Insider: C's slow start no detriment
Before the season, [Basketball Prospectus] took SCHOENE's baseline projections and ran 10,000 simulations of the season to establish the probabilities for each team's outlook. After last night's games, we ran the simulations again, only we plugged in the actual results of the 75 games played this season. The probabilities aren't that much different. On average, Boston won 35.8 games in our preseason simulations. The revised average is 35.7 and the Celtics' probabilities for a championship have dropped from 0.8 percent to 0.7. Dallas started off at 36.8 and now its win projection is at 35.3, but because of changes elsewhere in the West, the Mavericks' title chances have actually risen from 2.2 percent to 2.3. (Dallas' title odds are better despite the lower win forecast because Boston has to contend with Miami and Chicago in the East.)
By the end of the season, it's likely the standings will look much more like we expected than they do today. Even though it seems like an awful lot of NBA basketball has been played since Christmas, it's only been 75 games. Even in the shortened season, that accounts for just 7.6 percent of the schedule. If you, like us, had more or less buried the title chances of the Celtics and Mavericks before the season, then by all means continue to do so. However, if you have a rooting interest in one of those teams and are clinging to the belief that there is another championship run in the offing, nothing that has happened should dissuade you from doing so.
Hop HERE to read the full story.
Play Podcast ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter weighs in on the Panthers' WR situation, Julian Edelman's future with the Patriots, Vince Wilfork's decision to ask for his release and more.
Play Podcast "Spanning the Globe" features ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss, Yahoo! Sports' Eric Edholm and ESPN LA 710's Mark Willard.
Play Podcast Red Sox manager John Farrell talks about whether he expected his team to make such a turnaround in one season, his relationship with his players, fans' expectations for the squad and more.