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Friday, October 5, 2012
Video: AccuScore report for Pats-Broncos

By ESPNBoston.com



In the video above, Prim Siripipat goes inside the numbers to see how the Patriots-Broncos game (4:25 p.m., CBS) plays out in AccuScore game simulations.

Among the findings:

* The Patriots won 70 percent of more than 10,000 AccuScore simulations by an average score of 32-24.

* Peyton Manning is averaging 1 interception per simulation, while Tom Brady is averaging half of that, .5 picks.

* In simulations in which Manning does not have any interceptions and Brady throws at least one, Denver is a 52 percent favorite.

* However, if Manning has 1 or more INTs, the Broncos have only a 23 percent chance of winning.

* The X-factor is the running game: In simulations, the Patriots have a plus-40-yard edge in that department over Denver in simulations.