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Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Video: AccuScore report for Pats-Bills

By ESPNBoston.com



In the video above, Prim Siripipat goes inside the numbers to see how Sunday's Patriots-Bills game (1 p.m., CBS) plays out in AccuScore game simulations.

Among the findings:

* The Patriots won 81 percent of more than 10,000 AccuScore simulations by an average score of 34-21.

* Tom Brady is averaging .7 interceptions per simulation, while Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging 1.5. Even if Brady throws more picks than Fitzpatrick -- only a 19 percent chance of that -- the Bills still only win 42 percent of those simulations.

* If Fitzpatrick has fewer interceptions than Brady and the Bills rushing attack averages 5 yards per carry, the Bills' chances of winning increase to 54 percent, according to simulations.

* If the Patriots rush for more yards than the Bills, Buffalo has just a 10 percent chance of winning, according to simulations. When the teams faced off in Week 4, the Patriots rushed for 247 yards and the Bills had just 98 yards on the ground.