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Half of the league was off in Week 5, and Ohio State maintained its perch atop the league, so we didn't make too many changes in the projections.

Wisconsin is among the nation's best two-loss teams and could run the table the rest of the way, putting itself in position for a possible BCS at-large berth. But right now, it's still hard to put two Big Ten teams in BCS bowls, at least until we see more from Northwestern and Michigan.

Illinois and Iowa were two of the three eligible Big Ten teams to miss the postseason in 2012. Although the Illini and Hawkeyes have some work left to go bowling, we expect both to be somewhere warm in late December or early January. Tim Beckman's Illini (3-1) already have exceeded last year's wins total, while the Hawkeyes are 4-1 with a bunch of momentum heading into the meat of their Big Ten schedule.

Minnesota remains in the projections, but just barely. Although the Gophers need only two more wins to become eligible, they play a brutal schedule the rest of the way and didn't look ready for Big Ten action on Saturday against Iowa. It may take a signature win for Jerry Kill's crew to go bowling once again.

Rose Bowl presented by VIZIO, Jan. 1: Ohio State
Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1: Michigan
Outback Bowl, Jan. 1: Wisconsin
TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl, Jan. 1: Nebraska
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, Dec. 28: Northwestern
Texas Bowl, Dec. 27: Michigan State
Heart of Dallas Bowl, Jan. 1: Iowa
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, Dec. 26: Illinois
At-large bowl: Minnesota

Nonconference play is just about finished in the Big Ten, save for a few more stray games. The last two-thirds of the season will really determine who ends where in the postseason.

But, as we do every week, we're attempting to project those bowl bids now.

We won't be surprised if the Big Ten receives a BCS at-large berth because, well, that's what happens most seasons. But it's hard to justify giving this league two BCS spots right now, as Michigan's struggles move the Wolverines out of the mix. Also, leagues such as the Pac-12 and ACC seem better positioned for two BCS berths, along with the SEC, which definitely will get two.

Although Wisconsin and Northwestern have been more consistent than Michigan so far, we don't expect the Capital One Bowl folks to pass up the Wolverines, who last played in Orlando in Lloyd Carr's final game as coach (Jan. 1, 2008). Wisconsin hasn't been to the Sunshine State since 2009 after a lengthy run of Florida bowl appearances. The Outback Bowl gladly will scoop up the Badgers.

Northwestern won't make a repeat appearance in Jacksonville, so we like Nebraska to go there, while the Wildcats head to the desert. Michigan State, Minnesota and Iowa round out the Big Ten bowl tie-ins, while we expect Illinois to grab an at-large spot. Indiana's 2-2 mark in nonconference play will make reaching the postseason a challenge.

Things will change during the next few weeks as there really isn't much separating teams such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Northwestern and Michigan State.

Without further ado, the projections ...

Rose Bowl presented by VIZIO, Jan. 1: Ohio State
Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1: Michigan
Outback Bowl, Jan. 1: Wisconsin
TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl, Jan. 1: Nebraska
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, Dec. 28: Northwestern
Texas Bowl, Dec. 27: Michigan State
Heart of Dallas Bowl, Jan. 1: Iowa
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, Dec. 26: Minnesota
At-large bowl: Illinois

We're officially a quarter of the way through the Big Ten regular season, and the action Saturday taught us more about the league's teams than any other day had. Time to make some educated guesses -- and they are guesses -- on the conference's bowl lineup.

No changes at the top, as Ohio State strengthened its claim as the Big Ten's top team with a convincing win at Cal. We had been projecting Michigan as a BCS at-large team, but the Wolverines sure didn't look like one in escaping at home against Akron. However, we're willing to bet that was a Notre Dame hangover and that Michigan will continue to improve. Plus, BCS at-large bids are less about who deserves it and more about which teams have the most desirable brand names, and Michigan will be in high demand if it can go at least 10-2.

We like how Wisconsin performed at Arizona State, and Northwestern continues to impress. The first real change comes in our Gator Bowl slot; we've moved Michigan State up there and dropped Nebraska. Although the Huskers' schedule should still lead to a lot of wins, Nebraska fans might be tired of going to Florida. A Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl appearance would be viewed as disappointing, but after the way the team played in the second half against UCLA, the Huskers can't be too choosy. Michigan State also has a more favorable schedule than Nebraska.

We've also got both Illinois and Iowa in this week. Both teams should -- emphasis on should -- be 3-1 after Week 4, putting them in good position to reach bowl eligibility. Whether either can get three wins in conference play is questionable, but the Fighting Illini have been very competitive, and the Hawkeyes at least have an identity with their run game.

So behold our latest bowl projections, sure to change a million times between now and December:

Rose Bowl presented by VIZIO, Jan. 1: Ohio State
BCS at-large: Michigan
Capital One, Jan. 1: Wisconsin
Outback, Jan. 1: Northwestern
TaxSlayer.com Gator, Jan. 1: Michigan State
Buffalo Wild Wings, Dec. 28: Nebraska
Texas, Dec. 27: Minnesota
Heart of Dallas, Jan. 1: Illinois
Little Caesars Pizza, Dec. 26: Iowa