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Friday, January 18, 2013
AccuScore report: Patriots-Ravens

By ESPNBoston.com



In the video above, Prim Siripipat goes inside the numbers to see how Sunday's Patriots-Raves AFC Championship Game (6:30 p.m., CBS) plays out in AccuScore game simulations.

Among the findings:

* The Patriots won 66 percent of more than 10,000 AccuScore simulations by an average score of 27-21.

* AccuScore projects Patriots quarterback Tom Brady and Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco to put up similar numbers.

* If Flacco doesn't throw any interceptions, the Ravens are 54 percent favorites. Flacco is averaging 1.3 interceptions in simulations. In sims in which he turns it over more than Brady, the Ravens' win probability drops to 20 percent.

* The Patriots are averaging 4.4 yards per carry and the Ravens are averaging 3.6 yards per carry in simulations.