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Thursday, September 22, 2011
AccuScore report: Patriots vs. Bills

By ESPNBoston.com



In the video above, Prim Siripipat goes inside the numbers to see how the Patriots-Bills game plays out in AccuScore game simulations.

Among the findings:

* Overall, the Patriots won 68 percent of more than 10,000 AccuScore simulations by an average score of about 31-25.

* Even when the Bills score 24 or more points, they only won 35 percent of those simulations.

* The Patriots are averaging 31 points per simulation, with Tom Brady having a remarkable 4-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

* Brady had 2 or more interceptions in just 17 percent of simulations; the Bills won 52 percent of those sims.

* Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is projected for 2 touchdown passes in the game; if he has 2+ touchdowns and no more than 1 interception, the Bills have a 48 percent chance of winning, according to sims. If he has 2+ TDs and no INTs, the Bills are 54 percent favorites.

* Click here to simulate the game yourself, choosing your own scenarios, individual performances, weather and more.