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Friday, December 28, 2012
Video: AccuScore report for Pats-Dolphins

By ESPNBoston.com



In the video above, Cary Chow goes inside the numbers to see how Sunday's Patriots-Dolphins game (4:25 p.m., CBS) plays out in AccuScore game simulations.

Among the findings:

* The Patriots won 71 percent of more than 10,000 AccuScore simulations by an average score of 26-18.

* The Dolphins are holding the Patriots to under 30 points in 60 percent of simulations. If Miami does hold New England under 30 points, its chances of victory improve from 29 to 45 percent.

* In sims in which Dolphins rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill does not throw an interception and Patriots quarterback Tom Brady throws at least one, the game becomes a 50-50 coin flip. But if Tannehill throws more picks than Brady, the Patriots are overwhelming 85 percent favorites.