BOSTON -- The Red Sox go into this offseason with just more than $45 million in guaranteed salaries, after having an Opening Day payroll of around $175 million in 2012.
That commitment could grow by roughly $29 million to $30 million if the Sox retain all 11 of their arbitration-eligible players this winter, according to a formula devised by Matt Swartz of MLBtraderumors.com. Last year, Swartz came within $1 million of all but four of 156 arbitration-eligible players, so he has a track record.
Here are the salaries projected by Swatrz for Boston’s arbitration-eligible players, a class that is led by Jacoby Ellsbury, who figured to cross the $10 million threshold in his final year of arbitration eligibility if he hadn’t lost so much time to injury. Swartz is projecting just a slight bump for Ellsbury from $8.05 million to $8.1 million, which might be on the light side, especially since Ellsbury’s agent is Scott Boras.
Injury also will play a role in tamping down Andrew Bailey’s 2013 salary. Bailey was paid $3.9 million in 2012 and should expect around the same, Swartz contends, given the time he missed and his subpar performance when he returned.
The complete list:
Jacoby Ellsbury -- $8.1 million
Andrew Bailey -- $3.9 million
Jarrod Saltalamacchia -- $3.9 million
Alfredo Aceves -- $2.6 million
Craig Breslow -- $2.4 million
Ryan Sweeney -- $1.8 million
Daniel Bard -- $1.6 million
Andrew Miller -- $1.4 million
Franklin Morales -- $1.4 million
Scott Atchison -- $800,000.
Swartz did not list Junichi Tazawa, who was paid $920,000 last season and is in his first season of arbitration eligibility.
It is unlikely that all 11 players will return. Some could be traded, others may be nontendered.