Sunday, December 9, 2012
Patriots-Texans: Playing the percentages
By ESPN Stats & Information
Some quick-hit numbers on what’s at stake Monday night when the Patriots host the Texans, how the Patriots usually play in December and how Tom Brady has performed in the Monday Night Football spotlight.
* Both the Texans and Patriots have secured playoff spots. The Patriots have clinched the AFC East, the Texans need a win and Colts loss to clinch the AFC South. A Texans win, Colts loss and a loss by the Ravens OR Broncos would give the Texans a first-round bye. A Texans win, Colts loss and losses by the Ravens AND Broncos would give the Texans home-field advantage in the AFC.
* Home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs could be at stake. Ten-thousand computer simulations of the remainder of the season by AccuScore give the Texans a 77 percent chance to win the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the Patriots a 20 percent chance. If Houston wins Monday, those simulations estimate the Texans will have a 99.9 percent chance of getting the 1 seed. If the Texans lose, they end up winning No. 1 seed in 63 percent percent of simulations while the Patriots win the top seed in 36 percent of simulations.
* The Patriots are 10-1 in their last 11 games on Monday Night Football and have won 4 straight home games on Monday Night Football. Their last home loss on Monday Night Football was Week 9 2005 to the Colts, 40-21.
* Brady is 12-4 on 16 starts on Monday Night Football, winning his last 4. He’s averaged 276.2 Pass YPG with 37 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
* The Patriots have won 12 straight December games, tied for the third-longest December winning streak in league history. With a win vs. the Texans, they’ll tie the 1968-72 Cowboys for the second-longest December win streak ever. Since 2010, the Patriots are 20-0 in games played in the second half of the regular season.
* The Patriots are 19-1 in the final 4 games of the regular season since 2007. Their only loss in that span is a 34-27 loss to the Texans in Week 17 2009.
* A win would give the Patriots a 10th straight 10-win season, breaking a tie with the 2002-10 Colts for the second most consecutive 10-win seasons in NFL history.