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Friday, January 11, 2013
AccuScore report: Patriots-Texans

By ESPNBoston.com



In the video above, Prim Siripipat goes inside the numbers to see how Sunday's Patriots-Texans divisional playoff game (4:30 p.m., CBS) plays out in AccuScore game simulations.

Among the findings:

* The Patriots won 75 percent of more than 10,000 AccuScore simulations by an average score of 31-21.

* In simulations, Tom Brady is averaging nearly 300 passing yards and three times as many touchdown passes as interceptions.

* However, if Brady turns it over more often than he finds the end zone (a scenario that played out in just 9 percent of sims), the Texans become the 58 percent favorites.

* If the Texans force at least one turnover and hold Brady to no more than 2 touchdown passes, they increase their chances from 25 percent to 42 percent, according to sims.

* If Arian Foster can rush for at least 80 yards, the Texans become the 59 percent favorites, according to sims. Though the Patriots held Foster to less than 50 yards on the ground in their first meeting, no running back has rushed for more yards in his first three career playoff games (425 yards) than Foster.