ESPN Men's Basketball

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. -- A look at Thursday's early games at New Mexico's famed Pit:

No. 4 Wisconsin (24-9) vs. No. 13 Montana (25-6), 2:10 p.m. ET

This may be Wisconsin's worst team under Bo Ryan. Yet he's still in the NCAA tournament as a No. 4 seed with a solid chance to advance to the third round and possibly the Sweet 16. That's how good the system is for Ryan and the players he has found to flourish.

The Badgers lost an unprecedented three home games and still finished strong enough to win at Purdue and knock off Ohio State on the road to earn a No. 4 seed.

"We just have to stick with what we've been doing all year long,'' said Wisconsin guard Jordan Taylor. "I know based on the numbers or whatever, it is, I think you could say everybody plays at a quicker tempo based on the possessions or whatever you want. But it's not like we're trying to slow it down or anything or are looking to drag out the shot clock. We're just trying to get a good shot every time down. It's been working for the most part.''

Wisconsin may want to limit possessions. Montana will want to increase them. The Grizzlies will want to push the tempo and had no problems running Weber State and Damian Lillard out of the Big Sky tournament. Montana coach Wayne Tinkle said this team is better than the one two years ago that narrowly lost to New Mexico in the first round. Montana has won 14 straight, and the backcourt of Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar will push the Badgers as much as any in the Big Ten.

"They've got a lot of shooters,'' Taylor said. "They're pretty good defensively, especially Will Cherry.''

The bigs of Montana are much like Wisconsin's, with the ability to stretch the floor by making perimeter shots. But they have maybe even more of a rugged side to their on-court existence.

Cherry said he grasps that the Badgers put five players on the court who can all pass.

"If we can try to use our length on the defensive end and our speed and athleticism against them, I feel like we could speed them up,'' Cherry said.

The problem is the Badgers don't turn the ball over much and play with more control.

The last time Wisconsin played at the Pit, it went to the 2000 Final Four with an Elite Eight win over Purdue.

"I hope we can definitely carry some of that good karma,'' said Wisconsin's Jared Berggren. "Our coaches talked about it a little bit. We hope to make some more good memories here and advance to the next round.''

Three players to watch

Jordan Taylor, 6-1, Sr., Wisconsin: Taylor has the ability to take over a game and score in bunches. But he also can go through droughts. He's a steady lead guard who needs the ball in his hands to steer this offense.

Jared Berggren, 6-10, Jr., Wisconsin: Berggren can knock down the deep 3-pointer and really stretch the Grizzlies' defense. If he starts making face-up shots and pulls Derek Selvig away from the basket, then the Badgers are in good shape.

Will Cherry, 6-1, Jr., Montana: The Grizzlies guard can push the basketball with any guard in this field. He averages nearly three steals a game. If he flusters Taylor then the Grizzlies have a shot.

No. 5 Vanderbilt (24-10) vs. No. 12 Harvard (26-4), 4:40 p.m. ET

Since Fab Melo was ruled ineligible for Syracuse, it seems the trendy thing to do is pencil in Vanderbilt as the Elite Eight representative out of the top part of the East Region.

And why not? The Commodores just beat mighty Kentucky in the SEC tournament title game, right?

Whoa, whoa; let's slow down. This is Vanderbilt we're discussing here. This is the same program that has lost in the first round to double-digit seeds (Murray State, Siena and Richmond) in each of its last three tournament appearances.

This team may be suddenly surging after the performance in New Orleans, but the players haven't proved they can be trusted in the pressure-packed NCAA tournament -- no matter how much Melo's suspension might open things up.

"We deal in truth and reality, not perception and prediction,'' Vanderbilt coach Kevin Stallings said. "What happens in the rest of the bracket doesn't impact us at all. Nothing does except how we play.''

But if the Commodores play the way they played in New Orleans last week, 12th-seeded Harvard will have a short stay in its first NCAA tournament in 66 years.

At the SEC tourney, Vandy's defense kept Georgia and Ole Miss under 60 points and held Kentucky to a mere 64. The significance of that win cannot be overstated.

"I would say you go from a team that knows it's capable of playing with anybody in the country to one knowing that they're capable of beating everybody in the country,'' Stallings said. "You have to beat the teams to prove it to yourself. We played them tough twice. But until you beat them, you're not 100 percent sure that you can. There is an extra bounce in their step and a sense of accomplishment and a sense of confidence. There's also a sense of excitement too.''

Vanderbilt is probably the worst possible matchup for Harvard. The Crimson get a team that's as hot as any in the country and one that plays a similar style to Harvard but has better, more productive players. Harvard probably would have been better served with a less disciplined opponent that can't make 3s.

"They are very athletic, more athletic than people give them credit for being in the SEC with incredible athletic teams that have been known throughout the years in that league,'' said Harvard coach Tommy Amaker.

Stallings was quick to compliment the Crimson on their fundamentals, the ability to shoot, ball-handle, pass and score inside as well as get to the foul line. He also doesn't hesitate to reference his school as "the Harvard of the South."

"I've used it a few times and I hope that the Harvard people don't take that as a slap in the face,'' Stallings said. "We obviously feel like we'd be comparing ourselves to greatness. We obviously really admire Harvard as an institution.''

The NCAA tournament selection committee says it doesn't consider opponents. But it's odd to see how much the two schools share a similar athletic vision. They are two of the most academic-rich schools in the field. And two of the hungriest.

"We basically ask the question 'Why not?' We just felt like our name and our school are as powerful as any,'' Amaker said. "There are other great ones obviously but we felt we were as powerful as any name in higher education and why not? Why can't we present this as an option for the correct kids that would want to see this as something to do something different, to make history?"

The Crimson have made their own history with a first bid in the modern era of the sport. A win would be a historic first.

Three players to watch

John Jenkins, 6-4, Jr., Vanderbilt: Jenkins was the SEC tournament MVP. He's one of the top shooters in the field. If he's on from the perimeter, the Commodores will be a tough out, and not just here but in Boston.

Jeffery Taylor,6-7, Sr., Vanderbilt: Taylor can score more as a slasher but his defense sets him apart. Taylor could be the key player in shutting down Harvard's wings.

Kyle Casey, Jr., F, Harvard: Casey is the one player on the Crimson who could pose some matchup issues for the Commodores. He has a knack for coming up big in key games and was instrumental in the Crimson's run to the Ivy League title thanks to his efficient offensive production.

You’ve kept up with his projections for the past few months, but Joe Lunardi doesn’t go into hibernation once the real bracket comes out. Our resident Bracketologist is a hardcore basketball fan who knows his stuff. Here are his picks for the Big Dance:

SOUTH

Second round
1 Kentucky over 16 Western Kentucky
9 Connecticut over 8 Iowa State
5 Wichita State over 12 VCU
13 New Mexico State over 4 Indiana
6 UNLV over 11 Colorado
3 Baylor over 14 South Dakota State
7 Notre Dame over 10 Xavier
2 Duke over 15 Lehigh

Third round
1 Kentucky over 9 Connecticut
5 Wichita State over 13 New Mexico State
3 Baylor over 6 UNLV
2 Duke over 7 Notre Dame

Sweet 16
1 Kentucky over 5 Wichita State
3 Baylor over 2 Duke

Elite Eight
1 Kentucky over 3 Baylor

WEST

Second round
1 Michigan State over 16 LIU Brooklyn
9 Saint Louis over 8 Memphis
5 New Mexico over 12 Long Beach State
4 Louisville over 13 Davidson
6 Murray State over 11 Colorado State
3 Marquette over 14 BYU
7 Florida over 10 Virginia
2 Missouri over 15 Norfolk State

Third round
1 Michigan State over 9 Saint Louis
5 New Mexico over 4 Louisville
3 Marquette over 6 Murray State
2 Missouri over 7 Florida

Sweet 16
1 Michigan State over 5 New Mexico
2 Missouri over 3 Marquette

Elite Eight
2 Missouri over 1 Michigan State

EAST

Second round
1 Syracuse over 16 UNC Asheville
8 Kansas State over 9 Southern Miss
5 Vanderbilt over 12 Harvard
4 Wisconsin over 13 Montana
6 Cincinnati over 11 Texas
3 Florida State over 14 St. Bonaventure
10 West Virginia over 7 Gonzaga
2 Ohio State over 15 Loyola (Md.)

Third round
1 Syracuse over 8 Kansas State
4 Wisconsin over 5 Vanderbilt
3 Florida State over 6 Cincinnati
2 Ohio State over 10 West Virginia

Sweet 16
4 Wisconsin over 1 Syracuse
2 Ohio State over 3 Florida State

Elite Eight
4 Wisconsin over 2 Ohio State

MIDWEST

Second round
1 North Carolina over 16 Lamar
9 Alabama over 8 Creighton
5 Temple over 12 California
4 Michigan over 13 Ohio
11 NC State over 6 San Diego State
3 Georgetown over 14 Belmont
7 Saint Mary's over 10 Purdue
2 Kansas over 15 Detroit

Third round
1 North Carolina over 9 Alabama
4 Michigan over 5 Temple
11 NC State over 3 Georgetown
2 Kansas over 7 Saint Mary's

Sweet 16
1 North Carolina over 4 Michigan
2 Kansas over 11 NC State

Elite Eight
1 North Carolina over 2 Kansas

NATIONAL SEMIFINALS
Kentucky over Missouri
North Carolina over Wisconsin

NATIONAL TITLE GAME
Kentucky over North Carolina

Call in sick for work. Play hooky from school. Plop onto your favorite sofa or reserve a table at the local sports bar.

You’ve been waiting all year for the next two days.

It’s going to be worth it.

For sports fans, the first weekend of the NCAA tournament is as good as it gets. The Super Bowl may receive more hype, and watching your hometown team play in the World Series or NBA Finals is hard to beat.

But on a national level, no event is as highly anticipated by such a wide range of fans as the NCAA tournament. And no sport can match the excitement that will unfold time and time again during the “round of 64” games that take place Thursday and Friday.

Now that most of you have made your picks and turned in your brackets, here are some things to keep an eye on over the next two days.

Five best round of 64 games

No. 8 Iowa State vs. No. 9 Connecticut (South Region) -- After finishing ninth in the Big East last season, the Huskies won their final 11 games en route to a national championship. The chances of that happening again this year appear slim, especially with a potential round of 32 game looming against Kentucky. Still, Jim Calhoun’s squad is loaded with NBA talent (Andre Drummond and Jeremy Lamb) and experience. Its tilt with the Royce White-led Cyclones should be an entertaining one.

No. 8 Creighton vs. No. 9 Alabama (Midwest Region) -- Any little league basketball coach should have his team watch Creighton. Greg McDermott’s squad plays the game the right way. The Bluejays share the ball on offense, take high-percentage shots and genuinely relish each others’ success. They also feature one of the nation’s top players in Doug McDermott (Greg’s son). The 6-foot-7 sophomore will be challenged by an Alabama squad that’s known as one of the top defensive teams in the country.

No. 6 San Diego State vs. No. 11 North Carolina State (Midwest Region) -- Don’t let the Wolfpack’s low seed fool you. With players such as C.J. Leslie and Lorenzo Brown, Mark Gottfried touts the most talented team in the ACC behind North Carolina and Duke. NC State, which is making its first NCAA tournament appearance since 2006, has won four of its past five games. San Diego State, though, will be a tough out. The Aztecs had won six in a row before falling to New Mexico in the Mountain West Conference tournament title game.

No. 5 Wichita State vs. No. 12 VCU (South Region) -- VCU became the biggest story of last year’s NCAA tournament when it went all the way from the “First Four” in Dayton to the Final Four in Houston. This year Wichita State hopes to end the Rams’ run before it truly starts. The Shockers are generally regarded as the top mid-major team in America. Gregg Marshall’s squad is a solid seven deep, with underrated point guard Joe Ragland leading the way along with 7-foot center Garrett Stutz. Both players are seniors.

No. 5 New Mexico vs. No. 12 Long Beach State (West Region) -- Steve Alford’s New Mexico squad shared the Mountain West regular-season title with San Diego State before winning the league tournament. In Drew Gordon (13.4 points, 10.9 rebounds) the Lobos feature one of the field’s best-kept secrets. Led by Cousy Award finalist Casper Ware, Long Beach State is a senior-laden team that played nonconference games at Kansas, North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Louisville. The 49ers won’t be intimidated by the big stage.

Best round of 64 coaching matchups

Gonzaga’s Mark Few vs. West Virginia’s Bob Huggins (East Region) -- By their own standards, Few and Huggins have had somewhat “down” years. Gonzaga failed to win at least a piece of the West Coast Conference title for the first time in 11 years. West Virginia squeaked into the tournament despite losing eight of its final 12 games. Still, these are two of the top game tacticians in the country.

Florida’s Billy Donovan vs. Virginia’s Tony Bennett (West Region) -- The Gators have won two NCAA titles under Donovan, who likes to push the tempo. Meanwhile, no coach is as good at controlling the pace of a game as Bennett, whose team averages 63.1 points a game. Only one team in the last month (Maryland) has cracked the 70-point barrier against Virginia, and the Terps needed overtime to do it. The contrast in styles between these two coaches should make the game interesting.

Memphis’ Josh Pastner vs. Saint Louis’ Rick Majerus (West Region) -- Pastner is the 34-year-old wunderkind who is regarded as one of the profession’s rising stars. Majerus has 516 career wins and took Utah to the NCAA title game in 1998. Beating such a highly regarded coach in the NCAA tournament would do wonders for Pastner, whose reputation has already begun to soar. Memphis has won 11 of its past 12 contests and won the Conference USA title by a commanding two games.

Saint Mary’s’ Randy Bennett vs. Purdue’s Matt Painter (Midwest Region) -- Bennett has turned Saint Mary’s into a mid-major power by winning 25 or more games in each of the past five seasons. This season his Gaels became the first team in 11 years other than Gonzaga to win the outright West Coast Conference title. Painter’s Purdue squads are always among the top defensive teams in the country. The Boilermakers aren’t as good as they’ve been in years past, but Painter will have them prepared for Saint Mary’s.

Wichita State’s Gregg Marshall vs. VCU’s Shaka Smart (South Region) -- Both coaches are rumored to be in line for bigger jobs (and bigger paychecks) at the end of the season. Granted, they may not want to leave their current schools. Marshall has the Shockers back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2006. Smart took VCU to the Final Four last season and is hoping for another big run this month.

Best Round of 64 Individual Matchups

Florida State’s Bernard James vs. St. Bonaventure’s Andrew Nicholson (East Region) -- The 6-foot-10 James, who averages 2.3 blocks, will have his hands full trying to stop a forward who has averaged more than 16 points in each of the past three seasons. James is fortunate in that he has already faced some of the country’s top big men (Tyler Zeller, John Henson, Mason Plumlee, Mike Scott, etc.) in the ACC.

UNLV’s Mike Moser vs. Colorado’s Andre Roberson (South Region) -- Two of the nation’s top rebounders will go head-to-head when the Runnin’ Rebels meet the Buffaloes. Moser averages 10.6 rebounds per game, while Roberson snares 11.6 per contest.

Gonzaga’s Elias Harris vs. West Virginia’s Kevin Jones -- Jones would’ve likely been the Big East Player of the Year and a first-team All-American had the Mountaineers not floundered so badly down the stretch. With averages of 20.1 points and 11.1 rebounds, the 6-8 260-pounder is one of the most versatile players in the country. His size makes him a tough matchup, but Harris (6-7, 240) is big enough to handle the chore.

Alabama’s JaMychal Green vs. Creighton’s Doug McDermott (Midwest Region) -- Green had better get plenty of sleep before his team takes on Creighton. He’ll need all the energy he can muster to keep up with the 6-7 McDermott, who can score from anywhere on the court. McDermott ranks third in the country with a scoring average of 23.2 points per game.

Baylor’s backcourt vs. South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters (South Region) -- Wolters averages 21.3 points per game and, at 6-4, he’s a tough matchup for opposing guards. The Bears have plenty of backcourt depth, so expect Pierre Jackson, A.J. Walton, Brady Heslip, Deuce Bello and Gary Franklin to take their turns pestering Wolters, who scored 34 points against Washington earlier this season.

Five potential round of 64 upsets

No. 14 Belmont over No. 3 Georgetown (Midwest Region) -- The Hoyas lost their opening game in each of the past two seasons and haven’t made it to the second weekend since 2007. Belmont lost to Duke by one point in its season opener at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Bruins, who have won 14 straight, are a strong No. 14 seed.

No. 12 Long Beach State over No. 5 New Mexico (West Region) -- The 49ers won at Pittsburgh and lost by single digits at Kansas and North Carolina. They’ll have a chance in this one, but only if guard Larry Anderson (knee) is able to play. Long Beach State is led by former Gonzaga and Minnesota head coach Dan Monson.

No. 13 Montana over No. 4 Wisconsin (East Region) -- The Grizzlies have lost just one game since Dec. 10. Wisconsin, which finished fourth in the Big Ten, has had a solid season. The Badgers, however, play a slow style that makes them vulnerable to upsets. Eight of Wisconsin’s last nine wins have been by single digits.

No. 15 Detroit over No. 2 Kansas (Midwest Region) -- Kansas’ history of floundering against mid-major teams (Bucknell, Bradley, Northern Iowa, VCU) makes this game interesting. Detroit touts a McDonald’s All-America point guard in Ray McCallum Jr., and 6-foot-10 center Eli Holman began his career at Indiana before transferring to Detroit. He and 6-foot-11 teammate LaMarcus Lowe could create problems for Thomas Robinson.

No. 13 Davidson over No. 4 Louisville (West Region) -- This isn’t Stephen Curry’s Davidson team, but Bob McKillop’s squad is dangerous, nonetheless. Davidson defeated Kansas 80-74 in Kansas City back on Dec. 19. And the Wildcats went an impressive 16-2 in their conference. Louisville is one of the country’s best defensive teams, but overall, the Cardinals have a small margin for error.

As you all are filling out your brackets, you’re searching for possible upsets. Well, put down your pens and read about the following mid-major stars who could send shockwaves through the field of 68:

[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Ricardo ArduengoIona point guard Scott Machado will lead the Gaels against BYU in the tournament's first round.
1. Scott Machado (Iona): Now that Iona is in the field, the field has to worry about Iona. The Gaels have star power with Machado, Michael Glover and Lamont “Momo” Jones. Machado is one of the best point guards in America, as he’s leading the nation with 9.9 apg. And he’s the key to Iona’s top-ranked scoring offense (83.3 ppg). The Gaels open up the tournament with a matchup against BYU in Dayton. Machado will be the best player on the floor.
2. Will Cherry (Montana): He’s scored 20 or more in 10 games this season. He’s a versatile scorer (16.0 ppg) and he’s also a stubborn defender (2.6 spg, sixth in the nation). He’s the explosive, under-the-radar star that could break a multitude of brackets. Wisconsin is a strong defensive team, but Cherry could give the Badgers a lot of problems on both ends of the court.
3. Doug McDermott (Creighton): He’s a finalist for the Wooden Award. A true star. Yes, everyone knows what McDermott is capable of. But he will shift to another gear in the Big Dance. Proof? He’s averaged 25.3 points in his team’s last six games. I think the 8-seed is low for the Bluejays. But the Midwest region presents an opportunity for McDermott to meet former high school teammate Harrison Barnes in a third-round matchup against North Carolina. McDermott could be the star of that game.
4. Joe Ragland (Wichita State): The Shockers open up the tournament with a tough matchup against VCU. But with Ragland, a senior guard averaging 13.4 ppg, they can get through the first weekend. Ragland had 30 points during a BracketBusters matchup against Davidson. Most casual fans have never heard of the senior from West Springfield, Mass. Well, give it a few days, especially if the Shockers end up in the Sweet 16.
5. Nate Wolters (South Dakota State): I saw the Minnesota native in high school. Even as a prep, he had the same offensive savvy that’s translated to the collegiate level. The Jackrabbits star is averaging 21.3 ppg, ninth in the nation. He’s the reason some Baylor fans are worried about their team’s matchup against South Dakota State in the second round. He’s scored 30 or more in six games.
6. Casper Ware (Long Beach State): The 49ers won’t be complete without Larry Anderson (knee injury). But even if the defensive standout can’t go against New Mexico, Long Beach State will still be dangerous. Ware (17.4 ppg) is a 5-foot-10 assassin. He scored 33 points in the 49ers’ Big West tournament title game victory over UC-Santa Barbara. Not impressed? He scored 29 against North Carolina, 26 against San Diego State and 16 against Kansas. Don’t let the mid-major tag fool you. Ware has high-major game.
7. D.J. Cooper (Ohio): The junior guard is averaging 14.6 ppg for the Bobcats. He’s a threat, however, for a multitude of reasons. He’s an efficient distributor (5.7 apg). He’s a game-changing defender (2.4 spg). And he’s experienced. Two years ago, the Bobcats played in the NCAA tournament. Cooper was only a freshman then, but those early experiences helped him and the other youngsters on that team prepare for tough matchups away from home. I don’t think the Bobcats will beat the Wolverines. But John Beilein won’t take them or Cooper lightly in their second-round matchup.
8. Kerron Johnson (Belmont): One of the catalysts for a Belmont team that averages 81.5 ppg, Johnson could help the Bruins send Georgetown home early. In the Bruins’ first two games of the year -- road losses to Memphis and Duke -- Johnson recorded 28 points, 12 assists, nine rebounds and five steals combined. If he can keep his turnovers down (2.4), he might lead Belmont to an upset against the Hoyas.
9. Ray McCallum Jr. (Detroit): It has taken McCallum (15.6 ppg) two seasons to really showcase his potential. But he dominated the Horizon League tournament and looked like the coveted prospect who had a multitude of high major offers before he decided to play for his father at Detroit. Great players show up in March, and McCallum has really taken his game to the next level in recent weeks during his team’s five-game winning streak.
10. Wendell McKines (New Mexico State): He’s an interesting guy (just check his Twitter feed). But he’s also an underrated athlete. McKines (18.8 ppg, 10.8 rpg) scored 27 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in his team’s 82-57 victory over Louisiana Tech in the WAC title game. With McKines leading the way, the Aggies have won nine out of their last 10 games.

Well, it’s early, but that doesn’t mean we have to wait to make predictions. And in my opinion, you don’t waiver. You make statements and projections and you stand by them, regardless of what happens in the coming weeks. Hold me to the following bold predictions about the NCAA tournament:

1. No Big East team will reach the Final Four: Another big haul for the Big East. Nine of its teams will participate in this season’s edition of the NCAA tournament. But I don’t think the conference will send any teams to New Orleans. I think Syracuse, a team that’s vulnerable due to its challenges on the glass, has a tough path in the East with Ohio State and a pair of hot squads (Florida State and Vandy) standing in its way. Georgetown, Cincy and UConn could lose in the first round. Marquette has to get through Missouri. I just don’t see it. No Big East in the Big Easy.
2. [+] Enlarge
   Peter G. Aiken/US PresswireKim English and the Tigers could be one of two teams representing the Big 12 in New Orleans.
   The Big 12 will send two squads to New Orleans: Among the 2-seeds, Missouri has the easiest path to New Orleans. The Tigers’ speed and perimeter versatility will pose matchup problems for every team in the West Region, including No. 1 seed Michigan State. Kansas losing in the first round to Detroit? Nah. The Jayhawks will beat every team in the Midwest, including the Tar Heels if they face them in the Elite Eight.
3. Vanderbilt will reach the Final Four: I know it’s the sexy pick following its win over Kentucky in the SEC tournament title game. But the Commodores shouldn’t be judged by that victory. And they shouldn’t be dismissed because of premature exits in past years. They have veterans. And they’ve built momentum down the stretch, a la Connecticut a year ago. They’ve hit nearly 40 percent of their 3s this season. The East Region is stronger than it looks with teams such as Syracuse, Ohio State, Florida State and Wisconsin in the mix. But the Commodores can emerge with their senior leadership and shooting. Plus, they have the confidence that comes from beating Kentucky, a team that they challenged in two previous meetings, too.
4. Iona will win two games: I don’t agree with the Gaels’ inclusion. Washington and Drexel had stronger arguments. But just because many don’t believe they belong doesn’t mean that they won’t prove critics wrong. I think the Gaels, who own the No. 1 scoring offense in the country (83.3 ppg), are dangerous. To reach the third round in the West Region, the Gaels will have to get through BYU in Dayton and Marquette in Louisville. Mark it down. The Gaels are playing a pair of shaky defensive teams. They have three NBA-level talents in Scott Machado, Michael Glover and Lamont “Momo” Jones. As much I thought Iona didn’t have a case for a slot in the field of 68, I think the Gaels can show doubters that they’re worthy.
5. The Badgers will go home early: I’m picking Montana over Wisconsin in the 13/4 matchup in the East Region. Wisconsin’s offense has stalled multiple times in recent weeks. Even though the Badgers are capable of neutralizing any offense, they’ve had problems capitalizing due to their own inconsistent offense. Montana will be ready. The Grizzlies beat their Big Sky rivals Weber state by 19 points in the conference’s tournament title game, their 14^th consecutive victory. Plus, Will Cherry (16.0 ppg) can match Jordan Taylor. Grizzlies will advance.
6. Long Beach State is a Sweet 16 team: Numerous NCAA tournament teams have hungry veterans. But few upperclassmen have gone through the things that T.J. Robinson, Larry Anderson and Casper Ware have throughout their careers. The seniors missed the past two NCAA tournaments after losing in the conference tournament title game to UC Santa Barbara twice. But this season they earned the Big West’s automatic bid. If Anderson’s not ready (knee injury), then that will change Long Beach State’s March Madness potential. But even without Anderson, the league’s defensive player of the year, this is a talented team that’s played the top nonconference schedule in the country. The 49ers will not be intimidated. They’ll beat New Mexico and Louisville on their way to the Sweet 16.
7. [+] Enlarge
   AP Photo/Lenny IgnelziCreighton's Doug McDermott may meet up with former high school teammate Harrison Barnes of North Carolina.
   Michigan State will be the first No. 1 seed to fall: Call me crazy. But I think Memphis’ athleticism will create problems for the Spartans in the third round. I understand the “How will the Tigers guard Draymond Green?” question. But what about Will Barton and Joe Jackson? In the Big Ten, the Spartans didn’t play teams that possessed the raw athleticism that’s anchored Memphis’ roster. The Spartans will be tougher than the Tigers in this East Region matchup, but the latter has an element that Michigan State hasn’t faced since its season-opening to loss to North Carolina.
8. Doug McDermott will outplay Harrison Barnes on Sunday: I expect North Carolina and Creighton to advance and set up a Sunday matchup in the Midwest Region between former high school teammates Doug McDermott and Harrison Barnes, who earned two state titles together at Ames High School in Ames, Iowa. The Tar Heels will win the game, but McDermott will be the star. Both guys have talked about this potential matchup in the past. The McDermott vs. Barnes buildup will be immense. But McDermott will outperform his prep teammate in their first collegiate meeting, albeit in a loss.
9. The VCU/Wichita State winner is headed to the Sweet 16: It’s unfortunate that this game will eliminate a potent mid-major. Wichita State and VCU, a Final Four team last year, are two of the best in the country. I predict that the winner of this game will end up facing Kentucky in the Sweet 16. They’re both tough, physical defensive teams that will pressure Indiana in the round of 32. The Hoosiers have struggled outside of Bloomington. And whether they face the Shockers or the Rams, they’ll be in for a battle, one that I expect them to lose.
10. The West Coast Conference won’t win one game: BYU will lose to Iona. Saint Mary’s will go down against Purdue. West Virginia will beat Gonzaga. I thought the WCC would turn the corner this year with the way BYU, Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga fought for the WCC title. But all three have looked vulnerable in recent weeks. I just don’t think they’re going to advance. Plus, tough matchups for all three teams in their first games. Iona is very talented. The Boilermakers are tough, too. Kevin Jones will lead the Mountaineers to a win over the Bulldogs.

Check back Friday morning for Joe Lunardi's full bracket, but here are his basic projections through Thursday night's action.

SINCE THE LAST UPDATE

• Texas moves above “Last Four In” (No. 47 overall) with its victory over Iowa State.
• Mississippi State drops to “Last Four In” with its loss to Georgia.
• South Florida stays in the field (No. 46 overall) despite its loss to Notre Dame.
• Oregon moves from "First Four Out" to the last spot on "Next Four Out."

LAST FOUR IN

Washington
Mississippi State
Drexel
Seton Hall

FIRST FOUR OUT

Tennessee
Northwestern
NC State
Miami (Fla.)

NEXT FOUR OUT

Iona
Arizona
Saint Joseph's
Oregon

Also considered: Dayton, Marshall, Ole Miss

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (6)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Colonial (2)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
Detroit (Horizon)
Harvard (Ivy)
Lehigh (Patriot)
LIU Brooklyn (Northeast)
Loyola-Md. (MAAC)
Montana (Big Sky)
Murray State (OVC)
Saint Mary's (West Coast)
South Dakota State (Summit)
UNC Asheville (Big South)
VCU (Colonial)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

1. The Atlantic 10 needs to go on the offensive because it could potentially get poached by the MWC-CUSA merger. Charlotte is ripe for the picking since the 49ers are going to Division I football. The A-10 actually would be better if it was slimmed down by a few teams from 14. But losing Temple for 2013-14 isn’t the answer. The A-10 could definitely use a marquee program in the footprint (like VCU or Old Dominion).

2. Louisville coach Rick Pitino was right back in the fall and his influence with John Marinatto must have paid off. Adding Temple and Memphis for football is out of necessity. But the Big East had to add two established, tradition-rich basketball programs. Everyone in the Big East should fully expect Temple and Memphis to be fulltime players near the top of the conference for the foreseeable future.

3. Weber State’s Damian Lillard and Iona’s Scott Machado may end up being the top two playmaker guards in the NBA draft. Yet, neither one will be in the NCAA tournament after Lillard’s Wildcats were knocked out by host Montana in the Big Sky tournament title game. Machado lost to Fairfield in the MAAC tournament. The NCAAs will have plenty of stars, but not having Lillard and Machado on this stage is a shame for those that hadn’t seen either play this season.

Andy Katz with five things he took away from Wednesday's action, including momentum from Connecticut and UCLA, Seton Hall's lost opportunity, Montana's big night, and a mid-major star to know while filling out your brackets.

Kareem Jamar scored 23 points and Montana beat Weber State 85-66 on Wednesday night to win the Big Sky Conference tournament and the league's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

Editor’s note: This update does not include BYU-Gonzaga in the WCC tournament.

NOTABLE

• North Carolina moves up to top line as projected No. 1 seed.
• Belmont (Atlantic Sun) clinches fifth NCAA bid in seven years.
• Texas falls out of field, replaced by Xavier (“Last Team In”).

Last Four In
Xavier
Northwestern
South Florida
Colorado State

First Four Out
Texas
VCU
Oregon
NC State

Next Four Out
Miami
Tennessee
Saint Joseph’s
Dayton

BRACKET MATH

Take the “solid” at-large candidates (current Tournament Odds at 90% or better) and there are now 34 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers and that’s another 20 spots. All told there are 54 of the 68 spots accounted for, with 14 still up for grabs among current “Bubble” teams.

S-CURVE PROJECTIONS

1-KENTUCKY 2-SYRACUSE 3-KANSAS 4-NO. CAROLINA
8-Ohio State 7-Missouri 6-Duke 5-Michigan State*
9-Marquette 10-Georgetown 11-Baylor 12-Michigan
16-UNLV 15-Florida 14-Indiana 13-Wisconsin
17-Louisville 18-Wichita State 19-Florida State 20-TEMPLE
24-CREIGHTON 23-Notre Dame 22-Murray State 21-Vanderbilt
25-Gonzaga 26-New Mexico 27- San Diego State* 28-MEMPHIS
32-Purdue 31-Kansas State 30-Iowa State 29-SAINT MARY’S
33-Alabama 34-Cincinnati 35-Virginia 36-Southern Miss
40-Connecticut 39-Washington* 38-California 37-Saint Louis
41-West Virginia 42-Seton Hall 43-Harvard* 44-LONG BEACH STATE
48-Colorado State 47-Mississippi State 46-Brigham Young 45-Arizona
49-South Florida 50-Northwestern 51-Xavier 52-IONA
56-NEVADA 55-ORAL ROBERTS 54-DREXEL 53-MIDDLE TENNNESSEE
57-Belmont 58-DAVIDSON 59-AKRON 60-VALPARAISO
64-UNC Asheville 63-UT ARLINGTON 62-MONTANA 61-BUCKNELL
65-LONG ISLAND 66-STONY BROOK 67-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 68-SAVANNAH STATE
72-NC State 71-Oregon 70-VCU 69-Texas
73-Miami (Fla.) 74-Saint Joseph’s 75-Dayton 76-Tennessee

Bold - automatic qualifier; * - current conference leader.
ALL CAPS: Regular-season champion (NIT auto-bid if needed)

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (5)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
Pac-12 (3)
West Coast (3)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)

NCAA AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

UNC Asheville (Big South)
Murray State (Ohio Valley Conference)
Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

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There weren't many games Tuesday night, but there were plenty of consequential results. Here's a late-night update from the Bracketologist:

THE HEADLINES

• Michigan State drops off top line with loss at Indiana, replaced by Duke.
• UConn stays in field despite loss at Providence, but has fallen to No. 44 overall on the S-Curve ("Last Eight In").
• Xavier falls out of field after loss at Saint Louis, replaced by South Florida.
• Montana replaces Weber State as regular-season Big Sky champ.

TOP SEED PAIRINGS

SOUTH/Kentucky vs. WEST/Duke (1 vs. 4)
EAST/Syracuse vs. MIDWEST/Kansas (2 vs. 3)

BUBBLE BATTLES

Last Four In
Miami
Texas
Northwestern
South Florida

First Four Out
Xavier
Saint Joseph's
VCU
Colorado State

Next Four Out
Oregon
Colorado
Dayton
NC State

Also considered: Illinois, New Mexico State, Ohio, UCF

BRACKET MATH

Take the “solid” at-large candidates (current tournament odds at 85 percent or better), and there are now 34 teams in the field. Add the remaining automatic qualifiers, and that’s another 20 spots. That's 54 of the 68 spots accounted for, with 14 still up for grabs among current bubble teams.

BUBBLE (26 teams for 14 spots)

IN (14, in S-Curve order): 35-Southern Miss, 36-California, 37-Cincinnati, 38-Alabama, 41-Arizona, 43-Seton Hall, 44-Connecticut, 45-West Virginia, 46-Mississippi State, 47-Brigham Young, 48-Miami, 49-Texas, 50-Northwestern, 51-South Florida

OUT (12, in S-Curve order): 69-Xavier, 70-Saint Joseph’s, 71-VCU, 72-Colorado State, 73-Oregon, 74-Colorado, 75-Dayton, 76-NC State, 77-Illinois, 78-New Mexico State, 79-Ohio U., 80-Central Florida

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (6)
ACC (5)
SEC (5)
Mountain West (3)
Pac-12 (3)
West Coast (3)
Atlantic 10 (2)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)

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With a month left before the NCAA tournament begins, there is a legitimate race for the National Player of the Year.

Kansas junior Thomas Robinson, the leader in the first two ESPN.com National POY straw polls, is getting a major challenge from Kentucky freshman Anthony Davis.

And in the Year of the Versatile Forward, it makes sense. College basketball hasn’t seen a year of top big men like this since 2009, when the top three finishers for the Wooden Award and the top four for the Naismith Award were all forwards and centers.

In that year, Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin ran away with both awards, blowing by Pittsburgh’s DeJuan Blair, Connecticut’s Hasheem Thabeet and the 2008 Wooden Award winner, North Carolina’s Tyler Hansbrough. The top college guard that season, Davidson’s Stephen Curry, had a standout season but his team ended up in the NIT.

That season did have a lot of talented, well-known guards, led by Curry, UNC’s Ty Lawson, Kentucky’s Jodie Meeks, Memphis’ Tyreke Evans and Arizona State’s James Harden. All were in the final ballot of that season's straw poll.

As for this season, the top six vote-getters in this week’s poll were forwards, and 12 of 17 players mentioned by the 54 pollsters who responded were forwards or centers. Players like Michigan State’s Draymond Green and West Virginia’s Kevin Jones, now among the best players in the nation, were freshmen during that 2009 season and are now in this straw poll as seniors.

For those who missed the first two polls, here’s a recap of how it all works: Each pollster sends us their top three. A first-place vote is worth three points, a second-place vote worth two and a third-place vote worth one. Every voter is granted anonymity. Every voter has a voice in at least one of the four major college basketball player of the year awards: Wooden, Naismith, Associated Press or Robertson (the USBWA award).


Poll analysis:

-- For the third straight ballot, 17 players were represented. They come from 11 conferences (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Sky, Big Ten, MAAC, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Ohio Valley, SEC and West Coast). Just one school, Missouri, had multiple players on the ballot -- Denmon and Ratliffe.

-- Four players are making their first ballot of the season -- Johnson-Odom, Canaan, Anosike and Rob Jones. Five players dropped off from the second ballot: UNC’s Harrison Barnes, Vanderbilt’s John Jenkins, Maryland’s Terrell Stoglin, Kentucky’s Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Miami (Ohio)’s Julian Mavunga. In addition, the poll had its first returning player after being knocked off the ballot. Denmon was in the first poll, off the second and returns for the third.

-- The biggest mover was Davis, who jumped from fourth to second. Even more so, he went from being on 16 ballots to 47 ballots and from 30 points to 112 points. He also went from four first-place votes to 20. McDermott had the biggest drop, falling from second to fourth and from 70 points to 15.

-- In what is shaping up as a two-man race, only Robinson and Davis received first-place votes. On the second ballot, seven players received first-place votes: Robinson, McDermott, Sullinger, Davis, Kevin Jones and two players completely off this poll -- Barnes and Jenkins.

-- Player on the poll who should be getting more attention: Scott. This is the second poll I’ve mentioned this. His statistical numbers might not be as strong as others, but he consistently faces opponent double-teams and the exceedingly slow pace the Cavaliers play at limits Scott’s possessions to put up huge numbers.

-- Three players not in the poll who should get more attention: Iona guard Scott Machado, who continues to be one of the nation’s top passers, averaging 10 assists a game. Iowa State forward Royce White, while not putting up monster numbers, has been the key cog to the Cyclones' attempt to make a run at the NCAA tournament and is a matchup nightmare for any team facing him. Syracuse guard Dion Waiters, who while being the Orange’s sixth man, has been a major reason for their success averaging 12.2 points, 2.2 rebounds and 2.7 assists in just 23.7 minutes -- minutes much lower than any other contender. Three of the four players mentioned here two weeks ago ended up in this poll. The other was Seton Hall’s Herb Pope.

So what comes next? Here is a look at the next two weeks for the main contenders.

-- Sullinger has three marquee games that could give him one last push. He’ll be on ESPN at 9 p.m. ET Saturday against rival No. 19 Michigan, then faces elite big man Meyers Leonard and Illinois on Feb. 21 and No. 17 Wisconsin on Feb. 26.

-- Davis faces Ole Miss on Saturday, goes to Mississippi State on Feb. 21 and then faces Vanderbilt on Feb. 25.

-- Robinson has a major statement game on Feb. 25 against Missouri as well as three games against three teams at the bottom of the Big 12: Texas Tech (Saturday), Texas A&M (Feb. 22) and Oklahoma State (Feb. 27).