Men's College Basketball Nation: Big 12

Remember when the 2013-14 Kansas Jayhawks were going to be a shaky proposition? I do!

Just two weeks ago, Kansas was the team losing all five of last season's starters, among them four seniors and one freshman top-five draft pick. Left in their wake was an unusually young team. Sophomore Perry Ellis would have to be a star. Naadir Tharpe would have to develop into a less erratic distributor. A crop of promising freshmen would have to step up right away.

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Tarik Black
Rick Osentoski/USA TODAY SportsTarik Black averaged 8.1 points and 4.8 rebounds per game for Memphis last season.
After nine straight titles, Kansas' stranglehold on the top of the Big 12 must be taken as an article of faith. But with Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart back, and Baylor looking plenty talented in its own right, said stranglehold appeared to be straining at the knuckles. Would this finally be the year?

Those were the days, weren't they? Of course, that was before Kansas landed arguably the best young prospect in the past decade in Andrew Wiggins, and also before Monday evening's news that Memphis senior Tarik Black had chosen to play his final year of collegiate eligibility -- available immediately via the graduate transfer exemption -- in Lawrence, Kan.

Black's decision is more icing than cake. Whereas Wiggins was a revolutionary addition, by all accounts the type of player who could have lifted an 18-16 Florida State team into ACC title contention, Black is merely a nice bonus. Which is not to say he isn't talented. He is, and always has been. But after arriving as a highly touted prospect, he was disappointing in three seasons at Memphis, primarily thanks to his inability to stay out of foul trouble. Over three seasons, Black averaged 5.7 fouls per 40 minutes. His lowest rate, 5.1 as a sophomore in 2011-12, also coincided with his most efficient performances. His 68.9 effective field goal percentage was the second-highest in the country that season.

Whether or not Black will be able to stay on the court long enough to put his combination of skills and size to work is an open question, but it's almost beside the point. Kansas needed another big body, not a star, and preferably a veteran. Black should be able to play 20-25 effective minutes, when he can take some pressure off the nation's top-ranked incoming center, Joel Embiid. That's a baseline expectation KU coach Bill Self would surely be happy with. Anything else is, again, a bonus.

In any case, any thoughts you might have had about the Jayhawks two weeks ago are essentially irrelevant. Kansas is still young, sure, but not as young as it was. It is more talented than ever now, with the exact thing it lacked -- a veteran in the frontcourt -- signed up for the ride. The end result is another KU team that will enter the season as the Big 12 favorite and a national title contenders. Same as it ever was.
The Champions Classic, a two-game, one-night November event conjured up two years ago, was pretty much always guaranteed to be a success. Indeed, it was just what the sport needed -- a big, marquee event featuring four of the game's best programs and coaches in the first week of the season, timed to remind casual fans there is more to college basketball than the gradually increasing attention spans of late February and early March.

Two years later, the Champions Classic has already been an unequivocal success. In its first year, Duke's Mike Krzyzewski broke the all-time coaching wins record against Tom Izzo and Kentucky and Kansas offered up an early preview of the national title matchup. In Year 2, the defending champs and their coach, John Calipari, met Duke in Atlanta, the site of the 2013 Final Four.

And despite those heights, Year 3 might be the best yet.

The Classic's rotating schedule creates new matchups each season, and so here's what we'll have in United Center on Nov. 12: Kentucky will play Michigan State, while Duke will play Kansas. You probably don't need me to explain why this is so exciting, but just in case you do, here goes: UK-MSU will be one of our first glimpses at the 2013-14 Kentucky Wildcats, who boast the best recruiting class in history, against a Michigan State team that returned all of its most talented players and looks primed for a Final Four run. Watching Adreian Payne and Gary Harris test their NBA readiness chops against the Harrison Twins, Julius Randle and James Young? Yes and please.

And even that game pales in comparison to what's offered in Duke-KU, which can be summed up in one phrase: Andrew Wiggins vs. Jabari Parker. This might be the only minor angle left undiscussed in Wiggins' Tuesday decision to play his one year of college ball at Kansas: It set up an early-season matchup with Parker, the No. 2 player in the class, who was No. 1 for years before Wiggins reclassified last fall.

At worst, that's a great game between two exciting teams with two brilliant young stars. At best, it's a preview of the next decade of basketball, the start of an individual rivalry not unlike the one between Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James during the 2003 NBA draft and their first few years in the league. Wiggins is often favorably (and unfairly!) compared to James; Parker's frame and game bear obvious parallels with Anthony's. The similarities are uncanny.

The Champions Classic was devised as a way to get ultra-recognizable college basketball "brands" in the same building on the same night in November. It's foolproof: With Duke, Kentucky, Kansas and Michigan State on board, you're bound to get great players and great games.

But the best part is these matchups aren't planned, no more so Coach K's historic night was planned for a mid-November date at Madison Square Garden. Whether a team is down or a national title favorite, whether Wiggins chooses Kansas or Kentucky or Florida State, the games are what they are. And in 2013, they're going to be incredible.

Podcast: Kansas Jayhawks coach Bill Self

May, 15, 2013
May 15
1:10
PM ET
Kansas coach Bill Self dishes on Andrew Wiggins' decision to join the Jayhawks, Wiggins' potential, the one-and-done rule and more.
1. Texas lost 18 games last season. The Longhorns won seven in the Big 12 and were shut out of the NCAA tournament for the first time since head coach Rick Barnes arrived in 1998. Sheldon McClellan and Julien Lewis were third and fourth, respectively, on the team last season in turnovers with a combined 112 and are both transferring. Jaylen Bond, who battled a foot problem for most of the season, also left. According to a source, the decisions weren’t solely the players'. Should Texas be worried that these three, as well as NBA-draft-bound guard Myck Kabongo (23-game amateurism suspension), are out of the program? If last season’s freshmen class is on board with the way Barnes wants to play, the answer is no. Ioannis Papapetrou, Javan Felix, Connor Lammert, Demarcus Holland, Prince Ibeh and Jonathan Holmes will be the core of next season’s team. Holland clearly likes the idea of what remains in Austin. He tweeted after a workout on April 30: “Honestly never loved a team like I do now. Feels great when you can get it in, say family on three, and really feel like brothers. #Horns.’’ At the time, Bond, McClellan and Kabongo were all gone. Barnes told his staff that he wants to get back to the teams he has had in the past, with players who will play with toughness and display the passion for winning. According to someone close to the program, despite the defections, the staff has looked at this spring as one of its best in terms of player development. The Longhorns also brought in four newcomers for next season. Texas will be picked in the lower half of the league, below Kansas, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas State. The onus is on this crew, led by someone like Holland, to propel Texas back to its rightful place in the Big 12, in competition behind Kansas. If these departures are addition by subtraction, Barnes will know early on. If not, next season could seem like a dog year.

2. Michigan State athletic director Mark Hollis said there were logistical issues that could not be worked out for the proposed Dec. 7 game against Gonzaga in Spokane, Wash., to honor former Spartans coach and Spokane resident Jud Heathcote. So the game is off -- along with the proposed undercard of Washington State versus Montana. Wazzu coach Ken Bone said Idaho had been willing to move a date for the Cougars, but now that is unnecessary. Meanwhile, an SEC official said the league didn’t have criteria for not including Georgia, LSU, Arkansas and Tennessee in the inaugural SEC/Big 12 Challenge. Scheduling conflicts and the need to balance the series were why those four schools were omitted in a challenge between a 14-team SEC and a 10-team Big 12. Still, organizers probably could have tried to get star-laden Oklahoma State a higher-profile game than hosting rebuilding South Carolina.

3. Gonzaga coach Mark Few said being away from his family was the reason he is stepping aside from coaching the U.S. under-19 team with Florida’s Billy Donovan and Virginia Commonwealth's Shaka Smart in the world championships June 27-July 7 in Prague. Along with the practice sessions, it becomes nearly a month's commitment. The three coaches won gold a year ago in Brazil with the under-18 squad. Virginia coach Tony Bennett will take Few’s spot on the staff. In an event taking place July 6-17 in Kazan, Russia, Davidson’s Bob McKillop, Michigan’s John Beilein and South Carolina’s Frank Martin will coach the U.S. team at the World University Games. Meanwhile, Iowa State’s Melvin Ejim is diversifying his international basketball career. Cyclones coach Fred Hoiberg said Ejim will play for Canada this summer after playing for Nigeria a year ago. Hoiberg said Ejim has dual citizenship from the two nations.
No, we're not talking about the imbeciles on Twitter, the people who take time out of their day to write horrible things to an 18-year-old kid because he chose to attend a school different from the one they root for (and probably didn't even attend themselves). Hopefully Andrew Wiggins has paid no attention to those remarks. If he hasn't, I assume -- based on the impressive way he handled his surprising decision to attend Kansas on Tuesday -- he's already possessed of more perspective and maturity than any of the grown men and women wishing him ill on Twitter. Let's ignore these people, shall we?

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Andrew Wiggins
Mike DiNovo/USA TODAY SportsAndrew Wiggins will wear a large bull's-eye while at Kansas next season.
Indeed, I'm talking about the rest of college basketball. Now that we know where Wiggins will play his one year of college hoops -- for Bill Self in Lawrence, Kan. -- we can extrapolate so much more. We can talk about what kind of lineup will suit Wiggins best, how his versatility will help a young Kansas team compensate for the loss of five starters and a rush of inexperienced newcomers playing big minutes and key roles previously occupied by seniors. And, perhaps most exciting, Kansas' nonconference and Big 12 opponents can begin circling dates on their calendars. Wigginsmas comes more than once a year.

Dana O'Neil hit on this in her column as to the pressure Wiggins will continue to face even after the compressed insanity surrounding his decision fades. As Dana wrote, Wiggins has impossibly high (though not unfair!) expectations to live up to next season, and any slip-ups or false starts will spawn any number of national overreactions. The general, vague pressure -- pressure from fans, pressure to live up to billing -- will be there from now until next April. It isn't going away.

There is a more specific kind of pressure, the kind Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg described to Andy Katz after Wiggins made his decision Tuesday:
"When you go against a guy compared to LeBron James, that's a once-in-a-lifetime experience for a lot of guys in our league," Hoiberg said. "The hype surrounding him is the main story. I'm sure everyone is taking note of that and the opportunity to play against him."

Allow me to translate for the unflinchingly polite native Iowan: We're all coming for Andrew Wiggins.

This is hardly a surprise. Every college player in the country knows who Wiggins is. They know what people say about him. They've heard the comparisons. They know he's already a near-lock to go No. 1 in the 2014 NBA draft. No one is going to be scared. Most are going to be convinced they're better than Wiggins, that all of their hard work and college basketball experience adds up to more than his talent. Any team with Kansas on its schedule just got an extra reason to put a bull's-eye on the Jayhawks' back.

This is nothing new for Kansas, of course, and it's nothing new for Wiggins, who has been the best player on the court in every possible setting -- the target of other players' attempts to boost their own profile at every recruiting event and high school game -- for as long as he can remember. But college basketball isn't easy for even the most talented freshmen. Imagine how much harder it must be when every single player in the country wants to prove you aren't as good as everyone seems to think you are.

That is the challenge Wiggins faces in 2013-14. It's not just high expectations and scrutiny from fans. It's not just about accomplishing as much as possible in a short period of time. It's about playing an entire freshman season with a target on your back, about being specifically challenged by every opponent every time you put on a uniform. It's the pressure of taking everyone's best shot every night. It's the peril of superstardom.

I can't decide which is bigger: Wiggins' challenge, or the potential thrill of seeing him take it on. All I know is November can't come soon enough.
Fred Hoiberg is not the only coach who’s guiding his alma mater.

But few, if any, boast the connection that Hoiberg has to Iowa State.

He was born in Ames. He walked to Cyclones games when he was a kid. His father worked for the university.

So when it was time to pick a school, the multi-sport standout chose to stay home and star for his hometown team.

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Fred Hoiberg
Jamie Rhodes/USA TODAY SportsFred Hoiberg hasn't just brought wins and NCAA tourney trips to Iowa State. He's brought stability.
That’s why they now call him “The Mayor.”

But his success with the Cyclones has made him one of the most coveted coaches on the college circuit. And he just turned 40.

The Cyclones tried to keep schools away with the 10-year, $20 million contract he signed last month. That contract reportedly contains a $2 million buyout clause. Terms were unveiled on Tuesday.

From ESPN.com:
Hoiberg agreed to a new 10-year, $20 million deal in March after leading Iowa State to back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances.

Hoiberg would essentially owe a year's salary to Iowa State if he leaves for another school. Hoiberg's buyout will be just $500,000 if he accepts a job as a head coach or general manager in the NBA.

Hoiberg also receives $250,000 for reaching the Final Four and $100,000 for winning or tying for the Big 12 regular season title.

Any college program that wants Hoiberg will be forced to pay. That’s a lot of money on the surface.

But in big-time college athletics, it’s not an insurmountable amount for any team that really wants Hoiberg.

And if he continues to succeed with his current program, other schools will continue to call.

His new contract, however, suggests that he’s prepared to stay in Ames for a long time … unless the NBA calls.

Hoiberg could ultimately turn pro.

During our conversation in Ames a few months ago, he mentioned that he initially thought he’d begin his career in the NBA.

And I honestly believe that’s his next step. The buyout might deter college teams, but the NBA -- he was an executive with the Minnesota Timberwolves after he retired in 2006 due to a heart condition -- could be his final destination.

I think Hoiberg is one of the top young head coaches in America. He’s led the Cyclones to consecutive NCAA tournament appearances. And he’s enhanced the program’s recruiting pool.

But he’s an NBA coach or executive.

Maybe not in the near future. I think he will end his career there, though.

The $500,000 sum -- if he leaves to join an NBA franchise -- is peanuts for the billionaires who run the NBA.

That’s just the truth.

Any program needs the stability Hoiberg has given Iowa State.

On Tuesday, Washington announced that former Iowa State assistant and associate head coach T.J. Otzelberger had left the program for an assistant position with the Huskies. That’s a big loss for the Cyclones.

This, however, is not a fractured program. Hoiberg has created a culture of consistency and continuity in Ames. That’s why the Cyclones offered him a long-term deal. That’s why folks avoid panic when a top assistant takes another job -- at least, they shouldn’t panic with a solid program.

But I don’t believe the door is closed on a Hoiberg departure.

Now, I don’t think Hoiberg would bolt -- at the collegiate level -- for just any school. I think the blue-chip programs might have a shot at him.

But that $2 million won’t stop them or their deep-pocketed boosters from pursuing him. And I don’t think it would stop Hoiberg if he had to come up with most or all of that money. He made millions in the NBA. And per friends, he’s an astute businessman (he owns multiple car dealerships).

When rumors connecting him to Minnesota percolated last month, I never thought he’d actually leave. And he didn’t.

Hoiberg will not leave Iowa State for any trivial reason or opportunity. When we talked, he said he loved the fact that his kids had both sets of grandparents in town. He has everything he wants and needs in Ames. No reason to leave right now.

It’s going to take a lot to make him consider a move.

That $2 million buyout, however, does not guarantee anything. It’s security for a fan base that wants him to stay forever.

The $500,000 payback if he takes an NBA gig? Meaningless amount of money if Hoiberg really wants a job at that level.

Perhaps he will stay in Ames forever.

But this is just the beginning of his coaching career. More offers may come.

And the right opportunity could end Hoiberg’s time in Ames, as unbelievable as that seems right now.

His contract buyout clauses suggest, however, that the opportunity would be at the pro level, not on another campus.
1. Colorado didn't burn any bridges when it left the Big 12 and the Buffaloes are taking advantage of the relationships to schedule quality nonconference games for a team that should make the NCAA tournament in 2014. The Buffaloes already get Kansas in the return game of a home-and-home series with their former Big 12 rival. Colorado coach Tad Boyle then searched for an opponent to play at the MGM Grand -- site of the Pac-12 tournament -- on Dec. 20. Boyle locked in Oklahoma State, a team likely to be picked to win the Big 12. The Buffaloes now have the potential to have two top 10-15 nonconference games by scheduling KU and OSU. The Buffs already had scheduled Front Range games against Wyoming at home and Colorado State and Air Force on the road -- both extremely difficult stops. Boyle said he's trying to add one more neutral site game and one more home-and-home series as well as two other guaranteed games. Meanwhile, the Buffs, who lost Andre Roberson early to the NBA draft, are getting great reviews on incoming freshmen Jaron Hopkins and Dustin Thomas.

2. Oregon is getting creative with its schedule for a team that should be, like Colorado, in the upper half of the Pac-12 in 2014. Oregon coach Dana Altman said the Ducks have signed up with a new home-and-home series with Ole Miss, starting in Oxford. That game should have some sensational guards with Ole Miss' Marshall Henderson and the Ducks' backcourt of Dominic Artis and Damyean Dotson. Oregon is also playing Illinois in the Rose Garden in Portland with a return game the following season at the United Center in Chicago. BYU is also coming to Eugene. This schedule gives the Ducks bubble teams to start the season. The Ducks' willingness to go to Oxford should be applauded since few teams look to play the Rebels at home. This is a win-win for both schools.

3. An attorney who specializes in NCAA cases said late Monday night that it would be impossible for any school to influence and/or police the behavior of an extended family or coach of a student athlete. The school is supposed to promote compliance to the player and his immediate family. But the Ben McLemore case is an example of how hard it would be to check on whether a third-party is profiting to steer a client to an agent without the player coming forward that he was on the take, too. But having the NCAA investigate is still never a good sign because they can find information relative to the case that can spur other issues. "You never want the enforcement staff to look at you,'' said the attorney. "But this isn't a case of a recruiting violation. It's hard to say in this case that Kansas should be expected to police and monitor the actors in this case.''

Video: Kansas reviews McLemore situation

May, 6, 2013
May 6
10:31
PM ET
video
Myron Medcalf breaks down Kansas athletic officials reviewing allegations that the former AAU coach of Ben McLemore received payments aimed at steering him to a sports agent.
1. The Mountain West Conference met last week in Phoenix to go over an 18-game schedule for next season with an 11-team league they weren't expecting to originally have a year ago. Boise State and San Diego State returned to the league, or rather never left, instead of going to the Big East. The league was already planning on adding Utah State and San Jose State. And with the league coming off a record percentage of five out of nine teams making the NCAA tournament field, the conference had to take advantage of the momentum. The San Diego Union-Tribune first put out what will be the new scheduling format for this league -- ensuring the top teams play each other twice in an unbalanced schedule. This is what the Big East did for years to satisfy television partners CBS and ESPN. And with the same television partners, that's exactly what is going to happen in the MWC, too. The Tribune reported the vote was 8-3 by the coaches to do a random schedule. But the athletic directors overruled the coaches and with good reason. The networks want/need the top teams to play twice. That means you're almost guaranteed to see San Diego State, UNLV and New Mexico playing twice so that CBS, which picks first, and ESPN each get one of the matchups. While this means lesser-profile teams in the league, like Utah State, may not have as hard of a schedule, the aforementioned teams will ultimately have a stronger power rating. Schools will play eight teams twice and two teams once. The MWC had the perfect model with a nine-team, 16-game round-robin schedule. A 10-team, 18-game round-robin is even more perfect like the Big 12. But an 11-team, 18-game schedule where the projected top teams play twice for television is the best scenario for a league that wants to continue to be relevant.

2. The Big 12 met in Phoenix last week, too, and discussed scheduling concerns for West Virginia and its travel issues in the league after its first year. Commissioner Bob Bowlsby and the athletic directors were in agreement to support the Mountaineers in any way. Translation: The conference will look at having West Virginia stay on the road for two consecutive road games in a short amount of time to reduce the number of long road trips for the Mountaineers. West Virginia wants to avoid having to go back to Texas or Texas and Oklahoma or Texas and Iowa over a Wednesday to a Saturday time period. The solution could be for West Virginia to play a Saturday-Monday or a Saturday-Tuesday road trip, which had been avoided in the past by the Big 12. This has been the norm for the Pac-12 where teams stay on the road for multiple games. West Virginia finished 6-12 in its first season in the Big 12, 13-19 overall. West Virginia played in three sets of consecutive road games. The first was scheduled by West Virginia on Jan. 16 (Iowa State) and Purdue in a nonconference game (Jan. 19). The two Big 12 back-to-back road games were spread out over a four-day period against TCU (Feb. 9) and Baylor (Feb. 13) and Kansas (March 2) and Oklahoma (March 6). The only one of those road games the Mountaineers won was TCU.

3. The sad reality of the Ben McLemore story reported by USA Today is how third-party officials try to make money off of players. This is unfortunately not a new norm. As a Division I member school official said, family members can accept gifts because they can and most don't know the rules, or in some cases, care. Policing these "deals" is almost impossible for the NCAA. Trying to steer players toward an agent has happened before and it is likely to happen again. It's too hard to project what, if anything, will happen to Kansas or McLemore's eligibility from the previous year. He was going to leave for the NBA regardless of what someone was going to do because he was projected as a top-five pick. This will come down to whether or not he knew there was any gifts or payments on his behalf or if he accepted anything directly.
The NBA draft early entry deadline has passed, so we now have a solid image of what most teams will look like in 2013-14. Recruits have signed letters of intent, many transfers have picked new schools, coaches have been hired and fired, and standout players have announced whether they’ll enter the NBA draft or remain in school for another season.

Now that the smoke has cleared, it appears that the four teams that competed for the national title in Atlanta last month possess the potential to reach Arlington, Texas, for next season’s Final Four. What are the chances that Syracuse, Louisville, Michigan and Wichita State will get back there?

(In order of probability on a scale of 1-10)
  1. Louisville (Chances: 9) -- For a few weeks, Louisville’s future was an uncertain one. First, Russ Smith had decided to leave, according to his father. Then he admitted he wasn’t exactly sure what he would do. But he ultimately chose another year at Louisville. The guard struggled in the national title game, but he was a force throughout the NCAA tournament. With Smith in charge, there’s no reason to doubt that Louisville will compete in Cowboys Stadium next season in its third consecutive Final Four run. Yes, the Cardinals have lost two critical players in Peyton Siva and Gorgui Dieng. But five-star recruit Terry Rozier and Chris Jones, who was recently named NABC junior college player of the year, will be ready to log major minutes for Rick Pitino’s program in 2013-14. And Chane Behanan should be on a lot of preseason All-American charts. Montrezl Harrell did things in the Big Dance that showcased a glimpse of his ability. Plus, Wayne Blackshear and Luke Hancock, the Final Four’s most outstanding player, will be back, too. There’s a lot of Kentucky buzz right now. But the Cardinals should be able to compete against any team in America next season.
  2. Michigan (Chances: 8 ) -- They should be celebrating in Ann Arbor right now. Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson III could have been first-round picks in this summer’s NBA draft. Their decision to come back for their sophomore seasons will help the Wolverines maintain their status as Big Ten contenders. Robinson will be a more prominent factor in John Beilein’s offense next year. And McGary will be one of the best big men in America. Now, let’s discuss the question. How do you replace Trey Burke? I’m not dismissing Tim Hardaway Jr.’s contributions to the program. But it’s much easier to find scorers than leaders. The Wolverines have enough talent returning (Spike Albrecht, Nik Stauskas and Jon Horford) and coming (Derrick Walton, Zak Irvin and Mark Donnal are all top-100 kids per RecruitingNation) to support the notion that they could make another Final Four appearance in 2013-14. But how will Beilein replace Burke and his intangibles? I had the same question about Kansas last season. When the Jayhawks lost Thomas Robinson, they lost more than a player. He was the soul of the program. They were missing his leadership more than anything last season. Michigan could find itself in the same position next year. I’ve heard great things about Walton. But Burke was special. Without him, the Wolverines still have Final Four talent. But it will be difficult to rally in the postseason if they don’t identify a player(s) to take on Burke’s leadership role as the season approaches.
  3. Syracuse (Chances: 7) -- Here’s what we learned about Jim Boeheim in 2012-13 … again. He always finds another player to step in and contribute when necessary. Yes, the losses of a dynamic starting point guard Michael Carter-Williams, guard Brandon Triche and forward James Southerland would be devastating for most programs. But I doubt Boeheim is concerned. He has C.J. Fair, who was potent for the Orange in the tourney. And when given the chance to play a bigger role after Southerland was suspended for academic issues, Jerami Grant looked like a young star. Baye Keita, Rakeem Christmas and DaJuan Coleman give Syracuse the length and athleticism that will boost the 2-3 zone that opponents hate. Plus, Tyler Ennis anchors a recruiting class that’s ranked sixth overall by RecruitingNation. But there’s a lot of pressure on Ennis. Carter-Williams will be a lottery pick. He was a confident and versatile threat for Syracuse. Ennis probably will fill the void Syracuse now has at point guard. Can he do it? Well, that’s the story of this team. Boeheim will be forced to rely on players who weren’t major factors last season. The good news? That’s the story of Syracuse every season. Carter-Williams averaged 2.7 PPG in 2011-12. He’ll make millions in a few months. Again, Boeheim just turns to the next person in line and says, “You’re up.” And his guys respond to that challenge. So when weighing Syracuse’s chances of reaching the Final Four next season, it’s important to consider that pattern. This team has lost a lot. But it will still be a national contender in 2013-14.
  4. Wichita State (Chances: 6) -- Gregg Marshall piloted the most exciting postseason story in the country in March/April. Wichita State had failed to win the Missouri Valley Conference regular season or tournament titles. Yet, they thrived on their experience and underrated talent as they rallied to the Final Four. The Shockers' success seemed to materialize from nothing. But it was actually more logical than that. Marshall wrestled with multiple injuries throughout the season. And in the weeks leading up to the NCAA tournament, Wichita State finally had a (somewhat) healthy roster. With NCAA tourney star Cleanthony Early, Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet returning, the Shockers will be the favorites to win the MVC. Could they pull off a Butler and make back-to-back Final Four appearances? Yep. But it seems tough to project that level of success for a squad that has major holes to fill with the loss of veterans Carl Hall, Malcolm Armstead and Ehimen Orukpe. But Marshall brings back the other key pieces that fueled that rally to Atlanta. And Evan Wessel was a starter before he broke his hand and eventually redshirted. Tekele Cotton was solid throughout the postseason, too. Incoming players Kadeem Coleby (Louisiana-Lafayette transfer), Shaquille Morris (three-star recruit) and Earl Watson will give Marshall the size he’ll need in the post. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Shockers play their way to Arlington next season. But they have more questions to answer than any other squad on this list.
Youth has reigned in the one-and-done era.

Tim Duncan and other former collegiate veterans were praised as mature prospects when they turned pro nearly 20 years ago.

In the 2012 NBA draft, however, five of the first 10 picks were selected following their first and only season of NCAA basketball.

That’s not surprising given the value NBA execs have placed on potential in the one-and-done era. But it has also spawned myths about the benefits of college experience.

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Golden State's Draymond Green
Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY SportsDraymond Green has been an important player for the Warriors during the playoffs.
The latter seems to do more harm for future pros today. We can go down the list of players who were better prospects as freshmen and sophomores than they were as juniors and seniors.

For NBA scouts, those extra seasons can become additional time for scrutiny. The kid with the smooth jump shot in Year 1 might be the second-year man who’s not as athletic as he appeared to be a year ago.

By the time they’re juniors and seniors, they’ve lost the NBA value they’d appeared to possess earlier in their careers -- even if they improved over time.

But there’s still a place for guys who decide to stay in college for three or four years.

Proof? The NBA playoffs.

This year’s opening round has been nothing short of sports theatre.

And some of the performances of young athletes who’ve played pivotal roles on playoff rosters have countered misperceptions about upperclassmen.

Kenneth Faried (four years at Morehead State) is a critical player for the Denver Nuggets. Young star Stephen Curry played for three years at Davidson.

Chandler Parsons, who’s averaging 16.8 PPG in the playoffs for the Houston Rockets, played for four seasons at Florida.

Jeff Green, a three-year competitor at Georgetown, is one of the key reasons that the Boston Celtics are still alive against the New York Knicks.

Ty Lawson was overlooked by many teams following three seasons and a national title run at North Carolina. But he’s leading the Nuggets in scoring in the postseason (22.2 PPG).

Even former All-American Draymond Green has found a spot in Mark Jackson’s rotation with the Warriors.

From the Lansing State Journal:
Green figures to play a key role as the Warriors try to close out the series. Forward David Lee’s hip injury has given Green more minutes and he has capitalized. He had a career-high 13 points to go with six rebounds and four assists, playing in crunch time during Golden State’s 115-101 win in Game 4.

“You have to really pay attention and know the game to appreciate what (Green) does on the floor," Jackson told the San Jose Mercury News afterward. "It was funny to me that people would ask why he was in the game in Game 1. The guy is a winner, he's a competitor, he cares, he works his tail off, and he's going to be a coach in this league or somewhere. The guy was a coach when we drafted him. He could do that today if he wanted to. That's how good he is and how smart he is."

A few years ago, former NBA coach Flip Saunders told me that Green was the most intelligent college basketball player he’d ever encountered.

He was a second round pick. But his time at Michigan State gave him the tools he needed to make an impact in the most critical moment of his team’s season.

The aforementioned players didn’t have some of the flash of their younger peers, many of whom were selected earlier in their respective drafts. But they’ve endured the grind of the NBA. And they’ve utilized their maturity and basketball IQs to find spots in the league.

That’s not easy to do. But their trajectories prove that it’s possible.

I think Green and Co. should make other young players think twice about leaving college early.

Their time in college is certainly paying off right now.
I know, I know.

More Kentucky hype. Enough is enough already, right?

Well ... no.

John Calipari has signed five of the top-9 prospects in America (Julius Randle, Aaron Harrison, Andrew Harrison, Dakari Johnson and James Young), according to RecruitingNation. And Marcus Lee is one of six McDonald’s All-Americans in that class. Plus, Alex Poythress, Kyle Wiltjer and Willie Cauley-Stein will return.

That’s just ridiculous. And consensus No. 1 prep talent Andrew Wiggins ... gulp ... might choose the Wildcats, too.

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John Calipari
Andy Lyons/Getty ImagesJohn Calipari's Wildcats face a nonconference schedule that includes Michigan State, North Carolina and defending champion Louisville.
Yes, Kentucky will be the No. 1 team in America once preseason rankings are released in the coming months. I don’t understand any arguments against that.

But, we won’t have to wait too long to see if these Wildcats will justify the preseason buzz.

On Wednesday afternoon, the school released its nonconference schedule through its Twitter feed.

John Calipari teased the slate with this tweet: “It's once again an elite schedule, but that's the standard here. It looks like we'll play several top teams.”

That’s no overstatement.

Here are the highlights (Yes, we knew about some of these games months ago):

Kentucky vs. Michigan State (Chicago), Nov. 12: Whoa. So, we might see the top two squads in the country compete against one another in the State Farm Champions Classic in Chicago, huh? We know what Kentucky has. But the Spartans are going to be a force, too. With Adreian Payne and Gary Harris returning, Tom Izzo has a team with Final Four potential. How will the Big Ten contenders handle this young Kentucky crew that’s packed with NBA talent? We’ll see.

Kentucky vs. Robert Morris (Lexington), Nov. 17: The Wildcats clearly want payback for last year’s embarrassing NIT loss. The Wildcats commenced last season with a national ranking. They ended last season with a first-round NIT loss against Robert Morris. It was a fitting conclusion for last year’s disaster. But this is not last year’s team. Pay attention to the pregame buzz. Calipari and Co. will say that this is “just another game.” And then they’ll go out there and try to beat the Colonials by 50.

Kentucky vs. Baylor (Arlington), Dec. 6: I’ve been pumped about this one since it was announced last year. It will be held at Cowboys Stadium. That helps. Projections for Baylor changed recently when both Cory Jefferson and Isaiah Austin announced that they will return for another season. That makes this matchup more intriguing. The venue has fueled most of the hype. But Kentucky should be on upset alert entering this matchup.

Kentucky at North Carolina (Chapel Hill), Dec. 14: Wiggins could be a factor in this matchup. The Canadian standout could choose either school. But even if he doesn’t, this is still a high-profile battle. Last season, the Tar Heels failed to achieve the results that the program has historically produced under Roy Williams. They had matchup problems throughout the season because they didn’t have the inside-outside balance they’ll possess in 2013-14. But incoming freshmen Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks should give Williams such much-needed size and enhance their chances of defeating the Wildcats. And Chapel Hill will be on fire with anticipation for this game.

Kentucky vs. Louisville (Lexington), Dec. 28: You don’t really need an introduction for this one. We all know about the rivalry. But right now, the Cardinals are kings. They’re the national champs. And they’re returning some of the key players who fueled that title run. But the game returns to Lexington in 2013-14. The Wildcats just weren’t on Louisville’s level last season. This, however, should be a more competitive matchup than last season’s meeting. And again, we’re talking about a pair of squads that might be ranked first and second in the preseason rankings. Get your popcorn ready.
ESPN.com has learned efforts are underway to tip off the upcoming basketball season with a multigame event featuring some of the nation's top teams at the American Airlines Center in Dallas -- just 20 minutes from the site of the 2014 Final Four.

The one-day event -- which could feature as many as four games -- would be run by bd Global, the same group that put on last season's Texas-UCLA game in Houston. Details are still being finalized, so bd Global president Brooks Downing declined to name potential participants.

"We're still tying up some loose ends," Downing told ESPN.com, "but hopefully we'll be able to announce something soon."

Downing did acknowledge that as many as half the participants could be from Big 12 schools (such as Baylor, Texas or Oklahoma State, for example), which have large fan bases in or near the Dallas area. The rest of the teams would be nationally known programs from outside the region.

"We want this to serve as the tipoff to the season," Downing said. "The plan is to generate a lot of excitement and hype about college basketball in the city that's hosting the Final Four."

The 2014 Final Four will be played at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, just 18 miles from Dallas.

If the November event is a success, Downing said bd Global likely will stage something similar each fall in the city slated to host the Final Four. The 2015 Final Four will be in Indianapolis before shifting to Houston in 2016.
1. Baylor coach Scott Drew could have had a myriad problems had he lost Cory Jefferson and Isaiah Austin to the NBA draft. Instead, Drew's primary offseason focus is what to do at the point. He has plenty of time to discuss, dissect and analyze over the summer, but his first inkling is to go with a combination of Gary Franklin and Brady Heslip to offset the departure of Pierre Jackson. Other options for Drew are Kenny Chery, a newcomer, or L.J. Rose, who was on the team last season. This is a critical upcoming year for the Bears. The disappointment last season of not making the NCAA tournament was softened by the NIT championship. Now that Jefferson and Austin have returned, there is no excuse if the Bears don't make the 2014 field. The Big 12 will be down a bit with Oklahoma State and Kansas as the top two teams. Baylor has the personnel to beat out Iowa State, Kansas State and Oklahoma. But the onus will be on consistent play upfront and a stable point guard.

2. The UMass-Lowell job is open after Greg Herenda took the head coaching position at Fairleigh Dickinson. The Riverhawks are joining the America East next season but have a four-year waiting period to become eligible for postseason. North Dakota State is one of the best models for how to make this transition when Tim Miles and Saul Phillips set up the Bison to make the NCAAs in their first eligible year in 2009. Bryant University handled a similar transition, and while the Bulldogs didn't make the NCAAs in their first eligible year, Bryant spent a good portion of the 2012-13 season atop the NEC and ended up earning a berth in the CBI. The Riverhawks now have to follow a similar path and to do so have a shot to look at area schools for coaching talent. Former Boston College coach Al Skinner, his former assistant and current Northeastern assistant Pat Duquette and current Emerson head coach Jim O'Brien, who was the head coach at BC prior to Skinner, all could be in the mix for this position, according to sources. This is hardly a headline position, but everyone jumping up from Division II to I wants to make a splash. The America East grabbed UMass-Lowell to replace Boston University in the hope it can penetrate the Boston market, making it even more imperative to win the new conference with a coach that has local ties.

3. Ray McCallum Jr. announced his decision to declare for the NBA draft last week but it got lost amid other headline names making the tough call to stay or go. But don't dismiss the Detroit guard as an afterthought. McCallum Jr. could have easily gone to UCLA but chose to play for his father Ray at Detroit. McCallum will be an intriguing prospect to monitor throughout the team workouts and in Chicago over the next two months. Each decision is personal and that's why to guess what direction a player would go in this process is extremely difficult. McCallum chose to leave his dad's team and head to the NBA. Doug McDermott decided to stay and play for his dad at Creighton for one more year. McCallum, though, could very well end up being a higher pick in a draft that needs quality ball handlers.
Just about everyone in Waco, Texas assumed Isaiah Austin had played his last game in a Baylor uniform. And until last week, they were probably correct.

Austin, a 7-foot-1 center, was projected as a mid-to-late first-round pick in this summer’s NBA draft and had given no indication to his coaches or teammates that he would return to school. Things changed Sunday, though, when Austin announced he’d be back for his sophomore season.

So what happened?

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Isaiah Austin
Kevin Jairaj/US PresswireIsaiah Austin will return to Baylor for his sophomore season.
A source told ESPN.com Sunday that an MRI performed late last week revealed Austin had torn the posterior labrum in one of his shoulders. The source said the injury would have prevented Austin from going through individual workouts with NBA teams during the next few months.

Austin’s shoulder issues wouldn’t have been as big of a deal if he were tabbed as a top-10 pick. But because he was projected to go in the early-to-mid 20s, Austin needed the workouts to make a positive impression on teams and solidify his status as a first-rounder. First-round picks receive guaranteed three-year contracts. Second-round picks are promised nothing.

Austin didn’t want to risk it.

“Today might have literally been the worst day of my life,” Austin tweeted Friday, the same day he is said to have received the MRI results. “Actually, it is the worst day.”

Baylor coach Scott Drew -- reached on his cell phone shortly after meeting with Austin at his Arlington, Texas home late Sunday night -- was skeptical to talk about the specifics of Austin’s injury because of privacy laws.

“But I can confirm that he suffered an injury, and that it affected his decision,” Drew said. “He’s been very mature with how he’s handled this.”

Drew said Austin's love for Baylor and his teammates made it easier to come back.

“He still could’ve left school and been drafted,” Drew said. “But he likes it here. He’s enjoyed his time here so far. If he didn’t like his teammates and if he didn’t like Baylor he wouldn’t have come back. I think that says a lot.”

Austin’s return is a huge boost for Baylor and will likely vault the Bears into the Big 12 title discussion along with Oklahoma State and Kansas. The Jayhawks have won nine straight conference crowns but lose all five starters from last season’s 31-6 team.

Baylor’s frontcourt of Austin, Cory Jefferson (who also considered entering the draft) and Ricardo Gathers will be among the best in the country. The trio combined to average 32 points and 22 rebounds for a team that went 23-14 last season and won the NIT championship.

Point guard Pierre Jackson -- last year’s Big 12 scoring and assists leader -- is gone and will be almost impossible to replace on the perimeter. But the Bears are hopeful that either rising sophomore L.J. Rose or junior college signee Kenny Cherry can step in and fill the void.

Brady Heslip and Gary Franklin are seniors who will both see extended minutes at shooting guard. And incoming freshman Ishmail Wainwright, who stands 6-foot-6, will give Baylor the long, athletic small forward it so glaringly lacked last season following the departure of Quincy Miller.

Baylor is also in the mix for a handful of potential transfers that could impact its team immediately.

No player on the roster, though, will boast as much talent as Austin, who averaged 13 points and a team-high 8.6 rebounds as a freshman. Once Austin regains his health -- it hasn’t been determined whether surgery will be needed to repair the torn labrum -- Baylor coaches want him to focus on gaining size and strength.

One of the biggest knocks on Austin is that’s he’s too skinny and not physical enough, which made him a huge liability on the defensive end of the floor at times last season, when he played at about 210 pounds. Drew said he’d like to see Austin at about 225 or 230.

“He needs to gain weight, gain strength,” Drew said. “Just like most every freshman, he hit a wall late in the season. Weight training allows you to go through that wall. That’s why strength and conditioning is so important.”

Austin also displayed bouts of immaturity at times, whether it was poor body language on the court or not doing the right things at practice.

“We talked about those things when I met with him tonight,” Drew said. “But he was already getting better in those areas. He matured during the season and it was really noticeable in the end. His focus is on getting better, just like it will be for all of us.”
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