Friday, October 18, 2013
Bracketology: South Playoff Picture, Week 7
By Chris Bradley
ESPNBoston.com presents the latest in our weekly Bracketology series, where we map out what the MIAA playoff picture would look like if playoffs started tomorrow. A reminder before reading: the Bracketology segment DOES NOT include teams who are currently in the playoff chase, as the top EIGHT teams in North/South will qualify for the playoffs.
For a reminder about point-system calculations, here is how the totals are added up for teams in North/South:
12 Points for a win over a team in a higher division
10 Points for a win over a team in the same division, or a win over a team from outside the North or South (including out-of-state opponents*)
8 Points for a win over a team in a lower division
3 Points for every win an opponent that you have beaten has
1 Point for every win an opponent that you lost to has
After adding up your team’s point total, divide the total number by the number of games your team has played.
Keep in mind before reading below that an automatic seed was not selected from the Big Three or the Catholic Conference (see clarification), and that Stoughton and Foxboro’s tiebreaker for the second seed in the Hockomock Davenport can’t be decided without a one-on-one matchup.
Remember that automatic seeds will get priority when the MIAA seeds the top eight teams in region, in this projection we simply put a star (*) next to the automatic qualifiers within the top eight of each region. Next week, given that many tiebreakers will be figured out with games played this weekend, we will have the full playoff projection.
For a view of the MIAA league tiebreakers that came out yesterday, CLICK HERE.
All comments, clarifications, and corrections can be sent to Chris Bradley at Christian.Bradley@gordon.edu, or on Twitter: @_ChrisBradley
For a refresher on how the playoff system will work, check out our three-part "Taking the Field" series from the preseason HERE.
Division 1 South 1. Xaverian (4-1), 15.4 points
2. Bridgewater-Raynham (4-1), 15.2 points*
3. Attleboro (4-1), 13.2 points
T-4. BC High (3-2), 9.2 points
T-4. Weymouth (3-2), 9.2 points*
6. Brockton (2-3), 8.6 points
7. Newton North (2-3), 8 points
8. Franklin (2-3), 7.4 points
Analysis: When looking at this projection, it’s important to remember that we did not pick automatic qualifiers in the Catholic Conference because the league has its own rating system by which automatic qualifiers are picked—therefore Xaverian doesn’t have a star on their name for this week. Outside of that, the only difference in Division 1 South this week is that Weymouth is now in the standings at the four seed, replacing Catholic Memorial—who has dropped out of the top eight. Keep in mind that because none of the teams in the Big Three have played each other yet, an automatic qualifier was not picked—Brockton playing New Bedford this Friday will help with that going forward.
Analysis: Mansfield and King Philip will meet on Friday night, potentially shaking up the standings at the top of Division 2 South, so stay tuned on that. Keep in mind that with this projection Barnstable would drop down to seventh because they do not have an automatic seed at this point in time. With six automatic qualifiers in this particular region, there will be two at-large bids up for grabs—which would go to Barnstable and Braintree right now.
Analysis: Plymouth South was able to help themselves out in the standings last week with a win over Nauset, who with the loss dropped to fifth overall in the top eight. Silver Lake holds the second automatic seed in Patriot League-Keenan, while Somerset-Berkeley is in first place in the EAC.
Analysis: Oliver Ames get an automatic seed because they are the top team in the Hockomock Davenport, but at this time the other automatic seed from that league will have to go undetermined until October 25th—Stoughton and Foxboro are tied for the second seed, and the only way to solve said tiebreaker in this case is a head to head matchup between the two teams (see MIAA tiebreakers link at the top of the page).
Analysis: Division 4 South is full of automatic seeds, making it even more important for Dennis-Yarmouth and Medway to win out in order to secure an at-large bid. That certainly won’t be easy for Medway, as they travel to Westwood on Friday. Dennis-Yarmouth will host 1-4 Falmouth.
Analysis: Right now East Bridgewater is on the outside looking in, as they are behind Rockland and Abington in the South Shore Large—winning out against Norwell and Abington would obviously be ideal here. With two league games left, Spellman is in a similar boat given the fact that they control their own destiny from here on out—expect their October 26th showdown with Austin Prep to be a heated one.
Division 6 South 1. Millis-Hopedale (4-1), 17 points*
2. Diman (4-1), 15.8 points
3. Cohasset (4-1), 15 points*
4. Blue Hills (4-1), 13.6 points*
5. Bristol-Plymouth (4-1), 12.8 points*
6. Pope John Paul (4-2), 12.33 points
7. Southeastern (3-2), 10.2 points
T-8. Mashpee (3-2), 10 points*
T-8. West Bridgewater (3-2), 10 points*
Analysis: Calculating the automatic seeds in the Mayflower is a bit complicated to say the least, but according to our calculations, Blue Hills and Bristol-Plymouth would get the automatic seeds in the Large, West Bridgewater and Upper Cape (currently hold an automatic seed, but not listed in the top eight) have the automatic bids in the Small.