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Friday, October 19, 2012
Video: AccuScore report for Patriots-Jets

By ESPNBoston.com



In the video above, Prim Siripipat goes inside the numbers to see how Sunday's Patriots-Jets game (4:25 p.m., CBS) plays out in AccuScore game simulations.

Among the findings:

* The Patriots won 79 percent of more than 10,000 AccuScore simulations by an average score of 29-17.

* Simulations have the Patriots putting up big rushing numbers against a Jets defense that ranks 28th against the run. But if the Jets can hold the Pats to less than 120 yards rushing and sack Tom Brady at least three times, they become 56 percent favorites, according to simulations.

* Protecting Brady and getting the running game going seem to be the keys to victory for the Patriots in simulations. If Brady is sacked twice or less and the Patriots' running backs rush for more than 120 yards, the Patriots become the heavy 89 percent favorites.