Friday, February 3, 2012
AccuScore report for Patriots-Giants
In the video above, Prim Siripipat goes inside the numbers to see how the Patriots-Giants Super Bowl XLVI matchup plays out in AccuScore game simulations.
Among the findings:
* The Patriots won 61 percent of more than 10,000 AccuScore simulations by an average score of 31-29.
* If the Giants are able to hold Tom Brady to the same production he had in Super Bowl XLII -- less than 275 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 INTs -- they have a 69 percent chance of winning, according to simulations.
* If Rob Gronkowski doesn't play or plays but is completely ineffective, the Patriots' chances of winning drops to 51 percent, according to sims.
* Eli Manning projects to throw for more than 300 yards and 2-plus touchdowns. But, according to simulations, there's a 75 percent chance of throwing at least one interception. If he does, the Giants' chances of winning the game drop to 33 percent.
* If the Patriots average 4.5 yards per carry, they have a 75 percent chance of winning, according to simulations.
* The Giants project to rush for 86 yards. If they manage to rush for more than 100 yards, their chances of winning according to sims jump to 60 percent.