In the video above, Prim Siripipat goes inside the numbers to see how the Patriots-Broncos game (4:25 p.m., CBS) plays out in AccuScore game simulations.
Among the findings:
* The Patriots won 70 percent of more than 10,000 AccuScore simulations by an average score of 32-24.
* Peyton Manning is averaging 1 interception per simulation, while Tom Brady is averaging half of that, .5 picks.
* In simulations in which Manning does not have any interceptions and Brady throws at least one, Denver is a 52 percent favorite.
* However, if Manning has 1 or more INTs, the Broncos have only a 23 percent chance of winning.
* The X-factor is the running game: In simulations, the Patriots have a plus-40-yard edge in that department over Denver in simulations.