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Friday, December 14, 2012
AccuScore report: Patriots-Niners

By ESPNBoston.com



In the video above, Prim Siripipat goes inside the numbers to see how Sunday night's Patriots-Niners game (8:20 p.m., NBC) plays out in AccuScore game simulations.

Among the findings:

* The Patriots won 62 percent of more than 10,000 AccuScore simulations by an average score of 25-22.

* AccuScore simulations have the Niners -- who lead the league in sacks -- sacking Tom Brady just 1.5 times and as a result the Patriots' QB is completing 65 percent of his passes with 2 TDs and 1 interception.

* In simulations in which the Niners sack Brady three or more times and intercept him at least once, they become the 66 percent favorites.

* In sims in which the Niners have 125 or more rushing yards and average 4.5 per carry, the Niners are the 62 percent favorites. San Francisco is averaging 161.5 rushing yards per game.