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Reading Mel Kiper Jr.'s grades the morning after the draft is like a holiday tradition. No matter how much we all understand intuitively that it's impossible to project future success, we still want to know what the man who has spent three decades evaluating draft classes thinks of our favorite team's efforts.

You'll need an Insider subscription to read the entire evaluation, but below is what I can sneak to you if you don't tell anyone:

Green Bay Packers

Mel's grade: B+

Kiper Jr. snippet: " I love what Green Bay got out of this draft, particularly at two spots -- defensive end and running back."

Seifert comment: The Packers really went after the running back position, drafting two backs -- Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin -- that many teams pegged as feature backs on their own. Franklin also hedges concerns about Lacy's durability. The Packers can feel confident that at least one of them will make an impact on 2013. Defensive end Datone Jones is a different-looking player than what the Packers currently have at the position, and fits into the league's trend toward longer and leaner even for 3-4 ends.

Minnesota Vikings

Mel's grade: B

Kiper Jr. snippet: "Hey, they got starters, but they needed to add impact in this draft considering they dealt [Percy] Harvin and had a few pretty big needs."

Seifert comment: A good portion of evaluating this draft will come down to whether receiver Cordarrelle Patterson pans out. The Vikings gave up their chance to draft a starting-caliber middle linebacker, among other things, by trading back up into the first round to draft him. The Harvin trade was a big motivator. Kiper really thought the Vikings needed to get linebacker Manti Te'o; I just thought they needed someone at that position. Seventh-round draft pick Michael Mauti could be a factor if he can recover from a third torn ACL. Regardless, three first-round draft choices give the Vikings a good chance at a high-impact draft.

Detroit Lions

Mel's grade: B

Kiper Jr. snippet: "The pivot point for how we see this draft in three years will be [Ezekiel] Ansah. If he's great, then it looks good. If he's not, and Dee Milliner thrives with the Jets, fans will wonder."

Seifert comment: It would be disappointing if the Lions didn't get at least two functional starters out of their first three picks. It doesn't matter who is on the field for the first play of the game, but you would like to see Ansah get as many snaps as he can for development purposes. Cornerback Darius Slay should compete with Bill Bentley to start opposite Chris Houston and, at worst, play in nickel situations that comprise more than half of most team's defensive snaps. And third-round guard Larry Warford should push hard for the right guard spot.

Chicago Bears

Mel's grade: C+

Kiper Jr. snippet: "My issue with [Kyle] Long isn't that he's short on talent -- he's not. I just wasn't in love with the value."

Seifert comment: We'll never know if the Bears would have been better off trading down to grab Long later or waiting until the second round. Kiper Jr. didn't like the decision and thought tight end Tyler Eifert would have been a better choice. I'm stuck here, because we all know how much help the Bears' offensive line needs. Solidifying an interior spot, if that's what Long does, will help quarterback Jay Cutler in a measureable way. That's no different in the big picture than what Eifert could do. We all can agree, however, that the Bears upgraded their linebacker depth significantly with Jon Bostic and Khaseem Greene.

Related: For fun, here are Kiper Jr.s NFC North grades for the 2010, 2011 and 2012 drafts.

» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

How top-heavy was the 2013 draft in the NFC North? We welcomed more players in the first round (six) than in the second and third rounds combined (four), the result of two big trades.

With the 2013 affair basically in the books, let's take a closer look at its highs and lows. So much happened that we might not get to the relatively rare occurrence of two punters being drafted.

Onward:

BEST MOVE

The Green Bay Packers have gone 43 games without a 100-yard rusher, the longest active streak in the NFL by more than twice. Their running backs have combined for 12 rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons, the fewest in the NFL, and their average of 3.8 yards per rush over that span is tied for last in the league.

After years of subordinating this segment of their roster, the Packers reacted aggressively in 2013. They drafted not one but two of the top running backs available. Alabama's Eddie Lacy came in the second round (No. 61 overall), and UCLA's Johnathan Franklin came in the fourth round (No. 125 overall).

The relative flurry came at a time when the rest of the league appeared to have devalued the position. It was the first time in the history of the modern draft that zero running backs were selected in the first round. Perhaps the timing was coincidence, but if general manager Ted Thompson intended to capitalize on depressed prices to load up, it was a brilliant thought.

Thompson and the Packers had been trying to patch together the position ever since Ryan Grant broke his ankle in Week 1 of the 2010 season. It was time to find a more permanent solution, and Lacy and Franklin give them the personnel infusion they needed.

Runner-up: Like the Packers, the Chicago Bears finally attacked an area of need. They used two of their first three selections in what was originally a five-pick draft on high-end linebackers who actually project as starters rather than special-teams contributors. Second-rounder Jonathan Bostic could be the Bears' middle linebacker as early as this season, and fourth-rounder Khaseem Greene was one of the best defensive playmakers in college football last season.

RISKIEST MOVE

The Minnesota Vikings used four draft picks to move back into the first round and select Tennessee receiver Cordarrelle Patterson, taking on risk in two forms.

First, Patterson is a boom-or-bust prospect who spent only one year playing at the Division I level. He has the physical tools to be an exceptional player but has more development ahead of him than most first-round picks. Here's how ESPN analyst Todd McShay put it before the draft: "He scares me coming out of Tennessee, but I see the talent. … Patterson, with the ball in his hands, is just freakish, and even though he disappears for 30-40 plays [per game], he'll show up with one or two big plays a game that just kind of blow your mind and leave you wanting more."

At the very least, Patterson will need to be guided through the early part of his career. The Vikings hope to start him off as a kickoff returner and work him into their offense slowly. Expecting him to jump into the starting lineup alongside Greg Jennings for a full 70 plays per game is probably unrealistic.

Second, the trade left the Vikings unable to fill one of their most pressing needs: middle linebacker. Giving up picks in the second and third rounds left them watching as more than a half-dozen middle linebackers were drafted. The Vikings gave up the opportunity to fill that job on a long-term basis by jumping to draft a receiver who generated plenty of divergent viewpoints during the pre-draft evaluation process.

Runner-up: The Detroit Lions used the No. 5 overall pick on a pass-rusher who had 4.5 sacks in his college career. BYU defensive end Ezekiel Ansah has all the physical tools to be a dominant pass-rusher, but his learning curve is steep and his potential for immediate impact is at least worth questioning.

MOST SURPRISING MOVE

You would have been hard-pressed to find a mock draft that projected Oregon guard Kyle Long as a first-round pick. In a seven-round mock performed last week, Scouts Inc. suggested he would go No. 47 overall. And even that was based on Long's overwhelmingly positive athletic attributes rather than evaluation of his limited play at Oregon.

The Bears produced arguably the surprise of the draft by selecting Long at No. 20 overall, a time when even the most polished guards are rarely taken historically. But the Bears were blown away by Long's agility for his 6-foot-6 frame and were willing to overlook a one-season, four-start career at the Division I college level.

There is no doubt the Bears needed help on their offensive line, but you could have a spirited philosophical argument over the draft value of a raw, inexperienced guard. Even if the Bears are right about Long -- that his athleticism will make him a long-term starter -- it's fair to question whether they needed to take him in the first round. Did another team covet the draft's third-best guard enough to take him between picks 21 and 50, where the Bears were situated in the second round? One explanation: The Bears, with only five total picks in the draft at that point, thought it would be too difficult to trade up in the second round assuming Long got out of the first. I'm not going to say it was the wrong choice, but it sure was surprising.

FILE IT AWAY

The Lions bolstered their pass defense at the expense of some other positions of need. You can't have it all, and the Lions made some clear decisions.

On the plus side, they used three of their first four choices on Ansah, cornerback Darius Slay and defensive end Devin Taylor. Ansah (6-foot-5 with 35 1/8-inch arms) and Taylor (6-7 with 36-inch arms) will provide incredible length and a new look to the Lions' outside pass rush. Slay, meanwhile, has elite speed (4.36 seconds in the 40-yard dash).

That focus left the Lions less able to surround quarterback Matthew Stafford with additional weapons and protection. The Lions didn't draft an offensive tackle after the departure of both 2012 starters, and they didn't get around to selecting a receiver until grabbing Virginia Tech's Corey Fuller with the third pick of the sixth round (No. 171 overall).

(The Lions did draft guard Larry Warford in the third round.)

From a roster-balance perspective, it made sense for the Lions to focus on pass defense -- long a weakness -- rather than their passing offense. But the Lions still finished the draft with less depth at receiver and offensive tackle than they would have liked. Life is a trade-off, after all.

The Detroit Lions hosted the top receiver prospect in the 2013 draft, West Virginia's receiver Tavon Austin, on a visit Wednesday. But barring some draft-day maneuvering -- a trade down by the Lions or a move up from another NFC North team -- it seems unlikely that Austin will wind up in this division.

Which begs the question: How does the rest of the receiver class stack up for our teams?

That was one of the topics ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay discussed during a conference call last week. McShay ran through six other names, most of whom should be available when the Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers choose between No. 20 and No. 26 overall.

I consider this position to have division-wide relevance, given the Lions' clear desire to add an outside receiver opposite Calvin Johnson, the Vikings' depth issues following the trade of Percy Harvin, the Bears' continued push to fortify their passing game, and the Packers' history of relative routine drafting at the position.

The Lions have hosted three of the six names below on visits, in addition to Austin, while the Vikings had at least two in their building this month. The names are listed in order of McShay's evaluation. Note McShay's upside-down thoughts on the pair of Tennessee receivers.

Cordarrelle Patterson
School: Tennessee
McShay: "He scares me coming out of Tennessee, but I see the talent. Everyone I talk to in the league, I think he's gone in the top 20. … Patterson, with the ball in his hands is just freakish, and even though he disappears for 30-40 plays, he'll show up with one or two big plays a game that just kind of blow your mind and leave you wanting more, and I think that's why he's going to be able to go where he's going."

Keenan Allen
School: Cal
McShay: "Keenan Allen is not 100 percent [because of a knee injury]. He ran a 4.7 the other day. It's not a perfect situation. But he's a late-first, early-second round prospect and should play like that. He runs on tape, we estimate him at 4.53, 4.55 range. I think he is going to be a really, really good No. 2 in the league. He would be a good fit. He was catching the ball better than ever this year. He knows how to use his body. He's got size and he's thickly built. He's not a burner, but he's quick and he's athletic and he's got enough speed to challenge you and take advantage of mistakes. Keenan Allen to me would be the highest rated wide receiver when Tavon Austin and Patterson are off the board." [After the conference call, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Allen's drug test at the NFL scouting combine had been "red-flagged," requiring a re-test.]

Justin Hunter
School: Tennessee
McShay: "If you're looking for someone to run vertical routes and stretch the field … a poor man's Randy Moss, that's what Justin Hunter is. … He's a silky-smooth route runner, and he's the guy quite honestly when they needed a throw, when they needed to pick up a first down, when they needed a play at Tennessee, that's where they went. It wasn't to the other guy, Patterson. He's the one who showed up consistently on tape. I think he's a better football player than Cordarelle Patterson."

DeAndre Hopkins
School: Clemson
McShay: "After that group, you start getting into Robert Woods, DeAndre Hopkins, and Quinton Patton. They're all kind of in that same range -- 6-1, 200, 210, 212 pounds -- and they're all in mid-4.5's in terms of speed. Hopkins has the best hands of the three."

Robert Woods
School: USC
McShay: "I think you have to look at the whole picture and what has gone on throughout his career and the ups and downs. It might amount to nothing … The thing so often that's difficult to predict is, in addition, what are guys going to do when they have all this free time on their hands. … He could end up in Atlanta with a guy like Roddy White who will be [on him] all day … and he'll be fine. Or he could go to Detroit, where Calvin Johnson is the greatest guy in the world but he's not going to get on you for making mistakes. He's not that kind of leader. If [Woods] is not going to be around guys that are going to make him accountable, maybe he's not the player he would be if he goes to an Atlanta and plays with Roddy White. That's the tricky part. That's why there is some more risk with him, because he's not necessarily the greatest self-starter."

Quinton Patton
School: Louisiana Tech
McShay: "He doesn't like going over the middle, but he's very athletic, he has great hands and ball skills 90 percent of the time, but he'll have some focus drops. He's a wild-card to me. If he plays to his potential, he could be the third- or fourth-best receiver of this group in the NFL."

Note: The Lions hosted Patterson, Hunter and Woods, according to the team's web site. The Vikings, according to 1500ESPN.com's Tom Pelissero, hosted at least Allen and Hopkins.

» NFC Eight in the Box: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

How does each team look at wide receiver, and what still needs to be done?

Chicago Bears: If I were in charge of the Bears, wide receiver isn’t a position I would pursue unless a prospect I really liked dropped in the draft and was just too good to pass up in the middle rounds. I really like what I saw from Alshon Jeffery in his rookie season, and his role should expand dramatically in 2013. Brandon Marshall, of course, is one of the best in the business, but the Bears were too reliant on him last season and need to spread the ball around more. Devin Hester has proved to be really only a return man, but he still could see some snaps on offense, and Earl Bennett remains a Jay Cutler favorite and a solid-if-unspectacular third wideout. Again, a middle- or late-round pick would be welcomed, but Chicago doesn't need substantial help at this position.

Detroit Lions: In Calvin Johnson, the Lions have the league’s best wide receiver. He is an unstoppable force in the prime of his fantastic career. The Lions have used a bevy of early-round picks on this position, so you would think they would be stacked at wide receiver. But that really isn’t the case, because they wisely parted ways with Titus Young, and Ryan Broyles is injured once again. Broyles tore his ACL on Dec. 2, so counting on him as an opening-day starter probably isn’t wise. But if Broyles returns to full health, he is an excellent wide receiver prospect and a great complement to Johnson. Nate Burleson and Mike Thomas have had success in this league and might be adequate until Broyles returns. Still, the Lions need help here, even though the addition of Reggie Bush, with his great receiving skills, lessens the concern. Offensive tackle and defensive end are much bigger needs than wide receiver, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Lions used a third- or fourth-round pick at this position.

Green Bay Packers: Greg Jennings is now a Viking and Donald Driver has retired, but Green Bay is still quite strong at this position. Jordy Nelson is just 27 and is a fine blend of size, reliability and big-play ability downfield. James Jones caught 64 passes last season, 14 of them for touchdowns. He is unlikely to match such lofty touchdown production, but you could do far worse than Jones as your third receiver -- and Green Bay employs a lot of three-receiver sets. The star in the making here is Randall Cobb. Cobb is a big-time playmaker who excels in the slot and can align in pretty much any spot in the formation, including at running back. As he and Aaron Rodgers continue to develop a great feel for each other, Cobb will rank among the most productive wide receivers in the game. The Packers’ top three wideouts are extremely strong, but Green Bay really has nothing outside these three. Expect Green Bay to add a bargain free agent and a draft pick before the season starts to round out the depth chart.

Minnesota Vikings: Although the Vikings picked up a first-round pick in the process, losing Percy Harvin was definitely a big blow to Minnesota’s offense. Adding Jennings helps for sure, but I have my doubts about whether he is still a true No. 1 wideout. Harvin is the superior player. But the Vikings do have two first-round picks, and one of those selections must be used at this position. The most probable name is Keenan Allen, whose stock probably will soar between now and draft day. But maybe Tavon Austin will slip in the first round and the Vikings will make a move to go up to snag him as Harvin’s replacement. Or possibly the Vikings will trade back a bit and secure a prospect such as DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Hunter or Robert Woods. Assuming Minnesota uses a first-round pick at this position, that shouldn't eliminate the notion of using another pick in the fourth or fifth round on a wideout. Also, a free agent such as Domenik Hixon could be a fine addition to Jennings, Jerome Simpson, Jarius Wright and Greg Childs. Simpson is loaded with ability, so I didn’t criticize the Vikes for bringing him back, but to call him unreliable would be generous. Wright is very intriguing, though. He isn’t Harvin, of course, but he was used in some similar ways while Harvin was out of the lineup last season -- and Wright looked very good in those situations. Obviously, the Vikings need more at this position, but when opening day rolls around, I highly doubt wide receiver will be a weak position for Minnesota.

» NFC Eight in the Box: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

A look at whether each NFC North team has been a winner or a loser in free agency.

Chicago Bears: A hot start in free agency netted left tackle Jermon Bushrod and tight end Martellus Bennett. The Bears had been trying for five years to find a genuine left tackle, and Bushrod's arrival should boost the faith of quarterback Jay Cutler. Bennett, meanwhile, gives the Bears the kind of pass-catching tight end they once had in Greg Olsen. But Bushrod and Bennett accounted for most of the salary-cap space the Bears had budgeted to use, and now they are nibbling the edges. Overall, however, the Bears improved two important positions, making them winners in free agency.

Detroit Lions: The NFC North's most active offseason team has added three new starters in running back Reggie Bush, defensive end Jason Jones and safety Glover Quin. Bush will have a big impact on balancing the explosiveness in the Lions' offense, and Quin will pair with the returning Louis Delmas to give the Lions their best safety duo in recent memory. The Lions have improved as many positions as they could have given their tight salary-cap situation.

Green Bay Packers: It's difficult to win when you don't play, and general manager Ted Thompson is notoriously reluctant to compete financially in the market. He allowed receiver Greg Jennings to sign with the Minnesota Vikings and didn't make a good enough offer on running back Steven Jackson. But the Packers have made the playoffs in four consecutive seasons by following a similar approach. These days, their focus is on saving enough salary-cap space to re-sign quarterback Aaron Rodgers and linebacker Clay Matthews. The Packers won't find two players better than that on the free-agent market.

Minnesota Vikings: In essence, the Vikings traded receiver Percy Harvin for Jennings, along with a first-, third- and seventh-round draft pick. They won't replace Harvin's unique skill set, but that's not a bad recovery. The Vikings are also in a better spot at backup quarterback with Matt Cassel rather than Joe Webb. But they don't have a middle linebacker after bidding farewell to Jasper Brinkley, and they remain thin at cornerback after releasing Antoine Winfield. The Vikings remain a work in progress this offseason. They haven't won or lost yet.

PHOENIX -- For the first time, the NFL's ongoing efforts to emphasize player safety have targeted offensive players. Owners are set to vote on two rule proposals this week that restrict potentially dangerous acts by offensive linemen and running backs. And in the latter case, at least, you can expect the running backs to fight back.

Chicago Bears tailback Matt Forte is the first active running back that I'm aware of to take a strong stance against the applicable proposed rule, which would penalize backs 15 yards for lowering their heads and initiating "forcible contact" with the top/crown of the helmet. League officials have said they would instruct officials to call only the most obvious examples, but Sunday morning, Forte tweeted:

"The proposed rule change for running backs might be the most absurd suggestion of a rule change I've ever heard of. In order to lower ur shoulder u obviously have to lower ur head. It's a way of protecting ur self from a tackler and a way to break tackles. U can't change the instinctive nature of running the football."

What Forte wrote makes a lot of rational sense. I look forward to hearing from other prominent running backs as well, including the Minnesota Vikings' Adrian Peterson, but my informed guess is that their breath will be wasted.

I ran into a few team officials Sunday morning as they began gathering at the Biltmore hotel, and they expressed varying opinions about whether the rule will pass. My feeling on these issues hasn't changed. Whenever the NFL attaches player safety to a proposed rule change, as it did two years ago when it altered kickoffs, the rule usually passes in some form, even if it is tweaked a bit.

Player safety rule changes are as important to the outside perception of the league as they are to actually increasing player safety. Rejecting those efforts by dismissing a rule change would send a mixed message about the league's intent. I don't think the league wants to do that. More to come, I'm sure.

Amid the unpredictability of NFL free agency we have at least one paragon of stability: ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr.'s latest mock draft . It is an Insider piece, of course, but I thought I would sneak you his choices for NFC North teams before they could be outdated by free-agent activity.

5. Detroit Lions
Kiper pick: BYU defensive end Ezekiel Ansah
Seifert comment: This pick has been gaining media steam but leaves unanswered the question of whether Ansah could excel right away. The Lions have said they need an immediate contributor with this pick.

20. Chicago Bears
Kiper pick: Alabama offensive lineman D.J. Fluker
Seifert comment: This pick would make sense on many levels but might not be necessary depending on what the Bears do in free agency. Because he is projected as a right tackle, Fluker figures to be available at this point in the first round.

23. Minnesota Vikings
Kiper pick: Cal receiver Keenan Allen
Seifert comment: The receiver position will be a big need for the Vikings even after free agency. They've cleaned house and need a total rebuild with a combination of veterans and rookies. Allen is big enough (6-foot-2) to be a legitimate downfield threat.

25. Vikings
Kiper pick: North Carolina defensive tackle Sylvester Williams
Seifert comment: The Vikings added this pick in exchange for Percy Harvin. One way or the other, they'll need to add some youth to a defensive line that includes three starters who are at least 30 years old.

26. Green Bay Packers
Kiper pick: Alabama running back Eddie Lacy
Seifert comment: Are the Packers really ready to spend a first-round draft pick on a running back? Media analysts seem to think so. It would be a departure from general manager Ted Thompson's recent history, for sure.

By the end of this offseason, it's quite possible that we'll set an NFC North blog record for discussions about inside linebackers. The Chicago Bears need a long-term replacement for Brian Urlacher, the Minnesota Vikings' starter (Jasper Brinkley) is a pending free agent, the Green Bay Packers might be looking for help at inside linebacker, and the draft's most recognizable name is Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te'o.

To that end, it's worth noting where the inside linebacker class stands, at least in the eyes of ESPN analysts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay. Kiper Jr. updated his list of the five best players at each position this week, while McShay released his third mock draft.

McShay had two inside linebackers in his mock: Georgia's Alec Ogletree to the New Orleans Saints at No. 15 and Te'o to the Baltimore Ravens at No. 32. Kiper's top five, on the other hand, looks this way:

1. Te'o
2. Ogletree
3. LSU's Kevin Minter
4. Florida's Jonathan Bostic
5. North Carolina's Kevin Reddick

Ogletree is considered the most talented inside linebacker in the draft, but has experienced two significant off-field issues in the past year, a drug suspension and a drunken-driving arrest. Obviously, Kiper Jr. thinks those issues will hurt him more than McShay does. Minter didn't impress teams at the NFL scouting combine with his time of 4.81 in the 40-yard dash at 246 pounds.

It makes you wonder if one of our teams would have a chance to draft a top-five inside linebacker in the bottom half of the second round. These assessments will change once again now that pro days have begun, but that's where things stand at the moment.

Just to keep things spicy around here, I kept this discussion about Jermichael Finley's future decidedly within the NFC North.

Finley, of course, said this week he would "walk" from the Green Bay Packers if he was asked to take a pay cut to stay with the team in 2013. Asked in the video by ESPN's Prim Siripipat where Finley could land if the Packers release him, the first team to come to mind was the Chicago Bears.

General manager Phil Emery has said the team needs more out of its tight ends in the passing game, putting starter Kellen Davis and backup Matt Spaeth on notice. Would the Bears target Finley if he were available? He has had some huge games against the Bears in the past, catching three touchdowns in Week 3 of 2011 and totaling 115 receiving yards in Week 3 of 2010, but both of those games came before the arrival of Emery or coach Marc Trestman.

This discussion will be moot if Finley remains with the Packers, but if he's set loose, he would be an intriguing option. It's something to consider over the coming weeks, if nothing else.

» NFC Eight in the Box: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Welcome to Eight in the Box, an NFL Nation feature that will appear each Friday during the offseason. This week's topic: How each NFC North team needs to address the quarterback position.

Chicago Bears: First, the new coach Marc Trestman must decide whether he thinks Jay Cutler is the team's long-term starter. Cutler's contract expires after the 2013 season, giving the Bears a chance to move on if Trestman is disappointed. Assuming he is not, the Bears must get Cutler signed to an extension over the next 12 months or be forced to use their 2014 franchise tag on him.

Of more immediate concern is Cutler's backup. Jason Campbell is a pending free agent, but the Bears might not want to devote the $3-$4 million in cap space it would require to re-sign him. Josh McCown, the 2012 third-stringer, could be an option.

Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford's $20.8 million cap figure needs to be lowered, and talks are underway on a contract extension. Regardless, he is the Lions' long-term starter. Backup Shaun Hill, 33, is signed through the 2013 season. He is a favorite of the coaching staff and is unlikely to be replaced by Kellen Moore, the 2012 third-stringer.

Green Bay Packers: Starter Aaron Rodgers' 2013 compensation of $9.75 million is well below market value and will lead to contract talks, but there is every expectation that he will play his entire career in Green Bay. Backup Graham Harrell played sparingly last season and could conceivably be challenged by 2012 draft choice B.J. Coleman.

Minnesota Vikings: Team officials have committed to Christian Ponder as their unquestioned starter, buoyed by his strong performance at the end of last season. Ponder will need a more consistent season in 2013 to generate "franchise" status, but the Vikings will give him every opportunity.

Backup Joe Webb will be forced to win his job back, probably in a training camp competition against a veteran to be acquired. Webb was thrown into an admittedly tough position as a surprise playoff starter, but his performance still cast doubt on whether he should be entrusted with the role moving forward.

» NFC combine preview: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

NFL Nation previews the 2013 scouting combine by identifying the most important thing for each team to learn about its greatest area of need.

Chicago: The Bears have a glaring hole at left tackle, but with the No. 20 pick, they likely aren’t in a position to select any of the consensus top players at the position (Texas A&M’s Luke Joeckel, Central Michigan’s Eric Fisher and Oklahoma’s Lane Johnson). The combine is another step in solidifying and ranking their targets among the second tier of left-tackle prospects for first- or later-round consideration. If the Bears don’t feel there is a draftable prospect with starting credentials for 2013, they could find a player in the tackle-rich free-agent market.

Detroit: With the No. 5 pick, the Lions can narrow their focus to a handful of prospects. Since Kyle Vanden Bosch has been released and Cliff Avril is a free agent, the Lions must hone in on the crop of top pass-rushers available and decide whether one is worth the substantial investment of the fifth pick. Taking a player such as Bjoern Werner, Damontre Moore or Barkevious Mingo would soften the blow of potentially losing Avril, and the combine will give the Lions a better sense of what each offers as a replacement. Team president Tom Lewand recently suggested the Lions need to find rookies who can contribute immediately, and being in Indianapolis will allow them to seek a pass-rusher who fits that mold.

Green Bay: There’s a shortage of top-rated running backs available in this draft, and the Packers discovered a bargain find in DuJuan Harris late last season. But there’s still room to upgrade the position, and the Packers need to search for a high-upside back who can be had in the middle rounds perhaps due to a lack of polish or concerns about an aspect of his game. Four of the top seven rookie rushing leaders from 2012 were drafted in the sixth round or later. There’s backfield talent to be had past the first round, and the Packers will head out to survey the landscape of mid-round running backs available.

Minnesota: Adrian Peterson stomped to nearly 2,100 yards in 2012 for an offense without a vertical passing game (or much of a passing offense at all), and finding a speedster to take the top off a defense would make one of the scariest sights in the NFL to an opposing defense even more frightening. The ability of defenses to stack the box helped to mildly contain Peterson; more space would open up if a vertical passing threat is on the field to stress the safeties in coverage. When the wideouts are running their 40s, the Vikings will have their stopwatches ready and be on the lookout for players who project as downfield receiving threats. Regardless of what the team decides to do with slot maven Percy Harvin (GM Rick Spielman recently shut down talk of a trade), adding a vertical receiver is a premium need for Minnesota this offseason.

» NFC Eight in the Box: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Welcome to "Eight in the Box," a new NFL Nation feature that will appear each Friday during the offseason. This week’s topic: Which free agent is essential for each team to keep from its 2012 roster?

Chicago Bears: In his two years as a starter, Henry Melton has 13 sacks -- more than all but one NFL defensive tackle over that stretch. Some argue his skills only fit certain schemes, but if that's the case, the Bears' new coaching staff should make sure it runs one that allows Melton to continue rushing the passer.

Detroit Lions: Defensive end Cliff Avril has his detractors, but there are plenty of teams that would love to have a player who has collected 29 sacks in his past three seasons. Safety Louis Delmas is important as well, but he has trouble staying healthy while Avril has started 40 consecutive games, including playoffs.

Green Bay Packers: The team can probably absorb the expected departure of receiver Greg Jennings, but there should be no debate about the value of keeping cornerback Sam Shields, a restricted free agent. Shields' starting-caliber play late last season means the Packers have no choice but to issue him a high enough RFA tender to prevent him from signing elsewhere.

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings were one of four teams to use the same starting offensive line all season, and right tackle Phil Loadholt was a big part of their success. He won't command elite money and wants to return, so a deal shouldn't be difficult.

This is the time of year for wild and unreasoned speculation on NFL free agency, and so I want to forward you two important posts from our ESPN.com Insider staff. One is a thorough ranking of available players from longtime executive Bill Polian , now an ESPN analyst. The other is a list of 10 players to stay away from, according to Khaled Elsayed of Pro Football Focus .

Both require Insider subscriptions to be read in full, but I'll do my best to sneak you some morsels over the next couple weeks. In cross-referencing the posts, there are two names that I've been getting questions about in regards to NFC North teams, including during Monday's SportsNation chat.

The first is running back Reggie Bush, whom Jason in Milwaukee wrote would be "a match made in heaven" for the Green Bay Packers. Polian and Elsayed both provide reasonable sobriety to that excitement.

Polian: "He's a name, but at this stage in his career, he's a third-down guy."
Elsayed: "[T]he same old problems prevail, as he averaged just 2.06 yards after contact per carry [in 2012], a number that was better than only five backs with more than 100 carries. He just isn't a convincing runner between the tackles, teasing us with the idea he will be and then being quick to bounce the ball outside."

It's true that a player of Bush's receiving skills would be productive in the Packers' offense. But what would help the team more, in terms of balance, is a physical running back who can move piles and get yardage on his own. Bush will never fit that description.

The second player is left tackle Jake Long, who has been an elite player but is coming off two years that most agree were not as good as his first three. I can't count how many people have suggested the Chicago Bears pursue him in free agency, even if it is to play right tackle. Here is part of what both analysts wrote about Long:

Polian: "His reputation will make him an A player, but he is an injury and age concern to me. He is turning only 28 to start next season, but he already has played 74 games, making a long-term deal a risk."
Elsayed: "If you judge a left tackle by his work in pass protection, Long has gone from ranking first in our pass blocking efficiency stat in 2009 and 2010 to 13th (2011) and what would have been 14th (2012) if he had have played enough snaps to qualify."

Again, this is silly season in the NFL. It's tough to intelligently match teams with free agents when you realize that many of the players on these lists will be re-signed and thus taken off the market before free agency begins. Some Packers fans are eyeing Bush and many Bears fans are zeroed in on Long, but we don't know yet whether the teams themselves share those sentiments or would even have the opportunity to act on them if they did.

First in a series of important offseason issues facing NFC North teams:

Quarterbacks are the most important players in the game. They're also, on average, the highest paid. Those undeniable facts could make for a significant offseason of contract news in the NFC North.

As we discussed in the fall, and as the chart documents, three of our starting quarterbacks are nearing the expiration of their contracts. I would classify two of the situations as urgent, albeit for different reasons. The third is the most undervalued of the bunch.


Could Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford all sign new contracts before the start of the 2013 season? I wouldn't rule it out and, no matter how you look at it, all three must have new contract parameters -- even if it means a franchise tag -- over the next 26 months.

I've tried to minimize the focus on contract issues in recent years because, for the most part, teams have kept the players they wanted most. The cash matters only to the owners, players and agents. As third-party observers, financial specifics are relevant only if they present a unique challenge to the salary cap.

The sheer size of contracts for starting quarterbacks, combined with a projected flat cap during much of this collective bargaining agreement, makes these situations quite relevant. Stafford and Cutler are in urgent situations, requiring franchise-altering decisions to be made perhaps before they throw their next pass, while Rodgers' contract is so outdated that his annual average is about half of what the New Orleans Saints paid Drew Brees last summer.

We'll start with Stafford, who was drafted No. 1 overall in 2009 -- two years before the NFL dramatically lowered the ceiling on rookie contracts. The Detroit Lions have already renegotiated his original six-year, $72 million deal twice to delay the accompanying salary-cap headache, but it probably will come to a head this offseason.

Stafford is projected to count at least $20.32 million against the Lions' 2013 cap, close to the figure that forced the Lions to give receiver Calvin Johnson a record-breaking extension last spring to relieve the cap hit. Lions general manager Martin Mayhew is already on record saying he would like to get Stafford extended as well, and the question is how much of a premium the Lions will have to pay.

Stafford's rookie contract averaged $12 million annually and included $41.7 million in guarantees. Regardless of the CBA changes, agent Tom Condon will want to build on the original deal. Considering that Stafford will turn 25 next month, you wonder if he will finish his career with more on-field earnings than any player in NFL history. Even if he signs a six-year contract this offseason, he'll be only 31 when it expires. Brees was 33 when the Saints signed him to his five-year, $100 million deal.

Brees' deal will serve as the benchmark for Rodgers, who just turned 29. Rodgers' contract runs through the 2014 season, and he has expressed a desire to sign one more contract before he retires. His situation isn't exactly comparable to Brees, whom the Saints made their franchise player prior to the agreement, but a $20-million annual average isn't out of the question if the sides hold discussions this spring.

Rodgers is due to earn $9.75 million in 2013 and $11 million in 2014. From the Green Bay Packers' perspective, the only urgency is the assumption of a rising price tag over time. The longer they wait, the more expensive the deal probably will be.

The Bears, meanwhile, can't wait too much longer on Cutler. Usually a team doesn't want to enter the season with an established quarterback entering his final contract year, but Cutler's situation is complicated by the arrival of new coach Marc Trestman -- who will make Cutler better and more expensive if he is the quarterback guru the Bears believe he is.

In that sense, it might make sense for Cutler to be patient for a deal in hopes an improved 2013 season enhances his value. The Bears, in turn, might want to see how the Cutler-Trestman dynamic plays out before making a long-term decision.

At some point -- maybe in a few months, definitely with two years -- the futures of all three quarterbacks will be addressed decisively. We'll be waiting.

Last Saturday, we took a closer look at how the Chicago Bears compiled a 10-6 record in 2012, noting their dominance of inferior competition and struggles against teams that finished the season with winning records. It wasn't necessarily the definitive analysis of the Bears' season, but it helped explain why general manager Phil Emery didn't allow the final record to impact his decision on coach Lovie Smith's future.

Wednesday, AFC South colleague Paul Kuharsky offers an avenue for weighing the Detroit Lions' 4-12 record. Kuharsky's adjusted strength of schedule removes each team's head-to-head result from the combined winning percentage of its opponents.

Lions opponents were 12-4 against the Lions this season, raising those team's combined winning percentage. When we take those 16 Lions games from the total equation, we get a truer sense of how good the Lions' opponents were.

As the chart shows, they were still good enough to confirm the Lions had the NFL's toughest schedule in 2012. The Minnesota Vikings ranked No. 4 and the Green Bay Packers and Bears tied for No. 7.

The full chart: