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» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

How top-heavy was the 2013 draft in the NFC North? We welcomed more players in the first round (six) than in the second and third rounds combined (four), the result of two big trades.

With the 2013 affair basically in the books, let's take a closer look at its highs and lows. So much happened that we might not get to the relatively rare occurrence of two punters being drafted.

Onward:

BEST MOVE

The Green Bay Packers have gone 43 games without a 100-yard rusher, the longest active streak in the NFL by more than twice. Their running backs have combined for 12 rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons, the fewest in the NFL, and their average of 3.8 yards per rush over that span is tied for last in the league.

After years of subordinating this segment of their roster, the Packers reacted aggressively in 2013. They drafted not one but two of the top running backs available. Alabama's Eddie Lacy came in the second round (No. 61 overall), and UCLA's Johnathan Franklin came in the fourth round (No. 125 overall).

The relative flurry came at a time when the rest of the league appeared to have devalued the position. It was the first time in the history of the modern draft that zero running backs were selected in the first round. Perhaps the timing was coincidence, but if general manager Ted Thompson intended to capitalize on depressed prices to load up, it was a brilliant thought.

Thompson and the Packers had been trying to patch together the position ever since Ryan Grant broke his ankle in Week 1 of the 2010 season. It was time to find a more permanent solution, and Lacy and Franklin give them the personnel infusion they needed.

Runner-up: Like the Packers, the Chicago Bears finally attacked an area of need. They used two of their first three selections in what was originally a five-pick draft on high-end linebackers who actually project as starters rather than special-teams contributors. Second-rounder Jonathan Bostic could be the Bears' middle linebacker as early as this season, and fourth-rounder Khaseem Greene was one of the best defensive playmakers in college football last season.

RISKIEST MOVE

The Minnesota Vikings used four draft picks to move back into the first round and select Tennessee receiver Cordarrelle Patterson, taking on risk in two forms.

First, Patterson is a boom-or-bust prospect who spent only one year playing at the Division I level. He has the physical tools to be an exceptional player but has more development ahead of him than most first-round picks. Here's how ESPN analyst Todd McShay put it before the draft: "He scares me coming out of Tennessee, but I see the talent. … Patterson, with the ball in his hands, is just freakish, and even though he disappears for 30-40 plays [per game], he'll show up with one or two big plays a game that just kind of blow your mind and leave you wanting more."

At the very least, Patterson will need to be guided through the early part of his career. The Vikings hope to start him off as a kickoff returner and work him into their offense slowly. Expecting him to jump into the starting lineup alongside Greg Jennings for a full 70 plays per game is probably unrealistic.

Second, the trade left the Vikings unable to fill one of their most pressing needs: middle linebacker. Giving up picks in the second and third rounds left them watching as more than a half-dozen middle linebackers were drafted. The Vikings gave up the opportunity to fill that job on a long-term basis by jumping to draft a receiver who generated plenty of divergent viewpoints during the pre-draft evaluation process.

Runner-up: The Detroit Lions used the No. 5 overall pick on a pass-rusher who had 4.5 sacks in his college career. BYU defensive end Ezekiel Ansah has all the physical tools to be a dominant pass-rusher, but his learning curve is steep and his potential for immediate impact is at least worth questioning.

MOST SURPRISING MOVE

You would have been hard-pressed to find a mock draft that projected Oregon guard Kyle Long as a first-round pick. In a seven-round mock performed last week, Scouts Inc. suggested he would go No. 47 overall. And even that was based on Long's overwhelmingly positive athletic attributes rather than evaluation of his limited play at Oregon.

The Bears produced arguably the surprise of the draft by selecting Long at No. 20 overall, a time when even the most polished guards are rarely taken historically. But the Bears were blown away by Long's agility for his 6-foot-6 frame and were willing to overlook a one-season, four-start career at the Division I college level.

There is no doubt the Bears needed help on their offensive line, but you could have a spirited philosophical argument over the draft value of a raw, inexperienced guard. Even if the Bears are right about Long -- that his athleticism will make him a long-term starter -- it's fair to question whether they needed to take him in the first round. Did another team covet the draft's third-best guard enough to take him between picks 21 and 50, where the Bears were situated in the second round? One explanation: The Bears, with only five total picks in the draft at that point, thought it would be too difficult to trade up in the second round assuming Long got out of the first. I'm not going to say it was the wrong choice, but it sure was surprising.

FILE IT AWAY

The Lions bolstered their pass defense at the expense of some other positions of need. You can't have it all, and the Lions made some clear decisions.

On the plus side, they used three of their first four choices on Ansah, cornerback Darius Slay and defensive end Devin Taylor. Ansah (6-foot-5 with 35 1/8-inch arms) and Taylor (6-7 with 36-inch arms) will provide incredible length and a new look to the Lions' outside pass rush. Slay, meanwhile, has elite speed (4.36 seconds in the 40-yard dash).

That focus left the Lions less able to surround quarterback Matthew Stafford with additional weapons and protection. The Lions didn't draft an offensive tackle after the departure of both 2012 starters, and they didn't get around to selecting a receiver until grabbing Virginia Tech's Corey Fuller with the third pick of the sixth round (No. 171 overall).

(The Lions did draft guard Larry Warford in the third round.)

From a roster-balance perspective, it made sense for the Lions to focus on pass defense -- long a weakness -- rather than their passing offense. But the Lions still finished the draft with less depth at receiver and offensive tackle than they would have liked. Life is a trade-off, after all.

» NFC Eight in the Box: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Welcome to Eight in the Box, an NFL Nation feature that will appear each Friday during the offseason. This week's topic: How each NFC North team needs to address the quarterback position.

Chicago Bears: First, the new coach Marc Trestman must decide whether he thinks Jay Cutler is the team's long-term starter. Cutler's contract expires after the 2013 season, giving the Bears a chance to move on if Trestman is disappointed. Assuming he is not, the Bears must get Cutler signed to an extension over the next 12 months or be forced to use their 2014 franchise tag on him.

Of more immediate concern is Cutler's backup. Jason Campbell is a pending free agent, but the Bears might not want to devote the $3-$4 million in cap space it would require to re-sign him. Josh McCown, the 2012 third-stringer, could be an option.

Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford's $20.8 million cap figure needs to be lowered, and talks are underway on a contract extension. Regardless, he is the Lions' long-term starter. Backup Shaun Hill, 33, is signed through the 2013 season. He is a favorite of the coaching staff and is unlikely to be replaced by Kellen Moore, the 2012 third-stringer.

Green Bay Packers: Starter Aaron Rodgers' 2013 compensation of $9.75 million is well below market value and will lead to contract talks, but there is every expectation that he will play his entire career in Green Bay. Backup Graham Harrell played sparingly last season and could conceivably be challenged by 2012 draft choice B.J. Coleman.

Minnesota Vikings: Team officials have committed to Christian Ponder as their unquestioned starter, buoyed by his strong performance at the end of last season. Ponder will need a more consistent season in 2013 to generate "franchise" status, but the Vikings will give him every opportunity.

Backup Joe Webb will be forced to win his job back, probably in a training camp competition against a veteran to be acquired. Webb was thrown into an admittedly tough position as a surprise playoff starter, but his performance still cast doubt on whether he should be entrusted with the role moving forward.

The final numbers for NFC North quarterbacks are in. And after a long offseason of debating whether we had two or three top-10 quarterbacks, only one had that type of season based on traditional statistics or advanced metrics. The rest were objectively close to average, as you can see in the chart, but I think we can agree all four will be back as their teams' unquestioned starters in 2013.

That's more than most divisions can say. In fact, the NFC South might be the only other group that can make a similar claim. While we have a moment, let's take stock of each quarterback's season-long performance using the information we've got from Jacob Nitzberg of ESPN Stats & Information, along with other sources.

The players are ordered based on their Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), which judges a larger swath of performance than passer rating.

Aaron Rodgers
QBR: 72.5
Passer rating: 108.0
Comment: Rodgers led the NFL in passer rating for the second consecutive year, and his rating of 114.9 since the start of the 2011 season is the best two-year performance in league history. He led the league in touchdown percentage (7.1), throwing 39 in 552 attempts, and compiled the fifth 4,000-yard season of his career. He also had the NFL's best QBR on third down among regular starters, and he was the league's fourth-most effective scrambler based on QBR. Still, Rodgers' season didn't quite stack up to his 2011 MVP performance. His turnovers doubled from six to 12, he took 15 more sacks and his total of 51 led the NFL. Not all of the sacks were Rodgers' fault, but some were and as a total they were costly. According to ESPN's advanced analytics, the sacks cost the Packers 32.5 points this season via clutch-weighted expected points.

Matthew Stafford
QBR: 58.9
Passer rating: 79.8
Comment: It's difficult to put dramatic credence in Stafford's 4,967 yards given his NFL-record 727 attempts. The Lions were the pass-happiest team in league history in part because of the number of games they trailed in. His touchdown passes fell by more than half, from 41 to 20, and his completion percentage dropped below 60 percent for the first time since his rookie season -- accounting for the low passer rating. (He did run for a career-high four touchdowns, however.) Stafford threw the NFL's second-most passes of at least 15 yards (158) and tied Drew Brees for the most completions in that category (67). But his late-game magic, which helped the Lions to comeback victories over the St. Louis Rams, Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks, trailed off in the second half of the season. His QBR after Week 8 ranked No. 21 in the NFL.

Christian Ponder
QBR: 53.8
Passer rating: 81.2
Comment: For a good chunk of this season, Ponder was one of the NFL's worst quarterbacks. He had nine turnovers in a five-game span, finished three games with fewer than 100 yards and had the lowest average pass length for most of the year. All of this came against defenses aligned to stop tailback Adrian Peterson's run toward history. But after a disastrous Week 13 performance against the Packers, Ponder quietly turned himself around and had the NFL's second-best QBR (86.8) over the final four games of the season, trailing only Peyton Manning. Over the second half of the season, Ponder's QBR on third down -- measuring not only passes but also his scrambles -- was the league's second best. He finished the season with the NFL's third-lowest average of yards per attempt (6.08), but at least part of the blame for his lack of explosiveness should be attributed to a substandard group of receivers. If nothing else, Ponder minimized any offseason discussion about his status as the Vikings' unquestioned starter in 2013.

Jay Cutler
QBR: 51.9
Passer rating: 81.3
Comment: Cutler pushed the ball downfield as much as any NFL quarterback after reuniting with receiver Brandon Marshall, but with modest success. His average pass traveled 10.0 yards in the air, the second-highest in the NFL. But his average yards gained per attempt, 7.0, ranked No. 16. He was vexed when defenses sent blitzes, partially because of the Bears' patchwork offensive line, but in the end Cutler had the league's fourth-worst QBR against it. The only NFL quarterbacks worse against the blitz were Brandon Weeden, Mark Sanchez and Brady Quinn. Cutler played well late in games, registering the third-best QBR in the fourth quarter and overtime, and it's worth noting the Bears won 10 of his 15 starts. Over the past three seasons, the Bears are 27-13 in games he starts and 2-6 in all others. In 2012, QBR deemed Cutler the league's most effective scrambler. He rushed for a first down on 36.6 of his scrambles.

Chicago Bears safety Major Wright said the Detroit Lions' Matthew Stafford is a good quarterback who can make any throw on the field, but Wright said Stafford "kinda folds" when he faces a little pressure.

Read the entire story.

NFC North passing wasn't pretty in Week 14, but Total Quarterback Rating can help us flesh out the performances of our four starters. Let's take a closer look with an assist from Jacob Nitzberg of ESPN Stats & Information:

Aaron Rodgers
Passer rating: 80.7
QBR: 82.7
Action plays: 32
Comment: To me, Sunday night was an example of how QBR tells a fuller story. Rodgers didn't throw a touchdown pass against the Detroit Lions, limiting his passer rating, but two big scrambles helped boost his QBR. Both came on third down, one converting a first down and the other ending in a 27-yard touchdown. QBR heavily credited the scoring run; if Rodgers had not gained yardage, the Packers were looking at a difficult 45-yard field goal in the snow. Rodgers was effective on mid-range throws, completing five of six that traveled between 11 and 20 yards in the air. His biggest mistake was fumbling on a sack at the Lions' 21-yard line on the Packers' first possession.

Matthew Stafford
Passer rating: 74.7
QBR: 57.1
Action plays: 53
Comment: Like the rest of the Lions, Stafford struggled in the fourth quarter Sunday night. Based on QBR, it was his second-worst fourth quarter of the season. When the Lions were trailing by one score, Stafford completed 1 of 4 passes for 5 yards, and both of his third-down throws were incomplete. Since Week 9, Stafford's fourth-quarter QBR is the fourth worst in the NFL after he spent the first eight weeks of the season near the top of the league's rankings. It's no surprise, then, that the Lions tied an NFL record for losing three consecutive double-digit leads. On the plus side, even with a depleted roster, Stafford was able to target receiver Calvin Johnson on 13 passes and complete 10 of them for 118 yards.

Jay Cutler
Passer rating: 57.0
QBR: 20.8
Action plays: 52
Comment: Cutler's two interceptions accounted for the two biggest swings in the game, positive or negative, based on ESPN's win probability tool. That makes sense intuitively as well. The first set up the Minnesota Vikings at the Bears' 5-yard line, resulting in a touchdown, and the second was returned for a touchdown outright. In a 21-14 game, those plays loomed large. Cutler did not have much success against the Vikings' blitz, completing 1 of 8 passes against it for 10 yards.

Christian Ponder
Passer rating: 53.8
QBR: 25.3
Action plays: 24
Comment: The good news: Ponder committed only one turnover, on a deep throw to receiver Jarius Wright, and took only one sack. Otherwise, Ponder seemed an afterthought in a game plan that called for 32 rushes on 53 non-kneeldown plays. Ponder didn't complete a pass that traveled longer than 9 yards in the air, and has completed one of 21 such throws over his past five games, including 17 consecutive incompletions.

Let's take a closer look at NFC North quarterback play in Week 10, which didn't include an idle Aaron Rodgers but did feature extended play by a backup in one division locale. Thanks again to ESPN statistics analyst Jacob Nitzberg for his help in interpreting the Total Quarterback Rating.

Christian Ponder
Passer rating: 114.2
QBR: 90.0
Action plays: 42
Comment: Ponder's QBR was a career high, mostly because he opened with a game-changing play -- a 54-yard deep post to receiver Jarius Wright -- to put his team in position for an early lead. After that, he was efficient and nearly mistake-free. Although he didn't attempt a pass that traveled more than 14 yards downfield after the big throw, Ponder completed eight of 10 third-down passes overall. He didn't commit a turnover and took only one sack. How successful can the Vikings be when Ponder simply plays at an average level? This season, they are 5-0 when his QBR is above 50 (considered exactly average). They are 1-4 when it has been below 50.

Matthew Stafford
Passer rating: 104.2
QBR: 65.9
Action plays: 50
Comment: The entire Lions offense had a rough go of it in the first half, and Stafford's role was throwing a first-quarter interception and taking two sacks on third down. He rallied in the second half, completing six of seven passes that traveled at least 15 yards in the air, but by then the Lions were too far behind for him to fashion one of his signature fourth-quarter comebacks.

Jason Campbell
Passer rating: 70.9
QBR: 21.7
Action plays: 23
Comment: During the final 11 minutes, 45 seconds Sunday night, Campbell was too careful. With the Bears trailing by a touchdown, he attempted only two passes that traveled more than 10 yards in the air. Both fell incomplete. The Texans also knocked him off stride with their blitz, against which he completed only three of 10 passes -- including none of his four when the Texans rushed a defensive back. Campbell looked uncomfortable throughout, and he implied afterwards he would be better with a week's worth of practice with the first team. We'll see if he gets it this week.

Jay Cutler
Passer rating: 16.7
QBR: 20.7
Action plays: 17
Comment: In the rain and wind Sunday night, it was surprising to see Cutler and the Chicago Bears throw as much as they did in the first half. Cutler completed half of his 14 throws, but two others were intercepted. Cutler did have three nice scrambles that totaled 37 yards, and he was out of the pocket on the play that presumably caused his interception. But the blame for that hit doesn't go to Cutler for recklessly scrambling or the Bears for calling a pass. It was a flat-out illegal hit by Houston linebacker Tim Dobbins.

» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 10:

Big-time clash: As we noted earlier this week, Sunday night's game at Soldier Field will feature a rare matchup in the second half of the season. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, it will be only the fifth time since 1970 that a pair of one-loss teams have met in Week 10 or later. Ten of ESPN's 14 experts are predicting a Bears victory, but the oddsmakers have made the Bears slim 1.5-point favorites playing at home. One reason: The Texans have not been prone to the kind of mistakes the Bears have capitalized on this season. The Bears lead the NFL with 28 takeaways, but the Texans have the fewest turnovers (six). That's not good news for those who hope the Texans will collapse under the pressure of a prime-time game at Soldier Field. It could happen, but so far the Texans are 3-0 on the road this season.

The running game: The Texans technically have the NFL's second-best run defense because they are allowing an average of 81.9 rushing yards per game. But it's only fair to point out that opponents have attempted the second-fewest running plays against them (165), probably because of early deficits. Opponents' 4.0 yards per carry is tied for No. 22 overall in the league. So while we discussed the possibility that the Bears could see some favorable early looks in their passing game, there is every reason to think they should test the Texans' run defense with Matt Forte and Michael Bush. (Remember, the NFC North is once again the Black and Blue division!) Forte has broken free for runs of 46 and 39 yards over the past three weeks. If he or Bush scores a rushing touchdown Sunday, it will be the first on the ground the Texans' defense has given up this season.

Paring down: Over the past six weeks, the Detroit Lions have simplified their offense in ways that are obvious to knowledgeable outside observers. In preparing for Sunday's game at the Metrodome, Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Alan Williams said the Lions have "narrowed down" their offensive menu. "They've streamlined what they're doing," Williams said. "Not a lot of formations like we saw last time [in Week 4]. They are sticking to a package and doing that well." That doesn't mean the Lions have been more conservative. In fact, quarterback Matthew Stafford has nine attempts that traveled at least 21 yards in the air over the past three weeks. It just means they have gotten back to one of offensive coordinator Scott Linehan's most basic tenets: having the ability to run a wide variety of plays with the same personnel packages.

Preparing for Reiff: We've spent plenty of time discussing the Lions' increasing frequency and impact of using offensive lineman Riley Reiff as a sixth offensive lineman/tight end. It has shifted from a novelty to a significant part of the Lions' offense, and the Vikings spent considerable time discussing and preparing for the look this week. Williams said: "[T]his might be a stretch in some sense, but he's a little bit like Adrian Peterson in that you can't simulate him in practice. Everyone thinks with Adrian that, 'Hey these are just designed plays for him and we stop this.' But when you get in a live situation, Adrian Peterson is a different deal. That's the same thing with the extra lineman coming in. He does a great job. He's athletic, he gets his pads down and he's going to be a handful." That's high praise from an opponent.

Peterson's power: What's most amazing about Peterson's 458-yard spurt over the past three weeks has been how it's largely come against defenses with at least one extra defender near the line of scrimmage. How is Peterson defeating those schemes? The answer is nothing more complicated than flat-out breaking tackles. Not only is Peterson leading the NFL with 515 yards after contact, 156 yards more than the next-best running back, but he is also averaging 3.1 yards per rush after first contact. The Lions have every reason to bring at least one of their safeties into the box to defend him, but if Peterson continues his current surge, they'll have to be prepared to gang-tackle him.

(Statistics courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information unless otherwise noted.)

No NFC North teams appeared on John Clayton's list of the NFL's 10 worst contracts, and I really can't come up with an obvious nomination. There are no abominable contracts in this division at the moment, at least none any team entered by choice that will limit its flexibility moving forward.

Some of you might note the five-year, $25 million contract the Minnesota Vikings gave tight end John Carlson last spring. Carlson has played sparingly (27.2 percent of snaps), caught three passes and is currently sidelined by a concussion. But as Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com points out, the Vikings could void his contract after this season (provided he is not still injured) for a modest $4 million cap hit.

What Clayton's project did bring to mind is that the NFC North is primed for three monster-truck contracts that will be the types of deals that entire salary caps are structured around. For different reasons, quarterbacks Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford are all closer to new contracts than you might have realized.

Cutler's deal with the Chicago Bears expires after the 2013 season. He's making $8.2 million this year and is due to make $8.9 million next season. Would the Bears go into 2013 with their franchise quarterback in a free-agent year? It wouldn't be ideal, and if they want to avoid it, they would need to address it this offseason.

We've discussed Rodgers' situation several times. He is signed through the 2014 season but has obviously outperformed a deal that will pay him $9.75 million in 2013 and $11 million in 2014. You would assume it's a matter of when, not if, Rodgers gets a new deal. The current benchmark is the five-year, $100 million contract the New Orleans Saints gave quarterback Drew Brees.

Stafford's situation, meanwhile, is no less urgent even though he is technically signed through 2015. The final year of his deal is voidable and, more importantly, Stafford is due to count $20.320 million against the Detroit Lions' 2013 salary cap after two years of renegotiations. The Lions could conceivably deal with a cap number that high, but you wonder if they'll seek an extension in order to lower his cap hit over the next few years. They will have a busy offseason given the pending free agency of seven starters: cornerback Chris Houston, safety Louis Delmas, linebacker DeAndre Levy, defensive tackle Corey Williams, right tackle Gosder Cherilus, linebacker Justin Durant and place-kicker Jason Hanson.

Investing in a franchise quarterback is usually a sound policy, but it'll be costly in each instance.

CHICAGO -- It's late and I'm loopy, so let's play a silly little game just for the heck of it. If the NFL season ended Monday night, three NFC North teams would be playoff bound. The fourth would own a top-10 draft choice.

Commissioner Roger Goodell would never call off a season after seven weeks, of course. (Think of all the lost ticket revenue!) We're not even at the season's midpoint, but already, I think, we're beginning to see some clarity in this division. The Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings have each put themselves in position for the division title, while the Detroit Lions are on the brink of 2012 extinction.

That's right. After a 13-7 defeat of the Lions in a game that wasn't that close, the Bears have the second-best record (5-1) in the NFC. According to the updated standings, the Vikings (5-2) rank fifth and the Packers (4-3) sixth in the conference. The Lions, on the other hand, have more losses at 2-4 than 24 of the NFL's 32 teams.

I realize there is more football left to be played this season than has been played. But this is the time of year when patterns emerge and stories start getting written, and Monday night we saw the Bears emerge from their bye as sharp as they entered it. They forced four turnovers, three in the red zone, and were 30 seconds away from their first shutout in three years. And the Lions looked no different than the team that has won this season only when mounting a fourth-quarter comeback.

"This was two evenly matched teams," Lions coach Jim Schwartz said afterward. "When you're playing a good team like Chicago, one that's leading the NFC North, we're on the road, we're not going to win the way we played."

To be clear, the Lions had a chance to steal this game largely because the Bears' offense slowed considerably after quarterback Jay Cutler suffered bruised ribs late in the second quarter. But there was never a time when I thought the Lions were matching the Bears blow for blow, as evenly matched teams do.

Evidence? Bears cornerback Charles Tillman did the impossible, matching up all night with Lions receiver Calvin Johnson and limiting him to three catches on the 11 passes he was targeted on. The Bears surprised the Lions by blitzing more often than usual, on 28.8 percent of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks, according to ESPN's Stats and Information. And the Bears' two-deep safety look didn't give up a pass longer than 23 yards.

The Lions, in fact, absorbed most of the blows Monday. Bears defenders stripped the ball from running backs Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell in the red zone. And in a sequence that defined the current situations for both teams, the Bears fought off the Lions at their most vulnerable moment.

It began when Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh sacked Cutler violently but legally -- and cleanly, according to all involved -- with 4 minutes, 52 seconds left in the second quarter.

Cutler missed five plays while getting the injury attended to. (Asked if he received a pain-killing injection at halftime, Cutler said: "We did some stuff back here in the back room.") When he returned to open the third quarter, it was clear Cutler couldn't step into and drive his throws. He was short to tight end Kyle Adams on second down and managed a pair of 2-yard passes to tailback Matt Forte before the Bears punted.

"It was on my right side," Cutler said. "I couldn't really follow through. Couldn't get through the ball. It had an impact on our play calling, but defense was playing so well, we thought we could ride it out a little."

Still, at that moment -- with Cutler debilitated and the Lions' defense seemingly energized -- you could sense the potential for a turning point. But the Lions' Stefan Logan muffed the ensuing punt, and three minutes later the Bears took a 13-0 lead that stood until the final seconds of the game.

Schwartz kept it positive afterward, saying: "We can battle back. We've battled back in games, we can do it in the season." But the Lions now have six very similar games on their resume -- slow starts, special teams miscues and last-second dashes -- that suggest they have some fundamental issues they might not be equipped to address immediately.

"If I had all the answers," Stafford said, "it would be nice."

If the Lions seem stuck in a rut, the Bears appear as well-rounded and disciplined as they've ever been under coach Lovie Smith. Tillman and linebacker Lance Briggs are having All-Pro seasons, and Monday they had reason to rally around their quarterback for positive reasons.

You might not realize it, but the Bears are 10-1 in Cutler's past 11 starts dating back to last season. While there was never a (rational) reason to doubt his toughness, Monday night felt like the moment when he earned his stripes in Chicago.

"That's what you should have as your Chicago Bear quarterback," Smith said. "And he does it time after time."

Put it all together, and the Bears are in their best-case scenario after six games. The Vikings and Packers aren't far behind. The Lions are on the short end of things. But no division is perfect, right?

 

CHICAGO -- As 4-1 starts go, the Chicago Bears' pre-bye success has been mostly unmemorable. Fun, yes, dominating at times, like the second half in Jacksonville, absolutely.

But the most noteworthy game has been the worse-than-the-final-score drubbing in the road-to-the-Super Bowl-is-farther-than-it-appears loss to Green Bay at Lambeau Field.

That’s not to devalue the early dominance of the defense or the impressive start by Brandon Marshall and by proxy, general manager Phil Emery, who did what his predecessor could not, get Jay Cutler some help at receiver.

I’m not glossing over victories versus Indianapolis, St. Louis, Jacksonville and Dallas either. All were important to the process. But the first five games were just the prologue. Now we’re getting to the real story. This is how it should be.

With the Detroit Lions coming in for a nationally televised game, you have my permission to froth.

Read the entire column.

CHICAGO BEARS vs. DETROIT LIONS

When: 7:30 p.m. Monday | TV: ESPN, locally: WCIU-TV
RADIO: 780 AM, WBBM & 105.9 FM; WLEY (107.9 FM)

CHICAGO BEARS (4-1)

Coach: Lovie Smith | Record including playoffs: 75-58

Career record (including playoffs) vs. Jim Schwartz: | 5-1 Career record vs. Lions:11-5

Last week: Idle

Key stat: The Bears have scored five touchdowns on returns in 2012, including four TDs in the past two games. But the last time they faced the Lions, the Bears put points on the board with all three phases with a Devin Hester 82-yard punt return, two defensive touchdowns (not to mention six takeaways) and offense.

Offense rank: 20th (346.2 ypg) | Defense rank: third (291.2 ypg).

Offensive leader: Receiver Brandon Marshall averages seven catches per game and 99.2 yards receiving, which ranks as the highest average in franchise history. If Marshall keeps up the pace, he'll shatter the single-season franchise receiving record while recording a career-high 1,587 yards. With three 100-yard receiving games, Marshall is already tied for ninth in franchise history.

Defensive leader: Defensive end Julius Peppers has been a sheer terror to the Lions and averages more than a sack per outing against them. In eight games against the Lions, Peppers has posted 10 sacks while forcing five fumbles. In the 2010 opener, Peppers knocked Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford out of the game with a shoulder injury.

STREAKS


• Jay Cutler remains undefeated (24-0) when he finishes a game with a passer rating of 100 or better.

• If Marshall gains 85 receiving yards against the Lions, he'll have the most yards through the first six games in franchise history.

• Matt Forte needs one more 100-yard rushing performance to tie Neal Anderson (14) for the third most in franchise history.

• Lance Briggs needs one more INT return for a TD to move into a tie with Bobby Bell and Derrick Brooks for the most in NFL history by a linebacker.

DETROIT LIONS (2-3)

Coach: Jim Schwartz | Record: 20-34

Career head-to-head record vs. Smith: 1-5 | Career record vs. Bears: 1-5

Last week: Defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 26-23 in overtime.

Key stat: The Lions entered Week 6 as one of just three teams to hold top-10 rankings in offense and defense. In three of five games, Detroit has held offenses to fewer than 80 yards rushing, and the Lions have given up just eight total touchdowns, with one coming on the ground and seven through the air.

Offense rank: Second (419.6 ypg) | Defense rank: Ninth (324 ypg).

Offensive leader: Stafford ranked in the top five of all six major passing categories in 2011, joining Drew Brees and Tom Brady as the only other quarterbacks to accomplish that feat last season. In a contest in which he tossed his franchise-record third game-winning touchdown pass against the Eagles, Stafford posted a 106.3 passer rating in the fourth quarter and overtime.

Defensive leader: Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh has generated just 2½ sacks this season, but he's been a disruptive force teamed with DE Cliff Avril, DT Nick Fairley and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch. Suh is tied for the most sacks by a defensive tackles over the past three years (16½).

STREAKS

• Detroit's 73 fourth-quarter points ranks as the second most in the NFL. The Lions lead the league in total offense in the fourth quarter (947 yards), passing yards (790), completions and is also tied for the most passing touchdowns (6).

• Calvin Johnson needs 69 yards receiving to tie Johnnie Morton (6,499 yards) for second in franchise history.

• OT Jeff Backus has started 181 consecutive regular season games, and his streak for starts ranks No. 3 among active players and sixth since 1970 among linemen.

The on-field incidents belie the weeklong muzzle job performed by the players in the buildup to a showdown on ESPN's "Monday Night Football" between the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions at Soldier Field.

While the teams claimed mutual respect, it's clear they're not fond of one another, a sentiment expected to manifest itself on the field like it has so many other times in recent meetings.

"Just because games are chippy doesn't mean the teams don't respect each other and don't want the emphasis to be the play on the field," Lions coach Jim Schwartz said. "There are a lot of great players that are going to play in this game on both sides of the ball, and I think these guys know each other very well. The schemes are well known. We have a good idea what they're going to do. They have a good idea what we're going to do. The more you know somebody, probably the better opportunity there is for guys to push and shove a little bit."

There has been opportunity aplenty in this series for sure.

Detroit defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh snapped off Jay Cutler's helmet during a 37-13 Bears win at Soldier Field in November. That was a game in which six players received fines totaling $62,500, including quarterback Matthew Stafford ($7,500) and cornerback D.J. Moore ($15,000) who were involved in an incident that led to an on-field brawl between the teams. Officials also flagged Lance Briggs for a crushing hit on Lions receiver Calvin Johnson, but the linebacker didn't receive a fine.

During the first meeting between the teams last season -- a 24-13 Lions win at Ford Field on Oct. 10 -- former Bears safety Brandon Meriweather received a $25,000 fine for a vicious hit on receiver Nate Burleson, while cornerback Charles Tillman was docked $7,500 for a horse-collar tackle on Jahvid Best.

Rewind to two years ago, and there's the incident in which Suh shoved Cutler hard in the back during a 24-20 Bears win, drawing a $15,000 fine from the league.


"They're a tough defense, they play hard," Cutler said. "They tackle hard, they rush the passer hard. They do everything full speed, so it's a challenge. With anybody in our division, we're not going to like them and they're not going to like us."

But Bears coach Lovie Smith made it clear that respect is there.

"With today's technology, you don't have to remind guys [about] an awful lot," Smith said. "It's not like I have to bring out the George Halas pep talk to get them ready to play Detroit. We realize what's at stake. We know about the rivalry we have with them, but it's still going to be decided on the football field."

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LAKE FOREST, Ill. -- A predictable pattern has emerged for the Detroit Lions through five games of the regular season: trailing in the fourth quarter.

The Lions have faced a fourth-quarter deficit in every game so far this year. They were able to squeak out victories against St. Louis and Philadelphia thanks in large part to quarterback Matthew Stafford, who owns the league's sixth-best fourth-quarter passer rating at 103.9. Jay Cutler is the highest-rated fourth quarter NFL quarterback at 118.4.

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LAKE FOREST, Ill. -- Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford said Thursday he's moved on since he played a role in starting a sidelines-clearing scuffle with the Chicago Bears during a loss at Soldier Field last season.

Following an interception, Stafford grabbed Bears nickel back D.J. Moore by the back of the helmet and slammed him to the turf during Chicago's 37-13 victory. Moore got up and retaliated as both teams rushed to the scene. Moore got ejected and was fined $15,000, while Stafford got hit with a $7,500 fine.

Stafford said he won't be thinking about the incident when he and the Lions return to Soldier Field to face the Bears on Monday Night Football.

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The Chicago Bears went into their bye week on a high with three straight wins, including two decisive wins in their past two games.

History shows the Bears should be in line for a good performance when they get back at it against the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football. Lovie Smith's Bears have won eight of 10 MNF games during his tenure, and they are 5-3 after a bye during that span.

But will they be in for a letdown on national television against a Detroit Lions team coming off an emotional road overtime victory over the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday? Our panel weighs in on that and more:

Fact or Fiction: Coming off the bye week, the Bears could be in for a letdown against the Lions on Monday Night Football.

Jeff Dickerson: Fiction: A letdown against the Lions? Not a chance. Maybe a letdown would be possible if the Bears were scheduled to play a bad team outside of their division, but not Detroit. Make no mistake about it, the Bears don't like the Lions. It's personal. From Ndamakung Suh smashing Jay Cutler in the back with a forearm in 2010, to Suh ripping off Cutler's helmet last year before the bench-clearing brawl that started because Matthew Stafford delivered a cheap shot to D.J. Moore, there is absolutely no love lost between the Bears or Lions. That is why a letdown is impossible. The Bears could lose the game, but it won't be because they failed to show up on Monday night.

Michael C. Wright: Fact. That's not to say it's going to happen, but the potential definitely exists with this team coming off a long layoff just when it seemed things were rolling on both sides of the ball during a 41-3 demolition of the Jacksonville Jaguars on Oct. 7. History, however, says the Bears handle business on Monday night. Under Lovie Smith, the Bears have won five of their last six after a week off. Besides that, the team hasn't lost to the Lions at home since 2007. It's also worth factoring in the club's 8-2 record on Monday Night Football under Smith. So, yes, it's a fact there's a potential for a letdown against the Lions. But I really don't see that happening.

Scott Powers: Fiction. The Bears may not roll as they have in recent weeks, but that will have more to do with the Lions. Detroit isn't an awful team. At 2-3, the Lions have won two games by no more than four points and haven't lost by more than eight points. If the Bears don't show up, they could very well lose. But I don't anticipate that happening. Smith's teams have normally been prepared follow their bye. The Bears have won five of the last six years following their bye week.

Jon Greenberg: Fiction. The Bears, as they should be, are led by the defense, emotionally and on the field. This is a group that knows how to prepare and play after a week off, so there's little reason to worry about over-confidence or anything like that. As if Smith would let his team get puffy-chested. Since Smith took over, the Bears are 5-3 after a bye with two losses coming in his first two seasons. Chicago has won five of six on Monday Night football. In the last two seasons, the Bears have won after a bye, knocking off Philadelphia and Buffalo, both on the road. I think the week off can only help the offense, which took a positive step forward in Jacksonville.

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