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Monday, April 21, 2014
Exploring Bills' trade-up scenarios

By Mike Rodak

As part of our Twitter mailbag Saturday, one reader asked about the Buffalo Bills' chances of trading up in the first round of the NFL draft next month.

Since there are a multitude of different scenarios in which the Bills could move up the board, it's nearly impossible to outline each case. However, it's worth taking a look at a draft trade value chart -- like this one provided by reputable scouting service Ourlads -- and evaluating some of the more likely situations. There are several trade value charts and each trade scenario can vary greatly depending on the point values assigned to picks.

Here are the key details to any Bills first-round trade:

There are currently eight teams picking ahead of the Bills: the Houston Texans (No. 1), St. Louis Rams (No. 2), Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 3), Cleveland Browns (No. 4), Oakland Raiders (No. 5), Atlanta Falcons (No. 6), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 7), and Minnesota Vikings (No. 8).

The Bills hold their original selections in each round except the sixth round, with no added picks: first round (No. 9), second round (No. 41), third round (No. 73), fourth round (No. 109), fifth round (No. 149), and seventh round (No. 224).

Assuming the Bills won't select a quarterback in the first round, there are realistically only six players who the Bills would consider trading up to select: defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, linebacker Khalil Mack, offensive tackles Greg Robinson and Jake Matthews, and wide receivers Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans.

Based on the point values assigned by Ourlads, which may differ from those used by teams during the draft, here are some of the possible trades that the Bills could offer to teams ahead of them in the draft order:

To select at No. 8 (1,400 points):
*No. 9 pick (1,350) plus No. 109 pick (76) with a sixth-round pick coming to Buffalo.

To select at No. 7 (1,500 points):
*No. 9 pick (1,350) plus No. 73 pick (225) with a fourth-round pick coming to Buffalo.

To select at No. 6 (1,600 points):
*No. 9 pick (1,350) plus No. 41 pick (490) with a third-round pick coming to Buffalo, or
*No. 9 pick (1,350) plus No. 73 pick (225) plus No. 109 pick (76) with a fifth-round pick coming to Buffalo.

To select at No. 5 (1,700 points):
*No. 9 pick (1,350) plus No. 41 pick (490) with a fourth-round pick coming to Buffalo.

To select at No. 4 (1,800 points):
*No. 9 pick (1,350) plus No. 41 pick (490) with a fifth-round pick coming to Buffalo.

None of those trade scenarios involve the Bills giving up a future pick. If the Bills wanted to move higher -- to No. 3 (2,200 points), No. 2 (2,600), or No. 1 (3,000) -- they would almost certainly need to surrender their 2015 first-round pick.