In the video above, Cary Chow goes inside the numbers to see how the Patriots-Ravens game (8:20 p.m., NBC) plays out in AccuScore game simulations.
Among the findings:
* The Ravens won 60 percent of more than 10,000 AccuScore simulations by an average score of 28-24.
* Tom Brady is projected for nearly 300 yards passing and two scores, but in simulations the Ravens win, he averages more than one interception.
* Joe Flacco is putting up big numbers in simulations, but the key is Ray Rice. When Rice has at least 70 rushing yards on more than 4.5 yards per carry, the Ravens are 76 percent favorites.
* But in simulations in which Stevan Ridley outrushes Rice, the Pats are 61 percent favorites.