Thursday, September 22, 2011
AccuScore report: Patriots vs. Bills
In the video above, Prim Siripipat goes inside the numbers to see how the Patriots-Bills game plays out in AccuScore game simulations.
Among the findings:
* Overall, the Patriots won 68 percent of more than 10,000 AccuScore simulations by an average score of about 31-25.
* Even when the Bills score 24 or more points, they only won 35 percent of those simulations.
* The Patriots are averaging 31 points per simulation, with Tom Brady having a remarkable 4-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
* Brady had 2 or more interceptions in just 17 percent of simulations; the Bills won 52 percent of those sims.
* Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is projected for 2 touchdown passes in the game; if he has 2+ touchdowns and no more than 1 interception, the Bills have a 48 percent chance of winning, according to sims. If he has 2+ TDs and no INTs, the Bills are 54 percent favorites.