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Friday, May 23, 2014
Assessing Patriots' win total projection

By Mike Reiss

Projecting a team's win total is something that prognosticators attempt to tackle in the offseason, which of course, has a Las Vegas-type twist to it. The over/under number has become more popular in recent years.

As Dave Tuley of ESPN Insider noted back in AprilInsider, "Fans have recognized the value of being able to place a future wager on a team without having to pick the team to win the Super Bowl. And unlike traditional odds to win the Super Bowl, they can bet against a team having a good year by betting the under and having their opinion rewarded."

In Tuley's piece, the over/under number for the Patriots was 10.5. Tuley took the over.

"The addition of cornerback Darrelle Revis certainly helps the defense and you know Tom Brady & Co. will continue to put up points whether or not Rob Gronkowski is healthy. The Pats are still the class of the division by a wide margin," he writes.

Meanwhile, Will Brinson of CBSSports.com also uses the 10.5 number in his piece, and he takes the over as well.

"No shocker to see the Pats with one of the four highest lines this year ... They've only won less than 11 games twice since 2003 and in each instance they won 10 ... Six of their games are against vastly inferior competition in the division. Assuming no major injury for Brady, worst case is 10 wins," he writes.

When we made our initial projection for the Patriots when the NFL schedule was released last month, an 11-5 record was the choice.

So, we're left to ask the question: Anyone taking the under?