ESPN Boston's picks: Pats vs. Falcons

September, 27, 2013
Sep 27
9:45
AM ET
Here's how ESPNBoston.com's experts see Sunday night's Patriots-Falcons game (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC) playing out. What's your prediction? Leave your pick in the comments section.

Witness Carlos Ortiz revises story

September, 27, 2013
Sep 27
9:31
AM ET
AP Photo/The Sun Chronicle, Mark Stockwell, PoolCarlos Ortiz had repeatedly said Aaron Hernandez and Ernest Wallace both got out of the car with Odin Lloyd before Ortiz heard shots ring out. He now says only Hernandez and Lloyd got out.

FALL RIVER, Mass. -- Prosecutors in the case against former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez have revealed that a key witness changed his story about the night Odin Lloyd was fatally shot.

Carlos Ortiz had repeatedly said Hernandez and Ernest Wallace, another defendant who is alleged to be the "right-hand man" of Hernandez, both got out of the car they were in with Lloyd before Ortiz heard shots ring out. Ortiz now says only Hernandez and Lloyd got out of the car.

Bristol County District Attorney Sam Sutter said Friday that Ortiz has been indicted by a grand jury for a single count of accessory to murder after the fact, a charge Wallace faces as well.

"The grand jury indictment means the criminal case against Mr. Ortiz will now start anew and move forward in Fall River Superior Court," Sutter said in a news release.

Ortiz had earlier pleaded not guilty to a gun charge. 

The information about Ortiz's recanting was made public in a hearing Thursday in which a judge ruled Wallace should continue to be jailed on $500,000 bail. According to media reports, prosecutors after the hearing would not say why they had mentioned Ortiz had changed his story but that they didn't believe it made their case against Wallace weaker.

Wallace's attorney had sought $10,000 bail.

Wallace pleaded not guilty last week to the accessory charge.

Lloyd was found shot to death June 17 in an industrial park in North Attleborough, Mass., near Hernandez's home.

Hernandez has pleaded not guilty to first-degree murder.

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.


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National pundits lean toward Falcons

September, 27, 2013
Sep 27
9:15
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Patriots fans aren't used to this: In the "NFL Live" video above, all three analysts -- Mark Schlereth, Herm Edwards and Brian Dawkins -- pick the Falcons to beat the Patriots on Sunday night. Watch the video above for their explanations.

Moreover, 11 of the 13 ESPN pundits polled here are predicting Falcons victories as well. Ron Jaworski and Mike Ditka are the only two who pick the Patriots to win.

Positional groupings: Pats favor 3rd WR

September, 27, 2013
Sep 27
9:00
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One of the things that will be charted on a weekly basis is the positional groupings utilized by the New England Patriots' offense, as they reveal player value and take us deeper into the X's and O's of how coordinator Josh McDaniels is attempting to attack the opposition.

Here is the big takeaway through three games: The usage of multiple-tight-end packages is down considerably compared to the past two seasons. Here is a simplified breakdown of the team's 232 offensive snaps (including penalties, not kneel-downs):

3 or more WRs: 142 of 232
2 backs: 61 of 232
2 or more TEs: 51 of 232

There is a 22-play overlap, which accounts for snaps in which there was a combination of 3 WRs/2 backs and 2-3 TEs/2 backs.

Four-year veteran Michael Hoomanawanui is playing most of the tight-end snaps.

When the Patriots added a second tight end last Sunday, it was either rookie Zach Sudfeld or veteran Matthew Mulligan. Sudfeld is more of a receiver-type, while Mulligan is more of a pure blocker. Because each of them trends clearly in one direction, it makes the Patriots a bit more predictable when they are in the game in multiple-tight-end packages.

So with a heavy focus on the passing game the first three weeks, it has essentially come down to a third receiver (most recently Aaron Dobson) being deemed more valuable than Sudfeld.

When Rob Gronkowski returns, it makes sense to think we could see an increase in multiple-tight-end groupings.

Highlighting Pats-Falcons connections

September, 27, 2013
Sep 27
5:00
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Each week, we’ll use this space to pass along players, coaches and executives from the Patriots’ upcoming opponent who have a tie to the team or other unique ties to the area and organization.

Below are current members of the Falcons organization with a New England tie:

Players
Cornerback Asante Samuel. Now on his third team, the veteran cornerback was a pivotal member of the Patriots secondary during their run to consecutive Super Bowl wins from 2003-2004. Known as one of the most reactive cornerbacks in the NFL during his career, Samuel still has a nose for the football, as he managed five picks for the Falcons last season.

Personnel staff
General manager Thomas Dimitroff. The shot-caller in Atlanta has made a rather seamless transition from his role as the Patriots director of college scouting into his new title in Atlanta, taking over in 2008 and helping to quickly turn one of the league’s struggling franchises into a consistent playoff contender. Dimitroff has done so through quality drafting, sensible free-agent signings and bold trades, led by the decision to package multiple picks to move up in the draft and select star wide receiver Julio Jones.

Director of player personnel Lionel Vital. 2013 marks Vital’s first season as the director of player personnel for Atlanta after previously working as the assistant director to David Caldwell, now the Jaguars GM. Vital was the assistant director of college scouting for the Patriots from 2001-2004 after working as a national scout in 2000. He entered the NFL ranks in 1991 with the Browns where he was hired by Bill Belichick to the personnel staff.

Other connections
Offensive line coach Pat Hill. Now in his second season in charge of the Falcons offensive line, Hill is a respected assistant around the league who also has a close relationship with Belichick. He served as the offensive line and tight ends coach for Belichick from 1992-1995 with the Browns and has maintained a strong relationship since that time. Two of Hill’s players from Fresno State, where he was the head coach from 1997-2011, are stalwarts along the Patriots offensive line: Logan Mankins and Ryan Wendell.

The new-look Patriots offense

September, 26, 2013
Sep 26
6:11
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We have been spoiled for years watching the creativity and versatility of the New England Patriots offense. Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels are the best in the business at adjusting their schemes to fit the personnel they have on hand, and they are probably in the early stages of their biggest challenge yet with Tom Brady trying to bring a passing game up to speed without his top five pass-catchers from a year ago.

Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson, both rookie WRs with good skill sets, are under tremendous pressure to get on the same page mentally with their QB. The first two weeks of the season were clearly frustrating for Brady, but in Week 3 we saw glimpses of things starting to come together and the young WRs actually looked as if they had a feel for what was expected.

Right now the one guy that Brady totally seems to trust is versatile WR Julian Edelman, but when Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola are back and healthy, and these young guys have a little more time to improve in the system, this passing game may be as productive as ever -- even if it looks different.


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Vollmer and playing-time incentives

September, 26, 2013
Sep 26
5:55
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It's too soon to know whether right tackle Sebastian Vollmer's will be available for Sunday night's game in Atlanta, but we know now that he's dealing with a foot injury that kept him off the practice field on Wednesday and Thursday.

Vollmer
The Patriots hope to return the massive tackle to the lineup as soon as possible, as he presents one of the best players on their offense and is a stabilizing force as both a run blocker and pass protector.

Thinking back to the four-year contract that Vollmer signed this offseason, a couple of details stand out as it relates to his injury and the potential impact it has on his playing-time status.

The first is a playing-time incentive to be paid out at the end of this league year: If Vollmer logs 90 percent of all the offensive snaps, he'll be paid $750,000.

He's also entitled to a roster bonus of $1 million (due on the third day of the 2014 league year) if he plays 80 percent of the snaps this season.

The Patriots likely included playing-time incentives in Vollmer's deal as a result of previous injury issues he's worked through (back and knee). These incentives are not uncommon around the league, as they provide a layer of protection for franchises in the event that a player suffers an injury or experiences a precipitous drop in performance.

The foot issue cost Vollmer exactly 50 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 3 (37 out of 74), meaning he has now played 193 of 230 possible offensive snaps this season, or 83.9 percent. That keeps him above the threshold to earn the 2014 roster bonus, but behind the pace needed to achieve the bonus to be paid out at the end of this year.

The Patriots need Vollmer back on the field for obvious reasons, and a quick recovery for Vollmer could pay off in a big way from a financial standpoint.

Practice report: Vollmer status in doubt

September, 26, 2013
Sep 26
4:06
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FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- Starting New England Patriots right tackle Sebastian Vollmer did not participate in practice for the second straight day, putting his status in doubt for Sunday night’s game against the Atlanta Falcons.

Vollmer has a sprained foot, according to the Boston Herald, which reported it wasn’t expected to keep Vollmer sidelined for an extended period of time. Third-year player Marcus Cannon would start in place of Vollmer.

One reason the right tackle position is critical is that one of the Falcons’ most disruptive defensive players is end Osi Umenyiora. Patriots coach Bill Belichick mentioned Wednesday that the Falcons flip Umenyiora to each side, so if Cannon is pressed into duty, there could be times he’s matched up against Umenyiora.

This would be Cannon’s second career regular-season start, although he has played extensively in a reserve/rotational role.

In addition, tight end Rob Gronkowski (forearm/back) and receiver Danny Amendola (groin) were both limited in practice for the second straight day.

Overall, here were no changes on the team’s injury report from Wednesday.

Pats' OL Cannon ready for anything

September, 26, 2013
Sep 26
2:04
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FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- Versatility is perhaps just as important as ability for the Patriots on the offensive line. The team has always sought out players that can handle multiple positions along the front.

Marcus Cannon, a third-year player, is a fitting example. He's been called upon to play four positions already (everything but center) after starring at TCU as a left tackle.

His approach now given the shuffling of positions is simple: "Whatever they ask me to do, that's what I'm doing," he said Thursday.

With right tackle Sebastian Vollmer missing his second straight day of practice (foot), it could be Cannon that is called upon to handle the spot Sunday night against the Atlanta Falcons.

Cannon, speaking with reporters following the team's practice, feels as though he's making strides as he settles into his role.

"Every day there's improvement," he said. "There's still a lot of improvement to go, just taking it every day step-by-step and work hard to improve more."

His play against the Buccaneers (37 snaps in relief of Vollmer) drew praise from his head coach.

"He came through for us yesterday," Bill Belichick said on Monday. "I thought overall our line blocked well and we were able to run the ball competitively against a good run defense. All those guys did a good job; he did a good job too."

Should Vollmer sit on Sunday night, Cannon will make just the second start of his career. He also started one game in place of Vollmer last season. Should Vollmer make a quick recovery, Cannon said he'll be ready to go in any spot that the team asks him to handle.

"[Offensive line] coach [Dante] Scarnecchia coaches us pretty well, the whole offensive line and if we need to get ready for something, he's going to get us ready for it," he said. "That's just the type of coach he is, we just do whatever he asks us."

Weekly Patriots chat recap

September, 26, 2013
Sep 26
2:00
PM ET
Every Thursday on ESPNBoston.com, there is a Patriots chat in the late morning/early afternoon. Today's chat kicked off at 12 p.m. ET, can be recapped here, and included some of the following topics:

1. Running back Stevan Ridley and his declining snaps.

2. Getting into some X's and O's on how the Patriots might match up with the Falcons' 3-receiver attack.

3. Considering some theories as to why the Patriots have stuck with LeGarrette Blount as the primary kickoff returner.

4. If Sebastian Vollmer doesn't play (and it looks that way), focusing on Marcus Cannon and others on the depth chart.

5. Cornerback Aqib Talib and the possibility he's next in line for an extension.

6. Defensive lineman Vince Wilfork's performance through three games this season.

Patriots-Falcons: 12 things to know

September, 26, 2013
Sep 26
1:30
PM ET
1. Sunday night, Bill Belichick will be looking for just his third 4-0 start in his 14 seasons with the Patriots. The previous two resulted in Super Bowl appearances: a 6-0 start in 2004 led to a win in Super Bowl XXXIX against the Eagles, and the 16-0 start in 2007 led to a loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII.

2. Tom Brady has thrown a touchdown pass in 51 consecutive games, which is the second-longest streak in NFL history -- 3 behind Drew Brees, who had 54 straight games from 2009 to 2012. Brees had his streak stopped in a Week 13 game on "Sunday Night Football" in the Georgia Dome against the Falcons. That’s the exact day, time, venue and opponent Brady will face this week.

3. Brady’s accuracy with the deep ball has been declining in recent years, which has limited the number of big plays the Patriots have been able to put on the board. His completion percentage on throws of 20 yards or more downfield was 35.6 in 2010, 28.3 in 2011, 32.9 in 2012 and 15.4 so far this season.

4. Atlanta’s Mike Smith enters this game with a 1-2 record this season and 83 games coached in his career. He has never been 2 games below .500, and according to the Elias Sports Bureau he is tied with John Harbaugh for the fifth-longest streak of games coached in his career before falling 2 games under .500. Mike Tomlin has the third-longest streak in history, but that was brought to an end in Week 2 this season. If Brady throws touchdown passes in each of his next two games, he’ll be able to tie Brees’ record on Oct. 13, when the Patriots face Brees and the Saints.

5. Only 24 percent of the Patriots' plays this season have utilized multiple tight ends despite never dipping below 52 percent in any of the previous three seasons. The Patriots have run more plays (25) without a tight end this season than in the previous three (8).

6. For a second straight season, Brady’s Total QBR has seen a significant decline from the previous season’s first 3 games.

7. The Patriots have lost 3 of their past 5 games versus NFC opponents dating to last season.

8. Brady hasn’t been as quick to release the ball this season, with 37 percent of his attempts coming three seconds or later after the snap (29 percent the previous two seasons). Brady has completed only 42.6 percent of his passes this season when holding onto the ball for at least three seconds.

9. Brady has slowly started to develop chemistry with his rookie wide receivers Kenbrell Thompkins, Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce. Brady was 10-of-18 targeting the three in Week 3 after going a combined 9-of-33 in Weeks 1 and 2.

10. Falcons receiver Julio Jones ranks first in the NFL in receiving yards (373) and yards after the catch (194), is tied for first (with Julian Edelman) in receptions with 27, and is sixth in targets (33). Jones leads all wide receivers with nine receptions at or behind the line of scrimmage this season. He finished last season with 17 such receptions, and didn’t get his ninth until Week 11.

11. Smith said to the media after the Week 3 loss to the Dolphins that the Falcons needed to improve on their efficiency in situational football. The defense ranks outside the top 20 in the types of categories he cited.

12. The Falcons, who lost to Miami last week to fall to 1-2, have not lost consecutive games since Weeks 13-14 of the 2009 season.

Falcons dangerous, yet vulnerable

September, 26, 2013
Sep 26
11:13
AM ET
video

Every week leading into the Patriots' next game, ESPN NFL analyst Tedy Bruschi and ESPNBoston.com Patriots reporter Mike Reiss break down the team's next game. This week, it's a Sunday road game against the Atlanta Falcons (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET).

Mike: Tedy, one of the things I'm most interested to see in this game is how the Patriots' young players respond to the prime-time stage. The Patriots have 13 rookies on their 53-man roster, several of whom are being counted on for big contributions.

Tedy: Early on in my career, I really looked forward to the prime-time games. But when you get older, Sunday at 1 is your favorite thing. That's the truth. I know a lot of these younger players will be excited about playing on the national stage, and I think it's good for them that they've had three games under their belt before this. The Falcons represent the best opponent they've faced to this point.

Mike: And Matt Ryan is easily the best quarterback they have faced. Where do you place him among those at the position?


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Vollmer, Slater out again

September, 26, 2013
Sep 26
10:40
AM ET
FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- For the second consecutive day, starting right tackle Sebastian Vollmer and special-teams captain Matthew Slater were the lone Patriots not spotted at practice.

On Wednesday's injury report, it was revealed that Vollmer is dealing with a foot issue that cost him half of the offensive snaps during a Week 3 win against Tampa Bay. Slater, meanwhile, remains out due to a wrist injury.

As has been the case, tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Danny Amendola were on the practice field again for a shells-and-helmets workout, as each is hopeful to return soon from their respective injuries. On Wednesdsay, Amendola stated that he was getting closer to 100 percent after a groin issue that has sidelined him each of the past two games.

Gronkowski (back/forearm) looks to be closing in on a return to action for the first time since a divisional-round win in last season's playoffs. He stressed on Wednesday that he continues to improve day-to-day.

The Patriots will conduct their final practice on Friday in advance of their trip to Atlanta for a Sunday night game.

Video: Reiss' P.A.T. -- Kickin' It

September, 26, 2013
Sep 26
9:00
AM ET
video

In this week's "Reiss' P.A.T.", Mike Reiss talks about the Patriots' preparations for the Falcons and chats with kicker Stephen Gostkowski.

Penalty watch: Patriots vs. Falcons

September, 26, 2013
Sep 26
5:00
AM ET
(Every Thursday leading off the day, we'll explore the New England Patriots' penalty breakdown in comparison with the team's opponent, while adding a few league-wide stats.)

Total penalties: 17
Total accepted penalties: 13 (only 5 teams have fewer)
Falcons' total accepted penalties: 16 (9 teams have fewer)
NFL team with fewest accepted penalties: Colts, with 7
NFL team with most accepted penalties: Jets, with 34
Most frequent Patriots penalty: False start (5)
Key stat: The Patriots' 9 penalties against the Buccaneers were a season high.
Most penalized Patriot: Tackle/guard Marcus Cannon; cornerback Alfonzo Dennard, defensive end Chandler Jones, left tackle Nate Solder, tied with 2

SUMMARY: Of the Patriots' 17 penalties, seven have come against offensive linemen. With the false start the team's most frequent penalty, it further highlights the challenge of playing in the noisy Georgia Dome. ... Walt Coleman is assigned to referee the game.

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