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Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Bulls' chances of a comeback from 3-1

By Neil Paine

After the first four games of a best-of-seven series, the only way a matchup can be more lopsided than 3-1 is for the winner to have finished their opponents off in a sweep. The 3-1 margin carries the lowest series leverage index of any active situation after four games; if the two opponents are evenly matched, the leading team is going to win the series approximately 86 percent of the time, even if they have to play Game 5 on the road (a number that becomes 90 percent if Game 5 is at home).

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