ESPN Men's Basketball

Editor’s Note: This month, ESPN Insider’s college basketball and recruiting experts are teaming up to examine how 15 of the nation’s best recruiting classes will fit in with their teams in the 2013-14 season. Today's featured program: Marquette , which Dana O'Neil delves more into here. Check out the Nation blog each morning for a corresponding post on the key returnee for each of the 15 teams.

Marquette’s Davante Gardner is listed at 6-foot-8, 290 pounds, but he’s probably hovered above 300 throughout his career.

Despite his big frame, Gardner was a strong presence for Buzz Williams’ squad last season. He averaged 11.5 PPG and made 83.5 percent of his free throw attempts. He was ranked fifth in offensive efficiency (122.4 rating) among players who’d used at least 24 percent of their team’s possessions, per KenPom.com. He shot 59 percent from the floor.

Yep, the Golden Eagles were embarrassed in that 55-39 loss to Syracuse in the Elite Eight. But Gardner, who went 6-for-9 and recorded eight rebounds, had 14 points.From Feb. 25 until the end of last season, Gardner shot below 66 percent in just one outing (1-for-4 against Butler in the third round of the NCAA tournament).

Vander Blue’s baffling decision to enter the NBA draft certainly affected projections for Marquette.

Still, Williams’ squad returns Jamil Wilson and Todd Mayo. Chris Otule has applied for a sixth year of eligibility. And Marquette’s incoming freshman class is ranked 11^th by RecruitingNation. The reigning Big East tri-champ is not in rebuilding mode, even though Blue’s absence and the graduation of Trent Lockett present voids within the team’s perimeter presence that less experienced players will fill.

But the Golden Eagles will boast one of the nation’s top frontcourts, especially if Otule returns.

Gardner, the program’s most significant returnee, is a critical element in that prediction.We all recognize Gardner’s potential (see 26 points, 7-for-7 from the field, eight rebounds in Feb. 25 win over Syracuse). He was a member of the all-East Region squad in the Big Dance. He earned the Big East’s sixth man of the year honor, too. And he also averaged just 21.5 minutes per game. Consistency was a challenge throughout the year, although he finished forcefully.

This offseason is significant for Gardner. He has a chance to guide Marquette back to the NCAA tournament and the top of new Big East.

But Williams needs the big man to be in great shape so he can log more minutes. It wouldn’t be the first time that a hefty player slimmed down to help himself and his team. Glen “Big Baby” Davis was the size of a small SUV his freshman season at LSU.

By transforming his body and improving his conditioning, however, he’s made millions in the NBA. A similar makeover could lead to comparable strides for Gardner, too.

The demands are far more than physical, though. He’s a senior now, a leader by default in most programs. It’s an important quality for any upperclassman. He will demonstrate leadership with his focus and commitment to his overall game and conditioning this offseason. If he shows up to next season’s first practices in better shape, then I’m sure his teammates will have more respect for him.

That latter adjustment will also magnify his defensive impact because his position features lengthy, agile athletes with the quickness to maneuver around him. Enhanced conditioning will make Gardner a better and more versatile defender.

His rebounding numbers must improve, too. He has to be more explosive.

Let’s say Gardner is the same guy in 2013-14 that he was last year. That’s sufficient. He was one of the Big East’s top big men. He was productive and efficient.

But he hasn’t reached his ceiling.

There’s another level packed inside that large frame. We watched him dominate in stretches last season. He can do that again.

The truth, however, is that he can do much more for Marquette if he’s focused in the coming months.

Coach Mike Krzyzewski makes a lot of money.

That’s not surprising. Compensation for private-school coaches is not disclosed the way salaries are for coaches at public schools due to a bunch of legal stuff that I will not attempt to explain. “Private school” essentially means “we don’t have to tell you anything we don’t want to tell you.”

So although we always assume coaches at private institutions make as much, if not more, than their peers at public universities, we’re never 100 percent sure.

Tax records, however, show all and they’re public -- even for private schools. And by obtaining those documents, USA Today learned that Coach K made $9.7 million in total compensation in 2011.

That's not a typo.

That’s Lil’ Wayne money.

That’s a record, according to USA Today:

The amount is the greatest single-year compensation total for a college athletics coach since USA TODAY Sports began tracking the pay of football and men's basketball coaches in 2006. Louisville men's basketball coach Rick Pitino received a little more than $8.9 million in total pay in 2010-11.

Krzyzewski earned more than $7.2 million in the 2010 calendar year, and just less than $4.7 million in 2009.

The new return shows that Krzyzewski received:

• $1,978,401 in base compensation, nearly the same as in 2010.
• $5,642,574 in bonus and incentive compensation, nearly $1.9 million more than in 2010.
• $1,982,097 in retirement and other deferred compensation, a little over $500,000 more than in 2010.
• $59,616 in other reportable compensation such as family travel.
• $19,344 in non-taxable benefits.

As a private school, Duke is not required to make public its employment contracts.

Duke Vice President for Public Affairs and Government Relations Michael Schoenfeld, who provided the return in response to a request from USA Today Sports, said the university does not comment on individual contracts.

However, in addressing Krzyzewski's overall compensation, he said: "By any measure, Coach K is one of the greatest, if not the greatest, college coach of all-time. This takes into account his 33 years of service at Duke, his unparalleled success as a head coach -- in 2011 he became the winningest (NCAA Division I) head coach of all-time -- his commitment to the academic achievement of the student-athletes and to Duke University."

Mike Krzyzewski is arguably the greatest coach of all time. He has four national championships and more Division I wins than any coach in history. Under him, the Blue Devils have been national title contenders (or winners) in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and 2010s. Next season, he’ll have a national-title-contending squad led by Jabari Parker, a McDonald’s All-American and future lottery pick.

That’s an impressive legacy and true longevity.

But that’s a lot of dough, especially the portion that’s based on bonuses and incentives ($5.6 million).

“Hey, Coach K. Thanks for showing up today. Here’s another $100,000 ‘thanks for showing up bonus.’”

It’s still difficult to argue against Coach K’s compensation (nearly $2 million is deferred) if the barometer is based solely on what his peers currently receive.

But the discussion can’t end there.

I was all set to argue that Coach K deserves the cash, and suggest that there’s no reason to be upset about it. And then my man Eamonn Brennan chimed in and reminded me that Parker and his teammates won’t get a slice of that.

It’s a notable contrast.

Coach K makes nearly $10 million and the players who’ve fueled his success -- and escalating income -- get nothing beyond tuition, room and board. And that whole myth about college athletes having all of their expenses paid was challenged by a National College Players Association study, which revealed that the average athlete on a full ride paid more than $3,000 in out-of-pocket expenses to attend college during the 2010-11 school year.

So the debate will persist. It has now reached the courts with former UCLA star Ed O’Bannon leading a lawsuit against the NCAA, which involves compensation for athletes.

Coach K will continue to earn nearly $10 million per year. Probably more in the future. Parker, who will likely stay for just one year, will receive the opportunity to compete for a Division I program. That exposure will be vital in his mission to make a living in the NBA.

Without Parker, however, Coach K and his colleagues would not warrant the seven-figure salaries they currently receive.

So the idea of Coach K earning nearly $10 million and Parker & Co. potentially leaving Duke with debt is not easy to digest.

An unprecedented buzz greeted NC State as it prepared for the 2012-13 campaign. Following a Sweet 16 run the previous season, the Wolfpack returned the most critical pieces of that rally.

C.J. Leslie decided to take his talents back to NC State. Lorenzo Brown looked the part of an All-American point guard. Richard Howell would anchor the paint. And McDonald’s All-American Rodney Purvis would help, too.

That was the mindset of voters who pegged NC State as the favorite to win the ACC last season.

That didn’t happen.

The Wolfpack finished 11-7 in conference play, good for fourth place. Mark Gottfried’s squad lost to Temple in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

And then, things really fell apart.

Leslie turned pro. Purvis transferred to Connecticut.

In all, Gottfried lost five of his top six scorers.

But the silver lining within the tumult was the return of 6-foot-8 forward T.J. Warren. The former McDonald’s All-American toyed with the idea of playing in the NBA but ultimately decided to return.

He’s the only returning player who averaged double figures in scoring last year.

Last season, Warren was just a young reserve who boosted the talent pool of a team that appeared to have it all.

He’ll enter 2013-14 as the leader of a youthful program facing a sharp turn in projections compared to a year ago.

Warren, a member of the ACC’s all-freshman team (media and coaches), could be the most experienced player in a starting lineup that will be forced to rely on the nation’s 14th-ranked incoming class per RecruitingNation.

Anthony Barber, BeeJay Anya and Kyle Washington are all top-100 kids who will probably start for NC State next season. They’ll look to Warren, a second-year man, for guidance.

It’s a dramatic and unexpected switch for the sophomore. But he’s equipped for it. On the court.

Warren showcased his abilities in multiple matchups last season. He had 31 points and 13 rebounds in a Feb. 19 win against Florida State. He registered 12 points or more in nine of the team’s final 11 matchups.

He shot 52 percent from the 3-point line and 62 percent from the field.

Warren won’t have to carry this program alone.

Veteran guard and LSU transfer Ralston Turner (12.3 PPG in 2010-11) will certainly help.

But this is Warren’s team. The Wolfpack will go as far he takes it.

He’s a durable inside-outside threat that any program would covet. He and his young teammates, however, will enter a gauntlet soon.

The ACC could be the toughest league in America next season. Pitt, Notre Dame and Syracuse will elevate the conference’s profile. But their arrivals also will make life for rebuilding programs such as NC State more challenging.

The grind of ACC play will be a true test for Gottfried’s young crew. And NC State must endure this stretch without much experience.

That’s why Warren’s leadership is just as significant as his production.

An NCAA tournament bid would be considered a surprising success based on the squad’s inexperience.

Warren has to be the anchor. Through everything.

No player in the ACC is facing more pressure right now.

Cyclical success is the easiest brand of achievement in college basketball, especially in the one-and-done era.

Unless you’re a true powerhouse, then downturns are an expected component with any program.

Jim Larranaga did enough with Miami last season to earn the Associated Press national coach of the year honors as the Hurricanes achieved and held a top-five ranking throughout the season with defensive prowess and experience.

But Shane Larkin’s decision to turn pro magnified the reality of Miami basketball as 2013-14 approaches. The squad that topped Duke and North Carolina to earn the ACC’s regular season and tournament titles will be a much different assembly next season.

Larranaga’s top six scorers from last season are gone.

His recruiting class (former four-star guard Deandre Burnett is Larranaga’s top incoming recruit) failed to crack to the top-40 overall in RecruitingNation's rankings.

So Miami has turned to the transfer market to rebuild.

Former Kansas State point guard Angel Rodriguez, who will seek a hardship waiver from the NCAA, hopes to be available for the Hurricanes next season.

And he’s not the only “free agent” (Read Jason King’s excellent story about transfer market) that Miami covets.

From Michael Casagrande of the Sun-Sentinel:

The Miami basketball program already has one high-profile transfer joining the program. The Hurricanes could land two more transfers with an eye on the 2014-15 season.

Alabama's Trevor Lacey and Texas' Sheldon McClellan both are weighing enrolling at Miami after announcing they are leaving their current schools. Unlike incoming guard Angel Rodriguez, Lacey and McClellan won't qualify for waivers granting them immediate eligibility and will have to sit out the upcoming season.

Rodriguez is leaving Kansas State and picked Miami to be closer to his family, potentially qualifying for a hardship waiver. He played at Miami's Krop High. There is no timeline for the NCAA decision on his waiver request.

Both of the other guards still considering the 'Canes have big-time basketball pedigrees.

There are obviously a variety of views on this tactic.

Transfers arrive with limited eligibility. Some leave their former schools for legitimate reasons. Others pose risks for the new programs because of red-flagged stops at their old homes.

Still, they give a coach experienced players who can help the program win now.

But sustained success often demands the development of young players who can learn the system and ultimately lead it throughout multiple seasons.

Larranaga, however, wouldn’t be the first coach to take this approach, if he essentially mines the transfer market for new talent.

Fred Hoiberg kicked off his tenure by luring a group of transfers who eventually led his team to the NCAA tournament two years ago. Wichita State reached the Final Four with the help of former Oregon transfer Malcolm Armstead and multiple junior college prospects.

So recruiting and rebuilding aren’t one-size-fits-all methods. There will always be variation.

Winning is what matters. To do that, you need talent.

Miami did not sign a top-100 kid (RecruitingNation) in 2012 or 2013. So it appears as though the school will continue to seek transfers as it tries to evolve into a program that’s recognized for its continuity, not just one impressive run.

Editor's Note: This month, ESPN Insider's college basketball and recruiting experts are teaming up to examine how 15 of the nation's best recruiting classes will fit in with their teams in the 2013-14 season. Today's featured program: North Carolina. Check out the Nation blog each morning for a corresponding post on the key returnee for each of the 15 teams.

A few years ago, I watched this skinny kid from Iowa maneuver around his prep peers with ease during an elite AAU tournament. He didn’t have a college body yet, but he clearly had the tools any college coach would want his point guard to possess.

But Marcus Paige, like any freshman point guard, endured a variety of struggles last season.

Paige was thrust into a nontraditional, four-guard lineup. And the Tar Heels were as inconsistent, at times, as he was.

Like his squad, however, Paige finished strong. His freshman season was a solid one.

He recorded 14 points, four assists and three steals during North Carolina’s second-round victory over Villanova in the NCAA tournament.

He averaged 8.2 PPG, 4.2 APG and 1.4 SPG. He shot 34 percent from the 3-point line and 84 percent from the charity stripe.

Paige has the potential to continue the legacy of star point guards in North Carolina. Raymond Felton, Ty Lawson, Kendall Marshall and others were vital orchestrators for their respective squads.

And Paige is in that position now. He’s the most important returnee on a roster that’s filled with elite athletes.

Projections for North Carolina were uncertain immediately following the 2012-13 season.

James Michael McAdoo, P.J. Hairston and Reggie Bullock all considered turning pro. Hairston and McAdoo remained, while Bullock decided to take his talents to the NBA.

In that moment, the Tar Heels went from a team that might enter next season as a mid-tier ACC squad that would have been forced to rely on incoming freshmen Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks and Nate Britt to a squad that will enter 2013-14 as a national title contender.

Plus, there’s still the Andrew Wiggins mystery.

The Canadian stud will decide soon. And the Tar Heels are still on his list.

If Wiggins goes to Chapel Hill, then everything will be elevated for the program.

But coach Roy Williams has a solid group without him.

He has a team that features the manpower to do big things next season.

Duke will be stacked and Florida State will be a factor if Wiggins signs with the Seminoles. Plus, Notre Dame, Pitt and Syracuse are coming. The ACC will replace the Big Ten as college basketball’s powerhouse in the near future.

Duke and North Carolina tend to battle each year for the ACC crown. But that pattern will be challenged soon, especially with Louisville arriving in a year.

Yet, the Tar Heels remain relevant.

They’re bigger now with Hicks and Meeks. The young duo is vital. Now, McAdoo can utilize the inside-outside game that wowed NBA scouts when he was a freshman.

He was forced into the paint last season.

Hairston could have a breakout season, now that he’ll probably play a bigger role with Bullock gone.

But even if Wiggins enters the mix, the Tar Heels will need a maestro who can unify and guide the program to its potential.

A healthy Marshall, in my opinion, would have led the Tar Heels to the national championship game in 2012. They just weren’t the same team without him, despite the NBA talent that year’s roster boasted.

The Tar Heels have valuable components again, the kind they’ll need to compete in the super-sized ACC.

But Paige is the guy who must make it all work.

Flashes of potential were expected and accepted when he was just a freshman. Consistency, however, will be a necessity on both ends of the floor in 2013-14.

They need his leadership, too.

The ceiling is high for North Carolina if Paige starts next season the way he finished 2012-13.

Britt will give the Tar Heels some depth at point guard. But this is Paige’s show.

So he has to reduce his turnovers (2.5 TPG). He has to be in charge on the floor and off it. He has to be a threat on offense and defense.

That’s a lot of pressure for any sophomore.

But that’s just Paige’s reality.

North Carolina, per the norm, will be a preseason ACC contender again. To compete for the national title and climb the standings of the new and improved conference, however, the Tar Heels will need their young point guard to grow.

That’s why he’s so significant.

Youth has reigned in the one-and-done era.

Tim Duncan and other former collegiate veterans were praised as mature prospects when they turned pro nearly 20 years ago.

In the 2012 NBA draft, however, five of the first 10 picks were selected following their first and only season of NCAA basketball.

That’s not surprising given the value NBA execs have placed on potential in the one-and-done era. But it has also spawned myths about the benefits of college experience.

The latter seems to do more harm for future pros today. We can go down the list of players who were better prospects as freshmen and sophomores than they were as juniors and seniors.

For NBA scouts, those extra seasons can become additional time for scrutiny. The kid with the smooth jump shot in Year 1 might be the second-year man who’s not as athletic as he appeared to be a year ago.

By the time they’re juniors and seniors, they’ve lost the NBA value they’d appeared to possess earlier in their careers -- even if they improved over time.

But there’s still a place for guys who decide to stay in college for three or four years.

Proof? The NBA playoffs.

This year’s opening round has been nothing short of sports theatre.

And some of the performances of young athletes who’ve played pivotal roles on playoff rosters have countered misperceptions about upperclassmen.

Kenneth Faried (four years at Morehead State) is a critical player for the Denver Nuggets. Young star Stephen Curry played for three years at Davidson.

Chandler Parsons, who’s averaging 16.8 PPG in the playoffs for the Houston Rockets, played for four seasons at Florida.

Jeff Green, a three-year competitor at Georgetown, is one of the key reasons that the Boston Celtics are still alive against the New York Knicks.

Ty Lawson was overlooked by many teams following three seasons and a national title run at North Carolina. But he’s leading the Nuggets in scoring in the postseason (22.2 PPG).

Even former All-American Draymond Green has found a spot in Mark Jackson’s rotation with the Warriors.

From the Lansing State Journal:

Green figures to play a key role as the Warriors try to close out the series. Forward David Lee’s hip injury has given Green more minutes and he has capitalized. He had a career-high 13 points to go with six rebounds and four assists, playing in crunch time during Golden State’s 115-101 win in Game 4.

“You have to really pay attention and know the game to appreciate what (Green) does on the floor," Jackson told the San Jose Mercury News afterward. "It was funny to me that people would ask why he was in the game in Game 1. The guy is a winner, he's a competitor, he cares, he works his tail off, and he's going to be a coach in this league or somewhere. The guy was a coach when we drafted him. He could do that today if he wanted to. That's how good he is and how smart he is."

A few years ago, former NBA coach Flip Saunders told me that Green was the most intelligent college basketball player he’d ever encountered.

He was a second round pick. But his time at Michigan State gave him the tools he needed to make an impact in the most critical moment of his team’s season.

The aforementioned players didn’t have some of the flash of their younger peers, many of whom were selected earlier in their respective drafts. But they’ve endured the grind of the NBA. And they’ve utilized their maturity and basketball IQs to find spots in the league.

That’s not easy to do. But their trajectories prove that it’s possible.

I think Green and Co. should make other young players think twice about leaving college early.

Their time in college is certainly paying off right now.

I know, I know.

More Kentucky hype. Enough is enough already, right?

Well ... no.

John Calipari has signed five of the top-9 prospects in America (Julius Randle, Aaron Harrison, Andrew Harrison, Dakari Johnson and James Young), according to RecruitingNation. And Marcus Lee is one of six McDonald’s All-Americans in that class. Plus, Alex Poythress, Kyle Wiltjer and Willie Cauley-Stein will return.

That’s just ridiculous. And consensus No. 1 prep talent Andrew Wiggins ... gulp ... might choose the Wildcats, too.

Yes, Kentucky will be the No. 1 team in America once preseason rankings are released in the coming months. I don’t understand any arguments against that.

But, we won’t have to wait too long to see if these Wildcats will justify the preseason buzz.

On Wednesday afternoon, the school released its nonconference schedule through its Twitter feed.

John Calipari teased the slate with this tweet: “It's once again an elite schedule, but that's the standard here. It looks like we'll play several top teams.”

That’s no overstatement.

Here are the highlights (Yes, we knew about some of these games months ago):

Kentucky vs. Michigan State (Chicago), Nov. 12: Whoa. So, we might see the top two squads in the country compete against one another in the State Farm Champions Classic in Chicago, huh? We know what Kentucky has. But the Spartans are going to be a force, too. With Adreian Payne and Gary Harris returning, Tom Izzo has a team with Final Four potential. How will the Big Ten contenders handle this young Kentucky crew that’s packed with NBA talent? We’ll see.

Kentucky vs. Robert Morris (Lexington), Nov. 17: The Wildcats clearly want payback for last year’s embarrassing NIT loss. The Wildcats commenced last season with a national ranking. They ended last season with a first-round NIT loss against Robert Morris. It was a fitting conclusion for last year’s disaster. But this is not last year’s team. Pay attention to the pregame buzz. Calipari and Co. will say that this is “just another game.” And then they’ll go out there and try to beat the Colonials by 50.

Kentucky vs. Baylor (Arlington), Dec. 6: I’ve been pumped about this one since it was announced last year. It will be held at Cowboys Stadium. That helps. Projections for Baylor changed recently when both Cory Jefferson and Isaiah Austin announced that they will return for another season. That makes this matchup more intriguing. The venue has fueled most of the hype. But Kentucky should be on upset alert entering this matchup.

Kentucky at North Carolina (Chapel Hill), Dec. 14: Wiggins could be a factor in this matchup. The Canadian standout could choose either school. But even if he doesn’t, this is still a high-profile battle. Last season, the Tar Heels failed to achieve the results that the program has historically produced under Roy Williams. They had matchup problems throughout the season because they didn’t have the inside-outside balance they’ll possess in 2013-14. But incoming freshmen Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks should give Williams such much-needed size and enhance their chances of defeating the Wildcats. And Chapel Hill will be on fire with anticipation for this game.

Kentucky vs. Louisville (Lexington), Dec. 28: You don’t really need an introduction for this one. We all know about the rivalry. But right now, the Cardinals are kings. They’re the national champs. And they’re returning some of the key players who fueled that title run. But the game returns to Lexington in 2013-14. The Wildcats just weren’t on Louisville’s level last season. This, however, should be a more competitive matchup than last season’s meeting. And again, we’re talking about a pair of squads that might be ranked first and second in the preseason rankings. Get your popcorn ready.

For most players, the decision to turn pro or return to school seems obvious. If you’re a legitimate first-round pick, why play another season and reject millions of dollars?

I know I’m guilty of suggesting that the calls are that black and white. And I usually encourage players to take the money and run.

Today’s opportunity could disappear tomorrow, especially for this season’s crop of NBA prospects. The 2013 recruiting class is loaded with future pros. So lottery picks this year could potentially become borderline first-round picks if they decide to stay for another season.

But it’s only that simple from the outside.

These young men are facing one of the most difficult decisions of their lives. And money is not the only thing that they’re considering. They’re thinking about their friends, their college coaches, their families and their futures.

That’s why we’re still waiting for multiple players to announce their decisions before the NBA’s early entry deadline on Sunday.

Adreian Payne is on that list. Michigan State’s 6-10 forward, who averaged 10.5 PPG and shot 38.1 percent from the 3-point line last season, is projected on multiple draft boards in the late first-round, mid-second round region of this summer’s draft.

There’s a large pool of players in that 20-40 zone. And that, according to radio host and author Jack Ebling, is only making things harder on Payne as the deadline approaches.

Ebling, who wrote “Heart of a Spartan,” spoke with Payne earlier this week (mlive.com):

After running into Adreian Payne at a Lansing restaurant Monday night, Ebling said he honestly couldn't tell if the Spartans' junior was leaning toward coming back to Michigan State for his senior season of basketball or ready to go to the NBA.

"It wasn't an interview — I wasn't there for that,'' Ebling said, asked to recount his chance meeting with Payne.”He was alone, sitting by himself, and he had just gotten off the phone. He had a glass of water sitting on the table in front of him, and he had his head in his hands.''

Payne has been projected as a very late-first to mid-second round NBA draft pick should he decide to make himself eligible for the draft before the April 28 deadline.

"I asked Adreian how he was coming with the process,'' Ebling said.”He had a lot on his mind, it's a tough decision. He said he didn't know what he was going to do, and he said that he wanted to get it over with.

"I asked if it would go up to the deadline, and he said he didn't want that. He wants to decide, he just doesn't know what to decide.''

Ebling, who covered the Spartans for years as a beat writer with the Lansing State Journal, has seen the events Payne is going through play out many times before with other Michigan State athletes.

"I think it’s 50-50 right now,'' Ebling said. "If he wanted to go, things aren't going to get any better in the final week. He is what he is.

Again, the decisions don’t seem as complicated from the outside.

But Payne is certainly one of many collegiate athletes who’ve been presented with this dilemma in recent weeks.

And his uncertain stock only magnifies the challenge. Do NBA scouts believe he’s the Euro forward who demonstrated his versatility in the postseason or the prospect who struggled with consistency throughout the regular season?

So much for Payne to consider right now.

A lot of weight on his shoulders.

And with so much money awaiting the players who make the right decisions, it’s easy to overlook that.

Let’s try this again.

The last time I offered a bunch of bold predictions, this happened.

I tried to explain my reasoning in this follow-up. Maybe it helped. Maybe it just made things worse.

But I’m back again for another round of bold predictions for the Sweet 16. Let’s see what happens:

1. Florida Gulf Coast over Florida -- Given the Cinderella story that Andy Enfield’s program has penned thus far, this is not that bold. The Eagles have shattered every bracket in America. Dunk City is real. First, the Eagles defeated Georgetown, then they advanced to the Sweet 16 with a victory over San Diego State. But Florida is a different beast. Every win this season (28) was by double digits. The Gators are in the top three in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy. But they’ve been vulnerable in close games. And the Eagles can keep things tight against the Gators. San Diego State was the first team to shoot better than 42 percent against the Eagles since Feb. 28. If FGCU maintains this defensive prowess, it will have a legit chance against the Gators. And let’s be honest: Destiny seems to be on the Eagles’ side. Enjoy the Elite Eight, fellas.
2. Oregon-Louisville won’t be decided until the final minute -- The formula is simple on paper. The Ducks turn the ball over a lot. They led the Pac-12 in turnovers this season. In its third-round victory against Saint Louis, Oregon committed 18 turnovers. Louisville forces turnovers on 28 percent of its opponents’ possessions, second in the country, per Ken Pomeroy. An Oregon team that plays fast and reckless against a Louisville squad that feasts on similar foes? Clearly, the Cardinals have the edge. And that's a gigantic advantage. There’s really no debate for that. The amazing thing is that Oregon committed 36 turnovers and still defeated both Oklahoma State and Saint Louis by double digits. Numbers alone don’t tell the true story of Oregon basketball right now. The Ducks are dangerous. They’re a high-flying attack that makes mistakes but scores a bunch of points in the process. So even though Louisville is still my pick to win the national title, the Cardinals are going to play a nail-biter against the Ducks. And they won’t secure the win until the final seconds. Tough game for Rick Pitino’s team.
3. [+] Enlarge
   Brad Penner/USA TODAY SportsJohn Beilein has his team in top shape heading into the Sweet 16.
   Michigan to the Final Four -- I’ve learned my lesson about the Wolverines. My original predictions stated that John Beilein’s program would miss the Sweet 16. And then, the Wolverines were the most impressive team -- other than Louisville -- in the field in the first two rounds of the Big Dance. Plus, freshman Mitch McGary impressed and seemingly expanded the dimensions of Michigan’s potential. This is a Michigan team that has to be disrupted on some level to be defeated. And that’s not an easy task for a team that possesses the lowest turnover rate in the country. Just ask VCU. Kansas forced few turnovers against Western Kentucky and North Carolina. And it played three lukewarm halves in its two wins. The Jayhawks who advanced to the Sweet 16 resemble the same squad that lost to TCU and got crushed by Baylor. This is still a very talented squad. And that 19-5 run against the Tar Heels proved as much. But the Jayhawks have played too much average basketball in the tournament. That inconsistency will cost the Jayhawks against a Wolverines team that will beat KU, then knock off Florida Gulf Coast in the Elite Eight.
4. Miami, too -- Entering the NCAA tournament, the knock against the Hurricanes was their lack of NCAA tournament experience. I think their game experience, however, was overlooked. This is a team with nine upperclassmen. It also helps that Jim Larranaga is a true coaching veteran. There was certainly controversy in the final minutes of the Canes' win over Illinois on Sunday. But Miami neutralized the Illini’s greatest weapon (Illinois went 7-for-27 from the 3-point line). I believe the Hurricanes will beat Marquette and Indiana will knock off Syracuse. That will set up a meeting with a Miami squad that hasn’t lost since early March. There will be so much pressure on the Hoosiers in that game. Tom Crean has been credited with the program’s revival. He has earned it. But now, Indiana enters the second weekend of the tournament and it's supposed to win two games. That’s the bar now. The Hoosiers have never faced those circumstances under Crean. The Hurricanes are not playing with that pressure. They have the length and talent (see Shane Larkin) to match Indiana. And I just think they’ll be the more relaxed squad, too. That will help in a game they'll win. Next stop: Atlanta.
5. Ohio State will win both games in L.A. by 10 points or more -- The Los Angeles Regional is not exactly the field most anticipated once the pairings were announced on Selection Sunday. La Salle versus Wichita State and Ohio State versus Arizona can’t be what that city anticipated a few weeks ago. There’s certainly a sense of intrigue, however, with the fact the Explorers or Shockers will earn a shot at the Final Four. But I just think the Buckeyes are two steps above the remaining teams in the West Region. Check the stats. Ohio State has been the Big Ten’s best team overall for more than a month. It has the leadership of Aaron Craft and Deshaun Thomas. The Buckeyes aren't a two-man show, though. LaQuinton Ross, Shannon Scott and others have been crucial contributors, too. The Buckeyes are playing solid defense. And they’ve been one of America’s toughest teams for a lengthy stretch. Ohio State won’t have many struggles at Staples Center. It'll beat Arizona and the winner of La Salle-Wichita State by 10 or more points.

Saddle Up is our semi-daily preview of the night's best basketball action.

Charleston vs. Davidson, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2 -- The Southern Conference title game at the U.S. Cellular Center in Asheville, N.C., features two of the hottest mid-majors in the country. Davidson owned the SoCon’s top scoring offense after averaging 74.6 points per game during SoCon play this season. Plus, the Wildcats only allowed 56.9 PPG in conference play, which is also No. 1 in the league. They haven’t lost since Jan. 14. The veteran duo of De'Mon Brooks (13.5 PPG) and Jake Cohen (14.9 PPG) anchors one of the top mid-major programs in America.

But Charleston, which finished second to Davidson in the SoCon’s South Division, has won six of its past seven games. The Cougars have held three of their past five opponents to 55 points or less. Senior Andrew Lawrence is averaging 17.5 PPG in the SoCon tourney thus far. But the Cougars have already suffered two losses against Davidson this season.

Pick: Davidson 69, Charleston 59

Western Kentucky vs. Florida International, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN -- The most surprising element of this matchup is the fact that Middle Tennessee, the dominant regular-season champ, is not participating in the Sun Belt’s tournament title game. Richard Pitino, son of Louisville’s Rick Pitino, has led the Golden Panthers to the championship matchup in his first season as head coach. They reached the final stage of the conference tournament with a Sunday upset of Middle Tennessee, a loss that snapped a 17-game winning streak for the Blue Raiders. Malik Smith (14.1 PPG) has gone 11-for-16 from the 3-point line in the conference tournament thus far.

Western Kentucky, which finished 10-10 in league play, wasn’t expected to advance this far, either. But the Hilltoppers have a shot at their second consecutive Sun Belt tourney title and automatic berth. T.J. Price (15.5 PPG) might be the best player on the floor.

Pick: FIU 70, WKU 69 (overtime)

James Madison vs. Northeastern, 7 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network -- Northeastern, the CAA’s regular-season champ, was on the ropes in a Sunday semifinal matchup against George Mason. The Huskies were down by 24 points in the first half but stormed back in the second to earn the two-point win and a spot in tonight’s championship game in Richmond, Va. Guard Joel Smith (16.4 PPG) will be the most talented player in the gym.

James Madison, which held CAA opponents to a league-low 60.8 PPG, squeezed by Delaware in the semis. The Dukes have won five of their past seven games.

Pick: James Madison 66, Northeastern 64

St. Mary’s vs. No. 1 Gonzaga, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN -- The Zags have achieved the program’s first-ever No. 1 ranking. It’s an honorable achievement for a team that’s also in a position to secure a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament entering this evening’s West Coast Conference tournament championship game against Saint Mary’s in Las Vegas. Gonzaga has earned the praise it has received to date. But tonight’s matchup -- within the WCC -- is more significant than any poll.

Last season, the Bulldogs failed to win the WCC tournament or regular-season titles for the first time in nearly 15 years. The Gaels snatched both. So revenge is a factor in the third matchup between these two rivals in 2012-13.

Kelly Olynyk, a national player of the year candidate averaging 17.3 PPG, and his teammates have already defeated Saint Mary’s twice this season. But Matthew Dellavedova (16.2 PPG) & Co. will come out swinging in hopes of avoiding any Selection Sunday drama.

Pick: Gonzaga 74, Saint Mary’s 68

Manhattan vs. Iona, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2 -- The MAAC championship game will pit the league’s top offensive and defensive teams against one another. Iona’s Momo Jones (23.3 PPG) commands the MAAC’s best scoring unit (80.0 PPG in league play). Overall, the Gaels are second in the country with an 81.3 PPG average in 2012-13. But their defense has been suspect all season (league-high 75.1 PPG allowed).

Manhattan (57.6 PPG allowed in conference play, No. 1 in the MAAC) held Fairfield to just 42 points in the semifinals. Loyola (MD) recorded 52 points against the Jaspers in the quarterfinals.

Manhattan and Iona split their two games during the regular season. So who wins tonight? Iona and its fluid offense or Manhattan and its stubborn defense?

Pick: Iona 76, Manhattan 74

One man’s observations from another eventful Saturday afternoon of college basketball …

1. I don’t trust Florida anymore. Sometimes, the numbers lie. Sometimes, a team with dazzling stats fails to justify the analytic mechanisms that elevate it. That could be the case with Florida. The BPI, the RPI, Ken Pomeroy and Sagarin all love the Gators. Per the film, however, I see problems. The same Florida team that amassed a plus-18.8-points-per-game scoring margin in SEC play entering Saturday’s 61-57 loss at Kentucky (more on that soon) and crushed Marquette and Wisconsin in November has suffered four road losses in February alone. The Gators were outplayed by Arizona and Kansas State off campus in the nonconference portion of their schedule. Sure, they’ve spent of a chunk of the season punching teams in the mouth, but they’re 0-5 in games decided by six points or fewer and haven't beaten a single top-50 RPI team in a road game. And we really haven’t seen that dominant version of Florida, which began SEC play with historic margins of victory, in a month. Who are the Gators now? Well, the final minutes of the Kentucky loss told their story. They’re balanced and talented, but they fumbled in the last stretch of that loss because they couldn’t find that catalyst, that Ben McLemore/Marcus Smart/Doug McDermott/Trey Burke, to lead them beyond the funk that ruined the moment. They did not score in the last seven-plus minutes of the second half. They were the veterans, but they played like freshmen. It’s tough to believe in this program’s postseason potential when it continues to suffer road losses against hungry SEC opponents that don’t match them on paper. Guess what they’ll have to do to advance in the NCAA tournament? Beat hungry underdogs outside Gainesville. Yes, Kentucky re-entered the bubble convo with this win, but Florida did little to prove that it’s worthy of its statistical hype. Again.

2. Marcus Smart and the national/Big 12 POY conversation. Listen, I think Trey Burke deserves national player of the year, but I might change my mind if Victor Oladipo outplays him tomorrow. Here’s the general Burke argument -- and it’s a convincing one -- that circulates within college basketball media circles: “If you take him off that team, there’s no way they’re top 10 and competing for a Big Ten title.” And that’s accurate. I can’t argue against that. Here’s another one to consider: “If you take Marcus Smart off Oklahoma State’s roster, you probably have the team that finished 7-11 in league play last season and not the 13-5 team that’s competed for the Big 12 title in 2012-13.” Smart is the Big 12 player of the year. I like McLemore, Jeff Withey and Rodney McGruder, but Smart deserves the honor following his performance (21 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 steals) in Saturday’s 76-70 win over Kansas State, a victory that jeopardized the Wildcats’ hopes of winning a Big 12 title. He should be a legit candidate for national POY, too.

3. The sad conclusion to Georgetown-Syracuse. Following his team’s 61-39 loss at Georgetown on Saturday, Jim Boeheim told reporters, “I’m pretty much ready to go play golf someplace. If I was 40 years old, I would be real upset. I’m not 40 years old. That should be obvious.” That comment and his team’s lackluster finish to the regular season (1-4 in its last five) will continue to fuel the retirement speculation that’s surrounded Boeheim for years. John Thompson III might have won national coach of the year honors with his team’s Big East title-sealing win. But the lopsided effort -- the Hoyas’ largest margin of victory against Syracuse since 1985 -- offered a melancholy ending to this classic rivalry. Georgetown will join the Catholic 7, and Syracuse will move to the ACC next season. The two may reconnect in the future, but their battles won’t be regulated by league affiliation. So this could be the end, and as a college basketball fan, I wanted to see drama, overtime, controversy in the final seconds, a buzzer-beater, a comeback … something. This rivalry deserved that. Instead, we were treated to the sight of one impressive squad smashing an opponent that failed to show up for the conclusion of this storied series.

4. Marquette wins its most crucial bizarre game of the year. The Golden Eagles love the theatrics that tend to define college basketball in March. Their 69-67 win at St. John’s was their fourth overtime game of the season in Big East competition. It was their third conference win by three points or less. Marquette hasn’t forged the prettiest path to the Big East title, but it earned a share of the crown with another gritty victory Saturday. St. John’s launched an impressive comeback in the final minutes that sent the game into overtime. Buzz Williams just smiled as his team prepared for the extra period; he’d been in that position multiple times this season, so his squad didn’t panic. With the game on the line, Vander Blue drove into the lane and beat the buzzer with the layup. I guess I shouldn’t have been surprised. This is what Marquette does. A team that was picked to finish in the middle of the standings earned a share of the Big East title. Wow. The Golden Eagles are clearly tough enough to make noise in the NCAA tourney, too.

5. Jim Crews for national coach of the year. Last season, I covered Saint Louis’ NCAA tournament appearance in Columbus, Ohio. Once Rick Majerus left the podium for a pregame media session, it took him 30 minutes to re-join his team. Fans wanted to talk to him. Other coaches wanted to talk to him. Friends wanted to talk to him. Reporters wanted to talk to him. He was an icon for that program and the entire sport. So when he took an indefinite leave of absence from the team in the months prior to his death in December, the Billikens had lost so much more than a coach. Sure, they had promise, but Crews didn’t have an easy task on his plate. He had to gain the trust of this talented group (he was an assistant in 2011-12) as it prepared for a battle in an Atlantic 10 beefed up by the additions of Virginia Commonwealth and Butler. He didn’t have one of his key players (Kwamain Mitchell injured his foot last fall) for the first two months of the season. But Crews overcame those obstacles. On Saturday, the Billikens secured a share of the conference crown with a 78-54 victory over La Salle. They’ve won 12 of their past 13. Their balance, defense (22nd in adjusted defensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy) and experience could lead to a deep run in March. Sounds like a national coach of the year effort to me.

6. Meet Derrick Marks. In the final seconds of a 69-65 win that might have pushed his Boise State squad into the field of 68, Marks made a split-second decision to contest Xavier Thames' layup with 21 seconds to go. If Thames had made that shot, the Aztecs would have cut Boise State’s lead to one point. But Marks made plays like that all afternoon. The sophomore guard is just one of the reasons that the Broncos could win a game or two in the NCAA tourney -- I’m putting them in the field, although I’m not so sure about San Diego State anymore. Leon Rice’s program is healthy now (eight guys earned minutes against the Aztecs). The Broncos possess an offense that’s ranked 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency per Pomeroy, and they’ve won five of their past six games. Watch out for the Broncos in the coming weeks. Huge victory for that team.

7. Get ready for drama in Nashville. Next week, the SEC tournament will take place in Nashville. This league is packed with bubble squads, and I think that will add to the drama in what could be the most exciting conference tournament of them all. Proof? On Saturday, Alabama beat Georgia on a half-court buzzer-beater, Tennessee overcame a late deficit to secure a key win over Missouri and Kentucky kept its NCAA tournament dreams alive with a victory over Florida. The chaos will continue in Nashville.

8. Florida Gulf Coast becomes first team to dance. The Eagles earned the field’s first automatic NCAA tournament berth with an 88-75 victory over Mercer in the Atlantic Sun tourney championship. This is an Eagles squad that finished 8-10 (tied for sixth) in the conference last season, but their first victory of the 2012-13 season came against a top-10-bound Miami team. Kudos to Andy Enfield’s program.

9. Creighton-Wichita State III. The two Missouri Valley Conference power players split their season series this season. Despite their respective struggles, they were still the league’s top two programs. Their most recent matchup, which the Bluejays won, determined the regular-season champion. Creighton’s 64-43 victory over Indiana State and Wichita State’s 66-51 win over Illinois State in Saturday’s semifinals of the MVC tournament guaranteed a third matchup between the league’s top two teams in Sunday afternoon’s final.

10. Louisville makes statement without five overtimes. So the rematch between Louisville and Notre Dame didn’t match the hoopla of the first game. We didn’t get five overtimes. We didn’t even see one. But the Cardinals continued to support the notion that they’re going to be a very dangerous program in the NCAA tournament with a 73-57 victory over Notre Dame. It was the seventh consecutive victory for a team that’s ranked first in adjusted defensive efficiency, per Pomeroy. As a team, the Cardinals shot 51 percent from the floor against the Fighting Irish, and Gorgui Dieng registered 20 points (8-11 FG) and 11 rebounds. The Cards are playing like a Final Four team.

One man’s predictions for an always unpredictable weekend of college basketball. I'm sure one or two of you might disagree with these:

Friday

Harvard at Princeton, 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU: As usual, the two rivals sit atop the Ivy League’s standings. At 7-2, the Tigers are one-and-a-half games behind the Crimson. With four games to play, however, anything can happen in the battle for the regular-season title and the conference’s NCAA tourney berth. Harvard won the first matchup (69-57 on Feb. 16), but Princeton’s offense has jelled in recent weeks (57th in adjusted offensive efficiency). However, Crimson freshman guard Siyani Chambers (averaging 13.0 points, 5.9 assists, 1.6 steals) is on a mission right now.

Prediction: Harvard 65, Princeton 62

Saturday

Iowa at No. 1 Indiana, 7:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network: Iowa’s at-large dreams were deferred when the Hawkeyes suffered a loss at Nebraska last weekend. But redemption could come quickly. The same Minnesota team that the Hawkeyes crushed two weeks ago upset Indiana on Tuesday. Could Iowa equal that feat in Bloomington? It’s not likely. The Hawkeyes are actually playing Indiana at the worst time. The Hoosiers want that No. 1 seed, and losing to a mid-tier Big Ten team would not help their cause, especially in their first game since that loss at Minnesota. A motivated Indiana team back at Assembly Hall? That’s not a good situation for Iowa.

Prediction: Indiana 78, Iowa 60

No. 5 Miami at No. 3 Duke, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Blue Devils certainly want vengeance after that 27-point beatdown they suffered at Miami in January. After Thursday’s loss to Virginia, however, the Blue Devils are also looking for a win to secure a top seed. A No. 1 slot might be up for grabs when these two teams play. Miami is certainly the king of the ACC right now. But last weekend’s loss at Wake Forest exposed the Hurricanes’ ongoing struggles on the road. Their defense (ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy) is still their ticket to a Final Four run and to continued dominance in the ACC. Defense has been an issue for Duke, but the Blue Devils possess one of the nation’s most fluid offenses (fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy). I can’t see Miami amassing the early momentum that led to a lopsided victory in the first meeting. And I can’t see Duke playing the same suspect defense that it demonstrated in the first game. So who wins? Think déjà vu.

Prediction: Miami 68, Duke 65

Alabama at No. 8 Florida, noon ET, ESPN: Anthony Grant’s team is one of the best defensive units in the SEC (57.7 points per game allowed). And it will face a Gators squad that has been vulnerable in recent weeks. But the Gators will be 100 percent -- for once -- when Will Yeguete and Michael Frazier II return following injuries. And Billy Donovan’s squad hasn’t been touched at home. I think Bama will put up a fight but the Gators will dictate the pace of this SEC matchup. Trevor Releford just doesn’t have the offensive sidekicks he needs to pull off an upset on the road against a team with Florida’s talent.

Prediction: Florida 75, Alabama 65

No. 10 Louisville at No. 12 Syracuse, noon ET, CBS: Although the Orange didn’t have James Southerland and were on the road, they still upset Louisville -- No. 1 at the time -- in the first matchup between these two squads. Michael Carter-Williams scored nine of his team’s final 11 points. He punctuated his performance with a ferocious dunk over Gorgui Dieng on a fast break in the final seconds. Now, they’ll play again in the Carrier Dome. Cuse is two games behind Georgetown for first place in the Big East. Louisville is one game behind the Hoyas. Those stakes should intensify this matchup. But the Cardinals have won seven of their past eight games. They’re finishing strong a la 2011-12.

Prediction: Louisville 70, Syracuse 63

No. 11 Arizona at UCLA, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Wildcats were embarrassed in the first matchup between these two. The Bruins' 84-73 victory in January sent a message to the league that they were finally beginning to jell. Both teams are chasing Oregon in the Pac 12, but the Ducks have wins over both teams in their lone meetings this season. Unless the Ducks slip in their final two games, they’ll secure the regular-season championship. UCLA and Arizona -- the top two scoring offenses in the Pac 12, respectively -- are playing for other reasons. The Bruins’ at-large résumé could use a boost. And after suffering a loss to USC this week, the Wildcats’ seed placement took another hit. They’ve lost three of their past six. Joe Lunardi gave the Wildcats a No. 3 seed before the loss to the Trojans. The last thing the Wildcats want in a wacky year like this is to fall into a matchup of No. 4 versus No. 13 or No. 5 versus No. 12. That could happen, however, if they lose in Los Angeles. I mean … when they lose in Los Angeles.

Prediction: UCLA 76, Arizona 73

No. 20 Butler at VCU, noon ET, ESPN2: The Atlantic 10 is a gauntlet. The Rams and Bulldogs are two of the contenders who’ve jousted for position in this league. Shaka Smart’s VCU squad is recognized for its "Havoc" defense, and the Rams top the conference with 76.1 ppg. Butler is holding its A-10 opponents to a 39.7 percent clip from the field, No. 1 in the league. Both squads hope to catch Saint Louis in the final three games of the season, but the Billikens possess a 3-0 record against them (two wins over the Bulldogs, one versus the Rams). The winner of this game will remain in the hunt for a share of the crown.

Prediction: Butler 68, VCU 67

No. 21 Notre Dame at No. 22 Marquette, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN : The Fighting Irish are two games behind Big East leader Georgetown, while Buzz Williams’ Golden Eagles are just a game behind the Hoyas. Marquette has not lost in Milwaukee this season. But the Fighting Irish, who’ve won four of their past five, are built for the upset. They have a strong backcourt led by Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant. And Jack Cooley's size could be a problem for Marquette inside. The Golden Eagles, however, are tougher than they look (28th in offensive rebounding rate per Ken Pomeroy). And they form a special group when they’re on their home floor. That won’t change this weekend.

Prediction: Marquette 71, Notre Dame 65

Wichita State at Creighton, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN2: It all comes down to this. Wichita State and Creighton are tied atop the Missouri Valley Conference standings. So this is the MVC title game. The winner gets the crown and the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. The Shockers earned a win in the first game. But Evansville snapped their five-game winning streak on Wednesday, the same night that Creighton defeated Bradley. This should be a battle. The stakes are high. Creighton wants to avenge the first loss. The Shockers have been tough all year, but the Bluejays won’t let Wichita State snatch the MVC crown in Omaha.

Prediction: Creighton 76, Wichita State 68

Sunday

No. 9 Michigan State at No. 4 Michigan, 4 p.m. ET, CBS: Recent struggles by both teams have put their respective fan bases on alert. The Wolverines’ defense has been questioned all season. But it hadn’t faced the level of scrutiny that followed this week’s road loss at Penn State, the Nittany Lions’ first Big Ten victory. It was Michigan’s third loss in five games. Tom Izzo, however, has had some concerns about his team, too. The Spartans have lost two in a row, but they’re still a game behind Indiana for first place in the Big Ten. Whoever wins this rivalry game will gain some momentum entering the final stretch of the season.

Prediction: Michigan State 70, Michigan 67

Here are the latest mid-major power rankings for ESPN.com as voted upon by our national panel. I also vote in this poll, which does not include teams from the Atlantic 10, Conference USA or Mountain West.

A quick look at the panel:

Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) covers Horizon League basketball for the Green Bay Press-Gazette.

Richard Kilwien (@smcgaels) is the associate athletic director for external affairs at Saint Mary's College.

Leslie Wilhite (@Leslie_Wilhite, @MT_MBB) is in her second season as an assistant director of athletic communications at Middle Tennessee.

Dusty Luthy Shull (@DustyLuthyShull) covers Murray State athletics for The Paducah (Ky.) Sun.

John Templon (@nybuckets) writes about New York City and East Coast mid-major college basketball for his website, nycbuckets.com.

Thomas Chen (@thomasmchen) is in his third year as director of athletic communications at Stony Brook University.

Terry Vandrovec (@terryvandrovec) covers South Dakota State basketball for the Argus Leader in Sioux Falls, S.D.

Mid-Major Power Rankings: Week 10

1. Gonzaga (27-2, 14-0 WCC). Future NBA big man Kelly Olynyk has led the Zags to the top of the WCC.
2. Middle Tennessee (25-4, 17-1 Sun Belt). The Blue Raiders have defeated their past two opponents by 35 points and 41 points, respectively.
3. Akron (23-4, 13-0 MAC). The Zips cracked the latest coaches’ poll. They haven’t lost since Dec. 15.
4. Saint Mary’s (25-5, 13-2 WCC). Saturday’s win over Creighton enhanced the Gaels’ at-large profile.
5. Belmont (23-6, 13-2 Ohio Valley). The Bruins’ three-game winning streak includes a lopsided win over Ohio last weekend.
6. Bucknell (24-5, 11-2 Patriot League). The Bison sealed the Patriot League regular-season crown with their three-game winning streak.
7. Creighton (23-7, 12-5 MVC). Wednesday night's victory over Bradley sets up a huge showdown with Wichita State on Saturday.
8. Wichita State (24-6, 12-5 MVC). Shockers can secure a No. 1 seed in the MVC tourney with a win over Creighton.
9. Louisiana Tech (24-3, 14-0 WAC). The Bulldogs, who haven’t lost since Dec. 12, earned the No. 25 slot in the latest AP poll.
10. Stephen F. Austin (23-3, 13-2 Southland). The Lumberjacks control the Southland but they’ll need a league tourney title to get an NCAA bid.
11. Valparaiso (23-7, 12-3 Horizon). The Crusaders are a game ahead of Detroit with one regular-season contest to play.
12. Davidson (22-7, 16-1 Southern). The Wildcats have won 13 in a row and they defeated Montana in overtime on Saturday.
13. Stony Brook (21-6, 12-2 America East). The Seawolves have four players who are averaging at least 8.8 points per game.
14. BYU (20-9, 9-5 WCC). The Cougars have lost three of their past five games.
15. Ohio (20-8, 11-2 MAC). The Bobcats have lost two in a row, including a heartbreaker in overtime against Akron Wednesday night.

Team of the Week: Prior to its recent success, Evansville had lost four of its past five games. But the Aces have finished strong. They won their third consecutive game 59-56 Wednesday night at Wichita State. The victory also ensures they’ll end the regular season with a .500 record (or better) in conference play. That’s a solid turnaround for this program.

Player of the Week: Delaware’s Devon Saddler, a 6-foot-2 junior guard, has led the Fightin’ Blue Hens to a top-three finish in the CAA with his efforts in their past three games, all close contests. Last week, he scored 31 points in a 73-71 double-overtime win against Drexel. He followed that performance with 24 points (10-for-20 from the field) in a 79-78 win at UNC-Wilmington on Saturday. And Wednesday night, he scored 19 points in a 57-56 victory at Hofstra.

Notes

• Montana’s Big Sky tourney plans may have changed with recent injuries to top contributors Mathias Ward and Will Cherry. Cherry re-injured the foot he broke prior to the start of the season in last weekend’s BracketBusters loss to Davidson. And Ward suffered a sprained arch in his left foot in a win over Idaho State during the previous weekend. Both could be unavailable or limited in the postseason.
• North Dakota State’s Taylor Braun, the program’s top scorer, was rusty Tuesday night, going 0-for-4 in 18 minutes of a 63-56 win over Utah Valley State. It was his first game back after missing 10 games with a foot injury. The Bison are a game behind South Dakota State for first place in the Summit League. If the Jackrabbits get past Omaha-Nebraska on Thursday night, they’ll win the league title. But North Dakota State, with the conference’s best defensive unit (34th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per Ken Pomeroy) could be the favorite to win the conference tourney now that Braun has returned.
• Dan Monson has done it again. Long Beach State (13-2 in conference play) is in command of the Big West with three games to play (Pacific is 3.5 games behind the 49ers). This team is not as fluid as last season's veteran crew. But with transfers Keala King (Arizona State) and James Ennis (17.1 ppg), the 49ers are certainly skilled as they prepare for another run at the Big West tournament title and the league’s automatic bid.

One man’s predictions for an always unpredictable weekend of college basketball. I'm sure one or two of you might disagree with these:

Friday

Saint Louis at No. 15 Butler, 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU: If the season ended today, Miami’s Jim Larranaga probably would win national coach of the year honors. But Jim Crews might be the runner-up. The Billikens’ interim head coach followed legendary leader Rick Majerus, who died in December. And that wasn’t his only challenge. He began the season without standout Kwamain Mitchell, who suffered a foot injury in the first practice of the season. Look at the Billikens now. They’re the best team in the Atlantic 10. They’re second in the league in scoring defense (61.6 ppg allowed) and first in scoring margin (plus-10.9). Sure, there’s still doubt. Butler, which has won five of six, is in the hunt for the conference crown, as is VCU. But St. Louis has earned convincing wins against both teams in recent weeks. The Bulldogs have held opponents to a 39.5 percent clip from the field, first in the league. They were stomped 75-58 in the first meeting. Will there be a different outcome Friday?

Prediction: Saint Louis 67, Butler 66

Saturday

Arkansas at No. 5 Florida, 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU: This month, Arkansas shocked the college basketball world when it stopped a Florida team that had toyed with its previous SEC foes. The 80-69 victory on Feb. 5 -- no squad had scored more than 67 points against the Gators at that point -- fueled questions about the Gators and created a buzz around the Razorbacks. Both were premature then. Arkansas has won three of four since that matchup, but Mike Anderson’s team tends to pull a 180 once it leaves campus (1-5 in SEC road games this season). Meanwhile, the Gators are coming off their second conference "L" of the season, a 63-60 loss at Missouri on Tuesday. Billy Donovan’s depth has taken a hit, as Will Yeguete continues to miss time with a knee injury. But the Gators are still the best team in the SEC, and they haven’t lost at home.

Prediction: Florida 78, Arkansas 62

No. 11 Georgetown at No. 8 Syracuse, 4 p.m. ET, CBS: Syracuse’s current position at the top of the Big East is unsurprising. But based on what Marquette and Georgetown lost after last season, they were not expected to join the Orange at the top of the conference. The three squads share 10-3 records in a tie for first place. But this is the first of two meetings between the Hoyas and the Orange. Both Georgetown (eighth) and Syracuse (ninth) are ranked in the top 10 of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings. The Hoyas have held Big East opponents to just 57.2 ppg, the top scoring defense in the conference. Otto Porter (15.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg) has led the Hoyas to eight consecutive wins. But they haven’t met a program with Syracuse’s versatility and offensive diversity. The effectiveness of a Cuse attack that’s responsible for four wins in five games is largely based on Michael Carter-Williams (13-for-42, 12 combined turnovers in three Big East losses) and his effectiveness. In this game, Syracuse will need MCW to demonstrate the skill set that makes NBA scouts drool. A plus for Jim Boeheim’s program is that the Orange haven’t lost at the Carrier Dome this season.

Prediction: Syracuse 60, Georgetown 55

No. 16 New Mexico at No. 22 Colorado State, 4 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network: This is a matchup between the top offense (Colorado State) and defense (New Mexico) in the Mountain West. The Rams suffered a heartbreaking loss to UNLV on Wednesday, when Anthony Marshall hit a jump shot in the final seconds. But they’re still better than the team that was bullied by New Mexico in a 66-61 loss on Jan. 23. The Lobos led by as much as 22 in that one. Colorado State possesses the Mountain West’s top scoring offense (71.0 ppg), but the Rams were hindered by a 6-for-21 clip from beyond the arc and 16 turnovers in the first game. To beat New Mexico (57.8 ppg allowed, No. 1 in the conference), even at home, they’ll have to avoid the latter and attack inside. (Colton Iverson is averaging 13.7 ppg and 9.6 rpg.) New Mexico is the most complete team in the conference, but the Lobos have displayed most of their flaws in road losses (see 34 points against San Diego State on Jan. 26). Plus, they’re facing a Rams team that’s wants to feel more comfortable about its at-large status. A win over the Lobos would certainly help.

Prediction: Colorado State 78, New Mexico 74 (overtime)

No. 17 Marquette at Villanova, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN2: Think back to October. If someone had told you Buzz Williams’ program would be locked in a three-way tie for first place in the Big East in late February, how would you have responded? I would have said, “No way.” But it’s real. The Golden Eagles (45.5 percent from the field, second in the Big East) enter their last five games battling Syracuse, Georgetown and multiple five-loss Big East teams for the top slot. There’s just one problem. Three of Marquette’s last five games are on the road, where it has struggled ... like most teams in America. The Golden Eagles will face a perplexing Villanova squad that could be one of the selection committee’s greatest headaches. The Wildcats have a top-60 RPI with wins over Louisville and Syracuse, but they’ve also been swept by Providence and suffered a nonconference loss to Columbia. Villanova is right there, though. A win over Marquette would be a positive step for its NCAA tourney hopes.

Prediction: Villanova 71, Marquette 65

Southern Miss at No. 17 Memphis, 1 p.m. ET, Fox Sports National: Memphis has won 17 consecutive games and is tied with Akron for the nation’s longest winning streak. Josh Pastner’s program has been difficult to gauge, however, because Conference USA is not a very deep league right now. Southern Miss (top-40 RPI) is the closest thing to a quality opponent that Conference USA can offer. So a win wouldn’t hurt the résumé of a Tigers squad that has made strides during the past month. No one has ever questioned the athleticism and potential of Pastner's teams, but the Tigers are finally living up to it. Maybe. We won’t really know until the Tigers are competing in the postseason. Another win against Southern Miss (the Tigers won the first matchup 89-76 on Feb. 9) would help Pastner’s program build more momentum as March approaches.

Prediction: Memphis 85, Southern Miss 70

No. 24 Virginia Commonwealth at Xavier, 2 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network: “HAVOC” describes Virginia Commonwealth’s defensive approach (44^th in adjusted defensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy) as much as it describes the current battle for the Atlantic 10 title. The Rams are a half-game behind Saint Louis after a 14-point road loss to the Billikens on Tuesday. They’ll travel again Saturday to face the league’s top scoring defense. Xavier (61.2 ppg allowed), however, has not played Saint Louis, VCU or Butler yet, so those numbers are probably an inaccurate representation of its defensive presence. But this critical stretch could lead Xavier to the bubble. Possibly. The Rams should be safe, but their final stretch could create problems for their at-large hopes if they stumble. First task? Don’t lose to a Xavier team with a 90 RPI.

Prediction: VCU 68, Xavier 58

Sunday

No. 4 Michigan State at No. 18 Ohio State, 4 p.m. ET, CBS: The conclusion of the first game was not fitting. Michigan State and Ohio State had tussled -- well, Deshaun Thomas (28 points, while no other Ohio State player scored more than six) tussled with Michigan State -- for 39-plus minutes. Then sophomore Shannon Scott missed a potential game-tying 3-pointer at the buzzer. The Buckeyes can play great basketball when Thomas is on. The Buckeyes also can play bad basketball when he’s the only one who is on. The latter is a scenario that they must avoid against a Michigan State team that is barely second place in the Big Ten after Tuesday’s 72-68 loss to No. 1 Indiana in East Lansing. But the Buckeyes are a different group in Columbus. Just ask the Minnesota team the Buckeyes beat by nearly 30 points there on Wednesday night. The Buckeyes don’t have answers for Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix, who combined to score 22 in the first game. However, they won’t need one if Thomas gets some help on Sunday.

Prediction: Ohio State 64, Michigan State 62

No. 20 Pitt at St. John’s, noon ET, ESPN3/WatchESPNApp: The Panthers have lost consecutive games to Marquette and Notre Dame. In Monday’s 51-42 loss to the Fighting Irish, Mike Brey drew a first-half technical and the Panthers suddenly lost their momentum. From a 19-3 lead to a nine-point loss. Huh? Now they’re in the Big East’s six-loss group. You don’t want to be in that group in late February. The Big East title is unlikely, so Pitt is playing for a seed. A road loss to a St. John’s squad with slim, if any, NCAA tourney at-large potential would not help anyone involved with Pitt basketball. Steve Lavin’s program is an athletic marvel that has dismissed the midlevel Big East teams but failed against the top-tier programs. Pitt didn’t look like a squad that belonged in the latter group against the Fighting Irish, but Jamie Dixon’s team (11^th in adjusted offensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy) has never been hungrier. The Big East, however, is packed with hungry teams that still believe they’re at-large worthy. St. John’s is certainly on that list, and that is a problem for Pitt.

Prediction: St. John’s 73, Pitt 70

Cincinnati at No. 25 Notre Dame, 2 p.m. ET, CBS: How do you explain what happened to the Fighting Irish in Monday’s 51-42 win over Pitt? Mike Brey’s team played some of its worst basketball of 2012-13, and then he picked up a technical and everything changed. Isn’t that the story of Notre Dame’s entire season? Flashes of brilliance followed by bouts of mediocrity or vice versa? Well, the 9-5 Fighting Irish are still in the mix. They need a lot to happen with the top three teams (Syracuse, Georgetown and Marquette) to get serious about sharing a slice of the title. A loss to Cincy, however, probably would end that idea. Notre Dame shot 9-for-16 from the 3-point line when it defeated Cincy 66-60 in the first matchup way back on Jan. 7. That Cincy squad had the makings of a Big East contender. This Cincy squad is running on fumes following four losses in its past five games. The Bearcats’ dilemma? They can guard anyone (17^th in adjusted defensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy), but they can’t score (62.1 ppg, 12^th in the Big East). That matters.

Prediction: Notre Dame 68, Cincinnati 64

Here are the latest mid-major power rankings for ESPN.com as voted upon by our national panel. I also vote in this poll, which does not include teams from the Atlantic 10, Conference USA or Mountain West.

A quick look at the panel:

Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) covers Horizon League basketball for the Green Bay Press-Gazette.

Richard Kilwien (@smcgaels) is the associate athletic director for external affairs at Saint Mary's College.

Leslie Wilhite (@Leslie_Wilhite, @MT_MBB) is in her second season as an assistant director of athletic communications at Middle Tennessee.

Dusty Luthy Shull (@DustyLuthyShull) covers Murray State athletics for The Paducah (Ky.) Sun.

John Templon (@nybuckets) writes about New York City and East Coast mid-major college basketball for his website, nycbuckets.com.

Thomas Chen (@thomasmchen) is in his third year as director of athletic communications at Stony Brook University.

Terry Vandrovec (@terryvandrovec) covers South Dakota State basketball for the Argus Leader in Sioux Falls, S.D.

Mid-Major Power Rankings: Week 9

1. Gonzaga (26-2, 13-0 WCC). The Zags don’t have an equal in the WCC, and now they’re in contention for a No. 1 seed.
2. Middle Tennessee (23-4, 15-1 Sun Belt). The Blue Raiders can do more harm than good to their at-large status in the Sun Belt, but they’ve won 12 in a row.
3. Akron (21-4, 12-0 MAC). The Zips own the nation’s longest winning streak (17 in a row) entering a BracketBusters matchup against North Dakota State on Friday.
4. Wichita State (23-5, 12-4 MVC). The Shockers are back on top of the Missouri Valley Conference after winning four in a row.
5. Saint Mary’s (22-5, 11-2 WCC). The Gaels need a win Saturday against Creighton in BracketBusters because it’s probably their last opportunity for a quality win in the regular season.
6. Bucknell (22-5, 9-2 Patriot). The Bison took control of the Patriot League with Monday’s road win over rival Lehigh.
7. Creighton (22-6, 11-5 MVC). The Bluejays might be safe in the eyes of the selection committee for now, but their recent struggles -- losing three of their past five -- suggest that might not last.
8. Belmont (21-6, 12-2 OVC). The Bruins were rolling in the OVC until they hit their four-game road stretch.
9. Louisiana Tech (24-3, 14-0 WAC). The Bulldogs are still winning (16 consecutive victories), and they’re still hard to gauge due to the limited competition they’re facing in the WAC.
10. Stephen F. Austin (22-3, 13-2 Southland). The Lumberjacks are ranked fourth in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings, and they’ve won six of seven.
11. Ohio (20-6, 11-1 MAC). The Bobcats are one game behind an Akron team (in the MAC’s East Division) that they’ll face again Feb. 27. This time, Ohio will get the Zips on its home floor.
12. Valparaiso (21-7, 11-3 Horizon). The Crusaders are still on top of the Horizon League despite losing a war with Detroit over the weekend.
13. Montana (19-5, 15-1 Big Sky). The Grizzlies’ 14-game winning streak was snapped by rival Weber State on Valentine’s Day.
14. Detroit (18-9, 10-4 Horizon). With Saturday’s come-from-behind road victory over Valpo, the athletic Titans are just a game behind the Crusaders.
15. BYU (20-8, 9-4 WCC). The Cougars have an RPI of 62, but they don’t have any quality wins. They’ll face Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga in the next week, so that could change.

Team of the Week: Gonzaga continues to roll through the West Coast Conference. The Zags have won nine consecutive games, a run that includes a 17-point win over Saint Mary’s on Valentine’s Day. They don’t have the week-to-week competition that their top-10 counterparts face each week, but if they continue to win -- and the No. 3 Zags might not lose again until March Madness begins -- the selection committee might have to give the program a No. 1 seed.

Player of the Week: Longwood’s Tristan Carey put up video game numbers during his team’s last two games, both wins. In a 76-61 victory over Radford on Saturday, he finished with 31 points, 10 rebounds, two blocks and two steals in 36 minutes. The 6-foot-4 guard recorded 40 points, 12 rebounds and two steals while going 8-for-15 from the 3-point line in his team’s 102-101 win over Liberty on Tuesday.

Notes

• Indiana State is probably the most vulnerable bubble team playing in BracketBusters on Saturday. The Sycamores have wins over Miami, Ole Miss, Creighton and Wichita State, yet they’ve also lost to the worst teams in the Missouri Valley Conference and jeopardized their bubble status. Iona is one of the top offensive squads in the country (81.5 ppg), and their 9-7 record in the MAAC is deceiving since they’ve lost five games by three points or fewer since Jan. 31. The Sycamores cannot afford to take a loss in this one.
• Let’s talk about Siyani Chambers. Harvard’s freshman point guard is averaging 13.0 points, 6.0 assists and 1.4 steals a game for a Crimson squad that’s on top of the Ivy League. The latter was not a given after former standouts Kyle Casey and Brandyn Curry left the program before the season following an academic scandal. But the young catalyst could lead Tommy Amaker’s program back to the NCAA tournament. It would be a surprising turn for a program that lost its best players before 2012-13 began.
• Taylor Braun (15.2 ppg) will probably miss North Dakota State’s matchup at Akron on Friday. But the Bison’s leading scorer could return as early as next week from a foot injury. That’s significant for the entire Summit League, and not just because the Bison are a game behind conference leader South Dakota State with one more league game to play. The winner of the conference tourney will be the only team representing this league in the NCAA tournament. Add Braun to a Bison team that’s ranked 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency per Pomeroy and this squad might be the favorite to win it.