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In an ideal world, prospects would follow a natural progression by advancing a level each year and assuming their rightful place on the big league club in a few years' time. But every season, a variety of circumstances conspire to keep a player at the same level he spent the previous year, be it a logjam at the position or additional developmental requirements for the player.

Whatever the case, repeating a level is far from an indictment of the player's future. This year, the list of players who began 2012 with the same affiliate they started with in 2011 comprises a pair of top prospects trying to permanently break through the glass ceiling in Pawtucket, a bundle of bonus babies, and several players on the 40-man roster. Here's a rundown of those players, and how they've fared so far this season.

Triple-A Pawtucket

Jose Iglesias, SS (Opening Day Age: 22; SoxProspects.com ranking: No. 5)
Iglesias, the slick-fielding Cuban defector, is hitting .267 with three extra-base hits and a .324 OBP. Last year, he hit .235 with just a .285 OBP. He spent a week with the big league club in May 2011 before earning a September call-up, and was briefly summoned to the majors when Kevin Youkilis went down earlier this month. The team seems comfortable with Iglesias in a pinch–his defense is more than ready for the majors, but the Red Sox are happy to let his development continue in Pawtucket.

Lars Anderson, 1B/LF (Age 24; SP No. 21)
Anderson, a former top prospect at first, has been working in the outfield to make himself more valuable in Boston. But until then, he continues to bide his time in Pawtucket, where he spent most of the previous two seasons before earning a September call-up each year. He was summoned to Boston in April, where he was utilized some in left field. Anderson is batting .255 with three home runs and an .811 OPS in 106 at-bats in Pawtucket this season, down slightly from last year, when he hit .265 with 14 homers.

Other notables
Second baseman Tony Thomas is batting .242/.292/.424 this year for the PawSox. ... Utility man Nate Spears, the perennial spring training darling, began the year with Pawtucket again before earning an early call-up to Boston. He's hitting .226 in 26 games for Pawtucket. ... Right-hander Brandon Duckworth, the eight-year major league veteran, has begun 2012 by going 5-0 with a 3.95 ERA in nine appearances (seven starts). ... Right-hander Tony Pena Jr., a former major league shortstop, posted a 3.56 ERA in 33 appearances (14 starts) last year, but has struggled to a 5.71 ERA in eight appearances (one start) this season.

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It has been obvious to Red Sox followers this season that the bullpen has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses, as Boston relievers’ 6.55 ERA entering this weekend was nearly half a run higher than that of any other team. However, help could soon be on the way. Earlier this week the club moved its 2011 minor league pitcher of the year, Alex Wilson, to the bullpen, setting him on a track to possibly help in the majors quite soon.

Until the move was actually made, the Red Sox gave no indication that such a transition was imminent. But hours before Wilson's scheduled start Tuesday for Triple-A Pawtucket, word came down that he was being replaced by veteran Brandon Duckworth. This led to natural questions about whether Wilson, the 14th-ranked prospect at SoxProspects.com, was injured. Those were quickly put to rest. Instead, hopes of a quick elevation to the big league club for the righty emerged.

“I was told [Monday] night,” Wilson said. “I sat down and [they] said they were going to make the switch. The front office came to the decision to go ahead and slide me back there, and [told me] not to look at it as a demotion, but as an opportunity. I’m going to take that and run with it.”

It is an opportunity that could yield quick results for the 25-year-old if the Red Sox bullpen continues to struggle. The organization made a similar switch with Junichi Tazawa in spring training, and he has been one of the better relievers in Boston since his promotion on April 18.

A reliever in his final season at Texas A&M after undergoing Tommy John surgery the year before, many scouts viewed Wilson's fastball-slider combination as tailor made for a bullpen role at the big league level.

“I’m lucky enough to have done it before, so I know what it’s going to be like coming into it,” Wilson said. “The biggest thing for me, it’s not the training, but the mindset of being ready every day. I’ve been used to having four days off, not having to worry about game action or anything like that. For me to be ready day in and day out will be the biggest adjustment.

“I’ve always been a guy that comes right at you -- fastball, slider, changeup if I need it -- kind of deal. I think it’ll play well into my game actually.”

Wilson made his first relief appearance on Tuesday to mixed results. While he struck out a batter in his inning of work, he also allowed an earned run on two hits. An adjustment period is to be expected as he settles into the role, but Wilson expressed confidence following the outing and had little negative to say about the experience.

“I felt great today,” the 6-foot-1 right-hander said. “I had no problem whatsoever. It’s always nice to start with a clean inning. I had the whole half inning -- I knew about it ahead of time. It was smooth sailing really.”

PawSox manager Arnie Beyeler echoed that sentiment, saying, “We talked [to him] earlier about his routine and he seemed to get up and wait, and do what he’s supposed to do. He didn’t get up early and throw down there forever. He just got up, went in, and did what he does.”

SoxProspects.com director of scouting Chris Mellen was in attendance at Pawtucket for the appearance and commented afterward that Wilson appeared to be rushing his delivery and generally looked a bit out of sync. As a result, he wasn't able to keep his fastball down and the pitch sat around 91-93 m.p.h., topping out at 94, similar velocity to what he showed as a starter. But Mellen believes that in short bursts the righty's fastball will be able to touch as high as 97 m.p.h. as he settles into the role.

“I thought he did a nice job of getting the ball down [the] further in the outing he went,” said Beyeler. “As he went on, his fastball got down in the zone much better. That’s where he’s going to have to be to have some success and that’s where he hasn't been consistently so far this season.”

In general, the Red Sox prefer to let pitching prospects work as starters for as long as possible to give them more opportunity to hone their craft and develop their pitches, so Wilson had started exclusively as a professional since signing as a second-round pick in 2009.

With a 3.05 ERA in 21 Double-A starts last season, followed by a solid four-game stint in Pawtucket in which he had 24 strikeouts in 21 innings, Wilson had handled the role well. This season with the PawSox, he had a 1.80 ERA up until a rough start on April 19 in which he allowed six earned runs at Syracuse. So rather than being based on performance, the move is likely a sign that the Red Sox are content with their other starting depth options at this time, and see this as an opportunity to improve one of their biggest areas of weakness at the big league level.

Since Wilson spent those years starting, there are still many nuances of relieving for him to adapt to, such as coming into games mid-inning and making back-to-back appearances. Beyeler said that there are no immediate plans to pitch Wilson in a back-to-back situation, but that will be worked into the mix before long.

“I’m sure I’ll get different kind of looks -- be brought in the middle of an inning,” Wilson said. “It’s just getting acclimated to that whole world. It’s totally different and it’s a different mindset. It’ll take some time to get used to, but hopefully we’ll make it quick.

“It’s just going to take a couple of outings to kind of get the feel back and really learn my body again for this kind of situation.”

The Red Sox can only hope Wilson is correct in that assessment of how long the transition will take. If true, it may not be long before he receives the call he's been waiting for since signing with the organization.

Matt Huegel is a senior editor and columnist for SoxProspects.com. Kevin Pereira contributed to this report.

It’s no secret the John Henry ownership group has had its share of hits and misses when it comes to long-term major league contracts, whether free-agent acquisitions or re-signing of homegrown Red Sox players to extended deals. The same has been true with high-profile signings in the amateur and international markets -- there have been some great acquisitions that have paid dividends for years, and others that didn’t live up to the hype. The current ownership group has given signings bonuses of $1 million or more to 25 different amateur or international players since December 2001, all of which are listed below by bonus amount. Decide for yourself, but it seems to me that the front office has had a better rate of success with “bonus babies” than it has with major league deals.

1. SS Jose Iglesias, $6,250,000 in September 2009. Currently playing for Triple-A Pawtucket, Iglesias has been tabbed as Boston’s shortstop of the future, and could take over the role as early as midseason. While his defense is remarkable, questions still remain as to whether he can be better than a .235 hitter at the major league level.

2. RHP Casey Kelly, $3,000,000 in July 2008. Kelly impressed in two seasons as a pitcher in the Red Sox system and was sent to San Diego in the Adrian Gonzalez deal. Through two starts with Triple-A Tucson this year, Kelly has posted a 2.25 ERA and a 14/0 K/BB ratio in 12 innings, but he’s currently on the disabled list. He projects as a middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Padres.

3. RHP Anthony Ranaudo, $2,550,000 in August 2010. Ranaudo went 9-6 with a 3.97 ERA for High-A Salem and Low-A Greenville in 2011. His 2012 debut has been delayed due to a groin strain, and he’s currently in extended spring training with the hopes of joining Double-A Portland in mid-May. Ranaudo projects as a starter for a first-division team.

4. C Blake Swihart, $2,500,000 in August 2011. One of Boston’s first round picks from the 2011 draft, Swihart has lots of raw potential. He’s presently catching for Greenville, hitting .214/.297/.339.

5. RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka, $2,000,000 in December 2006. The signing bonus was just a pittance of the money the front office shelled out to sign Matsuzaka, which also included a $52 million major league deal and a $51.1 million posting fee. The 31-year-old right-hander started a rehab assignment with Salem on April 23, and is slated to re-join the big club within a month.

6. OF Ryan Westmoreland, $2,000,000 in August 2008. Westmoreland was considered one of the top prospects in the system when a cavernous malformation was discovered on his brain stem in March 2010. He’s been rehabbing from the surgery for the last two years, and is currently in extended spring training. He may be able to get back into game action by season’s end.

7. SS Jose Vinicio, $1,950,000 in July 2009. Signed on his 16th birthday, Vinicio is still just 18 and shows lots of promise, particularly if he can add some size and strength. He’s currently hitting .256/.360/.419 for Greenville.

8. RHP Junichi Tazawa, $1,800,000 in December 2008. Tazawa has impressed in 2 appearances with Boston and 4 appearances with Pawtucket so far this year. He profiles as a reliable middle-inning reliever, and could possibly develop into a late-inning setup man.

9. LHP Mike Rozier, $1,575,000 in August 2004. Boston gave Rozier one of the club’s largest bonuses ever at the time to sign him away from his football scholarship to North Carolina. He struggled with weight issues early in his career and his fastball inexplicably dropped from low 90s to low 80s over his tenure in the Red Sox system. He posted a career 5.23 ERA and was released in March 2009.

10. RHP Daniel Bard, $1,550,000 in August 2006. Though he struggled in his first year in the minors, Bard developed into an elite setup man. He still has the potential to develop into a very good starter or elite closer. Put this one solidly in the win column for the front office.

11. RHP Henry Owens, $1,550,000 in August 2011. A supplemental first round pick in 2011, Owens is now in Greenville’s starting rotation at the age of 19. The 6-foot-7 lefty has been able to miss a lot of bats in the very early stages of his career, but he needs to work on improving his stamina.

12. OF David Murphy, $1,525,000 in June 2003. A former first-round pick, Murphy was shipped to Texas as part of the infamous Eric Gagne deal. He’s been a solid and reliable 3rd/4th outfielder for the Rangers since 2007.

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The 19th overall pick in the 2011 draft, right-handed pitcher Matt Barnes is on the precipice of making his professional debut with the Greenville Drive on Easter Sunday. A native of Bethel, Conn., Barnes is already considered a top-10 prospect in the Red Sox system, and one who projects as a middle-of-the-rotation starter at the major league level. Starting as a tee-baller in a small New England town, he has had an interesting road to get to the professional ranks.

“I started baseball at a young age, five or six – I played tee-ball, little league, middle school, high school, the whole nine yards,” said Barnes. “I played soccer when I was really young too, and I attempted freshman football, but it wasn’t really my thing. My second love for a sport is basketball; I played that for seven or eight years through to varsity.”

After a very successful prep career in which he won All-Division, All-Conference and All-State honors as a senior for Bethel High School, Barnes was not drafted. He opted to play ball at the University of Connecticut, a team that was not considered a top-tier program at the time, but was indeed heading in that direction.

“I went into my freshman year at UConn with a lot of other great players. I started off as a midweek starter for them, and I would relieve on the weekends,” said Barnes, who went 5-3 with a 5.43 ERA in his freshman campaign.

In his sophomore season, Barnes became a weekend starter, posting an 8-3 record with a 3.92 ERA. He became the Friday starter in his junior season, going 11-5 with a 1.93 ERA and 117 strikeouts in 121 innings. He attributes a lot of his success to his Huskies teammates.

“We had a ton of talent,” said the right-hander. “When you look back, we had three first-rounders, a second rounder, and another six guys drafted between Rounds 10 and 20 over a two-year period.”

Among those players were George Springer, an outfielder selected 11th overall by Houston in 2011; Nick Ahmed, a shortstop drafted by Atlanta in the second round in 2011; and third baseman Mike Olt, who was picked 49th overall by Texas in 2010. Like Barnes, Springer and Olt grew up in Connecticut, while Ahmed comes from East Longmeadow, Mass., just minutes over the Connecticut border.

“I credit Coach [Jim] Penders and the coaching staff there for doing a good job of keeping the guys in state,” said Barnes. “Despite what many people think, people in the Northeast can play baseball. It’s just a little harder dealing with the weather and things of that nature. Keeping the in-state players at UConn really just kind of jumped us up to the next level.”

Early in his college career, Barnes and his teammates began garnering the attention of professional scouts.

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While pitching in the Red Sox system is thin in terms of elite arms, there are several pitchers in the organization that could develop into major league contributors. Nearly all of the best pitching prospects in the system right now are minor league starters, but many of those starters project as bullpen arms over the long term. And while the major league club has a handful of arms locked up to long-term deals, there is plenty of room for these prospects to crack the big-league rotation or bullpen in the foreseeable future.

Here’s a breakdown of the top pitching prospects in the Red Sox minor league system, separated as projected starters and projected relievers.

PROJECTED STARTERS

Anthony Ranaudo (Age: 22)

How acquired: Drafted in the supplemental 1st round in 2010 ($2,550,000 signing bonus)
2011 stats: 9-6, 3.97 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 117 strikeouts/46 walks in 127 innings with High-A Salem and Low-A Greenville
2012 status: Minor league camp. Headed to Double-A Portland, possibly as the opening day starter.
Scouting report: Ranaudo was considered the top pitcher in his draft class and the second-best overall draft prospect heading into the 2010 season after going 12-3 with a 3.04 ERA and striking out 159 batters in 124.1 innings in 2009, on the way to leading LSU to a national championship. He fell to the Red Sox in the draft after a poor 2010 season, which was hampered by confidence issues and arm problems. He has a highly-projectable arm with the frame to withstand the rigors of starting at the major league level. Throwing from a high 3/4 arm slot, his fastball currently sits at 91-93 mph and tops out at 95 mph. He should add more sitting velocity as he fills out his frame. He has average-to-better command, but he can tire early in outings, leading his shoulder to fly open and resulting in reduced command in spells. Ranaudo also mixes in a plus high-70s curveball that has the potential to be a future knee buckler at the major league level. His third pitch, a low-80s changeup, is a work in progress but has the potential to develop into an average major league pitch. In 2012, he should focus on honing his changeup, incorporating his lower body into his mechanics more, and building stamina deeper into games.
Projection: Third starter
Ceiling: Ace starter
Floor: Sixth starter/swingman

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In the outfield, the Red Sox have a handful of prospects that could develop into impact major leaguers, although none are sure bets at this stage.

The club also has some solid depth at the upper levels of the system, whether in the form of major-league veterans who will serve as big-league insurance or minor-league veterans who project as contributing major-league role players. There’s some room for upward advancement to the big club as well, as only Carl Crawford is signed to a long-term deal; Jacoby Ellsbury and Ryan Sweeney are under club control through 2013, and Cody Ross will be a free agent next offseason.

With that, here’s a look at the top outfield prospects in the Red Sox minor league system.

Ryan Kalish (Age: 23)

How acquired: Drafted in the ninth round in 2006 ($600,000 signing bonus)
2011 stats: .228 AVG/.291 OBP/.293 SLG with 0 home runs for Triple-A Pawtucket and short-season Lowell (rehab assignment) (92 at-bats total)
2012 status: On 40-man roster, 2 options remaining. Kalish will begin the season rehabbing from labrum surgery in extended spring training, and should rejoin Pawtucket in May or June.
Scouting report: Kalish is an excellent athlete with a solid build, good bat speed and lots of quickness. He plays the game at full tilt, which makes him a fan favorite, but has also contributed to injury. He makes average contact to all fields, has decent power, solid plate discipline and above-average speed. He also has a high baseball IQ with a tough demeanor and a high compete level. In the field, he has a reliable glove, excellent range, an average arm and average accuracy. He plays all three outfield positions well. Kalish tends to be a very popular player with coaches, teammates and the front office. He’s missed substantial time during his career with various injuries, and that lost development time could be detrimental to his major-league potential. That being said, he’s still just 23 and already has 53 big-league games under his belt. He’s slated to return to the field with Pawtucket in May or June this season and could contribute to the big club in September.
Projection: Versatile third/fourth outfielder for a first-division club
Ceiling: All-Star outfielder
Floor: Injury-derailed career

Bryce Brentz (23)

How acquired: Drafted in the supplemental first round in 2010 ($889,200 signing bonus)
2011 stats: .306/.365/.574 with 30 home runs for High-A Salem and Low-A Greenville
2012 status: Minor-league camp. Should break camp with Double-A Portland.
Scouting report: Brentz is a solid athlete with a well-developed power hitter’s body. After showing star potential in college, he struggled upon initial exposure to pro ball in 2010, but made nice adjustments in 2011. Offensively, he has plus bat speed and generates strong lift, but he’s ultra-aggressive at the plate and needs to improve his pitch selection. He’s gotten away with chasing hard breaking balls off the plate and taking advantage of mistake pitches in A-ball, but he will eventually be tested by Double-A pitching. Overall, he projects to hit for high power to all fields with a mediocre batting average. If he hones his approach, he could become a solid-average contact hitter. He has slightly below-average speed on the basepaths and range in the outfield. Defensively, he has a plus arm that should keep him in right field. He will need to improve his routes and judgment when charging balls.
Projection: Second-division third outfielder
Ceiling: All-Star outfielder
Floor: Fringe major leaguer

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Unlike first base, middle infield is a position of strength and depth in the Red Sox minor league system. I lump second baseman and shortstops into one collective installment, as the organization has often developed top-tier middle-infield prospects as shortstops, only converting them over to second base at the latest possible stages of development. And while there is certainly room for upward mobility at the shortstop position in the organization, Dustin Pedroia has second base locked up for the foreseeable future. With that in mind, here’s a look at the top middle-infield prospects in the Boston system.

SS Xander Bogaerts (Age: 19)

How Acquired: International free agent, August 2009 ($410,00 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .260 AVG/.324 OBP/.509 SLG with 16 home runs for Low-A Greenville
2012 Status: Minor league camp. On the bubble between Low-A Greenville and High-A Salem to start 2012.
Scouting Report: A 19-year-old top prospect out of Aruba, Bogaerts has an athletic and lean-but-powerful frame. He has shown a high baseball IQ with impressive maturity during his first two seasons in the Sox system, dominating the Dominican Summer League in 2010 and posting impressive power numbers for an 18-year-old in Low-A in 2011. He has a smooth, fluid swing with an excellent ability to generate lift and drive the ball to all fields. He is very strong with explosive hands, and the ball flies off his bat when he gets the sweet spot of the barrel on it. Bogaerts has the potential to develop into a middle-of-the-order, run-producing, home-run hitter. However, he presently has below-average pitch recognition and strike-zone judgment, can struggle with off-speed stuff, and tends to be overly aggressive at times. All of those should improve with experience and coaching, but that’s surely not a guarantee. On defense, Bogaerts has a slightly above-average arm, solid range, subpar footwork and an adequate glove. His fundamentals are a work-in-progress, but he’s still more advanced than most 19-year-olds. While he may be able to stick at shortstop long-term, it’s slightly more likely that he ends up at third base or left field, particularly if he fills out his frame into that of a major league home-run hitter.
Projection: Impact starting left fielder
Ceiling: Franchise third baseman
Floor: Double-A bust

SS Jose Iglesias (22)

How Acquired: International free agent, September 2009 ($6,000,00 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .235/.285/.269 with 1 home run for Triple-A Pawtucket
2012 Status: On 40-man roster, 2 options remaining. Likely will start 2012 with Pawtucket, but could get the call to Boston early-to-mid season
Scouting Report: Iglesias has elite defensive skills, highlighted by extremely quick hands, a soft glove, excellent instincts, above-average range, fluid movements and a plus arm. If he can get regular playing time, he will be a perennial Gold Glove shortstop. If he’s unable to cut it offensively, he also can play second base and third base adequately, and thus at a minimum could be a valuable utility player. On offense, Iglesias has plus bat speed, quick wrists, a compact swing and above-average speed. He doesn’t have much power behind his swing at this point, and doesn’t project to add a lot. Additionally, his approach is extremely impatient and he needs to continue to work at developing a more disciplined understanding of the strike zone. He is likely to end up as a No. 9 hitter, but with substantial improvement in plate approach, he has the tools to become a No. 2 hitter. Due to his advanced defensive skills, we may see Iglesias hit the majors before he’s absolutely ready on offense, meaning he’d need to develop on the job. In that case, it’s possible he could be a .230-ish hitter in his first few seasons, but with the right development he could end up as a .285 hitter.
Projection: Long-term regular at shortstop, perennial Gold Glove winner, below-average offensive player approaching average offensive contributions during his peak seasons
Ceiling: Franchise shortstop
Floor: Utility infielder capable of starting on occasion

2B Sean Coyle (20)

How Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd round in 2010 ($1,300,000 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .247/.362/.464 with 14 home runs for Greenville
2012 Status: Minor league camp. Likely to begin season with Salem.
Scouting Report: Coyle is a small-framed second baseman with a muscular build and a strong core. He has a compact swing with plus bat speed and a level path. Despite his smallish frame, Coyle has average-to-slightly-above-average power potential. When he gets the bat on the ball, he tends to drive it to the gaps, resulting in a lot of extra-base hits. A decent contact hitter who will draw a lot of walks, Coyle’s approach still needs some refinement to ensure he’s laying off bad pitches and not taking too many strikes. He has very good speed on the base paths. Defensively, Coyle is fundamentally sound in all respects, and projects to be a capable second baseman at the major league level.
Projection: Second-division starter
Ceiling: All-Star second baseman
Floor: Fringe major leaguer

2B Oscar Tejeda (22)

How Acquired: International free agent, July 2006 ($525,000 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .249/.297/.339 with 5 home runs for Double-A Portland
2012 Status: On 40-man roster, 2 options remaining. Likely slated to go back to Portland.
Scouting Report: Tejeda is a terrific athlete who is always brimming with confidence. On offense, he makes decent contact and has shown some flashes of the ability to develop into a .300 hitter. But he needs to develop a plan at the plate and tone down the aggressiveness of his approach. He has some holes in his swing, and advanced pitchers will continue to take advantage of that unless improvements are made. His speed and power tools are above-average but won’t carry him if he can’t get the bat on the ball more. Similarly, he has the tools on defense, but he’s still presently a below-average defender, as he lacks concentration and too often struggles with routine plays. He could end up in the outfield in the not-so-distant future. While Tejeda has a high overall ceiling given his tools, he’s still somewhat raw and difficult to project. On the one hand, he’s just 22 and has always been age-advanced, but on the other hand he’s already spent five years in the system and his year-to-year development has been quite inconsistent. He’s the type of player that might benefit from a change of scenery, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him included as part of a trade in 2012.
Projection: Second-division bench player
Ceiling: Second-division starter
Floor: Triple-A player with minimal success when given occasional major league opportunities

SS Jose Vinicio (18)

How Acquired: International free agent (July 2009) ($1,950,000 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .291/.337/.419 with 2 home runs for the rookie level GCL Red Sox
2012 Status: Minor league camp. Could start season with short-season Lowell or Greenville
Scouting Report: The Red Sox signed Vinicio out of the Dominican Republic on his 16th birthday in 2009, and he spent the last two seasons in the Gulf Coast League. Heading into this third professional season, he has outstanding present defensive tools with above-average range, quick hands, a solid-average arm, good techniques and impressive instincts. He should stick at shortstop over the long-term. On offense, he’s a switch hitter with a more fluid swing from the left side. Overall, Vinicio makes average contact, has above-average speed, has minimal power projection, and shows an adequate approach for his age and level. Now 18, Vinicio is still very small, and his offensive progression is strongly tied to his physical development. He needs to add a lot of bulk without overly limiting his range and speed.
Projection: Fringe major leaguer
Ceiling: Second-division starter, No. 9 hitter
Floor: A-ball player

Others to watch: Mookie Betts (2011 5th-round pick, $750,000 bonus); Derrik Gibson (2008 2nd-round pick), Ryan Dent (1st-round pick, 2007), Pedro Ciriaco (solid defender, should serve as insurance depth with Pawtucket), Nate Spears (versatile defender, patient hitter made major league debut with Boston in 2011)

With Adrian Gonzalez under contract to man first base at Fenway Park through 2018, there’s not a lot of room for upward mobility among the first basemen in the Red Sox system. If Gonzalez gets injured for any extended period of time, one of those players may get an opportunity, but the more likely scenario in that event would probably involve Boston calling up Will Middlebrooks to man third base and shifting Kevin Youkilis over to first base.

Because the position is blocked, there really isn’t a lot of quality depth in the organization. With that in mind, here’s a look at the first-base prospects in the Boston system.

Lars Anderson (Age: 24)

How Acquired: Drafted in the 18th round in 2006 ($825,00 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .265 AVG/.369 OBP/.422 SLG with 14 home runs for Triple-A Pawtucket
2012 Status: On the 40-man roster, 2 options remaining. Likely headed back to Pawtucket.
Scouting Report: Once considered the top prospect in the Red Sox system, Anderson’s stock has dropped considerably over the last two seasons. A tall left-handed hitter with a strong frame and a smooth swing, he has a good plate approach with nice patience and strike-zone recognition. But while he’s shown flashes of plus power, he hasn’t put enough loft on the ball to produce the extra-base power required to be a starting first baseman for a first-division team. Additionally, he needs to work on making stronger contact on breaking balls and hitting to all fields. Anderson also has below-average speed, so he’s not going to run out many grounders. An adequate defender who has made good strides in the field during his development, he projects as an adequate major league defender.
Projection: Up-and-down major-leaguer who makes occasional impact contributions
Ceiling: Starter for a small-market team
Floor: Triple-A first baseman

Reynaldo Rodriguez (26)

How Acquired: Contract acquired from Yuma of the independent Golden Baseball League (Oct. 2009)
2011 Stats: .286/.355/.526 with 18 home runs for High-A Salem and Double-A Portland
2012 Status: Minor league camp. Likely to start for Portland.
Scouting Report: While he’s been older for his levels, Rodriguez has been one of the most consistent hitters in the Red Sox system over the last two seasons. A wiry-framed first baseman from Colombia, he spent five years in the Yankees organization before he was released in late 2008. Following his release, he went on to earn MVP honors in the 2008-2009 Colombian Winter League, Rookie of the Year honors in the Golden Baseball League in 2009, and then signed with the Sox soon after the completion of the 2009 season. Athletic and agile, Rodriguez plays solid defense at first base, and is also capable of playing a decent left field. Offensively, he has a compact swing from the right side of the plate and is adept at turning on inside fastballs and driving the ball with authority. He needs to work on being more selective overall, and even if he’s able to do that he very well may struggle against advanced breaking stuff at the Triple-A and major league levels.
Projection: Up-and-down bench player for a second-division team
Ceiling: Impact major league bench player
Floor: Career Triple-A player

Travis Shaw (21)

How Acquired: Drafted in the 9th round in 2011 ($110,000 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .265/.372/.445 with 8 home runs for short-season Lowell and Low-A Greenville
2012 Status: Minor league camp. Could start with Greenville or Salem in 2012.
Scouting Report: The son of former major league pitcher Jeff Shaw, Travis Shaw has outstanding fundamentals but may not have the athletic skills to develop into a major league hitter and defensive player. On defense, he played mostly third base in college, but doesn’t project to have enough range and quickness to man the position as a professional. He’s likely slated to play primarily first base in the future, a position that he’s still learning but should have the skills to handle. He just may not have the bat speed or power to become an impact first baseman for a first-division team at the major league level. However, he does show an advanced approach, excellent plate discipline and the ability to drive mistake pitches out of the park. And that’s exactly what many scouts were saying about Kevin Youkilis 10 years ago.
Projection: Long-term organizational player
Ceiling: Reliable major league bench player
Floor: Double-A player

Mauro Gomez (27)

How Acquired: Minor league free agent (Feb. 2012)
2011 Stats: .304/.356/.522 with 24 home runs for Triple-A Gwinnett
2012 Status: Minor league camp. Should see time at 1B/DH with Pawtucket.
Scouting Report: Dominican first baseman spent seven solid-but-unspectacular seasons in the Texas system from 2003 to 2009, and then two above-average years in the Atlanta system in 2010-2011. Now 27, the fact that neither Texas nor Atlanta gave him even a cup-of-coffee in the major leagues doesn’t speak well for his projection. Originally invited to major league camp with Boston this spring, he was assigned to minor league camp before his arrival to the States, which was delayed due to visa issues. While he has a powerful bat, he strikes out a ton, and likely won’t fare well against major league pitching unless he overhauls his approach. Gomez has below-average speed and plays average defense.
Projection: Triple-A bat, insurance player
Ceiling: Bench player for small-market team
Floor: Early-season cut

Michael Almanzar (21)

How Acquired: International free agent (July 2007) ($1,500,000 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .199/.243/.275 with 4 home runs for Salem and Greenville
2012 Status: Minor league camp. Most likely headed to Salem in 2012.
Scouting Report: Signed as a highly-regarded bonus baby with limitless potential in 2007, Almanzar has proven to be a bust to this point in his career. His fundamentals have not developed, his performance has been poor, and most reports indicate that he has a sub-standard work ethic. But he’s just 21 and the impeccable raw tools are still there, capable of putting on a show of plus plus power in batting practice. On offense, he has poor habits at the plate and is still primarily a guess hitter after four seasons in the system. On defense, he has spent most of his time at third base, where he showed nice tools, none of which he’s been able to refine. While he doesn’t look comfortable at first base yet, he has the skills to be adequate at the position. With the right dedication, Almanzar could still turn his career around and develop into an impact player. Without the right dedication, he sets a bad example for other players in the system and thus could be on the chopping block. At this point, he’s a lot closer to the former than the latter.
Projection: A-Ball player
Ceiling: Major league starter
Floor: Spring training cut

Others to watch for: Boss Moanaroa (20-year-old Australian with impressive batting practice power), Jorge Padron (Cuban import given $350,000 bonus in 2010), Drew Hedman (2009 NCAA Division III Player of the Year), David Chester (2011 33rd round pick with massive frame), Jair Bogaerts (Xander Bogaerts’ twin brother)

Leading up to Opening Day, I plan to run a series of previews highlighting the depth at each position in the Red Sox farm system. Let’s start with the catchers, where Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Kelly Shoppach are poised to fill the two spots on the 25-man roster.

Here’s a look at the other top catchers in the system.

Ryan Lavarnway (Age: 24)

How Acquired: Drafted in the 6th round in 2008 ($325,00 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .290 AVG/.376 OBP/.563 SLG with 32 home runs for Double-A Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket
2012 Status: On the 40-man roster, 3 options remaining. Likely headed back to Pawtucket.
Scouting Report: Lavarnway has a high baseball IQ with a solid catcher's frame. He has average-to-slightly-above-average contact potential and possesses above-average plate discipline and power potential. Hitting from a slightly closed, crouched stance, he attacks mistake pitches, especially ones out and over the plate. The 24-year-old can drive the ball to all fields and uses his lower body well in his swing. However, he can overextend his arms, which leads to some struggles on the inside third.
Defensively, Lavarnway has rough overall catching skills with limited range, slow reactions, average blocking skills and average catch-and-release mechanics. However, he’s one of the hardest and smartest workers in the system, so improvements are quite possible. Some scouts project that he will always be well below-average defensively, while others opine that he could develop into an adequate major league backstop.
Projection: Starting DH and backup C
Ceiling: All-Star C due to offense, but still a tick below average defensively
Floor: Replacement level bench player, pinch hitter with negative defensive value

Blake Swihart (19)

How Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round in 2011 ($2,500,000 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .545 with 5 home runs and 19 stolen bases for Cleveland (NM) High School
2012 Status: Minor league camp. Should start with Greenville.
Scouting Report: Swihart is an athletic, switch-hitting catcher with awesome raw tools (raw being the key word). He has fluid swings from both sides of the plate, plus bat speed, and level mechanics. While he’s appeared in only two official games as a professional and it’s still really early in his development, he projects as a plus hitter for average with solid power and average speed. However, he’ll need to develop a professional approach, improve his pitch selection, and add some strength and bulk. He likely won’t show a ton of power early in his minor league career. On defense, Swihart has a plus arm but his skills are undeveloped behind the plate. It’s just too early to project if he will stick at catcher or move to another position like third base. He may have the bat to stick at another position. But again, he’s just 19 and his career could go in any number of directions at this stage.
Projection: Major league starter
Ceiling: Franchise player
Floor: Double-A catcher

Luis Exposito (25)

How Acquired: Drafted in the 31st round in 2005 ($150,00 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .242/.298/.367 with 8 home runs for Pawtucket
2012 Status: On the 40-man roster, 2 options remaining. Likely headed back to Pawtucket.
Scouting Report: Exposito is a big backstop with a strong, broad frame. Offensively, he's relaxed at the plate without much action before the pitch comes at him. He's got a long follow-through and a swing that generates a lot of lift on the ball. He doesn't strike out too much, but he can struggle with breaking pitches. He has above-average raw power, but that hasn’t translated into enough extra-base hits to this point. The 25-year-old needs to work on shortening his swing and laying off bad pitches if he’s to take his game to the next level. Behind the plate, Exposito has quality catcher's tools, including a strong arm and good instincts. However, he could still use some improvement with his game-calling ability and his throwing accuracy. He also has shown inconsistent ball-blocking skills and is still developing his skills in managing a pitching staff. He’s a very personable and popular teammate in the clubhouse.
Projection: Up-and-down major-leaguer capable of making occasional big league contributions
Ceiling: Occasional starter for a second-tier club
Floor: Triple-A catcher

Christian Vazquez (21)

How Acquired: Drafted in the 9th round in 2008 ($80,000 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .283/.358/.505 SLG with 18 home runs for Low-A Greenville
2012 Status: Minor league camp. Should start for Salem.
Scouting Report: Vazquez is an excellent defensive catcher with a wide frame and impressive agility behind the plate. He shows plus arm strength but needs to develop a quicker release. He also can struggle blocking balls in the dirt. Still just 21, he’s proven to be very athletic and tough for a catcher. With the bat, Vazquez has shown signs of advancement, particularly in light of the fact that he has remained young for his level during his climb through the Red Sox system. He demonstrated excellent offensive development in 2011, posting a solid .283 batting average and showing above-average present power in his second year in Low-A. While he has below-average bat speed, Vazquez has the drive to become an adequate major league hitter. But he’s still a few years away and may very well be challenged by advanced pitching above the A-ball level.
Projection: Fringe major leaguer
Ceiling: Second-division starter
Floor: Double-A catcher

Dan Butler (25)

How Acquired: Undrafted free agent, 2009 ($10,00 signing bonus)
2011 Stats: .241/.344/.402 SLG with 12 home runs for Pawtucket, Portland, and High-A Salem
2012 Status: Non-Roster Invitee. Likely slated to start for Portland.
Scouting Report: Butler is a smaller catcher with above-average all-around defensive skills, including a slightly above-average arm, a nice glove, quick footwork and solid game-calling ability. Offensively, Butler holds his hands really high with a slight open stance. He has a solid approach and works counts well. Overall, he has a very real chance of developing into a valuable major league backup catcher with some occasional pop off the bench.
Projection: Fringe major leaguer
Ceiling: Backup catcher
Floor: Triple-A catcher

Others to watch: Jordan Weems (2011 third-round pick), Adalberto Ibarra (Cuban import given $750,000 bonus in 2010), Max St. Pierre (31, in major league camp), Roberto Reyes (Lynn English grad with decent raw power) and Beau Bishop (signed out of a New Zealand fast-pitch softball league in February 2011)

Nineteen-year-old Aruban shortstop Xander Bogaerts has the highest potential of any prospect in the Red Sox minor league system. Period. That’s why it’s not surprising that he’s ranked as a top-three prospect in the organization by SoxProspects.com, Baseball America, MLB.com and minorleagueball.com, despite likely being a few years away from even getting a shot at the major leagues.

Bogaerts’ baseball career has been quite an interesting journey -- from learning the game in his grandmother’s backyard in Aruba, to signing a professional contract with the Red Sox in August 2009 on the same day that his twin brother, Jair, signed with the club, to vaulting to top-prospect status in Greenville, S.C., in 2011.

“I started playing baseball at the age of 4 in the backyard of my grandmother’s house,” Bogaerts said. “My uncle taught us the basics. In Aruba, there isn’t really high quality baseball like there is in the Dominican or in Venezuela, but we have talent. I played in the little leagues as a kid and realized that I was having more fun when I was playing the game than anything else.”

A projectable, naturally-gifted athlete with a lean-but-powerful frame and an unbridled passion for the game, Bogaerts began receiving significant interest from major league scouts at the age of 16.

“I got attention from a lot of other teams,” Bogaerts said, “but Boston wanted both my brother and I, so that's what made the decision easy for us. It’s been a great experience playing my whole life with Jair, and I was intrigued by the idea of playing professional ball with him.”

Former Red Sox scout Mike Lord and former director of international scouting Craig Shipley signed Bogaerts to a professional contract on Aug. 23, 2009, during the second month of the 2009-2010 international signing period. The contract came with a generous $410,000 signing bonus. On the same day, Boston signed Jair, a large-framed catcher, to a $180,000 bonus.

Bogaerts impressed early onlookers, first during a short stint at minor league spring training in late March 2010. He showed a smooth, fluid swing with strong hands, good separation and the ability to create lift on the ball to all fields. After spending only two weeks stateside, he returned to Aruba to finish high school, slightly delaying his professional debut. In June 2010, following graduation, Xander and Jair both were assigned to the Dominican Summer League.

In the DSL, Bogaerts posted an impressive .314/.396/.423 line, with 15 extra-base hits in 239 at-bats. In the process, he was named a DSL All-Star and took home the award for 2010 Red Sox Latin Program Player of the Year. Meanwhile, Jair struggled to impress on offense, hitting just .170 in 46 games, and while he showed some signs of promise on defense, his movements were a bit rigid for him to be considered a future major league backstop.

Bogaerts really hit the radar for those who scouted him during the 2010 Florida Fall Instructional League. According to SoxProspects.com director of scouting Chris Mellen, Bogaerts stuck out by demonstrating a high baseball IQ, impressive maturity and solid potential to become a middle-of-the-order, run-producing bat at the major league level. However, there were certainly developmental needs in the areas of pitch recognition, strike zone judgment and dealing with off-speed pitches. Additionally, Bogaerts’ defense still was raw, as would be expected for a player of his age and experience.

He continued to impress scouts during minor league spring training in 2011, flashing tremendous raw power and home run potential. When Bogaerts got the barrel of the bat on the ball, he really showed an elite ability to drive the ball with authority, particularly for an 18-year-old shortstop. He spent the early part of the 2011 season in extended spring training in Fort Myers, but earned a promotion to Low-A Greenville on June 9, 2011. In the process, he became the first player in the Boston system to go directly from the DSL to Greenville under the current ownership regime (skipping over both the rookie-level Gulf Coast League and short-season Lowell).

“Playing in Greenville, I saw a lot more off-speed pitches, a lot of breaking stuff and more velocity,” Bogaerts said. “In the DSL, I faced mostly pitchers who didn't have a lot of control. In Greenville, the pitchers had better control and better stuff.”

Meanwhile, Jair stayed back in the DSL in 2011 and was converted to first base. He started to come around offensively, hitting .288 /.387/.404 in 156 at-bats, but remained three levels behind his brother.

Despite the aggressive placement, Bogaerts thrived with the Drive, hitting .260/.325/.509 with 16 home runs in 265 at-bats. For sabermetricians, the .249 isolated power number really jumped off the page for such an age-advanced player. For scouts, the perfect sound of the ball coming off of Bogaerts’ bat and the distance of his home run shots were common notes in most scouting reports, typically leading to highly promising projections.

“Xander really impressed in 2011 by making adjustments at the plate and in the field during his first season in the States,” Red Sox director of player development Ben Crockett said. “He shows athleticism in everything he does and can really impact the baseball to all fields, something uncommon for a player of his age and development time. He continues to improve his overall approach at the plate while refining his defensive fundamentals at shortstop, both things that repetition will help ingrain.”

Other sources concur that Bogaerts made strides in his plate approach, but some scouts feel he will be pushed to improve his pitch recognition as he climbs the organizational ladder. As of now, he’s still overaggressive at the plate --– most of his strikeouts come as a result of chasing breaking balls and elevated fastballs. And given how much development he has in front of him, it's just as likely that he never makes it past Double-A as that he becomes a major league All-Star.

Scouts also rave about Bogaerts’ maturity and effort level. One source indicates that he regularly participated in a strict regimen of additional individual workouts on top of mandatory team workouts, including consistently staying late to run extra wind sprints in 100-degree weather during the dog days of August.

In terms of defense, he has demonstrated a slightly above-average arm and good hands, but his footwork is rough and he needs to slow down his game. Many scouts have projected that he could end up moving to left field or third base, especially if he fills out his frame a lot more. But both Bogaerts and Crockett see him sticking at shortstop for the foreseeable future.

“In terms of long-term projection, we have been impressed by the strides he's made at shortstop in a short period of time,” Crockett said. “We have no plans to move him.”

“I grew up playing shortstop and I’d like to continue playing shortstop in professional ball,” Bogaerts said. “But I would play anywhere as long as I'm in the lineup. Shortstop is a difficult position, but I think I get where I need to be with more training.”

Bogaerts has centered his training this offseason on his defense and continued conditioning, but he also got some great experience with the Netherlands national team, which took home the gold medal in the 2011 Baseball World Cup (Aruba is an autonomous territory of the Netherlands).

“I’ve been working out a lot in the gym this offseason, doing a lot of running and working to improve my defense,” Bogaerts said. “I've been in Aruba for most of the offseason because I played with the Dutch World Cup team -- the champion Dutch World Cup team.”

In 2012, Bogaerts hopes to incorporate more athleticism into his game while keeping his mind in the right place.

“I want to use my speed more in the coming season, in addition to improving my defense,” Bogaerts said. “Also, I have to always remember that the mental part of the game is very important. Playing this game, you're going to fail a lot. And you have to be able to deal with it.”

When spring training rolls around and the Sox take the field at JetBlue Park in the coming weeks, it will be intriguing to see how Bogaerts is maturing physically in order to project whether he’s indeed going to be able to stick at shortstop or whether he’ll outgrow the position. At the outset of the 2012 season, Bogaerts will be on the cusp for a promotion to High-A Salem, but it’s just as likely that he starts the season back with Greenville.

Either way, expect for the 19-year-old to spend all or most of the season in A-ball, with an eye toward a major league spring training invitation and an assignment to Double-A in 2013.

Happy New Year! Here’s a look at the top 10 stories to watch in the Red Sox minor-league system in 2012:

1. When will the next round of top prospects emerge as major-league ready?

In Will Middlebrooks, Ryan Lavarnway, Jose Iglesias and Alex Wilson, the Red Sox have a group of prospects that could be ready to step in and make an impact with the major-league club at some point in 2012. All four should make Boston intriguing to watch this March during the club's first spring training at JetBlue Park.

Middlebrooks is the top prospect of the bunch, but could be the furthest away. Look for the 23-year-old third baseman to get the call to the big club in August or September, but any injury to Kevin Youkilis could require an earlier promotion for the third baseman.

Boston's signing of Kelly Shoppach meant that Lavarnway will start 2012 in Triple-A Pawtucket, where he should see extended time behind the plate. While the Yale grad is essentially major-league ready offensively right now, it will be interesting to watch how the backstop's defensive skills improve over the course of 2012, and if and when he can force his way onto the major-league roster.

Iglesias is just the opposite, as his glove is more than major-league ready right now but his offensive approach still needs some seasoning. He's just 21, so it's far too early to write off the Cuban shortstop as an offensive liability. It's all a matter of how quickly he can develop offensively. This should be a key year in that development.

Wilson, the club's 2011 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, could make contributions to Boston's bullpen by mid-season. But given the club's lack of depth in the starting rotation, it wouldn't be surprising if the front office allows him more of a chance to develop as a starter in 2012. In that case, he could spend the entire minor-league season in the PawSox rotation, followed by a call-up to Boston in September.

2. Is Xander Bogaerts the next Hanley Ramirez or the next Michael Almanzar?

It’s unclear at this point, and the answer is undoubtedly that he's somewhere in between. This year should show whether the Aruban shortstop is closer to Ramirez, a former top Sox prospect and now a perennial MVP candidate, or Almanzar, a talented $1.5 million bonus baby who has fizzled out largely due to a substandard work ethic.

Bogaerts has the talent to develop into a middle-of-the-order bat at the major-league level. However, just like any other 19-year-old prospect, he will have to put in the work to develop his plate approach, specifically his pitch recognition and strike-zone judgment. By most accounts, he’s already shown impressive baseball IQ and advanced maturity, so signs point to Bogaerts being willing to put in the required work.

The key story to watch in 2012 may be how Bogaerts fares against more advanced pitching, especially pitchers with refined off-speed offerings. Fans may also want to keep an eye on him in the early spring, to see how much he’s physically matured during the offseason. If he continues to grow, he could end up moving to third base or right field down the line.

3. Who of Felix Doubront, Lars Anderson, Oscar Tejeda, Stolmy Pimentel and Drake Britton will bounce back to top-prospect status in 2012?

All five former top prospects failed to meet expectations in 2011, but all five have also flashed major-league skill sets during their minor-league careers. All five are on Boston’s 40-man roster, and the latter four could end up in the position that Doubront will face in 2012 -- being out of major-league options despite not being 100 percent major-league ready.

Doubront is likely to begin 2012 in Boston’s bullpen, but could challenge for a spot in the starting rotation depending on how the offseason plays out. If he’s not traded, Anderson is likely to be sent back for a third season in Pawtucket. Tejeda will seemingly spend his second year in Double-A Portland. Despite a late-season demotion to High-A Salem in 2011, Pimentel should be back with Portland in 2012. Britton is likely slated for a return engagement with Salem in 2012.

Returning these former top prospects to form will be a major challenge for the Red Sox development staff, making another exciting storyline for the 2012 season.

4. Will the new front office treat the farm system any differently?

OK, so the front office is not that new. But Ben Cherington has taken over as the new general manager, Mike Hazen has been promoted to assistant general manager, and Ben Crockett is now the new director of player development. There’s no guarantee they’ll do things the same way as they did when Theo Epstein was in charge.

The most fascinating point to watch will be how aggressively the new regime deals with player assignments and promotions. Some early telltale signs may be if players such as Alex Hassan, Anthony Ranaudo, Drake Britton, Matt Barnes, Henry Owens, Blake Swihart and Jackie Bradley are assigned to start the 2012 season.

5. Can Anthony Ranaudo emerge as a potential ace?

As many Sox fans know, Ranaudo was considered a sure-fire ace and the top pitcher in his draft class after he led LSU to a national championship in 2009. After struggling through his junior season, he slipped to Boston in the supplemental first round of the 2010 draft. In his professional debut in 2011, the 6-foot-7 right-hander cruised through 10 starts with Greenville of the Low-A South Atlantic League, but was fairly mediocre performance-wise after a June 1 promotion to Salem.

Regardless of the stats, the 22-year-old indeed flashed ace potential in 2011, but will need to continue to make refinements in order to reach that ceiling. In 2012, look for whether Ranaudo can add sitting velocity to his 91-93-mph fastball, make slight improvements to the command of his curveball, gain confidence in his changeup, and improve his stamina and mound presence. He is likely to spend the majority of 2012 working on those aspects of his game with Portland.

6. How will the 2011 draftees fare in their first full professional season?

I’ll be keeping a particular eye on Barnes and Bradley in 2012, and I expect both players to post solid performances, whether with Greenville or Salem. With respect to Boston’s other top picks, Swihart and Owens, the key will be whether at the age of 19 they’re able to break camp with Greenville and hold their own in Low-A for a full season. A handful of other 2011 draftees will be fun to track in 2012, including outfielder Williams Jerez, catcher Jordan Weems, right-hander Noe Ramirez, infielder Mookie Betts and left-hander Cody Kukuk.

7. Who’s the best outfield prospect in the system?

I still consider Ryan Kalish a “prospect,” but he’s now slated to be out until May or June, and that could mean that he takes until July to get back to full speed. That also means he’ll have missed a lot of vital development time. He has the tools to become an everyday major-league outfielder for a first-division team, but he’ll need to get back on the field and re-prove himself in 2012.

Beyond Kalish, Bryce Brentz and Brandon Jacobs are two high-ceiling prospects who had excellent performances in 2011. Brentz, a former college First Team All-American, hit .306/.365/.574 with 30 home runs between stops in Greenville and Salem. Jacobs hit .303/.376/.505 with 17 home runs and 30 stolen bases for Greenville. Both have the potential to take the leap to elite prospect status in 2012.


8. Will Sean Coyle or Garin Cecchini take the next step in 2012?


Infielders Coyle and Cecchini were roommates when they played for the Team USA prep team in 2009, were selected in back-to-back rounds by Boston in 2010 and were given nearly identical signing bonuses. Coyle, a 19-year-old second baseman, spent 2011 with Greenville, hitting .247/.362/.464 with 14 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Cecchini, a 20-year-old third baseman, spent the season one level lower with short-season Lowell, hitting .298/.398/.500 in 32 games before his season was cut short after being hit in the wrist with a pitch.

Both have shown the ability to be impact major-league starters, but both are a few years away. Coyle still needs development in his plate approach, particularly his pitch recognition, to improve his plate coverage and cut down on the strikeouts. Cecchini needs to stay on the field for a full season. His glove is also behind his bat, but the tools are there for him to round into a decent defender.

9. How will the new CBA change the landscape of the draft and international free agency?


Remember in recent years how the best players in the draft could often slide down the first round or even into much later rounds due to signability concerns, leaving big-market clubs like the Red Sox and Yankees free to snatch up all the amateur talent they could pay for? Those days might be over. The new draft structure, which all but institutes a hard slotting system for signing draft picks, will put the emphasis on scouting rather than dollars. Simply put, the best players should now go at the top of the draft, or it’s highly unlikely they’ll get the bonuses they’re looking for in later rounds. This means that we may see a lot more raw prep players heading off to college in the hopes of getting a bigger payday in two-three years. It could also mean that we see a weaker draft pool for the next few years, with an emphasis on more relatively proven college talent ramping up over that time frame.

There will be similar limits on bonus spending on international amateur free agents, and an international draft may even be instituted. The details have yet to emerge in that area, and may still be under discussion when the CBA is actually executed and released in the coming weeks.


10. Will injuries have a major effect on the Sox system in 2012?

Every year, a handful of pitchers in the system go down with elbow injuries that ultimately require Tommy John surgery, which has a long recovery period. You just have to cross your fingers that your best pitching prospects are not among that group. That’s especially the case in 2012, as there are only five or six pitchers among the club’s top 20 prospects. As such, the front office will take every step imaginable to ensure that Ranaudo, Barnes, Doubront, Wilson, Britton, Pimentel and Owens remain healthy this season.

Among the players coming off of 2011 injuries are Middlebrooks (sprained left thumb), Kalish (shoulder strain), Rich Hill (June 2011 Tommy John surgery), J.C. Linares (torn ankle ligaments) and Cecchini (broken wrist). Additionally, right-hander Junichi Tazawa will look to continue his return from April 2010 Tommy John surgery, and outfielder Ryan Westmoreland will look to get back on the field after undergoing surgery in March 2010 to remove a cavernous malformation on his brain stem.

Ever since Tommy John surgery cut short his promising debut season with the Lowell Spinners in 2007, Red Sox minor league reliever Caleb Clay has had nothing in common with the top prospects who populate the Arizona Fall League rosters every year except his status as a first-round draft pick.

But this fall, Clay has improbably become the Red Sox biggest success story out of the AFL. In 13 1/3 innings of work that span 10 appearances, Clay is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in the AFL, which is billed as a “prospect finishing school.” For Clay, the month spent playing alongside the best prospects in the game is more of a fresh start than anything else.

Not bad, considering that earlier this season, the 43rd overall pick in the 2006 draft considered calling it quits.

“I had some soul searching early in the year this year, and I was basically questioning if I wanted to continue my career,” Clay said of an April in which he was used just three times and posted a 13.50 ERA, allowing just one fewer run (seven) than he recorded outs.

“I made a decision that I wanted to make a change with my mentality and approach, everything about it really.”

A few weeks later, Clay said he tweaked his delivery so he was more over the top than before, and began putting more effort into his long-toss program.

“I know my numbers didn’t show that, but I felt better in the long run,” Clay said. “I think that’s just starting to show now.”

More than anything, Clay’s unsightly 7.47 ERA in 2011 for Double-A Portland was the result of his slow start and a handful of poor outings.

Clay opened the season by allowing five earned runs in two innings and held opponents off the board in just one of his first 10 starts. He carried a 10.47 ERA into the last week of May and strung together back-to-back scoreless outings for the first time on May 30 and June 2.

But a four-inning, six-run outing on June 18 and a one-inning, six-run outing on July 25 both raised his ERA significantly, and after he missed all of August with an injury, Clay finished the season by allowing five runs in the first inning of a spot start on the final day of the season.

Though he didn’t have much statistical success, Clay took a liking to life out of the bullpen.

“I know that I don’t have to go through the lineup two or three times in an outing,” he said. “I might not even show them all my pitches. Plus you can go out and blow it out for an inning. I think it’s a lot more fun and you get to see the game when it matters most -- toward the end.”

Catcher Dan Butler, who has been behind the plate for four of Clay’s nine outings this fall and briefly crossed paths with him in 2010 with High-A Salem, said Clay is “doing a good job going right after guys and commanding his fastball in the zone to help him get ahead early.”

Clay also credits having command of his fastball, which reportedly has touched 95 m.p.h. and is sitting in the low-90s, for his recent success, along with having at least two of his secondary pitches working to keep hitters off balance -- most notably his cutter.

According to Clay, having command of his pitches and keeping hitters guessing is especially important in a league like the AFL.

“Their plate discipline is pretty good and just about everyone out here has the ability to hit the ball out of here at any moment,” he said. “They’re just overall better hitters out here.”

In short, the AFL is a place for the best of the best, a league where players of Clay’s draft pedigree frequently end up, though his journey to the desert was different from many of his contemporaries.

“I was a first-round pick, but my first couple years I didn’t really pitch a lot,” Clay said. “That kind of knocked the whole prestige off being a bonus baby. I have taken a different path, and I think it’s helped me understand what kind of pitcher I am, and it’s helped me be more mentally tough.”

Butler excelling in his own backyard

For Butler, who climbed the ladder from Salem to Portland then finished the year at Triple-A Pawtucket, selection for the AFL was more than just another step in his improbable ascension to top-prospect status. After spending the entire season on the East Coast, Butler gets to play in his own backyard for the first time since college.

“It’s nice to be able to be home and play baseball in a league that you have grown up watching and hearing about,” said Butler, who grew up in nearby Phoenix. “On top of that, it is fun to have my friends and family be able to come out and see me play professionally when they otherwise wouldn’t.”

The fact that Butler would rank among the league leaders in batting with a .326 average if he had enough at-bats to qualify only makes the experience better. And after posting a .344 cumulative OBP during the regular season, Butler is getting on base at a .500 clip this fall, boosting his OPS to .919 through 14 games.

While the sample size is small -- Butler has shared catching duties with Angels prospect Hank Conger and Nationals prospect Derek Norris -- the undrafted free agent out of the University of Arizona has made good use of his time around some of the game’s future stars.

“There are really good players out here,” he said. “The pitchers down here are all top-level guys. I’ve just really enjoyed playing with and against these caliber guys.”

The competition level has helped Butler improve in all facets of his game. At the plate, Butler said he’s learning to control the strike zone and to hit off the fastball. Behind the plate, he’s working to involve and mix the pitchers’ offerings more effectively.

“I’ve learned how important it is to maintain a good mix of pitches in this league, as every hitter can hit a fastball,” he said.

But in a year full of highlights for Butler -- he swatted a winning home run in a major-league exhibition game in March and was thrust into a playoff race with Pawtucket in September -- just the chance to play on such a bright stage in front of his friends and family is special.

“I have enjoyed being out here among these caliber of players and doing so in front of my family and friends,” he said.

Fall and Winter League updates

Top prospect Will Middlebrooks is one of six other players who have seen time for Scottsdale this fall. The third baseman, who spent time with Portland and Pawtucket this season, was batting .250 with four home runs and 11 RBIs in 56 at-bats before injuring his thumb in pursuit of a foul ball.

Ryan Dent, an infielder who began playing center field for Portland in 2010, has played second base for the Scorpions and is batting .225 with 5 RBIs in 14 games. Outfielder Alex Hassan, who spent 2011 with Portland, is hitting .286 with a .420 OBP in 21 games. J.C. Linares, the Cuban outfielder who posted a .397/.423/.662 line for Peoria in last year’s AFL, has returned from an ankle injury that sidelined him since May to pick up two hits, including a home run, in four games for Scottsdale.

Other than Clay, Boston’s pitchers in Arizona haven’t found much success. Brock Huntzinger, who started 25 games for Portland this season, has a 5.09 ERA in 23 innings of work, while Jeremy Kehrt and Will Latimer have each posted an ERA approaching double digits this fall. Kehrt, a right-handed pitcher who split time between Portland and Pawtucket in 2011, has a 9.28 ERA in nine appearances, while Latimer, a left-handed pitcher who spent 2011 with Salem, has a 9.82 ERA in 14 2/3 innings of work.

Outside of the United States, Red Sox players are currently participating in five leagues.

Catcher Ryan Lavarnway, considered one of the top hitting prospects in the organization, returned to America from the Venezuelan Fall League because of an illness on Nov. 1, according to Gordon Edes. Before he got sick, Lavarnway hit .357 with a .979 OPS in 14 at-bats for Margarita. Ronald Bermudez, who spent time with Salem, Portland, and Pawtucket in 2011, is hitting .154/.185/.192 in 26 at-bats for Caracas. Franklin Morales, who was a stabilizing force in the Boston bullpen in the second half of the season, has two strikeouts and a walk in three innings for Caracas.

Right-handed pitcher Stolmy Pimentel, who plummeted down the prospect rankings after a subpar season with Portland and Salem, has a 4.91 ERA in 11 innings of work for Estreallas de Oriente of the Dominican Winter League. Pimentel held opponents hitless in two of his first three outings before allowing four runs on five hits in two innings on Nov. 2 against Licey.

Also in the Dominican Winter League, Portland left-hander Cesar Cabral has a 1.59 ERA in 5 2/3 innings of relief for Aguilas, while teammate Tony Pena Jr., a converted infielder who spent 2011 with Pawtucket, has a 1.54 ERA with nine strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings. He hasn’t allowed a run in his last 10 1/3 innings, a streak that spans eight outings.

Boss and Moko Moanaroa, both of whom spent 2011 in Lowell, are playing under Portland manager Kevin Boles for the Sydney Blue Sox of the Australian Baseball League. Boss, a first baseman, is batting .304 with a .820 OPS in 23 at-bats, while Moko, an outfielder, has a single in three at-bats.

Right-handed pitcher Miguel Gonzalez, who spent time with Salem, Portland, and Pawtucket in 2011, has a 3.60 ERA in five innings for Mazatlan of the Mexican Pacific League, while GCL outfielder Jesus Loya has a single to show for his eight at-bats with Hermosillo.

Player movement

Five Red Sox minor leaguers declared free agency in October: pitchers Randy Williams, Dennys Reyes and Hideki Okajima, infielder Drew Sutton and outfielder Joey Gathright.

Sixteen additional players were granted minor-league free agency on Nov. 2: pitchers Matt Fox, T.J. Hose, Blake Maxwell, Matt Rusch, Kyle Fernandes, Tommy Hottovy, Royce Ring and Greg Smith, catchers Jeff Howell and Mark Wagner, infielders Ryan Khoury, Hector Luna, Alex Valdez, Brent Dluglach and Vladimir Frias, and outfielder Brett Carroll.

Pitchers Pena, Brandon Duckworth and Charlie Haeger, infielder Nate Spears and catcher Matt Spring were all re-signed to minor-league deals.

With Theo Epstein on the cusp of departing the Red Sox to join the Chicago Cubs organization, here’s a look at the best and worst draft picks of the Epstein era.

Best high-round picks (first, supplemental, or second round)

1. Dustin Pedroia -- Boston took the gritty second baseman out of Arizona State in the second round (64th overall) of the 2004 draft. He cruised through the minors and has since won American League Rookie of the Year and MVP honors, and is a three-time AL All-Star.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury -- The Red Sox selected Ellsbury out of Oregon State in the first round (23rd overall) in 2005. The 28-year-old outfielder is coming off of an MVP-caliber season in 2011. He could easily be listed at No. 1, but we’ll give Pedroia the nod as the best pick since he was a second-rounder.

3. Clay Buchholz -- Buchholz was snagged out of Angelina Junior College in the supplemental first round (42nd overall) in 2005. The right-hander dominated the minors and has gone 35-24 with a 3.64 ERA in 78 games with Boston.

4. Daniel Bard -- Boston picked Bard out of North Carolina in the first round (28th overall) of the 2006 draft. Originally projected as a starter, Bard had a horrific first minor-league season (3-7, 7.08 ERA) and was converted to the bullpen the following season. While there have been a few hiccups here and there -- this past September included -- he’s been one of the best relievers in the American League since his arrival to the majors in 2009.

5. Justin Masterson -- Masterson was selected out of San Diego State in the second round (71st overall) in 2006. Boston later packaged the big right-hander in a trade with Cleveland for catcher Victor Martinez in 2009. In 2011, Masterson went 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA in 34 games with the Indians.

Other solid high-round picks: David Murphy (1st round, 2003), Matt Murton (supplemental, 2003), Jed Lowrie (supplemental, 2005), Nick Hagadone (supp., 2007), Casey Kelly (1st round, 2008), Reymond Fuentes (1st round, 2009), Alex Wilson (2nd round, 2009), Bryce Brentz (supp., 2010), Antony Ranaudo (supp., 2010), Matt Barnes (1st round, 2011)

Best mid-round picks (3rd–10th rounds)

1. Jonathan Papelbon -- The Red Sox selected Papelbon out of Mississippi State in the fourth round of the 2003 draft. He has posted 219 saves in his seven-year major-league career, already placing him at No. 37 on the all-time saves list.

2. Anthony Rizzo -- Boston picked up Rizzo in the sixth round in 2007 out of Stoneman Douglas High School in Florida. He was traded with Kelly and Fuentes to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez in December 2010. At just 22, Rizzo dominated Triple-A competition in 2011, putting up a .331/.404/.652 line with 26 home runs in 356 at-bats, but he struggled in a short major-league stint with San Diego.

3. Will Middlebrooks -- Middlebrooks was selected in the fifth round of the 2007 draft, coming out of Liberty-Eylau High School in Texas. The power-hitting third baseman is now considered the top prospect in the Red Sox system.

4. Ryan Kalish -- Epstein used his 2006 ninth-round pick to select Kalish out of Red Bank Catholic High School in New Jersey. In his six-year minor league career, Kalish has posted a .280/.367/.429 line, typically playing well above his age level. While his 2011 season was riddled with injuries, he still projects as an everyday outfielder at the major-league level.

5. Ryan Lavarnway -- The Red Sox drafted Lavarnway out of Yale in the sixth round of the 2008 draft. He has been the best hitter in the Sox system for three years running, putting up a minor-league career line of .284/.376/.521, showing remarkable plate discipline and power potential in the process. The 24-year-old backstop is slated for a permanent jump to the majors at some point in 2012.

Other solid mid-round picks: Cla Meredith (6th, 2004), Dustin Richardson (5th, 2006), Kyle Weiland (3rd, 2008), Ryan Westmoreland (5th, 2008), Tim Federowicz (7th, 2008), Christian Vasquez (9th, 2008), Jeremy Hazelbaker (4th, 2009), Brandon Jacobs (10th, 2009), Sean Coyle (3rd, 2010), Garin Cecchini (4th, 2010), Henry Ramos (5th, 2010), Cody Kukuk (7th, 2011)

Top late-round picks (11th–50th rounds)

1. Josh Reddick -- Selected in the 17th round of the 2006 draft, Reddick was the regular right fielder for the 2011 club and has a solid future as a third or fourth outfielder.

2. Drake Britton -- Boston picked up Britton, a lefty with a plus curveball and a mid-90s fastball, in the 23rd round in 2007. The 22-year-old had a poor season with High-A Salem in 2011, but still projects as a major league arm, whether it be a back-of-the-rotation starter or perhaps a high-leverage reliever.

3. Miles Head -- Head was drafted in the 26th round in 2009. He put up mediocre numbers in 2009 and 2010, but in 2011 the powerful first baseman hit .299/.372/.515 with 22 home runs in 495 at-bats between stops in Salem and Low-A Greenville.

4. Alex Hassan -- A Massachusetts native picked up in the 20th round in 2009 out of Duke, Hassan has shown an excellent plate approach at every level. In 2011, he hit .291/.404/.456 with 13 home runs for Double-A Portland. He likely projects as a fourth outfielder at the major league level.

5. Lars Anderson -- Once considered the top prospect in the organization, Anderson was drafted in the 18th round in 2006. While his stock has faded significantly in recent years, he still could have a future as a contributor at first base for a second-division club.

Other solid late-round picks: Luis Exposito (31st, 2005), Bubba Bell (39th, 2005), Kyle Stroup (50th, 2007), Dan Butler (undrafted free agent, 2008), Keith Couch (13th, 2010)

Worst draft picks

1. Jason Place -- Boston selected Place in the first round (27th overall) of the 2006 draft, and gave the prep outfielder a $1.3 million bonus, passing on players such as Joba Chamberlain, Chris Perez, Trevor Cahill and Zach Britton. Place went on to hit .230 over his minor-league career, never made it past Double-A and was released by the Red Sox in March 2011.

2. Mike Rozier -- After drafting Rozier in the 12th round in 2004, Boston gave him a $1.575 million bonus, one of the largest bonuses ever given out by the club to that point. The right-hander struggled with confidence and weight issues during his minor-league career, ultimately posting a 16-24 career record with a 5.23 ERA. He played in only one game above A-Ball during his career, and was released by the Red Sox in March 2009.

3. Jonathan Egan -- The Red Sox took Egan in the second round (57th overall) in 2005, and gave him a $625,000 bonus. He ran into some legal trouble early in his career, and after posting a .235 career batting average, the catcher was released in March 2008. He never played beyond Low-A Greenville.

4. Kris Johnson -- A left-hander out of Wichita State, Johnson was selected in the supplemental first round (39th overall) of the 2006 draft and given an $850,000 bonus. While he showed a few flashes of brilliance during his minor-league career, he was mostly mediocre and was released after putting up a 12.63 ERA in eight appearances with Pawtucket in 2011. Over his minor league career, Johnson was 28-49 with a 5.10 ERA.

5. Mickey Hall -- Boston selected Hall in the second round (54th overall) of the 2003 draft, passing on the likes of Andre Ethier, Scott Baker, Shawn Marcum and Drew Stubbs. The Sox traded Hall to Cleveland for Paul Byrd in 2008. He hit .234 over his minor league career, which ended following the 2009 season.

Other high-round picks that didn’t pan out: Abe Alvarez (2003, 2nd), Andrew Dobies (2004, 3rd), Craig Hansen (2005, 1st), Scott Blue (2005, 4th).

Other high-round picks that haven’t panned out (yet): Caleb Clay (2006, Suppl.), Ryan Dent (2007, Suppl.), Derrik Gibson (2008, 2nd), Peter Hissey (2008, 4th)

Draft picks who the Red Sox didn’t sign

1. Brandon Belt -- Boston drafted Belt as a prep pitcher in the 11th round in 2006, but failed to sign him. San Francisco then took him in the 5th round in 2009, and he has since gone on to become the top prospect in the Giants’ system as a first baseman. The 23-year-old made his major league debut in 2011.

2. Pedro Alvarez -- Alvarez headed to Vanderbilt after Boston was unable to sign him after selecting him in the 14th round in 2005. After three outstanding years with the Commodores, Pittsburgh took the third baseman with the second overall pick in 2008. While he hasn’t lived up to the expectations of a second overall pick to this point, he’s still only 24 and projects as an everyday third baseman over the long haul.

3. Yasmani Grandal -- Boston took Grandal, a Cuban catcher, in the 27th round in 2007, but was unable to sign him away from his commitment to the University of Miami. Cincinnati took him in the first round (12th overall) three seasons later. In two professional seasons, the backstop has hit .303/.401/.488 in the Reds’ system.

4. Matt LaPorta -- After the Red Sox failed to sign LaPorta after drafting him in the 14th round in 2006, the Brewers turned around and selected him in the first round (7th overall) the following season. While he’s had a mediocre major-league career to this point, he still has promise as an impact first baseman.

5. Hunter Morris -- Boston opted not to sign Morris because he changed his bonus demands after the Sox drafted him in the second round in 2007. He spent three years at Auburn, after which time Milwaukee picked him up in the fourth round of the 2010 draft. The first baseman has put up a .266/.303/.457 line in two seasons in the Brewers’ system.

Other draftees who didn’t sign with the Red Sox: Steve Pearce (10th, 2004), Jason Castro (43rd, 2005), Alex Meyer (20th, 2008), Sam Stafford (40th, 2008), Branden Kline (6th, 2009), Tyler Barnette (9th, 2010), Eric Jaffe (19th, 2010), Senquez Golson (8th, 2011)

Heading into the minor-league offseason, here are the top 10 prospects in the Red Sox system, as compiled by the site management team at SoxProspects.com:

1. Will Middlebrooks (23 years old)
3B, Triple-A Pawtucket/Double-A Portland/Short-Season Lowell (rehab)
How acquired: Drafted in the 5th round, 2007. $925,000 bonus.
2011 Stats: .285/.328/.506 with 23 home runs.
Scouting Report: Middlebrooks is a solid all-around athlete with an ideal third-baseman’s frame. He has packed on a lot of muscle since signing in August 2007, but has managed to maintain above-average athleticism. On offense, he has plus bat speed with a nice upward plane through the strike zone, and he hits the ball hard with backspin when he squares it up. With improving bat control and pitch recognition, Middlebrooks projects to have plus power to all fields at the major-league level. However, he’s an aggressive hitter who will need to learn to be a bit more selective at Triple-A before making the jump to the big leagues. He also tends to over-extend his arms during his swing, which causes him to be susceptible on the inner third of the zone. He will need to refine his approach with inside pitches to produce more consistent contact and reduce the strikeouts. He also has the tendency to over-pull the ball during extended stretches, and has proven to be at his best when he’s using the whole field. Defensively, Middlebrooks is rounding toward becoming a plus overall defender. He has a plus-to-elite arm, as he was a highly-regarded pitcher in high school. He’s light on his feet defensively with strong anticipation, reaction, and first step skills. He shows solid footwork and typically stays square to the ball. He could stand to improve range to his left by stabbing less at the ball and taking another step or continuing to become comfortable throwing on the move. Overall, he’s a hard worker who has shown an exemplary ability to make adjustments each season.
Projection: Long-term above-average starter at third base
Ceiling: Perennial All-Star, middle-of-the-order bat
Projected 2012 assignment: Pawtucket with a late-season call-up to Boston

2. Ryan Kalish (23)
OF, Pawtucket/Lowell (rehab)
How acquired: Drafted in the 9th round, 2006. $600,000 bonus.
2011 Stats: .228/.291/.293 with 0 home runs.
Scouting Report: Kalish is an excellent athlete with a solid build, good bat speed, and lots of quickness. He plays the game at full tilt. The organization has worked with Kalish on his plate patience over time, and he has come to demonstrate an excellent approach on offense. He makes solid contact, hits to all fields, and shows average to above-average present power, with the potential to add more. While his speed is a tick above average, Kalish steals a lot of bases due to his quick acceleration and high intelligence on the base paths. In the field, he has a reliable glove, excellent range, an average arm and average accuracy. He likely projects as a corner outfielder at the major-league level, but should be able to cover spot duty in center field. Overall, he plays all three outfield positions adequately or better. A tough competitor with a mature demeanor, Kalish tends to be very popular with coaches, teammates and fans. He missed part of 2007 season with a wrist injury that lingered throughout the 2008 season. He also missed most of the 2011 season with neck and back injuries.
Projection: Long-term starter in the outfield.
Ceiling: Occasional All-Star in his peak seasons, top-of-the-order bat.
Projected 2012 assignment: Boston, splitting right-field duties with Josh Reddick and getting time at all three outfield positions. Also could start the season in Triple-A, but would seemingly get an early call-up once he’s healthy and back on track.

3. Anthony Ranaudo (22)
RHP, High-A Salem/Low-A Greenville
How acquired: Drafted in the supplemental 1st round, 2010. $2,550,000 bonus.
2011 Stats: 9-6, 3.97 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 117 strikeouts, 46 walks in 127.0 innings
Scouting Report: Ranaudo was considered the top pitcher in the entire draft class and the second-best overall draft prospect heading into the 2010 season after going 12-3 with a 3.04 ERA and striking out 159 batters in 124.1 innings in 2009, on the way to leading LSU to a national championship. He fell to the Red Sox after a poor 2010 season due to injury and mechanical and confidence issues. He has a highly projectable arm with a frame that should be able to withstand the rigors of starting at the professional level. Throwing from a high 3/4 arm slot with a wide stride, Ranaudo gets a lot of leverage on the ball, generating nice downward action. He’s still working on improving his pace, balance, and incorporating his lower half more, but refinements in those areas will show improved performance in time. He presently has an above-average fastball that sits between 91 and 93 mph and tops out at 95 mph, with average-to-better command. He projects to add more sitting velocity as he matures physically. However, his shoulder can fly open early in outings, leading to subpar command in spells. He also throws a plus-76-79-mph hammer curveball with tight rotation and excellent depth through the strike zone. He shows an outstanding feel for the curveball, as he’s able to bury it out of the strike zone or drop it in for a strike. It’s a future swing-and-miss pitch at major league level. Ranaudo also mixes in a fringe-average low-80s changeup. Still a work-in-progress, he shows good arm speed with the offering, but he does not have full trust in the pitch at this stage. He’ll need to work it into more sequences as he approaches the upper levels of the organization. He’ll also need to work on improving his stamina so that he’ll be able to pitch deeper into games, but that should come along in time as his innings are increased each year.
Projection: No. 2 to No. 3 starter.
Ceiling: Ace starter.
Projected 2012 assignment: Portland.

4. Xander Bogaerts (18)
SS, Greenville
How acquired: Signed as an international free agent out of Aruba in August 2009. $410,000 bonus.
2011 Stats: .260/.324/.509 with 16 home runs in 265 at-bats.
Scouting Report: Bogaerts is a name that fans will hear a lot about this offseason, as he flashed extremely impressive power at a very young age with an advanced assignment to Greenville this year. He is the first player in recent memory that the Red Sox front office has skipped from the Dominican Summer League all the way to Low-A. He has an athletic frame with a lean body type, and couples those attributes with a high baseball IQ and maturity beyond his years. On offense, his smooth, fluid swing generates a lot of lift on the ball, and he’s able to hit to all fields. The 18-year-old Aruban has strong and explosive hands with good separation during his hitting stride. The ball really just explodes off his bat, leading to projections that he’ll be an above-average-to-better power hitter with high home-run and run-producing potential. In terms of areas of improvement, Bogaerts presently has below-average present pitch recognition and strike-zone judgment, and he’ll struggle with off-speed pitches as he climbs the organizational ladder, but that could improve as he tones down the aggressiveness of his approach. On defense, he has a slightly above-average arm with short action, solid range and rough footwork. With more experience, he should be able to slow his game down defensively and resist the need to rush plays. As he continues to grow, he projects to move off position and likely will end up at either third base or left field.
Projection: Still far away, making it very difficult to project. He could become an elite third baseman or left fielder, but he’s a boom-or-bust type that could also never make it above Double-A.
Ceiling: Highest ceiling in the organization -- Hall of Fame potential. Again, there’s also the potential that he never makes it to the major leagues.
Projected 2012 assignment: Salem, with the chance that he returns to Greenville for a short stint before an early promotion to High-A.

5. Jose Iglesias (21)
SS, Pawtucket/Boston
How acquired: Signed as an international free agent out of Cuba in September 2009. $6,000,000 bonus.
2011 Stats: .235/.285/.269 with 1 home run, 12 stolen bases with Pawtucket. Hitless in four at-bats with Boston.
Scouting Report: Iglesias has elite defensive skills highlighted by extremely fluid hands and a soft glove. He also shows excellent instincts and anticipation, resulting in well-above-average range. At 21, he already gets to ground balls in the hole that most major-league shortstops would not have the range to field. With his plus, accurate arm, Iglesias is adept at throwing on the move and has outstanding body control, resulting in a lot of spectacular plays. He’s a future perennial Gold Glove shortstop that grades as an "80" defensively. He can also play second and third base more than adequately. On offense, he projects as a No. 9 hitter in a first-division team's lineup, with the ceiling of a No. 2 hitter as he approaches his late-20s. While he has plus bat speed, a smooth swing and extremely quick wrists, he’s an impatient hitter who tends to be far too aggressive at the plate. He also has minimal power projection, but could evolve into a doubles hitter at Fenway as he matures. He shows above-average speed on the base paths. Due to his advanced defensive skills, Iglesias will most likely need to learn to hit at the major- league level and slowly ramp into becoming more proficient (and patient) at the plate over the course of his big-league career.
Projection: Long-term starter at shortstop, No. 9 hitter.
Ceiling: Perennial All-Star due to his Gold Glove defense, slightly above-average contact hitter.
Projected 2012 assignment: Pawtucket with a mid-season call-up to Boston.

6. Ryan Lavarnway (24)
C/DH, Pawtucket/Portland/Boston
How acquired: Drafted in the 6th round, 2008. $325,000 bonus.
2011 Stats: .290/.376/.563 with 32 home runs in the minors. .304/.407/.391 with 0 home runs in 23 at-bats with Boston as of Sept. 9.
Scouting Report: Lavarnway has a high baseball IQ with a solid catcher's frame. He projects as an above-average hitter at the major-league level, making slightly above-average contact and possessing excellent plate discipline. Hitting from a slightly closed, crouched stance, he attacks mistake pitches, especially ones out and over the plate. He can drive the ball to all fields, incorporating his lower body into his swing well. However, he likes to get his arms extended, which leads to some struggles on the inside third. Lavarnway has shown plus power during his time in the Red Sox system, and has the potential to hit 25-plus home runs a year at the major-league level. In terms of speed, he’s slow on the base paths, even for a catcher. Defensively, his skills are rough overall but he’s shown improvements since he joined the organization. He has limited range behind the dish, his reaction time can be slow, and his actions are generally stiff and rigid. Lavarnway also tends to stab at offerings, and his catching hand drifts when framing pitches. He has shown average ball-blocking skills, but he needs to improve how he controls balls bouncing out in front of him and the fluidity of his footwork. The one particular area where he has made ample strides is his catch-and-release mechanics. He has the potential to work his way up to major-league average in that area, especially as he’s an extremely hard worker dedicated to his craft. While increasing his versatility would improve his chances to earn regular time at the major-league level, he may not have the athleticism to play first base or left field in the majors.
Projection: Major league average DH, backup catcher.
Ceiling: Long-term, middle-of-the-order DH.
Projected 2012 assignment: Pawtucket, and a regular on the I-95 shuttle to Boston. Depending on how the offseason plays out, including whether or not David Ortiz and Jason Varitek re-sign, Lavarnway may be given a shot at the backup catcher and/or the starting DH roles with Boston.

7. Matt Barnes (22)
RHP, Lowell
How acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 2011. $1,500,000 bonus.
2011 Stats: 11-4, 1.62 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 111 strikeouts, 31 walks in 116.2 innings with UConn. Did not debut professionally after signing on August 15.
Scouting Report: With the 19th overall pick in the 2011 draft -- the club’s highest pick since 2003 -- the Red Sox selected Matt Barnes out of the University of Connecticut. Considered a potential top 10 pick after an excellent summer in 2010 with Team USA, his stock fell due to the impressive pitching depth in the 2011 draft class. A large righty with a very projectable body, Barnes features a plus fastball, which sits in the mid-90s and has already been clocked as high as 97 mph. His fastball command has been inconsistent and below-average at times, and that will be an area he’ll need to focus on in 2012. His high-70s curveball is his best secondary pitch, grading out as solid-average, and he also makes use of a decent low-90s cutter, an average mid-80s changeup, and a subpar low-to-mid 80s slider. His secondary stuff needs some refinement, but he has the potential to develop two and possibly three of those offerings into major-league pitches. He’ll need to work on repeating his delivering and maintaining a consistent arm slot with all of his pitches.
Projection: No. 3 or No. 4 starter.
Ceiling: No. 2 starter.
Projected 2012 assignment: Greenville, with a shot at Salem out of the gate or early in the season.

8. Bryce Brentz (22)
OF, Salem/Greenville
How acquired: Drafted in the supplemental 1st round, 2010. $889,200 bonus.
2011 Stats: .306/.365/.574 with 30 home runs.
Scouting Report: A solid athlete with a developed body, Brentz was one of the best collegiate players in the nation in 2009. His stock fell after a subpar 2010 season with Middle Tennessee State, causing him to slip out of the first round, and then fell even further after he struggled mightily in his first year as a professional, hitting just .198 with Lowell. He came back in a big way in 2011, however, posting monster offensive numbers at two levels of A-Ball. Brentz demonstrates plus bat speed and generates strong lift and post-contact extension with his swing. He tends to be ultra-aggressive at the plate, and will need to tone that down and improve his selectivity as he advances to higher levels. He has particular issues with chasing hard breaking balls off the plate and elevated fastballs. He shows solid-average-to-better power potential, with power to all fields. Despite that he’ll likely never demonstrate strong plate discipline, his bat control is good enough so that he should be able to maintain a decent batting average, as long as he’s able to hone his approach to some extent at each level. He has average speed on the base paths and range in the outfield. He also has a plus arm, which means he’s likely to stick in right field. He’ll just need to improve his routes and judgments on fly balls and line drives, especially considering that he made 17 errors in the outfield in 2011.
Projection: No. 3 or No. 4 outfielder.
Ceiling: Occasional All-Star, middle-of-the-order bat
Projected 2012 assignment: Portland

9. Brandon Jacobs (20)
OF, Greenville
How acquired: Drafted in the supplemental 10th round, 2009. $750,000 bonus.
2011 Stats: .303/.376/.505 with 17 home runs and 30 stolen bases.
Scouting Report: Prior to signing with the Red Sox, Jacobs was committed to playing football at Auburn, and thus focused his future more on football than baseball. Initially raw upon entering the organization, he has shown strong baseball acumen and a solid ability to incorporate adjustments. Jacobs has an impressive hitter’s frame, as his body has quickly evolved from that of a running back to that of an athletic outfielder. He has a fluid swing with plus bat speed that generates from his strong hands and lower-body torque. However, his swing is on the long side and he can hit out on his front foot too much. He’s put a lot of time into developing a disciplined plate approach, and he’s learning to be selective at the plate. Overall, Jacobs shows a real knack for getting the barrel of the bat on the ball, and has a high power ceiling, with plus-to-better power potential. He also has solid-average speed, meaning he has the ceiling to become a 25/25 player during his peak years. Defensively, Jacobs is slightly below-average in the outfield, and projects to stay in left field. He has an average arm with above-average range, but he really struggles with making reads.
Projection: No. 3 or No. 4 outfielder.
Ceiling: Occasional All-Star, long-term solid starter in left field.
Projected 2012 assignment: Salem

10. Blake Swihart (19)
C, Rookie-Level GCL Red Sox
How acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 2011. $2,500,000 bonus.
2011 Stats: Hitless in six at-bats in the Gulf Coast League. Hit .545 with 5 home runs and 19 stolen bases for his high school team.
Scouting Report: After leading the Team USA prep team in most offensive categories in 2010, Swihart was considered one of the top high school hitters in the 2011 draft, but fell due to a strong commitment to the University of Texas. Boston ultimately signed him for a bonus typically reserved for a top 10 pick. An athletic, switch-hitting catcher out of New Mexico, he projects as a plus hitter from both sides of the plate. His swing mechanics need some work from both sides of the plate, but he already possesses excellent bat speed and has the potential to develop above-average power. Athletic and possessing a strong arm, Swihart played both third base and catcher during his senior season, but the Red Sox front office sees him as a catcher for the foreseeable future. Considered undersized for a catcher, it is unclear whether he will stick at the position long term, but he has the athleticism to move to a corner infield or outfield position if necessary, and his bat has the potential to play up at any position.
Projection: Very difficult to project after only six professional at-bats. Swihart has the potential to become an All-Star catcher, could move off position where he’d be less valuable, or he could also never even make it to the major leagues, as is the case historically with many other first-rounders.
Ceiling: All-Star catcher.
Projected 2012 assignment: Greenville

Here’s a look at the best and worst performances in the Red Sox minor league system for August. (SoxProspects.com prospect ranking in parenthesis)

Top offensive players in August

(8) Bryce Brentz, OF, Salem -- .309 AVG/.384 OBP/.555 SLG with 7 HRs
(30) Jeremy Hazelbaker, OF, Portland -- .347/.404/.579 with 5 HRs, 15 SBs
(34) Jose Vinicio, SS, GCL Red Sox -- .386/.403/.529 with 5 SBs
(60) Matt Marquis, OF, Lowell/GCL -- .333/.458/.500 with 3 HRs
(NR) Daniel Nava, OF, Pawtucket -- .319/.414/.649 with 7 HRs

Brentz has put up an impressive .306/.366/.580 line with 29 home runs combined in stops at Low-A Greenville and High-A Salem this season … Hazelbaker continues to show a great combination of power and speed, hitting 16 home runs and stealing 47 bases for the year, but he’s also struck out 134 times in 462 at-bats … With the rookie-level Gulf Coast League wrapping up on Aug. 27, 18-year-old Vinicio led the Red Sox contingent in games, hits, stolen bases and batting average … Marquis, a 41st-round draft pick in 2011, was a highly-regarded prospect coming out of high school, but struggled in his collegiate career after breaking his hand and transferring schools to be closer to his parents, both of whom were diagnosed with cancer. He’s breezed through short-season ball so far and has the makings of a big-time sleeper … Nava is making a push for a September roster spot with the big club, posting remarkable power and plate discipline numbers in August.

Top pitchers in August

(21) Junichi Tazawa, RP, Pawtucket/Portland -- 2-1, 1.10 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 22/3 K/BB, 16.1 IP
(53) Kyle Stroup, SP, Greenville -- 3-1, 1.64 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 16/2 K/BB, 22.0 IP
(NR) Matt Fox, SP, Pawtucket -- 3-0, 1.05 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 29/6 K/BB, 25.2 IP
(NR) Luis Diaz, SP, Lowell -- 1-2, 1.24 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 17/5 K/BB, 29.0 IP
(NR) Charlie Haeger, SP, Portland -- 3-0, 2.37 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 40/20 K/BB, 38.0 IP

With a stellar August, Tazawa has almost assured himself of a spot on Boston’s roster in September, but probably not until Pawtucket ends its postseason run … Stroup, a former Mr. Irrelevant from the 2008 draft, has been outstanding working out of the Greenville rotation since the calendar turned to June, going 4-1 with a 1.27 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in that three-month stretch … Fox undoubtedly put up the best pitching line for August in the entire system, holding opposing batters to a .118 average for the month … Diaz, a 19-year-old right-hander out of Venezuela, has been the most consistent pitcher on the Spinners’ staff in 2011, placing himself among the team leaders in wins, ERA, strikeouts and WHIP … Haeger, a 27-year-old knuckleballer picked up in free agency after being released by Seattle in July, has pitched well enough with Portland that Boston may consider bringing him back next year in a role with Pawtucket.

August underachievers

(18) Drake Britton, SP, Salem -- 0-3, 7.15 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 21/14 K/BB, 22.2 IP
(19) Oscar Tejeda, 2B, Portland -- .227/.250/.258 with 0 HRs
(39) Madison Younginer, SP, Lowell -- 0-4, 6.75 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 17/17 K/BB, 26.2 IP
(45) Dan Butler, C, Portland/Salem -- .200/.297/.262 with 0 HRs
(46) Chris Martin, RP, Portland/Salem -- 1-1, 6.11 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 13/4 K/BB, 17.2 IP
(NR) Seth Schwindenhammer, OF, Lowell -- .205/.256/.315 with 1 HR

Britton’s forgettable season continued into August and his season line now sits at 1-13 with a 7.07 ERA, 1.72 WHIP and 53 walks in 91.2 innings. The 22-year-old lefty is likely slated for a return stint with Salem in 2012, where he’ll need to show improved command, control and confidence … Tejeda’s struggles with advanced breaking stuff were on display at Futures at Fenway on Aug. 20. The 21-year-old second baseman will need to make significant strides in his plate approach in order to advance past Double-A … Younginer, a 20-year-old righty, has had a shaky season repeating short-season ball with Lowell. While he’s flashed some impressive stuff, his control needs work and his mechanics likely need some refinement … Butler is still in a transition period, having played only 19 games since his promotion to Double-A. He should get a chance to start for Portland in 2012 after participating in the Arizona Fall League with Scottsdale this fall … Martin is in a similar position, having struggled early on in making the tough jump from High-A to Double-A. After dominating two levels of A-ball in 2011, the 25-year-old reliever has posted a 24.55 ERA in two appearances with Portland … While Schwindenhammer won the skills competition at the NY-Penn League All-Star Game and minor league baseball’s “Moniker Madness” title for best name in the minors, he also has the worst strikeout rate in the organization, having struck out in a whopping 47.3 percent of his plate appearances.

Trends

As of Sept. 1, here are your batting leaders for players currently in the Red Sox system (cumulative stats, min. 200 plate appearances): Greenville OF Matty Johnson at .309, Brentz at .306, Greenville OF Brandon Jacobs at .306 and DSL Red Sox OF Ynoel Aguero at .303 … OPS leaders are Brentz at .946, PawSox C Ryan Lavarnway at .928 and Portland 1B Reynaldo Rodriguez at .905 … Lavarnway leads the organization with 31 home runs, followed by Brentz at 29, and Pawtucket 3B Will Middlebrooks and Salem 1B Miles Head, both with 21 … Greenville OF Felix Sanchez leads the system with 54 stolen bases, with Hazelbaker just behind him at 47 steals ... Among the pitchers, former Portland right-hander Stephen Fife, who was traded to the Dodgers in the Erik Bedard deal, still leads the system with 11 wins. Pawtucket RHP Alex Wilson and Salem LHP Chris Hernandez are second with 10 wins apiece … The system’s ERA leaders (min. 75 innings) are Salem RHP Jeremiah Bayer (2.73), Hernandez (2.90) and Wilson (3.05) .. The leaders in strikeouts are RHP Kyle Weiland with 126, Portland RHP Brock Huntzinger with 123 and Greenville RHP Keith Couch with 120.

Heading into the final weekend of the minor league season, only two Red Sox affiliates are in postseason contention. Pawtucket seems like a safe bet for the playoffs, with a decent lead in both the division and in the wild card standings. Greenville has clinched the wild card in the South Atlantic League, but needs Savannah to win the division to ensure that the wild card actually makes the postseason. The Sand Gnats currently have a one-game lead in the division over Augusta.

Several of the minor leagues have already named their postseason All-Star teams. Among the Red Sox prospects receiving honors so far are Middlebrooks and the recently traded Chih-Hsien Chiang in the Eastern League and Jacobs in the South Atlantic League … If the Sox are desperate for batters who can pound left-handed pitching, there is some hope at the upper levels of the system: Lavarnway has a 1.159 OPS against lefties in 2011 and several others have had similar success, including Portland OF Alex Hassan (1.034), Pawtucket INF Hector Luna (1.033), Rodriguez (1.032) and PawSox INF Drew Sutton (1.027) … If you’re looking for a preview of what players will make the system’s “best tools” lists this offseason, it could look something like this: Lavarnway (best bat and best present power -- followed closely by Brentz in the latter category), Greenville SS Xander Bogaerts (best raw power), Hassan (best plate discipline), Hazelbaker (best athlete), Sanchez (best speed), Pawtucket SS Jose Iglesias (best defensive player), Pawtucket OF Che-Hsuan Lin (best outfield arm), Middlebrooks (best infield arm), Lowell RHP Matt Barnes (best present fastball), Lowell RHP Raul Alcantara (best projected fastball), Britton (best curveball), Wilson (best slider), Portland RHP Stolmy Pimentel (best changeup) and Couch (best control).

Player movement

Three minor leaguers received promotions to the big club in August -- Lavarnway, RHP Michael Bowden and RHP Scott Atchison … LHP Randy Williams was outrighted to Pawtucket to make room for Lavarnway on the 40-man roster … Among the players receiving minor-league level promotions in August were Tazawa, Wilson and Middlebrooks from Portland to Pawtucket; Butler, Martin and LHP Will Latimer from Salem to Portland; LHP Manny Rivera and RHP Jordan Flasher from Greenville to Salem; Johnson, RHP Andrew Jones and C Jayson Hernandez from Lowell to Greenville; RHP Mat Price from the GCL to Greenville; and Marquis, Alcantara and C Oscar Perez from the GCL to Lowell … To acquire OF/1B Conor Jackson from Oakland before the Sept. 1 postseason eligibility deadline, the Sox gave up 25-year-old reliever Jason Rice, who flashed a mid-90s fastball with Pawtucket this year.

Boston picked up three minor league free agents over the past month in OF Brett Carrol, LHP Greg Smith and LHP Trever Miller, and assigned all three to Pawtucket … The club also acquired the contracts of five independent league players in August in OF Joey Gathright, C Jeff Howell, LHP Robby Scott, RHP Matt Rusch and RHP TJ Hose … Boston also signed nine 2011 draft picks in August, including Barnes (1st round), C Blake Swihart (1st), LHP Henry Owens (supplemental), OF Jackie Bradley, Jr. (supplemental), RHP Noe Ramirez (4th), INF Mookie Betts (5th), LHP Cody Kukuk (7th), RHP Matt Spalding (29th) and Marquis (41st) … Four Red Sox minor leaguers were released over the past month: RHP Kevin Millwood, OF Zach Daeges, RHP Clevelan Santeliz and RHP Chris Huseby.

Injury front

PawSox OF Ryan Kalish’s season came to an end this past week when he had surgery to repair a bulging disc in his neck. He’ll need three months of rehab but should be ready to go for spring training 2012 … Three other PawSox who had hoped for a chance with Boston in September spent large parts of August on the disabled list, including Sutton (finger fracture), INF Brent Dlugach (left shoulder sprain) and RHP Brandon Duckworth (elbow strain) … Portland RHP Caleb Clay has been out of action since Aug. 3 with back inflammation … Sea Dogs RHP Chris Balcom-Miller and INF Jon Hee collided on a play at first on Aug. 22, resulting in both players being placed on the DL with concussions … Salem 3B Kolbrin Vitek was placed on the DL on Aug. 31 with a strained oblique muscle that he suffered on Aug. 28. It’s likely Vitek has seen his last action of the 2011 season … Stroup has been on the DL since Aug. 20 with a left elbow contusion.