New England Patriots: Michael Vick
New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick has job security. His three counterparts in the AFC East? Not so much.
Rex Ryan landed a contract extension this offseason, but don't let that fool you. He will have reason to be nervous if the New York Jets miss the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season. The Buffalo Bills' 6-10 record last season wasn't ominous for Doug Marrone -- that was just his first year on the job. But with an ownership change on the horizon, a failure to improve in 2014 might not bode well for Marrone.
Then there is Joe Philbin of the Miami Dolphins. He survived a bullying scandal that took place in his locker room and on his practice field. A late-season collapse that cost Miami a playoff berth couldn't sink Philbin, not when you consider the adversity the team fought through just to be in contention. But now Philbin enters his third year, when a lot is expected of a regime. He is likely out of second chances.
The four writers who cover the division -- Rich Cimini in New York, Mike Reiss in New England, Mike Rodak in Buffalo and James Walker in Miami -- offered their insights on the AFC East hot seat and other key topics. They also polled their Twitter followers to find out if they saw the issues differently.
Which AFC East coach enters camp on the hottest seat?
Rich Cimini: Doug Marrone's seat is lukewarm and Rex Ryan's is warm. Joe Philbin? Let's just say his tush is feeling extreme heat. Frankly, I'm a bit surprised he survived last season's debacle. Not only did the Dolphins collapse down the stretch to blow a playoff spot, but they became a national punchline because of the bullying scandal. The mess cost general manager Jeff Ireland his job, but Philbin emerged as the Teflon Man. He has now run out of mulligans. Philbin is working for a new GM, Dennis Hickey, and it's hard to imagine him returning in 2015 if the Dolphins miss the playoffs again. Philbin is an offensive-minded coach, but his offense -- quarterback Ryan Tannehill, in particular -- has shown no improvement. ... We would mention Bill Belichick's seat, except it's really not a seat. In this division, it's a throne.
Mike Rodak: This is a close race between Rex Ryan, Doug Marrone and Joe Philbin. Ryan faces the tough scrutiny of the New York market, and if the Jets' combo of quarterbacks Geno Smith and Michael Vick doesn't pan out, Ryan could be gone, despite his contract extension this year. In Buffalo, a pending ownership change naturally puts Marrone's future in doubt. I don't think CEO Russ Brandon or general manager Doug Whaley would fire Marrone even if things don't go well this season, but their voices might not matter if a new owner wants sweeping changes. In Miami, new GM Hickey has given Philbin his vote of approval, but how long will that last? If I had to pick one situation where the head coach's job is most in question, it's Philbin with the Dolphins.
James Walker: Miami's Joe Philbin has the hottest seat in the AFC East. After going a combined 15-17 his first two seasons, this year is really playoffs or bust for Philbin. He was fortunate to survive last year's late-season collapse and major locker-room issues with the bullying scandal that embarrassed the franchise. General manager Jeff Ireland and offensive coordinator Mike Sherman and others lost their jobs, but Miami owner Stephen Ross offered Philbin one more opportunity to prove he's the right coach for the team. The key for Philbin will be winning within the division. He is 4-8 against AFC East teams, and that won't cut it this season.
Which of your team's positional battles intrigues you the most?
Cimini: No question, it's the quarterback situation even though Geno Smith versus Michael Vick isn't a true open competition. No matter, it's still a compelling story, one that will create many headlines in training camp. It's Smith's job to lose, but I'm curious to gauge his development now that he has had a full season and a full offseason to immerse himself in the offense. More than anything, he should be better at seeing the field and reading defenses. How will he handle the pressure of knowing there is a capable replacement if he falters? Let's be honest, he never had to deal with that as a rookie. If Smith is outplayed by Vick, it will put the coaches in a delicate position. Clearly, they want Smith to be the starter, but they also have to consider the possible message it sends. If the best guy isn't playing, it's bad form. One position, so many fascinating subplots.
Reiss: Receiver looks like the Patriots' most compelling position battle. They are counting on big-time improvement from second-year players Aaron Dobson (second round), Josh Boyce (fourth round) and Kenbrell Thompkins (undrafted), while big 2013 free-agent signing Danny Amendola will be looking to prove he can stay healthy and recapture the magic we saw in the 2013 season opener. Veterans Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell are also expected to play significant roles, and can slippery-quick seventh-round pick Jeremy Gallon be a sleeper? Lots of questions to answer.
Rodak: The starting spot that seems most up for grabs in Buffalo this offseason is at safety. Who will start opposite Aaron Williams? The Bills lost Jairus Byrd and didn't address the loss in free agency or the draft, instead putting their faith in two of their draft selections from last season -- Duke Williams (fourth round) and Jonathan Meeks (fifth round) -- as well as a more experienced veteran, Da'Norris Searcy. With Aaron Williams recovering from shoulder surgery for most of organized team activities, we didn't get a great feel for which player had the best shot to win Byrd's old job. In the few times that Williams was on the field, it was Searcy lining up with the first team, but Duke Williams and Meeks also got reps with the first unit throughout OTAs. It's a battle that will continue into training camp.
Walker: The Dolphins have a few good position battles, but I am most intrigued by the competition to be the slot receiver because of the immense depth at the position. The Dolphins have Brandon Gibson, Rishard Matthews and rookie second-round pick Jarvis Landry all competing for one spot. In addition, these receivers have different styles. Gibson is more detailed and cerebral. He gets open with his route-running. Matthews is the biggest and most physical receiver of the bunch. Landry is sort of a combination of the two, but he lacks blazing speed. I think all three are capable of handling the position. It's just a matter of who performs the best and which style the coaching staff prefers.
@mikerodak running backs look to be more interesting than I expected, and even though there isn't competition QB growth is #1- Bob rieth (@Bob_rieth) June 16, 2014
Which veteran on your team is poised for a breakout season?
Cimini: For several reasons, it should be Quinton Coples. After two nondescript seasons, it's time to turn potential into production -- and he knows it. The talent is there. With Coples, whose work ethic was questioned when he came out of North Carolina, it is a matter of want-to. Does he want to be great? The former first-round pick was slowed last season by a position change ("rush" linebacker) and a fractured ankle in the preseason, which cost him three games. Now he should be comfortable at the position and he dropped weight in the offseason, which should help his quickness on the edge as a pass-rusher. Coples has the ability to turn a middling pass rush into a very good one.
Reiss: With the Patriots bolstering their secondary with Darrelle Revis, a player like third-year defensive end Chandler Jones could be a primary beneficiary of better coverage. He had six sacks as a rookie and followed that up with 11.5 last season. Could he hit 15 this season? As long as he stays healthy, it wouldn't surprise me.
Rodak: There was no shortage of breakout performers for the Bills last season, especially on defense. Defensive end Jerry Hughes, cornerback Leodis McKelvin, safety Aaron Williams and defensive tackle Marcell Dareus all enjoyed the best seasons. This season, I see two strong candidates for breakout performances: wide receiver Robert Woods and cornerback Stephon Gilmore. Woods had a strong start to last season -- he was a candidate for NFL rookie of the month in September -- but a revolving door at quarterback and a late-season ankle injury hampered his progress. If quarterback EJ Manuel bounces back from his up-and-down rookie season, Woods could stand to benefit. I would give him the edge to break out over Gilmore, a former first-round pick who was limited by a wrist injury most of last season but is among the better cornerbacks in the division when healthy.
Walker: Last season the Dolphins saw significant returns from a second-year defensive end, Olivier Vernon. He led the Dolphins with 11.5 sacks and really came on strong in 2013. So I'm going to stick with the same position and the same experience level and go with current second-year defensive end Dion Jordan. The Dolphins got little return for their No. 3 overall pick last year -- he had just 26 tackles and two sacks. But I like what I saw from Jordan during organized team activities and minicamp. Jordan hit the weight room hard this offseason and bulked up about 17 pounds. He's much stronger, which is key because Miami's coaching staff was concerned about Jordan's ability to stuff the run. Jordan should put up better numbers and be an all-around better player. His biggest issue is getting playing time behind Vernon and Pro Bowl defensive end Cameron Wake.
@JamesWalkerNFL Dion Jordan. Can't hold him back anymore. He will get 10 sacks and will be on the field 40 plays per game- Tom Ernisse (@ternisse13) June 4, 2014
How many years do you think Tom Brady has left?
Cimini: No doubt, Jets fans will celebrate the day Brady decides to call it quits. Statistically, he's in a two-year decline, but he played with such a patchwork receiving corps last season that it's hard to say he is going south. Brady, who turns 37 in August, should have at least two more Brady-like seasons. I'm basing that on recent history. After all, John Elway won his second Super Bowl at 38 -- and promptly retired. It's rare in the modern era for a quarterback to play well beyond 38. Brett Favre had a great year at 40, and Warren Moon enjoyed a good year at 38, but the examples are few and far between. The Patriots drafted Jimmy Garoppolo in the second round for a reason. Brady is signed through 2017, but I'd be mildly surprised if he's still around at the age of 40.
Reiss: I'm not going to be the one who bets against Tom Brady. I still see him playing at a high level through the completion of his current contract in 2017, and based on the way he takes care of his body, the dedication to his craft, and the desire to play as long as possible, I could see him going the Warren Moon route and playing into his 40s. It's all contingent on good health, but will Tom Brady still be slinging passes and winning games in the year 2020? Yup.
Rodak: I would peg Brady's window at 3-4 years. In the past, he has spoken about his fear of the "abyss" that will follow his playing career. Yet we've also seen him in the public eye as a father in recent years and I think he would embrace that role in retirement. The bigger question is whether Bill Belichick would ever "move on" from Brady or simply allow him to play -- and start -- as long as he'd like. Belichick is markedly unemotional when he makes personnel decisions, so I don't think he would necessarily let Brady dictate when his career ends. Even if Belichick's final season coincides with Brady's, I think Belichick would want to leave the organization in a good spot. That could mean handing over the reins to a younger starter if the situation calls for it.
Walker: I covered Brady for two seasons as ESPN.com's AFC East reporter. To me, he has always come off as a player who wished he could play football forever. You would be surprised how many NFL players are not that way. Brady isn't motivated by money or fame. I think there is a genuine love for the game and thirst for competition that will be hard for Brady to let go. That is why I expect Brady to hold on for as long as he can. I expect two or three more quality seasons, but I wouldn't be surprised if Brady tries to go longer. I think Brady is too competitive to walk away on his own. Father Time might have to pull him away from the NFL.
@MikeReiss Two. (hoping he goes out with a ring (a la John Elway)- Because i think he has less than 3 - I'm watching the back up QB battle.- Elizabeth (@capesquad) June 18, 2014
Good start for the top offense. The Patriots’ top offense couldn’t have had a much better night. Quarterback Tom Brady played 16 snaps, and on the first play from scrimmage, out of a two-tight end set with Jake Ballard and Zach Sudfeld, running back Stevan Ridley burst up the middle for a 62-yard gain. It was a tone-setter, as the Patriots ran on every play of their six-play opening touchdown march. On the second drive, which resulted in another touchdown, Brady was impressive through the air, with running back Shane Vereen's touchdown catch in the back left-hand corner of the end zone a beauty to cap it off. New faces, same explosive results. The second unit came on after the first two series.
Early entrance for Tebow: The plan wasn't for third-string quarterback Tim Tebow to come into the game late in the second quarter, but when top backup Ryan Mallett was knocked out with a head injury, Tebow entered with 1:22 remaining in the first half. He played the rest of the game, leading one touchdown drive, with the Patriots unveiling an offense with read-option concepts. That’s been one of the interesting parts of watching Tebow in practice, as he hasn’t always been running the traditional Patriots offense; Brady and Mallett would almost never run a read-option offense. The Patriots could see value in that from a scout-team perspective, as they’ll see it this season from foes, which is a reminder that when judging Tebow’s performance, it should be done outside the realm of the traditional Patriots attack.
Top defense with shades of '12 performance: The Patriots’ top defense played three series for a total of 11 snaps. Things started somewhat similarly to what we saw last season from the unit, with the Eagles attacking early and scoring on a 47-yard long-bomb touchdown from Michael Vick to DeSean Jackson. Cornerback Aqib Talib was in coverage. But the unit then forced a punt before defensive tackle Tommy Kelly and defensive end Chandler Jones combined on a strip sack recovered for a turnover. So, some ups and downs for the top group. The big takeaway: Kelly looks like the surefire starter next to Vince Wilfork at defensive tackle and could be an upgrade over last season’s tandem of Kyle Love and Brandon Deaderick.
Blount makes his case for RB spot: If there was one player who might not have been considered a roster lock who most improved his standing, running back LeGarrette Blount is a good choice. The 6-foot, 250-pound bruiser had a highlght-reel, zig-zagging 51-yard touchdown run against the Eagles' second-unit defense in the second quarter. Ridley was the Patriots' lead back, and projects to that role during the regular season, but Blount made a case to be a strong No. 2 option. The first-half running back snaps broke down this way: Vereen 16, Ridley 15, Leon Washington seven, Blount five, Brandon Bolden two. The Patriots could keep all five on the final roster given the special-teams value that Washington and Bolden provide.
Injury updates: Outside of Mallett, the Patriots' second-string quarterback who left late in the second quarter with a head injury and didn't return, there were no major injuries for the Patriots. Mallett watched the rest of the second half from the sideline.
Learning experience a good one for young pass-catchers: The Patriots played 46 offensive snaps in the first half, and with rookie receiver Aaron Dobson in for 26 of them and rookie tight end Zach Sudfeld ion for 22, it was a reminder how important the preseason is for players like them. The Patriots, as they have in training camp, threw them right into the mix. Sudfeld will score points for some nice hustle on Blount's 51-yard touchdown to help him earn his last 10 yards with a final block. Rookie receivers Josh Boyce and Kenbrell Thompkins (four catches in 1st half) also played a lot. Some valuable tape for them to study.
Quick hits: It was a meaningful night for Ballard, who missed all of 2012 after undergoing serious knee surgery, as he played 12 of the first 16 snaps before his night was over. He might be the team's best blocking tight end outside of Rob Gronkowski. On defense, top draft pick Jamie Collins didn't play with the first unit. He was a weakside linebacker on the second-unit. The Patriots had 16 players who didn't suit up. Defensive end Marcus Benard was used as the first defensive end in sub packages, often rushing from an interior position. He's an under-the-radar player to watch in the weeks to come.
With Eagles quarterback Michael Vick (ribs) held out of practice Wednesday and his status for Sunday's game uncertain, New England will be forced to prep for both him and backup Vince Young. Last week, after Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel injured his throwing hand, New England was forced to scout both Kansas City backups Tyler Palko (a southpaw who made his first NFL start) and rookie righty Ricky Stanzi.
"Both of them are great players," Patriots cornerback Antwaun Molden said of Young and Vick. "You know Vince,  Rookie of the Year and he still has that talent. Both of them can run and pass, and both of them have strong arms."
Patriots cornerback Kyle Arrington cautioned that the differences between Vick and Young run deeper than their throwing arm.
"They are not the same player at all," said Arrington. "Vick has good arm and he's a little bit faster, a little more dangerous running the ball. Young, he did a good job managing the game [in last week's win over the Giants] and had a heck of a drive at the end there. We just have to be ready, study a lot this week -- put in good preparation and try to come out and execute."
Asked if last week's quarterback preparation gives New England any sort of a head start, especially with a short week this time around, Molden said it just comes down to squeezing in that extra film work.
"It's the same approach -- you have to make yourself familiar with any unfamiliar guy with extra film and studying," he said.
During a conference call with the New England media on Wednesday, Reid noted that Vick remains day-to-day with the hope he can practice later this week.
"He won't practice today and then we'll just take it day-by-day, see how it goes here," said Reid. "Vince will take reps and we'll see how [Vick is] doing tomorrow. He threw yesterday and [will do a] little more as we go on here."
Asked about Young's performance in last week's win over the Giants, Reid said his backup settled in after a rocky (and rusty) start.
"He started off a little bit slow, it felt like he was getting used to the speed of the game -- it's a little different than going against the scout team, or being part of the scout team," said Reid. "He progressively got better and settled down."