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In an ideal world, prospects would follow a natural progression by advancing a level each year and assuming their rightful place on the big league club in a few years' time. But every season, a variety of circumstances conspire to keep a player at the same level he spent the previous year, be it a logjam at the position or additional developmental requirements for the player.

Whatever the case, repeating a level is far from an indictment of the player's future. This year, the list of players who began 2012 with the same affiliate they started with in 2011 comprises a pair of top prospects trying to permanently break through the glass ceiling in Pawtucket, a bundle of bonus babies, and several players on the 40-man roster. Here's a rundown of those players, and how they've fared so far this season.

Triple-A Pawtucket

Jose Iglesias, SS (Opening Day Age: 22; SoxProspects.com ranking: No. 5)
Iglesias, the slick-fielding Cuban defector, is hitting .267 with three extra-base hits and a .324 OBP. Last year, he hit .235 with just a .285 OBP. He spent a week with the big league club in May 2011 before earning a September call-up, and was briefly summoned to the majors when Kevin Youkilis went down earlier this month. The team seems comfortable with Iglesias in a pinch–his defense is more than ready for the majors, but the Red Sox are happy to let his development continue in Pawtucket.

Lars Anderson, 1B/LF (Age 24; SP No. 21)
Anderson, a former top prospect at first, has been working in the outfield to make himself more valuable in Boston. But until then, he continues to bide his time in Pawtucket, where he spent most of the previous two seasons before earning a September call-up each year. He was summoned to Boston in April, where he was utilized some in left field. Anderson is batting .255 with three home runs and an .811 OPS in 106 at-bats in Pawtucket this season, down slightly from last year, when he hit .265 with 14 homers.

Other notables
Second baseman Tony Thomas is batting .242/.292/.424 this year for the PawSox. ... Utility man Nate Spears, the perennial spring training darling, began the year with Pawtucket again before earning an early call-up to Boston. He's hitting .226 in 26 games for Pawtucket. ... Right-hander Brandon Duckworth, the eight-year major league veteran, has begun 2012 by going 5-0 with a 3.95 ERA in nine appearances (seven starts). ... Right-hander Tony Pena Jr., a former major league shortstop, posted a 3.56 ERA in 33 appearances (14 starts) last year, but has struggled to a 5.71 ERA in eight appearances (one start) this season.

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Mark Melancon came to Boston with big expectations this spring. After posting a 2.78 ERA and 20 saves with the Astros in 2011, the Red Sox traded both Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland to Houston to bring the reliever to Boston, with the plan that Melancon would serve as the club’s primary set-up man. But the season didn’t start off as planned. In 4 games with the Red Sox, Melancon faced 18 batters, recording just 6 outs, and allowing 10 hits, 5 home runs, and 11 earned runs in the process. He was optioned to Triple-A Pawtucket on April 18.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that Melancon has been outstanding since arriving with the PawSox, seemingly regaining some of the confidence that appeared to be missing during his time with the Red Sox.

“He’s done a nice job,” said Pawtucket manager Arnie Beyeler. “He’s been working on his off-speed stuff, a backdoor cutter, locating his fastball well, and keeping the ball down in the zone.”

In 9 appearances with the PawSox, Melancon has yet to give up a run, while earning 2 saves and striking out an impressive 17 batters in 9.2 IP. He attributes his success to regaining an aggressive approach on the mound, while also mixing in his secondary pitches.

“It’s just about being aggressive,” said Melancon. “My attitude as I go out to the mound is being aggressive and getting after it. I have to keep throwing inside. I’ve also worked on my curveball, I’m throwing my changeup more. I just feel more comfortable overall”

Looking back, the 27-year-old right-hander believes that he strayed from that aggressive approach during his short stint with Boston earlier in the year.

“There’s so many times, especially when you’re in big games and big situations, where you try to slow the game down -- sometimes that can happen too much,” said Melancon. “I think that I was trying to just slow it down too much. That took away from my aggressiveness and the way I was going about things. I needed to just re-evaluate and use that energy and adrenaline in the right direction as opposed to trying to stop it.”

On Wednesday, Melancon was able to stay aggressive and work himself out of a jam in the 9th inning. Entering the game in the bottom of the 9th with the PawSox holding a 5-2 lead, he struck out the first two batters (former Sox farmhands Joe Thurston and Ray Chang), but then allowed consecutive singles which brought the tying run to the plate. After falling behind in the count 2-1, Melancon went back to his fastball and got the final batter of the game to line out to right field, taking home the save.

“He made a nice pitch (on third batter of inning), the guy hit a groundball that could have gone right to somebody but it went up through the middle. That’s baseball,” said Beyeler. “Then he just got in a situation where he missed with some off-speed stuff, and he had to come back with a fastball. In the end, he got the out.”

Having now been optioned to Pawtucket for over 20 days, Melancon will burn his final option year in 2012. However, that also means that Boston front office has the luxury of moving the right-hander back-and-forth between Boston and Pawtucket as often as it chooses this season. That being said, it must be difficult for Melancon not to think about when he’ll get the call back to Boston.

“I’m just taking the opportunity to learn and progress as much as I can while I’m down here. Hopefully, in the long-run that will help me more than anything else.”

As Melancon has less than two years of major league service time, he’s under Boston’s control through at least the 2015 season, and possibly through 2016 depending how long he remains in the minors this season. So the Red Sox front office has every incentive to think about the long-term with respect to if and when he’s ready to re-join the big club.

SoxProspects Senior Editor Matt Huegel contributed to this column.

It has been obvious to Red Sox followers this season that the bullpen has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses, as Boston relievers’ 6.55 ERA entering this weekend was nearly half a run higher than that of any other team. However, help could soon be on the way. Earlier this week the club moved its 2011 minor league pitcher of the year, Alex Wilson, to the bullpen, setting him on a track to possibly help in the majors quite soon.

Until the move was actually made, the Red Sox gave no indication that such a transition was imminent. But hours before Wilson's scheduled start Tuesday for Triple-A Pawtucket, word came down that he was being replaced by veteran Brandon Duckworth. This led to natural questions about whether Wilson, the 14th-ranked prospect at SoxProspects.com, was injured. Those were quickly put to rest. Instead, hopes of a quick elevation to the big league club for the righty emerged.

“I was told [Monday] night,” Wilson said. “I sat down and [they] said they were going to make the switch. The front office came to the decision to go ahead and slide me back there, and [told me] not to look at it as a demotion, but as an opportunity. I’m going to take that and run with it.”

It is an opportunity that could yield quick results for the 25-year-old if the Red Sox bullpen continues to struggle. The organization made a similar switch with Junichi Tazawa in spring training, and he has been one of the better relievers in Boston since his promotion on April 18.

A reliever in his final season at Texas A&M after undergoing Tommy John surgery the year before, many scouts viewed Wilson's fastball-slider combination as tailor made for a bullpen role at the big league level.

“I’m lucky enough to have done it before, so I know what it’s going to be like coming into it,” Wilson said. “The biggest thing for me, it’s not the training, but the mindset of being ready every day. I’ve been used to having four days off, not having to worry about game action or anything like that. For me to be ready day in and day out will be the biggest adjustment.

“I’ve always been a guy that comes right at you -- fastball, slider, changeup if I need it -- kind of deal. I think it’ll play well into my game actually.”

Wilson made his first relief appearance on Tuesday to mixed results. While he struck out a batter in his inning of work, he also allowed an earned run on two hits. An adjustment period is to be expected as he settles into the role, but Wilson expressed confidence following the outing and had little negative to say about the experience.

“I felt great today,” the 6-foot-1 right-hander said. “I had no problem whatsoever. It’s always nice to start with a clean inning. I had the whole half inning -- I knew about it ahead of time. It was smooth sailing really.”

PawSox manager Arnie Beyeler echoed that sentiment, saying, “We talked [to him] earlier about his routine and he seemed to get up and wait, and do what he’s supposed to do. He didn’t get up early and throw down there forever. He just got up, went in, and did what he does.”

SoxProspects.com director of scouting Chris Mellen was in attendance at Pawtucket for the appearance and commented afterward that Wilson appeared to be rushing his delivery and generally looked a bit out of sync. As a result, he wasn't able to keep his fastball down and the pitch sat around 91-93 m.p.h., topping out at 94, similar velocity to what he showed as a starter. But Mellen believes that in short bursts the righty's fastball will be able to touch as high as 97 m.p.h. as he settles into the role.

“I thought he did a nice job of getting the ball down [the] further in the outing he went,” said Beyeler. “As he went on, his fastball got down in the zone much better. That’s where he’s going to have to be to have some success and that’s where he hasn't been consistently so far this season.”

In general, the Red Sox prefer to let pitching prospects work as starters for as long as possible to give them more opportunity to hone their craft and develop their pitches, so Wilson had started exclusively as a professional since signing as a second-round pick in 2009.

With a 3.05 ERA in 21 Double-A starts last season, followed by a solid four-game stint in Pawtucket in which he had 24 strikeouts in 21 innings, Wilson had handled the role well. This season with the PawSox, he had a 1.80 ERA up until a rough start on April 19 in which he allowed six earned runs at Syracuse. So rather than being based on performance, the move is likely a sign that the Red Sox are content with their other starting depth options at this time, and see this as an opportunity to improve one of their biggest areas of weakness at the big league level.

Since Wilson spent those years starting, there are still many nuances of relieving for him to adapt to, such as coming into games mid-inning and making back-to-back appearances. Beyeler said that there are no immediate plans to pitch Wilson in a back-to-back situation, but that will be worked into the mix before long.

“I’m sure I’ll get different kind of looks -- be brought in the middle of an inning,” Wilson said. “It’s just getting acclimated to that whole world. It’s totally different and it’s a different mindset. It’ll take some time to get used to, but hopefully we’ll make it quick.

“It’s just going to take a couple of outings to kind of get the feel back and really learn my body again for this kind of situation.”

The Red Sox can only hope Wilson is correct in that assessment of how long the transition will take. If true, it may not be long before he receives the call he's been waiting for since signing with the organization.

Matt Huegel is a senior editor and columnist for SoxProspects.com. Kevin Pereira contributed to this report.

It’s no secret the John Henry ownership group has had its share of hits and misses when it comes to long-term major league contracts, whether free-agent acquisitions or re-signing of homegrown Red Sox players to extended deals. The same has been true with high-profile signings in the amateur and international markets -- there have been some great acquisitions that have paid dividends for years, and others that didn’t live up to the hype. The current ownership group has given signings bonuses of $1 million or more to 25 different amateur or international players since December 2001, all of which are listed below by bonus amount. Decide for yourself, but it seems to me that the front office has had a better rate of success with “bonus babies” than it has with major league deals.

1. SS Jose Iglesias, $6,250,000 in September 2009. Currently playing for Triple-A Pawtucket, Iglesias has been tabbed as Boston’s shortstop of the future, and could take over the role as early as midseason. While his defense is remarkable, questions still remain as to whether he can be better than a .235 hitter at the major league level.

2. RHP Casey Kelly, $3,000,000 in July 2008. Kelly impressed in two seasons as a pitcher in the Red Sox system and was sent to San Diego in the Adrian Gonzalez deal. Through two starts with Triple-A Tucson this year, Kelly has posted a 2.25 ERA and a 14/0 K/BB ratio in 12 innings, but he’s currently on the disabled list. He projects as a middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Padres.

3. RHP Anthony Ranaudo, $2,550,000 in August 2010. Ranaudo went 9-6 with a 3.97 ERA for High-A Salem and Low-A Greenville in 2011. His 2012 debut has been delayed due to a groin strain, and he’s currently in extended spring training with the hopes of joining Double-A Portland in mid-May. Ranaudo projects as a starter for a first-division team.

4. C Blake Swihart, $2,500,000 in August 2011. One of Boston’s first round picks from the 2011 draft, Swihart has lots of raw potential. He’s presently catching for Greenville, hitting .214/.297/.339.

5. RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka, $2,000,000 in December 2006. The signing bonus was just a pittance of the money the front office shelled out to sign Matsuzaka, which also included a $52 million major league deal and a $51.1 million posting fee. The 31-year-old right-hander started a rehab assignment with Salem on April 23, and is slated to re-join the big club within a month.

6. OF Ryan Westmoreland, $2,000,000 in August 2008. Westmoreland was considered one of the top prospects in the system when a cavernous malformation was discovered on his brain stem in March 2010. He’s been rehabbing from the surgery for the last two years, and is currently in extended spring training. He may be able to get back into game action by season’s end.

7. SS Jose Vinicio, $1,950,000 in July 2009. Signed on his 16th birthday, Vinicio is still just 18 and shows lots of promise, particularly if he can add some size and strength. He’s currently hitting .256/.360/.419 for Greenville.

8. RHP Junichi Tazawa, $1,800,000 in December 2008. Tazawa has impressed in 2 appearances with Boston and 4 appearances with Pawtucket so far this year. He profiles as a reliable middle-inning reliever, and could possibly develop into a late-inning setup man.

9. LHP Mike Rozier, $1,575,000 in August 2004. Boston gave Rozier one of the club’s largest bonuses ever at the time to sign him away from his football scholarship to North Carolina. He struggled with weight issues early in his career and his fastball inexplicably dropped from low 90s to low 80s over his tenure in the Red Sox system. He posted a career 5.23 ERA and was released in March 2009.

10. RHP Daniel Bard, $1,550,000 in August 2006. Though he struggled in his first year in the minors, Bard developed into an elite setup man. He still has the potential to develop into a very good starter or elite closer. Put this one solidly in the win column for the front office.

11. RHP Henry Owens, $1,550,000 in August 2011. A supplemental first round pick in 2011, Owens is now in Greenville’s starting rotation at the age of 19. The 6-foot-7 lefty has been able to miss a lot of bats in the very early stages of his career, but he needs to work on improving his stamina.

12. OF David Murphy, $1,525,000 in June 2003. A former first-round pick, Murphy was shipped to Texas as part of the infamous Eric Gagne deal. He’s been a solid and reliable 3rd/4th outfielder for the Rangers since 2007.

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The 19th overall pick in the 2011 draft, right-handed pitcher Matt Barnes is on the precipice of making his professional debut with the Greenville Drive on Easter Sunday. A native of Bethel, Conn., Barnes is already considered a top-10 prospect in the Red Sox system, and one who projects as a middle-of-the-rotation starter at the major league level. Starting as a tee-baller in a small New England town, he has had an interesting road to get to the professional ranks.

“I started baseball at a young age, five or six – I played tee-ball, little league, middle school, high school, the whole nine yards,” said Barnes. “I played soccer when I was really young too, and I attempted freshman football, but it wasn’t really my thing. My second love for a sport is basketball; I played that for seven or eight years through to varsity.”

After a very successful prep career in which he won All-Division, All-Conference and All-State honors as a senior for Bethel High School, Barnes was not drafted. He opted to play ball at the University of Connecticut, a team that was not considered a top-tier program at the time, but was indeed heading in that direction.

“I went into my freshman year at UConn with a lot of other great players. I started off as a midweek starter for them, and I would relieve on the weekends,” said Barnes, who went 5-3 with a 5.43 ERA in his freshman campaign.

In his sophomore season, Barnes became a weekend starter, posting an 8-3 record with a 3.92 ERA. He became the Friday starter in his junior season, going 11-5 with a 1.93 ERA and 117 strikeouts in 121 innings. He attributes a lot of his success to his Huskies teammates.

“We had a ton of talent,” said the right-hander. “When you look back, we had three first-rounders, a second rounder, and another six guys drafted between Rounds 10 and 20 over a two-year period.”

Among those players were George Springer, an outfielder selected 11th overall by Houston in 2011; Nick Ahmed, a shortstop drafted by Atlanta in the second round in 2011; and third baseman Mike Olt, who was picked 49th overall by Texas in 2010. Like Barnes, Springer and Olt grew up in Connecticut, while Ahmed comes from East Longmeadow, Mass., just minutes over the Connecticut border.

“I credit Coach [Jim] Penders and the coaching staff there for doing a good job of keeping the guys in state,” said Barnes. “Despite what many people think, people in the Northeast can play baseball. It’s just a little harder dealing with the weather and things of that nature. Keeping the in-state players at UConn really just kind of jumped us up to the next level.”

Early in his college career, Barnes and his teammates began garnering the attention of professional scouts.

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Join us on Friday at noon for a chat with the radio broadcasters for the Triple-A Pawtucket Red Sox (Aaron Goldsmith), the Double-A Portland Sea Dogs (Mike Antonellis) and Single-A Salem Red Sox (Evan Lepler) along with SoxProspects.com founder Mike Andrews. Together they will answer your questions on Red Sox prospects from noon-1 p.m.

While pitching in the Red Sox system is thin in terms of elite arms, there are several pitchers in the organization that could develop into major league contributors. Nearly all of the best pitching prospects in the system right now are minor league starters, but many of those starters project as bullpen arms over the long term. And while the major league club has a handful of arms locked up to long-term deals, there is plenty of room for these prospects to crack the big-league rotation or bullpen in the foreseeable future.

Here’s a breakdown of the top pitching prospects in the Red Sox minor league system, separated as projected starters and projected relievers.

PROJECTED STARTERS

Anthony Ranaudo (Age: 22)

How acquired: Drafted in the supplemental 1st round in 2010 ($2,550,000 signing bonus)
2011 stats: 9-6, 3.97 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 117 strikeouts/46 walks in 127 innings with High-A Salem and Low-A Greenville
2012 status: Minor league camp. Headed to Double-A Portland, possibly as the opening day starter.
Scouting report: Ranaudo was considered the top pitcher in his draft class and the second-best overall draft prospect heading into the 2010 season after going 12-3 with a 3.04 ERA and striking out 159 batters in 124.1 innings in 2009, on the way to leading LSU to a national championship. He fell to the Red Sox in the draft after a poor 2010 season, which was hampered by confidence issues and arm problems. He has a highly-projectable arm with the frame to withstand the rigors of starting at the major league level. Throwing from a high 3/4 arm slot, his fastball currently sits at 91-93 mph and tops out at 95 mph. He should add more sitting velocity as he fills out his frame. He has average-to-better command, but he can tire early in outings, leading his shoulder to fly open and resulting in reduced command in spells. Ranaudo also mixes in a plus high-70s curveball that has the potential to be a future knee buckler at the major league level. His third pitch, a low-80s changeup, is a work in progress but has the potential to develop into an average major league pitch. In 2012, he should focus on honing his changeup, incorporating his lower body into his mechanics more, and building stamina deeper into games.
Projection: Third starter
Ceiling: Ace starter
Floor: Sixth starter/swingman

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In the outfield, the Red Sox have a handful of prospects that could develop into impact major leaguers, although none are sure bets at this stage.

The club also has some solid depth at the upper levels of the system, whether in the form of major-league veterans who will serve as big-league insurance or minor-league veterans who project as contributing major-league role players. There’s some room for upward advancement to the big club as well, as only Carl Crawford is signed to a long-term deal; Jacoby Ellsbury and Ryan Sweeney are under club control through 2013, and Cody Ross will be a free agent next offseason.

With that, here’s a look at the top outfield prospects in the Red Sox minor league system.

Ryan Kalish (Age: 23)

How acquired: Drafted in the ninth round in 2006 ($600,000 signing bonus)
2011 stats: .228 AVG/.291 OBP/.293 SLG with 0 home runs for Triple-A Pawtucket and short-season Lowell (rehab assignment) (92 at-bats total)
2012 status: On 40-man roster, 2 options remaining. Kalish will begin the season rehabbing from labrum surgery in extended spring training, and should rejoin Pawtucket in May or June.
Scouting report: Kalish is an excellent athlete with a solid build, good bat speed and lots of quickness. He plays the game at full tilt, which makes him a fan favorite, but has also contributed to injury. He makes average contact to all fields, has decent power, solid plate discipline and above-average speed. He also has a high baseball IQ with a tough demeanor and a high compete level. In the field, he has a reliable glove, excellent range, an average arm and average accuracy. He plays all three outfield positions well. Kalish tends to be a very popular player with coaches, teammates and the front office. He’s missed substantial time during his career with various injuries, and that lost development time could be detrimental to his major-league potential. That being said, he’s still just 23 and already has 53 big-league games under his belt. He’s slated to return to the field with Pawtucket in May or June this season and could contribute to the big club in September.
Projection: Versatile third/fourth outfielder for a first-division club
Ceiling: All-Star outfielder
Floor: Injury-derailed career

Bryce Brentz (23)

How acquired: Drafted in the supplemental first round in 2010 ($889,200 signing bonus)
2011 stats: .306/.365/.574 with 30 home runs for High-A Salem and Low-A Greenville
2012 status: Minor-league camp. Should break camp with Double-A Portland.
Scouting report: Brentz is a solid athlete with a well-developed power hitter’s body. After showing star potential in college, he struggled upon initial exposure to pro ball in 2010, but made nice adjustments in 2011. Offensively, he has plus bat speed and generates strong lift, but he’s ultra-aggressive at the plate and needs to improve his pitch selection. He’s gotten away with chasing hard breaking balls off the plate and taking advantage of mistake pitches in A-ball, but he will eventually be tested by Double-A pitching. Overall, he projects to hit for high power to all fields with a mediocre batting average. If he hones his approach, he could become a solid-average contact hitter. He has slightly below-average speed on the basepaths and range in the outfield. Defensively, he has a plus arm that should keep him in right field. He will need to improve his routes and judgment when charging balls.
Projection: Second-division third outfielder
Ceiling: All-Star outfielder
Floor: Fringe major leaguer

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Unlike first base, middle infield is a position of strength and depth in the Red Sox minor league system. I lump second baseman and shortstops into one collective installment, as the organization has often developed top-tier middle-infield prospects as shortstops, only converting them over to second base at the latest possible stages of development. And while there is certainly room for upward mobility at the shortstop position in the organization, Dustin Pedroia has second base locked up for the foreseeable future. With that in mind, here’s a look at the top middle-infield prospects in the Boston system.

SS Xander Bogaerts (Age: 19)

How Acquired: International free agent, August 2009 ($410,00 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .260 AVG/.324 OBP/.509 SLG with 16 home runs for Low-A Greenville
2012 Status: Minor league camp. On the bubble between Low-A Greenville and High-A Salem to start 2012.
Scouting Report: A 19-year-old top prospect out of Aruba, Bogaerts has an athletic and lean-but-powerful frame. He has shown a high baseball IQ with impressive maturity during his first two seasons in the Sox system, dominating the Dominican Summer League in 2010 and posting impressive power numbers for an 18-year-old in Low-A in 2011. He has a smooth, fluid swing with an excellent ability to generate lift and drive the ball to all fields. He is very strong with explosive hands, and the ball flies off his bat when he gets the sweet spot of the barrel on it. Bogaerts has the potential to develop into a middle-of-the-order, run-producing, home-run hitter. However, he presently has below-average pitch recognition and strike-zone judgment, can struggle with off-speed stuff, and tends to be overly aggressive at times. All of those should improve with experience and coaching, but that’s surely not a guarantee. On defense, Bogaerts has a slightly above-average arm, solid range, subpar footwork and an adequate glove. His fundamentals are a work-in-progress, but he’s still more advanced than most 19-year-olds. While he may be able to stick at shortstop long-term, it’s slightly more likely that he ends up at third base or left field, particularly if he fills out his frame into that of a major league home-run hitter.
Projection: Impact starting left fielder
Ceiling: Franchise third baseman
Floor: Double-A bust

SS Jose Iglesias (22)

How Acquired: International free agent, September 2009 ($6,000,00 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .235/.285/.269 with 1 home run for Triple-A Pawtucket
2012 Status: On 40-man roster, 2 options remaining. Likely will start 2012 with Pawtucket, but could get the call to Boston early-to-mid season
Scouting Report: Iglesias has elite defensive skills, highlighted by extremely quick hands, a soft glove, excellent instincts, above-average range, fluid movements and a plus arm. If he can get regular playing time, he will be a perennial Gold Glove shortstop. If he’s unable to cut it offensively, he also can play second base and third base adequately, and thus at a minimum could be a valuable utility player. On offense, Iglesias has plus bat speed, quick wrists, a compact swing and above-average speed. He doesn’t have much power behind his swing at this point, and doesn’t project to add a lot. Additionally, his approach is extremely impatient and he needs to continue to work at developing a more disciplined understanding of the strike zone. He is likely to end up as a No. 9 hitter, but with substantial improvement in plate approach, he has the tools to become a No. 2 hitter. Due to his advanced defensive skills, we may see Iglesias hit the majors before he’s absolutely ready on offense, meaning he’d need to develop on the job. In that case, it’s possible he could be a .230-ish hitter in his first few seasons, but with the right development he could end up as a .285 hitter.
Projection: Long-term regular at shortstop, perennial Gold Glove winner, below-average offensive player approaching average offensive contributions during his peak seasons
Ceiling: Franchise shortstop
Floor: Utility infielder capable of starting on occasion

2B Sean Coyle (20)

How Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd round in 2010 ($1,300,000 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .247/.362/.464 with 14 home runs for Greenville
2012 Status: Minor league camp. Likely to begin season with Salem.
Scouting Report: Coyle is a small-framed second baseman with a muscular build and a strong core. He has a compact swing with plus bat speed and a level path. Despite his smallish frame, Coyle has average-to-slightly-above-average power potential. When he gets the bat on the ball, he tends to drive it to the gaps, resulting in a lot of extra-base hits. A decent contact hitter who will draw a lot of walks, Coyle’s approach still needs some refinement to ensure he’s laying off bad pitches and not taking too many strikes. He has very good speed on the base paths. Defensively, Coyle is fundamentally sound in all respects, and projects to be a capable second baseman at the major league level.
Projection: Second-division starter
Ceiling: All-Star second baseman
Floor: Fringe major leaguer

2B Oscar Tejeda (22)

How Acquired: International free agent, July 2006 ($525,000 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .249/.297/.339 with 5 home runs for Double-A Portland
2012 Status: On 40-man roster, 2 options remaining. Likely slated to go back to Portland.
Scouting Report: Tejeda is a terrific athlete who is always brimming with confidence. On offense, he makes decent contact and has shown some flashes of the ability to develop into a .300 hitter. But he needs to develop a plan at the plate and tone down the aggressiveness of his approach. He has some holes in his swing, and advanced pitchers will continue to take advantage of that unless improvements are made. His speed and power tools are above-average but won’t carry him if he can’t get the bat on the ball more. Similarly, he has the tools on defense, but he’s still presently a below-average defender, as he lacks concentration and too often struggles with routine plays. He could end up in the outfield in the not-so-distant future. While Tejeda has a high overall ceiling given his tools, he’s still somewhat raw and difficult to project. On the one hand, he’s just 22 and has always been age-advanced, but on the other hand he’s already spent five years in the system and his year-to-year development has been quite inconsistent. He’s the type of player that might benefit from a change of scenery, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him included as part of a trade in 2012.
Projection: Second-division bench player
Ceiling: Second-division starter
Floor: Triple-A player with minimal success when given occasional major league opportunities

SS Jose Vinicio (18)

How Acquired: International free agent (July 2009) ($1,950,000 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .291/.337/.419 with 2 home runs for the rookie level GCL Red Sox
2012 Status: Minor league camp. Could start season with short-season Lowell or Greenville
Scouting Report: The Red Sox signed Vinicio out of the Dominican Republic on his 16th birthday in 2009, and he spent the last two seasons in the Gulf Coast League. Heading into this third professional season, he has outstanding present defensive tools with above-average range, quick hands, a solid-average arm, good techniques and impressive instincts. He should stick at shortstop over the long-term. On offense, he’s a switch hitter with a more fluid swing from the left side. Overall, Vinicio makes average contact, has above-average speed, has minimal power projection, and shows an adequate approach for his age and level. Now 18, Vinicio is still very small, and his offensive progression is strongly tied to his physical development. He needs to add a lot of bulk without overly limiting his range and speed.
Projection: Fringe major leaguer
Ceiling: Second-division starter, No. 9 hitter
Floor: A-ball player

Others to watch: Mookie Betts (2011 5th-round pick, $750,000 bonus); Derrik Gibson (2008 2nd-round pick), Ryan Dent (1st-round pick, 2007), Pedro Ciriaco (solid defender, should serve as insurance depth with Pawtucket), Nate Spears (versatile defender, patient hitter made major league debut with Boston in 2011)

With Adrian Gonzalez under contract to man first base at Fenway Park through 2018, there’s not a lot of room for upward mobility among the first basemen in the Red Sox system. If Gonzalez gets injured for any extended period of time, one of those players may get an opportunity, but the more likely scenario in that event would probably involve Boston calling up Will Middlebrooks to man third base and shifting Kevin Youkilis over to first base.

Because the position is blocked, there really isn’t a lot of quality depth in the organization. With that in mind, here’s a look at the first-base prospects in the Boston system.

Lars Anderson (Age: 24)

How Acquired: Drafted in the 18th round in 2006 ($825,00 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .265 AVG/.369 OBP/.422 SLG with 14 home runs for Triple-A Pawtucket
2012 Status: On the 40-man roster, 2 options remaining. Likely headed back to Pawtucket.
Scouting Report: Once considered the top prospect in the Red Sox system, Anderson’s stock has dropped considerably over the last two seasons. A tall left-handed hitter with a strong frame and a smooth swing, he has a good plate approach with nice patience and strike-zone recognition. But while he’s shown flashes of plus power, he hasn’t put enough loft on the ball to produce the extra-base power required to be a starting first baseman for a first-division team. Additionally, he needs to work on making stronger contact on breaking balls and hitting to all fields. Anderson also has below-average speed, so he’s not going to run out many grounders. An adequate defender who has made good strides in the field during his development, he projects as an adequate major league defender.
Projection: Up-and-down major-leaguer who makes occasional impact contributions
Ceiling: Starter for a small-market team
Floor: Triple-A first baseman

Reynaldo Rodriguez (26)

How Acquired: Contract acquired from Yuma of the independent Golden Baseball League (Oct. 2009)
2011 Stats: .286/.355/.526 with 18 home runs for High-A Salem and Double-A Portland
2012 Status: Minor league camp. Likely to start for Portland.
Scouting Report: While he’s been older for his levels, Rodriguez has been one of the most consistent hitters in the Red Sox system over the last two seasons. A wiry-framed first baseman from Colombia, he spent five years in the Yankees organization before he was released in late 2008. Following his release, he went on to earn MVP honors in the 2008-2009 Colombian Winter League, Rookie of the Year honors in the Golden Baseball League in 2009, and then signed with the Sox soon after the completion of the 2009 season. Athletic and agile, Rodriguez plays solid defense at first base, and is also capable of playing a decent left field. Offensively, he has a compact swing from the right side of the plate and is adept at turning on inside fastballs and driving the ball with authority. He needs to work on being more selective overall, and even if he’s able to do that he very well may struggle against advanced breaking stuff at the Triple-A and major league levels.
Projection: Up-and-down bench player for a second-division team
Ceiling: Impact major league bench player
Floor: Career Triple-A player

Travis Shaw (21)

How Acquired: Drafted in the 9th round in 2011 ($110,000 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .265/.372/.445 with 8 home runs for short-season Lowell and Low-A Greenville
2012 Status: Minor league camp. Could start with Greenville or Salem in 2012.
Scouting Report: The son of former major league pitcher Jeff Shaw, Travis Shaw has outstanding fundamentals but may not have the athletic skills to develop into a major league hitter and defensive player. On defense, he played mostly third base in college, but doesn’t project to have enough range and quickness to man the position as a professional. He’s likely slated to play primarily first base in the future, a position that he’s still learning but should have the skills to handle. He just may not have the bat speed or power to become an impact first baseman for a first-division team at the major league level. However, he does show an advanced approach, excellent plate discipline and the ability to drive mistake pitches out of the park. And that’s exactly what many scouts were saying about Kevin Youkilis 10 years ago.
Projection: Long-term organizational player
Ceiling: Reliable major league bench player
Floor: Double-A player

Mauro Gomez (27)

How Acquired: Minor league free agent (Feb. 2012)
2011 Stats: .304/.356/.522 with 24 home runs for Triple-A Gwinnett
2012 Status: Minor league camp. Should see time at 1B/DH with Pawtucket.
Scouting Report: Dominican first baseman spent seven solid-but-unspectacular seasons in the Texas system from 2003 to 2009, and then two above-average years in the Atlanta system in 2010-2011. Now 27, the fact that neither Texas nor Atlanta gave him even a cup-of-coffee in the major leagues doesn’t speak well for his projection. Originally invited to major league camp with Boston this spring, he was assigned to minor league camp before his arrival to the States, which was delayed due to visa issues. While he has a powerful bat, he strikes out a ton, and likely won’t fare well against major league pitching unless he overhauls his approach. Gomez has below-average speed and plays average defense.
Projection: Triple-A bat, insurance player
Ceiling: Bench player for small-market team
Floor: Early-season cut

Michael Almanzar (21)

How Acquired: International free agent (July 2007) ($1,500,000 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .199/.243/.275 with 4 home runs for Salem and Greenville
2012 Status: Minor league camp. Most likely headed to Salem in 2012.
Scouting Report: Signed as a highly-regarded bonus baby with limitless potential in 2007, Almanzar has proven to be a bust to this point in his career. His fundamentals have not developed, his performance has been poor, and most reports indicate that he has a sub-standard work ethic. But he’s just 21 and the impeccable raw tools are still there, capable of putting on a show of plus plus power in batting practice. On offense, he has poor habits at the plate and is still primarily a guess hitter after four seasons in the system. On defense, he has spent most of his time at third base, where he showed nice tools, none of which he’s been able to refine. While he doesn’t look comfortable at first base yet, he has the skills to be adequate at the position. With the right dedication, Almanzar could still turn his career around and develop into an impact player. Without the right dedication, he sets a bad example for other players in the system and thus could be on the chopping block. At this point, he’s a lot closer to the former than the latter.
Projection: A-Ball player
Ceiling: Major league starter
Floor: Spring training cut

Others to watch for: Boss Moanaroa (20-year-old Australian with impressive batting practice power), Jorge Padron (Cuban import given $350,000 bonus in 2010), Drew Hedman (2009 NCAA Division III Player of the Year), David Chester (2011 33rd round pick with massive frame), Jair Bogaerts (Xander Bogaerts’ twin brother)

Leading up to Opening Day, I plan to run a series of previews highlighting the depth at each position in the Red Sox farm system. Let’s start with the catchers, where Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Kelly Shoppach are poised to fill the two spots on the 25-man roster.

Here’s a look at the other top catchers in the system.

Ryan Lavarnway (Age: 24)

How Acquired: Drafted in the 6th round in 2008 ($325,00 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .290 AVG/.376 OBP/.563 SLG with 32 home runs for Double-A Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket
2012 Status: On the 40-man roster, 3 options remaining. Likely headed back to Pawtucket.
Scouting Report: Lavarnway has a high baseball IQ with a solid catcher's frame. He has average-to-slightly-above-average contact potential and possesses above-average plate discipline and power potential. Hitting from a slightly closed, crouched stance, he attacks mistake pitches, especially ones out and over the plate. The 24-year-old can drive the ball to all fields and uses his lower body well in his swing. However, he can overextend his arms, which leads to some struggles on the inside third.
Defensively, Lavarnway has rough overall catching skills with limited range, slow reactions, average blocking skills and average catch-and-release mechanics. However, he’s one of the hardest and smartest workers in the system, so improvements are quite possible. Some scouts project that he will always be well below-average defensively, while others opine that he could develop into an adequate major league backstop.
Projection: Starting DH and backup C
Ceiling: All-Star C due to offense, but still a tick below average defensively
Floor: Replacement level bench player, pinch hitter with negative defensive value

Blake Swihart (19)

How Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round in 2011 ($2,500,000 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .545 with 5 home runs and 19 stolen bases for Cleveland (NM) High School
2012 Status: Minor league camp. Should start with Greenville.
Scouting Report: Swihart is an athletic, switch-hitting catcher with awesome raw tools (raw being the key word). He has fluid swings from both sides of the plate, plus bat speed, and level mechanics. While he’s appeared in only two official games as a professional and it’s still really early in his development, he projects as a plus hitter for average with solid power and average speed. However, he’ll need to develop a professional approach, improve his pitch selection, and add some strength and bulk. He likely won’t show a ton of power early in his minor league career. On defense, Swihart has a plus arm but his skills are undeveloped behind the plate. It’s just too early to project if he will stick at catcher or move to another position like third base. He may have the bat to stick at another position. But again, he’s just 19 and his career could go in any number of directions at this stage.
Projection: Major league starter
Ceiling: Franchise player
Floor: Double-A catcher

Luis Exposito (25)

How Acquired: Drafted in the 31st round in 2005 ($150,00 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .242/.298/.367 with 8 home runs for Pawtucket
2012 Status: On the 40-man roster, 2 options remaining. Likely headed back to Pawtucket.
Scouting Report: Exposito is a big backstop with a strong, broad frame. Offensively, he's relaxed at the plate without much action before the pitch comes at him. He's got a long follow-through and a swing that generates a lot of lift on the ball. He doesn't strike out too much, but he can struggle with breaking pitches. He has above-average raw power, but that hasn’t translated into enough extra-base hits to this point. The 25-year-old needs to work on shortening his swing and laying off bad pitches if he’s to take his game to the next level. Behind the plate, Exposito has quality catcher's tools, including a strong arm and good instincts. However, he could still use some improvement with his game-calling ability and his throwing accuracy. He also has shown inconsistent ball-blocking skills and is still developing his skills in managing a pitching staff. He’s a very personable and popular teammate in the clubhouse.
Projection: Up-and-down major-leaguer capable of making occasional big league contributions
Ceiling: Occasional starter for a second-tier club
Floor: Triple-A catcher

Christian Vazquez (21)

How Acquired: Drafted in the 9th round in 2008 ($80,000 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .283/.358/.505 SLG with 18 home runs for Low-A Greenville
2012 Status: Minor league camp. Should start for Salem.
Scouting Report: Vazquez is an excellent defensive catcher with a wide frame and impressive agility behind the plate. He shows plus arm strength but needs to develop a quicker release. He also can struggle blocking balls in the dirt. Still just 21, he’s proven to be very athletic and tough for a catcher. With the bat, Vazquez has shown signs of advancement, particularly in light of the fact that he has remained young for his level during his climb through the Red Sox system. He demonstrated excellent offensive development in 2011, posting a solid .283 batting average and showing above-average present power in his second year in Low-A. While he has below-average bat speed, Vazquez has the drive to become an adequate major league hitter. But he’s still a few years away and may very well be challenged by advanced pitching above the A-ball level.
Projection: Fringe major leaguer
Ceiling: Second-division starter
Floor: Double-A catcher

Dan Butler (25)

How Acquired: Undrafted free agent, 2009 ($10,00 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .241/.344/.402 SLG with 12 home runs for Pawtucket, Portland, and High-A Salem
2012 Status: Non-Roster Invitee. Likely slated to start for Portland.
Scouting Report: Butler is a smaller catcher with above-average all-around defensive skills, including a slightly above-average arm, a nice glove, quick footwork and solid game-calling ability. Offensively, Butler holds his hands really high with a slight open stance. He has a solid approach and works counts well. Overall, he has a very real chance of developing into a valuable major league backup catcher with some occasional pop off the bench.
Projection: Fringe major leaguer
Ceiling: Backup catcher
Floor: Triple-A catcher

Others to watch: Jordan Weems (2011 third-round pick), Adalberto Ibarra (Cuban import given $750,000 bonus in 2010), Max St. Pierre (31, in major league camp), Roberto Reyes (Lynn English grad with decent raw power) and Beau Bishop (signed out of a New Zealand fast-pitch softball league in February 2011)

Who will be the breakout prospects for the Red Sox in 2012?

That's a question that I've heard quite often lately. To me, "breakout prospect" can be defined in a few ways: You have players who break out from top-prospect status to elite blue-chip status, players who break into the top 100 prospects in all of baseball, and players who burst onto the scene from out of nowhere. Without currently having any surefire "blue chip" prospects in the organization, breakout potential may be the greatest strength of the Red Sox system right now, as there are several players in the system who could make a big leap in 2012 given the right development path.

Keep in mind, however, that I'm not projecting that every one these players will have such a breakout season -- I'm only saying that each of these players is capable of a breakout. The most likely scenario, as is the case with most years, is that a few of these players will have breakout seasons, others will follow a level development path, and others will take a step back.

That being said, here's a look at 10 breakout candidates in the Red Sox system for 2012.

POTENTIAL BLUE-CHIP BREAKOUTS

Xander Bogaerts
We covered Bogaerts' ascent to top-prospect status earlier this month. He's currently listed as a top-three prospect in the system and a top-100 prospect in all of baseball by most major publications. With the proper adjustments and improvements in A-Ball, Bogaerts could vault himself into elite-prospect status in 2012.

Likely to spend the season in Low-A Greenville and/or High-A Salem, the powerful 19-year-old shortstop from Aruba will need to continue refining his plate approach and make strides on defense. If he's able to do that and replicate his power numbers from 2011 over the course of the full season in 2012, he could be tagged as Boston's next franchise prospect.

(Read full post)

Happy New Year! Here’s a look at the top 10 stories to watch in the Red Sox minor-league system in 2012:

1. When will the next round of top prospects emerge as major-league ready?

In Will Middlebrooks, Ryan Lavarnway, Jose Iglesias and Alex Wilson, the Red Sox have a group of prospects that could be ready to step in and make an impact with the major-league club at some point in 2012. All four should make Boston intriguing to watch this March during the club's first spring training at JetBlue Park.

Middlebrooks is the top prospect of the bunch, but could be the furthest away. Look for the 23-year-old third baseman to get the call to the big club in August or September, but any injury to Kevin Youkilis could require an earlier promotion for the third baseman.

Boston's signing of Kelly Shoppach meant that Lavarnway will start 2012 in Triple-A Pawtucket, where he should see extended time behind the plate. While the Yale grad is essentially major-league ready offensively right now, it will be interesting to watch how the backstop's defensive skills improve over the course of 2012, and if and when he can force his way onto the major-league roster.

Iglesias is just the opposite, as his glove is more than major-league ready right now but his offensive approach still needs some seasoning. He's just 21, so it's far too early to write off the Cuban shortstop as an offensive liability. It's all a matter of how quickly he can develop offensively. This should be a key year in that development.

Wilson, the club's 2011 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, could make contributions to Boston's bullpen by mid-season. But given the club's lack of depth in the starting rotation, it wouldn't be surprising if the front office allows him more of a chance to develop as a starter in 2012. In that case, he could spend the entire minor-league season in the PawSox rotation, followed by a call-up to Boston in September.

2. Is Xander Bogaerts the next Hanley Ramirez or the next Michael Almanzar?

It’s unclear at this point, and the answer is undoubtedly that he's somewhere in between. This year should show whether the Aruban shortstop is closer to Ramirez, a former top Sox prospect and now a perennial MVP candidate, or Almanzar, a talented $1.5 million bonus baby who has fizzled out largely due to a substandard work ethic.

Bogaerts has the talent to develop into a middle-of-the-order bat at the major-league level. However, just like any other 19-year-old prospect, he will have to put in the work to develop his plate approach, specifically his pitch recognition and strike-zone judgment. By most accounts, he’s already shown impressive baseball IQ and advanced maturity, so signs point to Bogaerts being willing to put in the required work.

The key story to watch in 2012 may be how Bogaerts fares against more advanced pitching, especially pitchers with refined off-speed offerings. Fans may also want to keep an eye on him in the early spring, to see how much he’s physically matured during the offseason. If he continues to grow, he could end up moving to third base or right field down the line.

3. Who of Felix Doubront, Lars Anderson, Oscar Tejeda, Stolmy Pimentel and Drake Britton will bounce back to top-prospect status in 2012?

All five former top prospects failed to meet expectations in 2011, but all five have also flashed major-league skill sets during their minor-league careers. All five are on Boston’s 40-man roster, and the latter four could end up in the position that Doubront will face in 2012 -- being out of major-league options despite not being 100 percent major-league ready.

Doubront is likely to begin 2012 in Boston’s bullpen, but could challenge for a spot in the starting rotation depending on how the offseason plays out. If he’s not traded, Anderson is likely to be sent back for a third season in Pawtucket. Tejeda will seemingly spend his second year in Double-A Portland. Despite a late-season demotion to High-A Salem in 2011, Pimentel should be back with Portland in 2012. Britton is likely slated for a return engagement with Salem in 2012.

Returning these former top prospects to form will be a major challenge for the Red Sox development staff, making another exciting storyline for the 2012 season.

4. Will the new front office treat the farm system any differently?

OK, so the front office is not that new. But Ben Cherington has taken over as the new general manager, Mike Hazen has been promoted to assistant general manager, and Ben Crockett is now the new director of player development. There’s no guarantee they’ll do things the same way as they did when Theo Epstein was in charge.

The most fascinating point to watch will be how aggressively the new regime deals with player assignments and promotions. Some early telltale signs may be if players such as Alex Hassan, Anthony Ranaudo, Drake Britton, Matt Barnes, Henry Owens, Blake Swihart and Jackie Bradley are assigned to start the 2012 season.

5. Can Anthony Ranaudo emerge as a potential ace?

As many Sox fans know, Ranaudo was considered a sure-fire ace and the top pitcher in his draft class after he led LSU to a national championship in 2009. After struggling through his junior season, he slipped to Boston in the supplemental first round of the 2010 draft. In his professional debut in 2011, the 6-foot-7 right-hander cruised through 10 starts with Greenville of the Low-A South Atlantic League, but was fairly mediocre performance-wise after a June 1 promotion to Salem.

Regardless of the stats, the 22-year-old indeed flashed ace potential in 2011, but will need to continue to make refinements in order to reach that ceiling. In 2012, look for whether Ranaudo can add sitting velocity to his 91-93-mph fastball, make slight improvements to the command of his curveball, gain confidence in his changeup, and improve his stamina and mound presence. He is likely to spend the majority of 2012 working on those aspects of his game with Portland.

6. How will the 2011 draftees fare in their first full professional season?

I’ll be keeping a particular eye on Barnes and Bradley in 2012, and I expect both players to post solid performances, whether with Greenville or Salem. With respect to Boston’s other top picks, Swihart and Owens, the key will be whether at the age of 19 they’re able to break camp with Greenville and hold their own in Low-A for a full season. A handful of other 2011 draftees will be fun to track in 2012, including outfielder Williams Jerez, catcher Jordan Weems, right-hander Noe Ramirez, infielder Mookie Betts and left-hander Cody Kukuk.

7. Who’s the best outfield prospect in the system?

I still consider Ryan Kalish a “prospect,” but he’s now slated to be out until May or June, and that could mean that he takes until July to get back to full speed. That also means he’ll have missed a lot of vital development time. He has the tools to become an everyday major-league outfielder for a first-division team, but he’ll need to get back on the field and re-prove himself in 2012.

Beyond Kalish, Bryce Brentz and Brandon Jacobs are two high-ceiling prospects who had excellent performances in 2011. Brentz, a former college First Team All-American, hit .306/.365/.574 with 30 home runs between stops in Greenville and Salem. Jacobs hit .303/.376/.505 with 17 home runs and 30 stolen bases for Greenville. Both have the potential to take the leap to elite prospect status in 2012.


8. Will Sean Coyle or Garin Cecchini take the next step in 2012?


Infielders Coyle and Cecchini were roommates when they played for the Team USA prep team in 2009, were selected in back-to-back rounds by Boston in 2010 and were given nearly identical signing bonuses. Coyle, a 19-year-old second baseman, spent 2011 with Greenville, hitting .247/.362/.464 with 14 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Cecchini, a 20-year-old third baseman, spent the season one level lower with short-season Lowell, hitting .298/.398/.500 in 32 games before his season was cut short after being hit in the wrist with a pitch.

Both have shown the ability to be impact major-league starters, but both are a few years away. Coyle still needs development in his plate approach, particularly his pitch recognition, to improve his plate coverage and cut down on the strikeouts. Cecchini needs to stay on the field for a full season. His glove is also behind his bat, but the tools are there for him to round into a decent defender.

9. How will the new CBA change the landscape of the draft and international free agency?


Remember in recent years how the best players in the draft could often slide down the first round or even into much later rounds due to signability concerns, leaving big-market clubs like the Red Sox and Yankees free to snatch up all the amateur talent they could pay for? Those days might be over. The new draft structure, which all but institutes a hard slotting system for signing draft picks, will put the emphasis on scouting rather than dollars. Simply put, the best players should now go at the top of the draft, or it’s highly unlikely they’ll get the bonuses they’re looking for in later rounds. This means that we may see a lot more raw prep players heading off to college in the hopes of getting a bigger payday in two-three years. It could also mean that we see a weaker draft pool for the next few years, with an emphasis on more relatively proven college talent ramping up over that time frame.

There will be similar limits on bonus spending on international amateur free agents, and an international draft may even be instituted. The details have yet to emerge in that area, and may still be under discussion when the CBA is actually executed and released in the coming weeks.


10. Will injuries have a major effect on the Sox system in 2012?

Every year, a handful of pitchers in the system go down with elbow injuries that ultimately require Tommy John surgery, which has a long recovery period. You just have to cross your fingers that your best pitching prospects are not among that group. That’s especially the case in 2012, as there are only five or six pitchers among the club’s top 20 prospects. As such, the front office will take every step imaginable to ensure that Ranaudo, Barnes, Doubront, Wilson, Britton, Pimentel and Owens remain healthy this season.

Among the players coming off of 2011 injuries are Middlebrooks (sprained left thumb), Kalish (shoulder strain), Rich Hill (June 2011 Tommy John surgery), J.C. Linares (torn ankle ligaments) and Cecchini (broken wrist). Additionally, right-hander Junichi Tazawa will look to continue his return from April 2010 Tommy John surgery, and outfielder Ryan Westmoreland will look to get back on the field after undergoing surgery in March 2010 to remove a cavernous malformation on his brain stem.

Look for Boston to make three or four roster moves on Friday to protect players from selection by other teams in the 2011 Rule 5 Draft.

Eligible players must be added to their teams’ respective 40-man rosters by close-of-business on Nov. 18 in order to be protected from selection in the Rule 5 Draft, which is scheduled to take place on Dec. 8, the final day of the winter meetings. The following players in the Red Sox system will be eligible to be selected if they are not added to the 40-man roster by close-of-business on Friday:

Michael Almanzar, Anatanaer Batista, Ronald Bermudez, Drake Britton, Cesar Cabral, Yeiper Castillo, Miguel Celestino, Caleb Clay, Mitch Dening, Ryan Dent, Brandon Duckworth, Justin Erasmus, Ruben Flores, Joantoni Garcia, Seth Garrison, Zach Gentile, Miguel Gonzalez, Charlie Haeger, Jon Hee, Mitch Herold, Jennel Hudson, Brock Huntzinger, Jeremy Kehrt, Matt Kramer, Will Latimer, Michael Lee, Che-Hsuan Lin, David Mailman, Leandro Marin, Will Middlebrooks, Daniel Nava, Dennis Neuman, Michael Olmsted, Josue Peley, Tony Pena, Wilfred Pichardo, Eammon Portice, Ryan Pressly, Roberto Ramos, Manny Rivera, Reynaldo Rodriguez, Charle Rosario, Pete Ruiz, Nate Spears, Matt Spring, and Tony Thomas.

Boston’s 40-man roster presently has 35 players on it, leaving five open roster spots. It’s expected that three or four players will be added on Nov. 18. The primary candidates are third baseman Will Middlebrooks, outfielder Che-Hsuan Lin, and pitchers Drake Britton and Cesar Cabral. Middlebrooks and Lin each ended the 2011 season with Triple-A Pawtucket, while Cabral ended 2011 with Double-A Portland and Britton concluded the campaign with High-A Salem.

Middlebrooks, 23, spent time with both Portland and Pawtucket in 2011, posting a line of .285/.328/.506 with 23 home runs. He also saw time with Scottsdale of the Arizona Fall League recently, and was batting .250 with four home runs and 11 RBIs in 56 at-bats before injuring his thumb in pursuit of a foul ball, ending his stint in the AFL. The Red Sox will undoubtedly add the third baseman to the 40-man roster to protect him from Rule 5 selection next month. Now considered the top prospect in the system, look for Middlebrooks to spend most of 2012 with the PawSox, barring a need to serve as an injury-fill in, with the hopes of joining the club as a late-season roster addition. He’s a candidate to take over the hot corner full time for Boston as early as 2013.

Lin will be given a long look with the big club in spring training. While he doesn’t project as a starter for a first division club at this point, he’s a solid bet to develop into an above-average fourth or fifth outfielder for a contending team, largely due to his outstanding defensive skills, above-average speed, and impressive plate discipline. He’s also capable of playing all three outfield positions. In stops at Portland and Pawtucket in 2011, the Taiwanese 23-year-old hit .245/.340/.305 in 466 at-bats, stealing 28 bases in the process. Most recently, Lin impressed scouts in the 2011 Taiwan All-Star Series, where he led the Chinese Taipei national team in hitting with a .417 batting average. It’s more-likely than not that the Red Sox will add him to the 40-man roster on Friday. He’ll then likely begin the 2012 campaign as the starting center fielder or right fielder for the PawSox.

By all accounts, Britton had a horrific season in 2011, but he’s exactly the type of player that other teams covet in the Rule 5 Draft, meaning he’s likely to be added to Boston’s 40-man roster on Friday. The 22-year-old left-hander throws a 92-95 mph fastball, a plus mid-70s curveball, and a developing low-80s change-up, all from a smooth, efficient delivery. He struggled mightily with control in confidence in 2011, ultimately going 1-12 with a 6.91 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP for Salem. Regardless of his poor results in 2011, most scouts still project Britton as a future major leaguer, perhaps even a middle-of-the-rotation starter or a high-leverage lefty reliever. If there’s one type of player that is an easy target for the Rule 5 Draft, it’s a young left-handed pitcher with major league stuff. While it’s likely he’s added to Boston’s 40-man roster on Friday, it’s also likely that he’s slated for a return engagement with Salem to start the 2012 season.

Cabral, a 22-year-old lefty out of the Dominican Republic, was selected by Tampa Bay in the 2010 Rule 5 Draft, and almost stuck with the Rays before he was returned to the Red Sox at the end of spring training (not before he was claimed off waivers by Toronto and then re-claimed by Tampa Bay). He posted a 2.95 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and struck out 70 batters in 55 innings between stops in Salem and Portland in 2011. He’s currently pitching for Aguilas in the Dominican Winter League, putting up a 1.59 ERA in 5.2 innings. If left unprotected this offseason, he would almost surely be selected in December’s Rule 5 Draft, and would have a very good chance of sticking, and even contributing, with his selecting club in 2012. If he’s protected, he would likely begin the 2012 season in Pawtucket’s bullpen with an opportunity for a mid-to-late season promotion to Boston.

Two other outside possibilities for protection are outfielder Daniel Nava and Colombian first baseman Reynaldo Rodriguez. Nava, who helped the injury-riddled Red Sox in 2010, spent the entire 2011 season with Pawtucket, hitting .268/.372/.406 with 10 home runs. He cleared waivers in May, meaning Boston will likely take its chances and leave the outfielder unprotected this offseason. Rodriguez hit .286/.355/.526 with 18 home runs for Salem and Portland in 2011. He will turn 26 in February having not played a game above Double-A, but he’s a later developer with some projectability as a major league bench player. He has an outside shot to be protected on Friday.

Other than the six players discussed above, it seems unlikely that any other players in the Red Sox system will be protected this week, but you never know, as the Sox have pulled a few surprises in past offseasons. Potentially unprotected Red Sox players who other teams may be willing to take a flyer on in next month’s Rule 5 Draft include pitchers Caleb Clay, Miguel Celestino, Brock Huntzinger, Michael Olmsted, Ryan Pressly, and Manny Rivera.

With Theo Epstein on the cusp of departing the Red Sox to join the Chicago Cubs organization, here’s a look at the best and worst draft picks of the Epstein era.

Best high-round picks (first, supplemental, or second round)

1. Dustin Pedroia -- Boston took the gritty second baseman out of Arizona State in the second round (64th overall) of the 2004 draft. He cruised through the minors and has since won American League Rookie of the Year and MVP honors, and is a three-time AL All-Star.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury -- The Red Sox selected Ellsbury out of Oregon State in the first round (23rd overall) in 2005. The 28-year-old outfielder is coming off of an MVP-caliber season in 2011. He could easily be listed at No. 1, but we’ll give Pedroia the nod as the best pick since he was a second-rounder.

3. Clay Buchholz -- Buchholz was snagged out of Angelina Junior College in the supplemental first round (42nd overall) in 2005. The right-hander dominated the minors and has gone 35-24 with a 3.64 ERA in 78 games with Boston.

4. Daniel Bard -- Boston picked Bard out of North Carolina in the first round (28th overall) of the 2006 draft. Originally projected as a starter, Bard had a horrific first minor-league season (3-7, 7.08 ERA) and was converted to the bullpen the following season. While there have been a few hiccups here and there -- this past September included -- he’s been one of the best relievers in the American League since his arrival to the majors in 2009.

5. Justin Masterson -- Masterson was selected out of San Diego State in the second round (71st overall) in 2006. Boston later packaged the big right-hander in a trade with Cleveland for catcher Victor Martinez in 2009. In 2011, Masterson went 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA in 34 games with the Indians.

Other solid high-round picks: David Murphy (1st round, 2003), Matt Murton (supplemental, 2003), Jed Lowrie (supplemental, 2005), Nick Hagadone (supp., 2007), Casey Kelly (1st round, 2008), Reymond Fuentes (1st round, 2009), Alex Wilson (2nd round, 2009), Bryce Brentz (supp., 2010), Antony Ranaudo (supp., 2010), Matt Barnes (1st round, 2011)

Best mid-round picks (3rd–10th rounds)

1. Jonathan Papelbon -- The Red Sox selected Papelbon out of Mississippi State in the fourth round of the 2003 draft. He has posted 219 saves in his seven-year major-league career, already placing him at No. 37 on the all-time saves list.

2. Anthony Rizzo -- Boston picked up Rizzo in the sixth round in 2007 out of Stoneman Douglas High School in Florida. He was traded with Kelly and Fuentes to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez in December 2010. At just 22, Rizzo dominated Triple-A competition in 2011, putting up a .331/.404/.652 line with 26 home runs in 356 at-bats, but he struggled in a short major-league stint with San Diego.

3. Will Middlebrooks -- Middlebrooks was selected in the fifth round of the 2007 draft, coming out of Liberty-Eylau High School in Texas. The power-hitting third baseman is now considered the top prospect in the Red Sox system.

4. Ryan Kalish -- Epstein used his 2006 ninth-round pick to select Kalish out of Red Bank Catholic High School in New Jersey. In his six-year minor league career, Kalish has posted a .280/.367/.429 line, typically playing well above his age level. While his 2011 season was riddled with injuries, he still projects as an everyday outfielder at the major-league level.

5. Ryan Lavarnway -- The Red Sox drafted Lavarnway out of Yale in the sixth round of the 2008 draft. He has been the best hitter in the Sox system for three years running, putting up a minor-league career line of .284/.376/.521, showing remarkable plate discipline and power potential in the process. The 24-year-old backstop is slated for a permanent jump to the majors at some point in 2012.

Other solid mid-round picks: Cla Meredith (6th, 2004), Dustin Richardson (5th, 2006), Kyle Weiland (3rd, 2008), Ryan Westmoreland (5th, 2008), Tim Federowicz (7th, 2008), Christian Vasquez (9th, 2008), Jeremy Hazelbaker (4th, 2009), Brandon Jacobs (10th, 2009), Sean Coyle (3rd, 2010), Garin Cecchini (4th, 2010), Henry Ramos (5th, 2010), Cody Kukuk (7th, 2011)

Top late-round picks (11th–50th rounds)

1. Josh Reddick -- Selected in the 17th round of the 2006 draft, Reddick was the regular right fielder for the 2011 club and has a solid future as a third or fourth outfielder.

2. Drake Britton -- Boston picked up Britton, a lefty with a plus curveball and a mid-90s fastball, in the 23rd round in 2007. The 22-year-old had a poor season with High-A Salem in 2011, but still projects as a major league arm, whether it be a back-of-the-rotation starter or perhaps a high-leverage reliever.

3. Miles Head -- Head was drafted in the 26th round in 2009. He put up mediocre numbers in 2009 and 2010, but in 2011 the powerful first baseman hit .299/.372/.515 with 22 home runs in 495 at-bats between stops in Salem and Low-A Greenville.

4. Alex Hassan -- A Massachusetts native picked up in the 20th round in 2009 out of Duke, Hassan has shown an excellent plate approach at every level. In 2011, he hit .291/.404/.456 with 13 home runs for Double-A Portland. He likely projects as a fourth outfielder at the major league level.

5. Lars Anderson -- Once considered the top prospect in the organization, Anderson was drafted in the 18th round in 2006. While his stock has faded significantly in recent years, he still could have a future as a contributor at first base for a second-division club.

Other solid late-round picks: Luis Exposito (31st, 2005), Bubba Bell (39th, 2005), Kyle Stroup (50th, 2007), Dan Butler (undrafted free agent, 2008), Keith Couch (13th, 2010)

Worst draft picks

1. Jason Place -- Boston selected Place in the first round (27th overall) of the 2006 draft, and gave the prep outfielder a $1.3 million bonus, passing on players such as Joba Chamberlain, Chris Perez, Trevor Cahill and Zach Britton. Place went on to hit .230 over his minor-league career, never made it past Double-A and was released by the Red Sox in March 2011.

2. Mike Rozier -- After drafting Rozier in the 12th round in 2004, Boston gave him a $1.575 million bonus, one of the largest bonuses ever given out by the club to that point. The right-hander struggled with confidence and weight issues during his minor-league career, ultimately posting a 16-24 career record with a 5.23 ERA. He played in only one game above A-Ball during his career, and was released by the Red Sox in March 2009.

3. Jonathan Egan -- The Red Sox took Egan in the second round (57th overall) in 2005, and gave him a $625,000 bonus. He ran into some legal trouble early in his career, and after posting a .235 career batting average, the catcher was released in March 2008. He never played beyond Low-A Greenville.

4. Kris Johnson -- A left-hander out of Wichita State, Johnson was selected in the supplemental first round (39th overall) of the 2006 draft and given an $850,000 bonus. While he showed a few flashes of brilliance during his minor-league career, he was mostly mediocre and was released after putting up a 12.63 ERA in eight appearances with Pawtucket in 2011. Over his minor league career, Johnson was 28-49 with a 5.10 ERA.

5. Mickey Hall -- Boston selected Hall in the second round (54th overall) of the 2003 draft, passing on the likes of Andre Ethier, Scott Baker, Shawn Marcum and Drew Stubbs. The Sox traded Hall to Cleveland for Paul Byrd in 2008. He hit .234 over his minor league career, which ended following the 2009 season.

Other high-round picks that didn’t pan out: Abe Alvarez (2003, 2nd), Andrew Dobies (2004, 3rd), Craig Hansen (2005, 1st), Scott Blue (2005, 4th).

Other high-round picks that haven’t panned out (yet): Caleb Clay (2006, Suppl.), Ryan Dent (2007, Suppl.), Derrik Gibson (2008, 2nd), Peter Hissey (2008, 4th)

Draft picks who the Red Sox didn’t sign

1. Brandon Belt -- Boston drafted Belt as a prep pitcher in the 11th round in 2006, but failed to sign him. San Francisco then took him in the 5th round in 2009, and he has since gone on to become the top prospect in the Giants’ system as a first baseman. The 23-year-old made his major league debut in 2011.

2. Pedro Alvarez -- Alvarez headed to Vanderbilt after Boston was unable to sign him after selecting him in the 14th round in 2005. After three outstanding years with the Commodores, Pittsburgh took the third baseman with the second overall pick in 2008. While he hasn’t lived up to the expectations of a second overall pick to this point, he’s still only 24 and projects as an everyday third baseman over the long haul.

3. Yasmani Grandal -- Boston took Grandal, a Cuban catcher, in the 27th round in 2007, but was unable to sign him away from his commitment to the University of Miami. Cincinnati took him in the first round (12th overall) three seasons later. In two professional seasons, the backstop has hit .303/.401/.488 in the Reds’ system.

4. Matt LaPorta -- After the Red Sox failed to sign LaPorta after drafting him in the 14th round in 2006, the Brewers turned around and selected him in the first round (7th overall) the following season. While he’s had a mediocre major-league career to this point, he still has promise as an impact first baseman.

5. Hunter Morris -- Boston opted not to sign Morris because he changed his bonus demands after the Sox drafted him in the second round in 2007. He spent three years at Auburn, after which time Milwaukee picked him up in the fourth round of the 2010 draft. The first baseman has put up a .266/.303/.457 line in two seasons in the Brewers’ system.

Other draftees who didn’t sign with the Red Sox: Steve Pearce (10th, 2004), Jason Castro (43rd, 2005), Alex Meyer (20th, 2008), Sam Stafford (40th, 2008), Branden Kline (6th, 2009), Tyler Barnette (9th, 2010), Eric Jaffe (19th, 2010), Senquez Golson (8th, 2011)