Big Ten selection, Kafka led the league in passing (263.8 ypg), total offense (286.8 ypg) and completion percentage (64.8).

Sherrick McManis: CB: McManis was as valuable to the Wildcats' defense as Kafka was to the offense. When he stayed healthy and made big plays, Northwestern came away with wins. McManis earned first-team All-Big Ten honors from the media and led the league in both interceptions per game (.5) and passes defended per game (1.2).

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Staying ...

Quentin Davie, LB: Davie boasts a ton of starting experience and playmaking ability, and will lead a Wildcats defense that loses several key parts from 2009. The senior has recorded 147 tackles, 21 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks in the past two seasons, starting 24 of 26 games in that span. He has filled out nicely into his 6-foot-4 frame and will contend for all-conference honors this fall.

Drake Dunsmore, TE: The superback position hasn't been too super at Northwestern, but Dunsmore likely will change that this fall. He's the leading returning pass-catcher among Big Ten tight ends after recording 47 receptions in 2009. Dunsmore, who could be the team's top passing target this fall, comes off of a nine-catch, 120-yard performance in the Outback Bowl that included a spectacular 66-yard touchdown run.

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Coming ...

Chance Carter, DE: Northwestern's defensive line loses mainstay Corey Wootton, and Carter might work his way into the rotation early in his career. He has the size and skills to be a hybrid type player for the Wildcats, who could use some versatility in their front seven.

Venric Mark, WR/KR/PR: The return game is an area where freshmen can make an immediate impact, and Mark has built his reputation on special teams. Northwestern has been rather pedestrian in its return game for quite some time, and Mark boasts the speed and quickness to provide a major boost this season. Special teams has cost Northwestern too many games over the years, and Mark could be a difference maker in a positive way.

More revolving door ...

• Indiana
• Michigan State
• Wisconsin
• Penn State
• Purdue
• Ohio State
• Minnesota
• Illinois

The 2010-11 Big Ten bowl lineup is now set, with the Insight Bowl moving up in the pecking order and three new games -- Gator, Texas, Dallas Football Classic -- coming aboard. A ton of things can happen between now and Sept. 2, but there's no harm in taking a look at which teams likely will be packing their bags in late December or early January, and which teams will be staying home.

The Big Ten's first BCS entry will go to the Rose Bowl unless it qualifies for the national championship. Because of a new rule taking effect in 2010, if the Big Ten loses its champion to the national title game, it likely would lose a spot in the Rose Bowl to a non-BCS team if that team earns a BCS berth. If both the Big Ten and Pac-10 lose teams to the national title game, the Big Ten could still get a second squad to Pasadena.

Here's one last look at the Big Ten's bowl selection order:

Selection No. 1 (champion): Rose Bowl/BCS vs. Pac-10/BCS, Jan. 1, ESPN
Selection No. 2: Capital One Bowl vs. SEC, Jan. 1, ESPN
Selection No. 3: Outback Bowl vs. SEC, Jan. 1, ABC
Selection No. 4: Gator Bowl vs. SEC, Jan. 1, ESPN2
Selection No. 5: Insight Bowl vs. Big 12, Dec. 28, ESPN
Selection No. 6: Texas Bowl vs. Big 12, Dec. 29, ESPN
Selection No. 7: Dallas Football Classic vs. Conference USA or Big 12, Jan. 1, ESPNU
Selection No. 8: Little Caesars Pizza Bowl vs. MAC, Dec. 26, ESPN

With potentially nine postseason spots available, Big Ten teams that win at least six games are virtually assured of a bowl berth.

And here's how I see things shaking out ...

BOWL LOCKS

• Ohio State: After winning or sharing five consecutive Big Ten championships, the Buckeyes should eclipse the six-win bowl minimum by mid-October.
• Iowa: The team with the Big Ten's second-best bowl winning percentage (.542) will aim for its third consecutive bowl championship after winning in the Outback and the Orange the past two seasons.
• Wisconsin: The Badgers' soft schedule would net them six or seven wins in a down season. This year's team, with the most starters returning in the league, should have no trouble winning eight or more.
• Penn State: There should be some growing pains early on with a young quarterback, but Penn State boasts enough talent on both sides of the ball and a sparkling track record on defense to qualify for its sixth consecutive bowl appearance and its 37th under Joe Paterno.
• Michigan State: I'm taking a bit of heat for my Spartans love right now, but if Michigan State can't win at least six games with this schedule, some significant changes may be in order.

ON THE FENCE

• Northwestern: The Wildcats have been bowl eligible in each of the past three seasons and six of the past seven years. If they can win at least three nonconference games, they should reach the six-win minimum, but they lose some substantial pieces, including All-Big Ten quarterback Mike Kafka.
• Purdue: If the Boilers can build on last year's 4-4 mark in Big Ten play, they'll be going somewhere warm in December or January. Last year's 1-3 nonconference performance was a killer, but Purdue seems like a good bet to end its two-year bowl drought.
• Michigan: A third consecutive bowl-less season likely will signal the end for Rich Rodriguez in Ann Arbor, but the embattled coach has enough firepower on offense to reach the six-win plateau. There are a bunch of questions on defense, so this could go either way, but Michigan simply can't afford another winter at home.

BOWLING UPHILL

• Minnesota: The schedule is the biggest thing working against the Gophers, who for years scheduled their way to six or seven wins. Minnesota must get through nonconference play with no more than one loss, as the home schedule looks very tough with USC, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa. Those teams went a combined 50-15 last season.
• Indiana: Offensive firepower isn't the problem for Indiana, which boasts one of the Big Ten's top passing attacks. But the Hoosiers are fighting their history on defense and in struggling to get to bowl games. They've been to the postseason just once since 1993. Can they get over the hump this fall?
• Illinois: Illinois' postseason fate could be decided in the first six games, as it faces Missouri, Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State, not to mention a solid team in Northern Illinois and a strong FCS program in Southern Illinois. The Illini must survive that stretch and make major strides on both sides of the ball. Won't be easy.

2009 overall record: 8-5

2009 conference record: 5-3 (T-4th)

Returning starters

Offense: 8, defense: 5, kicker/punter: 1 (Stefan Demos handled both duties in 2009)

Top returners

TE Drake Dunsmore, LT Al Netter, C Ben Burkett, LB Quentin Davie, LB Nate Williams, DT Corbin Bryant, DE Vince Browne, S Brian Peters, K/P Stefan Demos

Key losses

QB Mike Kafka, WR Zeke Markshausen, WR Andrew Brewer, DE Corey Wootton, CB Sherrick McManis, S Brad Phillips, DT Adam Hahn

2009 statistical leaders (*-returners)

Rushing: Arby Fields* (302 yards)

Passing: Mike Kafka (3,430 yards)

Receiving: Andrew Brewer (925 yards)

Tackles: Quentin Davie* (90)

Sacks: Quentin Davie* and Vince Browne* (5)

Interceptions: Sherrick McManis (5)

Spring answers

1. Persa ready to lead at QB: There's no quarterback controversy in Evanston as junior Dan Persa has established himself as the undisputed leader of the offense despite his limited game experience. Persa still must prove himself this fall, but he has done all the right things to prepare to succeed All-Big Ten selection Mike Kafka.

2. Ebert back to top form: Jeremy Ebert never fully recovered from hip surgery last season, but the junior looked like a No. 1 wide receiver this spring. Ebert should fit into the Eric Peterman-Zeke Markshausen mold as a reliable possession receiver, though he can also stretch the field at times. He finished spring ball with a solid performance (4 receptions, 49 yards) in the spring game.

3. Depth at linebacker and defensive tackle: Coaches often stress the importance of up-the-middle defense, and Northwestern looks strong at two of the three spots. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald says the team's linebacker depth is the best it has been in recent memory, as Quetin Davie leads a strong group. Niko Mafuli turned in a strong spring at defensive tackle and should form a solid rotation with projected starters Corbin Bryant and Jack DiNardo. The safety spot is the only remaining question mark.

Fall questions

1. Running back: Northwestern can't expect to run the ball as poorly as it did last fall and win eight or more games again in 2010. Persa is still inexperienced and will need some help from the running backs. Arby Fields comes out of the spring as the No. 1 back, even though he didn't participate in any scrimmages because of his baseball responsibilities. The Wildcats need Fields or another candidate to create some clear separation in preseason camp.

2. Safety depth: The team loses two multiyear starters at safety in Brad Phillips and Brendan Smith, putting the position very much in the spotlight. Northwestern feels good about playmaking junior Brian Peters, who essentially served as a third starter in 2008 and 2009. But other than Peters, there are question marks. Jared Carpenter emerged from spring ball as the No. 2 starter, but converted linebacker David Arnold and Hunter Bates will compete for playing time.

3. Special teams: The kicking game must remain a top priority for Northwestern, which has lost or nearly lost quite a few games because of special teams. Stefan Demos is an All-Big Ten kicker, but he would really benefit if Brandon Williams could step up and become the starting punter. Northwestern also must improve its return and coverage teams. Stephen Simmons should help on kickoff returns if he can stay healthy.