* Tom Brady is averaging .7 interceptions per simulation, while Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging 1.5. Even if Brady throws more picks than Fitzpatrick -- only a 19 percent chance of that -- the Bills still only win 42 percent of those simulations.
* If Fitzpatrick has fewer interceptions than Brady and the Bills rushing attack averages 5 yards per carry, the Bills' chances of winning increase to 54 percent, according to simulations.
* If the Patriots rush for more yards than the Bills, Buffalo has just a 10 percent chance of winning, according to simulations. When the teams faced off in Week 4, the Patriots rushed for 247 yards and the Bills had just 98 yards on the ground.