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1. Conference USA’s board will vote in a few weeks on whether to move the conference tournament from Memphis to Tulsa. The consensus among C-USA members is that it will be moved out of Memphis and that includes those at Memphis. The difference between this decision and what the Colonial Athletic Association faces with keeping its tournament in Richmond (if it does) is that C-USA would clearly be rewarding a departing member with an advantage. VCU is out of the CAA immediately and Richmond can still serve as a semi-neutral site for a number of schools.

2. If a player isn’t a lock for the first round, why would he have skipped the New Jersey Nets-organized draft combine this past weekend? It’s a good question that at least one NBA scouting director asked Monday. The hope is that anyone who skipped out on the combine will head to Minnesota next weekend before the Chicago draft camp the following week. Exposure is the most important aspect for players trying to crack the first round or the top of the second.

3. Boise State was represented at Monday’s Big East meetings in Florida. The Broncos clearly have to make a commitment to one conference or another here shortly and appear to have done so by showing up for the Big East meetings. Now the lobbying must begin in full force to get the men’s basketball program and every other sport in the Big West. As Big West commissioner Dennis Farrell said, the ball is in Boise’s court. If the Broncos want in, they have to apply.

1. San Diego State will not be changing its plan of going to the Big East in football and the Big West for all other sports, according to a direct source. The Aztecs aren’t tied to Boise State since there are other options for football (Air Force or BYU could always be back in the picture for football only), the source said. The school made the move to the Big West to save money since it is mostly a bus league based in southern California and the central coast, save the one trip to Hawaii. The conference's board of directors meets this week and the Aztecs have given the league no indication that it will not be entering the league in 2013.

2. Multiple sources said the Mountain West is actively trying to keep Boise State from leaving and then see if the same happens with San Diego State. But it’s going to be a gamble, either way. The move to the Big East for football was done for the television money -- projected to be more than what MWC will earn. Boise State didn’t move to the Big East in football for the automatic qualification in the BCS (which it can get before the new format starts in 2014). But a MWC source said it’s probably 50-50 on what Boise State decides.

3. The Big East still has to decide if 14 schools will participate in the Big East-SEC Challenge instead of 12. Based on conversations with multiple sources, the highest-profile game that could occur is Kentucky at Georgetown. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Louisville at Florida, Marquette at Missouri, and Tennessee at Notre Dame. But those last four appear to be more speculation at this point. The most likely matchup is UK-GU.

1. Louisville coach Rick Pitino said in a text Tuesday night that Indiana and Louisville couldn’t get a date set to schedule a game next season. Indiana coach Tom Crean wasn’t ready to close the door in his response, saying he wasn’t sure. But Pitino said he’s now trying to start the home-and-home series in 2013-14, which is a shame considering that the two teams could be ranked 1-2 to start next season. Indiana still has a few more games to schedule.

2. Missouri still might have landed Jordan Clarkson without restrictions put on his transfer from Tulsa. In a statement, the Golden Hurricane wouldn’t detail why there were restricted schools like Texas. Somehow, Tulsa escaped national criticism for the way it handled Clarkson. Mizzou coach Frank Haith has five transfers eligible next season, then Clarkson in 2013-14; the use of transfers is helping the Tigers avoid a rebuilding phase. The schools that get these transfers, though, shouldn’t ever block one of their own from seeking a new home.

3. Denver’s plan, according to a source, is to try to convince the remaining WAC members (Idaho, New Mexico State, Boise State and Seattle) that they should stay together to keep the league’s automatic NCAA tournament berth. The WAC could then add available Utah Valley and Cal State Bakersfield. The problem is that NMSU and Idaho will need a home for football and Boise State now would rather be in the Big West or, if the Big East were to fail, head back to the Mountain West. And, according to a source, if Denver had its choice, the Pioneers would go to the stable and all-private WCC.

1. Notre Dame coach Mike Brey said there was no decision yet on whether seniors Scott Martin and Tim Abromaitis will receive a sixth season of eligibility. Martin and Abromaitis each have had knee injuries. Martin played in three total seasons -- the first one at Purdue and the last two at Notre Dame with a redshirt season and an injury season in between. Abromaitis played in only two games this past season. This was his fifth season in college due to an injured second season with the Irish. Clearly, getting one or both back would be a major deal for the Irish in the Big East next season.

2. Saint Louis coach Rick Majerus spent the early part of the week working on his non-conference schedule. He said scheduling has become one of the toughest parts of the job, especially in dealing with the amount of money teams are getting for guaranteed games. But SLU is once again working on a stellar slate of games that should help the power rating. SLU does get New Mexico in a return game and may end up playing Murray State in St. Louis. SLU is one of the anchor teams in the CBE Classic in Kansas City with Kansas, Texas A&M and Washington State. A potential Kansas-SLU matchup in a final would be quite a show in KC.

3. The Sun Belt adds Georgia State. The WCC adds Pacific. But the biggest winners outside the power six in this conference alignment in 2012 will likely be the Big West adding San Diego State. The Atlantic 10 may also win if it can finalize a deal to get Butler. The team that may have the most trepidation now could be Boise State. The Broncos went to the WAC for the fall of 2013 but the WAC could look drastically different if the MWC-CUSA merger poaches a few members. Or, more likely, the Sun Belt under former WAC commissioner Karl Benson gets regional teams out of the WAC in Texas and Louisiana to bolt. Don’t put Boise in the WAC in cement just yet.

1. Ernie Zeigler told ESPN.com Sunday that his son Trey would sit out next season and then play two seasons at Pitt. But the Panthers will make an attempt to seek a waiver for Zeigler to play next season. Duke was going to seek the same thing had Zeigler chosen the Blue Devils. The premise is that Zeigler had to leave Central Michigan because his father was fired as head coach.

2. Kansas coach Bill Self said Ben McLemore is eligible and ready to go for next season. Self said in the preseason that McLemore might have been the team’s most-ready NBA level talent. That was before Thomas Robinson had a breakthrough season. But if McLemore has the impact projected then the Jayhawks should be in the thick of the title race again next season.

3. San Diego State will play UCLA in the Wooden Classic on Dec. 1 at the Honda Center. Give SDSU coach Steve Fisher credit for constantly trying to upgrade the Aztecs schedule. But these types of games will become even more important once San Diego State moves to the Big West in 2013. The Aztecs will need to secure neutral-site games against top competition due to the lower conference power rating of the Big West compared to the Mountain West. Conversely, this will be a dangerous game for UCLA. SDSU should be the favored team to win in this game.

You’ve kept up with his projections for the past few months, but Joe Lunardi doesn’t go into hibernation once the real bracket comes out. Our resident Bracketologist is a hardcore basketball fan who knows his stuff. Here are his picks for the Big Dance:

SOUTH

Second round
1 Kentucky over 16 Western Kentucky
9 Connecticut over 8 Iowa State
5 Wichita State over 12 VCU
13 New Mexico State over 4 Indiana
6 UNLV over 11 Colorado
3 Baylor over 14 South Dakota State
7 Notre Dame over 10 Xavier
2 Duke over 15 Lehigh

Third round
1 Kentucky over 9 Connecticut
5 Wichita State over 13 New Mexico State
3 Baylor over 6 UNLV
2 Duke over 7 Notre Dame

Sweet 16
1 Kentucky over 5 Wichita State
3 Baylor over 2 Duke

Elite Eight
1 Kentucky over 3 Baylor

WEST

Second round
1 Michigan State over 16 LIU Brooklyn
9 Saint Louis over 8 Memphis
5 New Mexico over 12 Long Beach State
4 Louisville over 13 Davidson
6 Murray State over 11 Colorado State
3 Marquette over 14 BYU
7 Florida over 10 Virginia
2 Missouri over 15 Norfolk State

Third round
1 Michigan State over 9 Saint Louis
5 New Mexico over 4 Louisville
3 Marquette over 6 Murray State
2 Missouri over 7 Florida

Sweet 16
1 Michigan State over 5 New Mexico
2 Missouri over 3 Marquette

Elite Eight
2 Missouri over 1 Michigan State

EAST

Second round
1 Syracuse over 16 UNC Asheville
8 Kansas State over 9 Southern Miss
5 Vanderbilt over 12 Harvard
4 Wisconsin over 13 Montana
6 Cincinnati over 11 Texas
3 Florida State over 14 St. Bonaventure
10 West Virginia over 7 Gonzaga
2 Ohio State over 15 Loyola (Md.)

Third round
1 Syracuse over 8 Kansas State
4 Wisconsin over 5 Vanderbilt
3 Florida State over 6 Cincinnati
2 Ohio State over 10 West Virginia

Sweet 16
4 Wisconsin over 1 Syracuse
2 Ohio State over 3 Florida State

Elite Eight
4 Wisconsin over 2 Ohio State

MIDWEST

Second round
1 North Carolina over 16 Lamar
9 Alabama over 8 Creighton
5 Temple over 12 California
4 Michigan over 13 Ohio
11 NC State over 6 San Diego State
3 Georgetown over 14 Belmont
7 Saint Mary's over 10 Purdue
2 Kansas over 15 Detroit

Third round
1 North Carolina over 9 Alabama
4 Michigan over 5 Temple
11 NC State over 3 Georgetown
2 Kansas over 7 Saint Mary's

Sweet 16
1 North Carolina over 4 Michigan
2 Kansas over 11 NC State

Elite Eight
1 North Carolina over 2 Kansas

NATIONAL SEMIFINALS
Kentucky over Missouri
North Carolina over Wisconsin

NATIONAL TITLE GAME
Kentucky over North Carolina

Call in sick for work. Play hooky from school. Plop onto your favorite sofa or reserve a table at the local sports bar.

You’ve been waiting all year for the next two days.

It’s going to be worth it.

For sports fans, the first weekend of the NCAA tournament is as good as it gets. The Super Bowl may receive more hype, and watching your hometown team play in the World Series or NBA Finals is hard to beat.

But on a national level, no event is as highly anticipated by such a wide range of fans as the NCAA tournament. And no sport can match the excitement that will unfold time and time again during the “round of 64” games that take place Thursday and Friday.

Now that most of you have made your picks and turned in your brackets, here are some things to keep an eye on over the next two days.

Five best round of 64 games

No. 8 Iowa State vs. No. 9 Connecticut (South Region) -- After finishing ninth in the Big East last season, the Huskies won their final 11 games en route to a national championship. The chances of that happening again this year appear slim, especially with a potential round of 32 game looming against Kentucky. Still, Jim Calhoun’s squad is loaded with NBA talent (Andre Drummond and Jeremy Lamb) and experience. Its tilt with the Royce White-led Cyclones should be an entertaining one.

No. 8 Creighton vs. No. 9 Alabama (Midwest Region) -- Any little league basketball coach should have his team watch Creighton. Greg McDermott’s squad plays the game the right way. The Bluejays share the ball on offense, take high-percentage shots and genuinely relish each others’ success. They also feature one of the nation’s top players in Doug McDermott (Greg’s son). The 6-foot-7 sophomore will be challenged by an Alabama squad that’s known as one of the top defensive teams in the country.

No. 6 San Diego State vs. No. 11 North Carolina State (Midwest Region) -- Don’t let the Wolfpack’s low seed fool you. With players such as C.J. Leslie and Lorenzo Brown, Mark Gottfried touts the most talented team in the ACC behind North Carolina and Duke. NC State, which is making its first NCAA tournament appearance since 2006, has won four of its past five games. San Diego State, though, will be a tough out. The Aztecs had won six in a row before falling to New Mexico in the Mountain West Conference tournament title game.

No. 5 Wichita State vs. No. 12 VCU (South Region) -- VCU became the biggest story of last year’s NCAA tournament when it went all the way from the “First Four” in Dayton to the Final Four in Houston. This year Wichita State hopes to end the Rams’ run before it truly starts. The Shockers are generally regarded as the top mid-major team in America. Gregg Marshall’s squad is a solid seven deep, with underrated point guard Joe Ragland leading the way along with 7-foot center Garrett Stutz. Both players are seniors.

No. 5 New Mexico vs. No. 12 Long Beach State (West Region) -- Steve Alford’s New Mexico squad shared the Mountain West regular-season title with San Diego State before winning the league tournament. In Drew Gordon (13.4 points, 10.9 rebounds) the Lobos feature one of the field’s best-kept secrets. Led by Cousy Award finalist Casper Ware, Long Beach State is a senior-laden team that played nonconference games at Kansas, North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Louisville. The 49ers won’t be intimidated by the big stage.

Best round of 64 coaching matchups

Gonzaga’s Mark Few vs. West Virginia’s Bob Huggins (East Region) -- By their own standards, Few and Huggins have had somewhat “down” years. Gonzaga failed to win at least a piece of the West Coast Conference title for the first time in 11 years. West Virginia squeaked into the tournament despite losing eight of its final 12 games. Still, these are two of the top game tacticians in the country.

Florida’s Billy Donovan vs. Virginia’s Tony Bennett (West Region) -- The Gators have won two NCAA titles under Donovan, who likes to push the tempo. Meanwhile, no coach is as good at controlling the pace of a game as Bennett, whose team averages 63.1 points a game. Only one team in the last month (Maryland) has cracked the 70-point barrier against Virginia, and the Terps needed overtime to do it. The contrast in styles between these two coaches should make the game interesting.

Memphis’ Josh Pastner vs. Saint Louis’ Rick Majerus (West Region) -- Pastner is the 34-year-old wunderkind who is regarded as one of the profession’s rising stars. Majerus has 516 career wins and took Utah to the NCAA title game in 1998. Beating such a highly regarded coach in the NCAA tournament would do wonders for Pastner, whose reputation has already begun to soar. Memphis has won 11 of its past 12 contests and won the Conference USA title by a commanding two games.

Saint Mary’s’ Randy Bennett vs. Purdue’s Matt Painter (Midwest Region) -- Bennett has turned Saint Mary’s into a mid-major power by winning 25 or more games in each of the past five seasons. This season his Gaels became the first team in 11 years other than Gonzaga to win the outright West Coast Conference title. Painter’s Purdue squads are always among the top defensive teams in the country. The Boilermakers aren’t as good as they’ve been in years past, but Painter will have them prepared for Saint Mary’s.

Wichita State’s Gregg Marshall vs. VCU’s Shaka Smart (South Region) -- Both coaches are rumored to be in line for bigger jobs (and bigger paychecks) at the end of the season. Granted, they may not want to leave their current schools. Marshall has the Shockers back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2006. Smart took VCU to the Final Four last season and is hoping for another big run this month.

Best Round of 64 Individual Matchups

Florida State’s Bernard James vs. St. Bonaventure’s Andrew Nicholson (East Region) -- The 6-foot-10 James, who averages 2.3 blocks, will have his hands full trying to stop a forward who has averaged more than 16 points in each of the past three seasons. James is fortunate in that he has already faced some of the country’s top big men (Tyler Zeller, John Henson, Mason Plumlee, Mike Scott, etc.) in the ACC.

UNLV’s Mike Moser vs. Colorado’s Andre Roberson (South Region) -- Two of the nation’s top rebounders will go head-to-head when the Runnin’ Rebels meet the Buffaloes. Moser averages 10.6 rebounds per game, while Roberson snares 11.6 per contest.

Gonzaga’s Elias Harris vs. West Virginia’s Kevin Jones -- Jones would’ve likely been the Big East Player of the Year and a first-team All-American had the Mountaineers not floundered so badly down the stretch. With averages of 20.1 points and 11.1 rebounds, the 6-8 260-pounder is one of the most versatile players in the country. His size makes him a tough matchup, but Harris (6-7, 240) is big enough to handle the chore.

Alabama’s JaMychal Green vs. Creighton’s Doug McDermott (Midwest Region) -- Green had better get plenty of sleep before his team takes on Creighton. He’ll need all the energy he can muster to keep up with the 6-7 McDermott, who can score from anywhere on the court. McDermott ranks third in the country with a scoring average of 23.2 points per game.

Baylor’s backcourt vs. South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters (South Region) -- Wolters averages 21.3 points per game and, at 6-4, he’s a tough matchup for opposing guards. The Bears have plenty of backcourt depth, so expect Pierre Jackson, A.J. Walton, Brady Heslip, Deuce Bello and Gary Franklin to take their turns pestering Wolters, who scored 34 points against Washington earlier this season.

Five potential round of 64 upsets

No. 14 Belmont over No. 3 Georgetown (Midwest Region) -- The Hoyas lost their opening game in each of the past two seasons and haven’t made it to the second weekend since 2007. Belmont lost to Duke by one point in its season opener at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Bruins, who have won 14 straight, are a strong No. 14 seed.

No. 12 Long Beach State over No. 5 New Mexico (West Region) -- The 49ers won at Pittsburgh and lost by single digits at Kansas and North Carolina. They’ll have a chance in this one, but only if guard Larry Anderson (knee) is able to play. Long Beach State is led by former Gonzaga and Minnesota head coach Dan Monson.

No. 13 Montana over No. 4 Wisconsin (East Region) -- The Grizzlies have lost just one game since Dec. 10. Wisconsin, which finished fourth in the Big Ten, has had a solid season. The Badgers, however, play a slow style that makes them vulnerable to upsets. Eight of Wisconsin’s last nine wins have been by single digits.

No. 15 Detroit over No. 2 Kansas (Midwest Region) -- Kansas’ history of floundering against mid-major teams (Bucknell, Bradley, Northern Iowa, VCU) makes this game interesting. Detroit touts a McDonald’s All-America point guard in Ray McCallum Jr., and 6-foot-10 center Eli Holman began his career at Indiana before transferring to Detroit. He and 6-foot-11 teammate LaMarcus Lowe could create problems for Thomas Robinson.

No. 13 Davidson over No. 4 Louisville (West Region) -- This isn’t Stephen Curry’s Davidson team, but Bob McKillop’s squad is dangerous, nonetheless. Davidson defeated Kansas 80-74 in Kansas City back on Dec. 19. And the Wildcats went an impressive 16-2 in their conference. Louisville is one of the country’s best defensive teams, but overall, the Cardinals have a small margin for error.

As you all are filling out your brackets, you’re searching for possible upsets. Well, put down your pens and read about the following mid-major stars who could send shockwaves through the field of 68:

[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Ricardo ArduengoIona point guard Scott Machado will lead the Gaels against BYU in the tournament's first round.
1. Scott Machado (Iona): Now that Iona is in the field, the field has to worry about Iona. The Gaels have star power with Machado, Michael Glover and Lamont “Momo” Jones. Machado is one of the best point guards in America, as he’s leading the nation with 9.9 apg. And he’s the key to Iona’s top-ranked scoring offense (83.3 ppg). The Gaels open up the tournament with a matchup against BYU in Dayton. Machado will be the best player on the floor.
2. Will Cherry (Montana): He’s scored 20 or more in 10 games this season. He’s a versatile scorer (16.0 ppg) and he’s also a stubborn defender (2.6 spg, sixth in the nation). He’s the explosive, under-the-radar star that could break a multitude of brackets. Wisconsin is a strong defensive team, but Cherry could give the Badgers a lot of problems on both ends of the court.
3. Doug McDermott (Creighton): He’s a finalist for the Wooden Award. A true star. Yes, everyone knows what McDermott is capable of. But he will shift to another gear in the Big Dance. Proof? He’s averaged 25.3 points in his team’s last six games. I think the 8-seed is low for the Bluejays. But the Midwest region presents an opportunity for McDermott to meet former high school teammate Harrison Barnes in a third-round matchup against North Carolina. McDermott could be the star of that game.
4. Joe Ragland (Wichita State): The Shockers open up the tournament with a tough matchup against VCU. But with Ragland, a senior guard averaging 13.4 ppg, they can get through the first weekend. Ragland had 30 points during a BracketBusters matchup against Davidson. Most casual fans have never heard of the senior from West Springfield, Mass. Well, give it a few days, especially if the Shockers end up in the Sweet 16.
5. Nate Wolters (South Dakota State): I saw the Minnesota native in high school. Even as a prep, he had the same offensive savvy that’s translated to the collegiate level. The Jackrabbits star is averaging 21.3 ppg, ninth in the nation. He’s the reason some Baylor fans are worried about their team’s matchup against South Dakota State in the second round. He’s scored 30 or more in six games.
6. Casper Ware (Long Beach State): The 49ers won’t be complete without Larry Anderson (knee injury). But even if the defensive standout can’t go against New Mexico, Long Beach State will still be dangerous. Ware (17.4 ppg) is a 5-foot-10 assassin. He scored 33 points in the 49ers’ Big West tournament title game victory over UC-Santa Barbara. Not impressed? He scored 29 against North Carolina, 26 against San Diego State and 16 against Kansas. Don’t let the mid-major tag fool you. Ware has high-major game.
7. D.J. Cooper (Ohio): The junior guard is averaging 14.6 ppg for the Bobcats. He’s a threat, however, for a multitude of reasons. He’s an efficient distributor (5.7 apg). He’s a game-changing defender (2.4 spg). And he’s experienced. Two years ago, the Bobcats played in the NCAA tournament. Cooper was only a freshman then, but those early experiences helped him and the other youngsters on that team prepare for tough matchups away from home. I don’t think the Bobcats will beat the Wolverines. But John Beilein won’t take them or Cooper lightly in their second-round matchup.
8. Kerron Johnson (Belmont): One of the catalysts for a Belmont team that averages 81.5 ppg, Johnson could help the Bruins send Georgetown home early. In the Bruins’ first two games of the year -- road losses to Memphis and Duke -- Johnson recorded 28 points, 12 assists, nine rebounds and five steals combined. If he can keep his turnovers down (2.4), he might lead Belmont to an upset against the Hoyas.
9. Ray McCallum Jr. (Detroit): It has taken McCallum (15.6 ppg) two seasons to really showcase his potential. But he dominated the Horizon League tournament and looked like the coveted prospect who had a multitude of high major offers before he decided to play for his father at Detroit. Great players show up in March, and McCallum has really taken his game to the next level in recent weeks during his team’s five-game winning streak.
10. Wendell McKines (New Mexico State): He’s an interesting guy (just check his Twitter feed). But he’s also an underrated athlete. McKines (18.8 ppg, 10.8 rpg) scored 27 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in his team’s 82-57 victory over Louisiana Tech in the WAC title game. With McKines leading the way, the Aggies have won nine out of their last 10 games.

Well, it’s early, but that doesn’t mean we have to wait to make predictions. And in my opinion, you don’t waiver. You make statements and projections and you stand by them, regardless of what happens in the coming weeks. Hold me to the following bold predictions about the NCAA tournament:

1. No Big East team will reach the Final Four: Another big haul for the Big East. Nine of its teams will participate in this season’s edition of the NCAA tournament. But I don’t think the conference will send any teams to New Orleans. I think Syracuse, a team that’s vulnerable due to its challenges on the glass, has a tough path in the East with Ohio State and a pair of hot squads (Florida State and Vandy) standing in its way. Georgetown, Cincy and UConn could lose in the first round. Marquette has to get through Missouri. I just don’t see it. No Big East in the Big Easy.
2. [+] Enlarge
   Peter G. Aiken/US PresswireKim English and the Tigers could be one of two teams representing the Big 12 in New Orleans.
   The Big 12 will send two squads to New Orleans: Among the 2-seeds, Missouri has the easiest path to New Orleans. The Tigers’ speed and perimeter versatility will pose matchup problems for every team in the West Region, including No. 1 seed Michigan State. Kansas losing in the first round to Detroit? Nah. The Jayhawks will beat every team in the Midwest, including the Tar Heels if they face them in the Elite Eight.
3. Vanderbilt will reach the Final Four: I know it’s the sexy pick following its win over Kentucky in the SEC tournament title game. But the Commodores shouldn’t be judged by that victory. And they shouldn’t be dismissed because of premature exits in past years. They have veterans. And they’ve built momentum down the stretch, a la Connecticut a year ago. They’ve hit nearly 40 percent of their 3s this season. The East Region is stronger than it looks with teams such as Syracuse, Ohio State, Florida State and Wisconsin in the mix. But the Commodores can emerge with their senior leadership and shooting. Plus, they have the confidence that comes from beating Kentucky, a team that they challenged in two previous meetings, too.
4. Iona will win two games: I don’t agree with the Gaels’ inclusion. Washington and Drexel had stronger arguments. But just because many don’t believe they belong doesn’t mean that they won’t prove critics wrong. I think the Gaels, who own the No. 1 scoring offense in the country (83.3 ppg), are dangerous. To reach the third round in the West Region, the Gaels will have to get through BYU in Dayton and Marquette in Louisville. Mark it down. The Gaels are playing a pair of shaky defensive teams. They have three NBA-level talents in Scott Machado, Michael Glover and Lamont “Momo” Jones. As much I thought Iona didn’t have a case for a slot in the field of 68, I think the Gaels can show doubters that they’re worthy.
5. The Badgers will go home early: I’m picking Montana over Wisconsin in the 13/4 matchup in the East Region. Wisconsin’s offense has stalled multiple times in recent weeks. Even though the Badgers are capable of neutralizing any offense, they’ve had problems capitalizing due to their own inconsistent offense. Montana will be ready. The Grizzlies beat their Big Sky rivals Weber state by 19 points in the conference’s tournament title game, their 14^th consecutive victory. Plus, Will Cherry (16.0 ppg) can match Jordan Taylor. Grizzlies will advance.
6. Long Beach State is a Sweet 16 team: Numerous NCAA tournament teams have hungry veterans. But few upperclassmen have gone through the things that T.J. Robinson, Larry Anderson and Casper Ware have throughout their careers. The seniors missed the past two NCAA tournaments after losing in the conference tournament title game to UC Santa Barbara twice. But this season they earned the Big West’s automatic bid. If Anderson’s not ready (knee injury), then that will change Long Beach State’s March Madness potential. But even without Anderson, the league’s defensive player of the year, this is a talented team that’s played the top nonconference schedule in the country. The 49ers will not be intimidated. They’ll beat New Mexico and Louisville on their way to the Sweet 16.
7. [+] Enlarge
   AP Photo/Lenny IgnelziCreighton's Doug McDermott may meet up with former high school teammate Harrison Barnes of North Carolina.
   Michigan State will be the first No. 1 seed to fall: Call me crazy. But I think Memphis’ athleticism will create problems for the Spartans in the third round. I understand the “How will the Tigers guard Draymond Green?” question. But what about Will Barton and Joe Jackson? In the Big Ten, the Spartans didn’t play teams that possessed the raw athleticism that’s anchored Memphis’ roster. The Spartans will be tougher than the Tigers in this East Region matchup, but the latter has an element that Michigan State hasn’t faced since its season-opening to loss to North Carolina.
8. Doug McDermott will outplay Harrison Barnes on Sunday: I expect North Carolina and Creighton to advance and set up a Sunday matchup in the Midwest Region between former high school teammates Doug McDermott and Harrison Barnes, who earned two state titles together at Ames High School in Ames, Iowa. The Tar Heels will win the game, but McDermott will be the star. Both guys have talked about this potential matchup in the past. The McDermott vs. Barnes buildup will be immense. But McDermott will outperform his prep teammate in their first collegiate meeting, albeit in a loss.
9. The VCU/Wichita State winner is headed to the Sweet 16: It’s unfortunate that this game will eliminate a potent mid-major. Wichita State and VCU, a Final Four team last year, are two of the best in the country. I predict that the winner of this game will end up facing Kentucky in the Sweet 16. They’re both tough, physical defensive teams that will pressure Indiana in the round of 32. The Hoosiers have struggled outside of Bloomington. And whether they face the Shockers or the Rams, they’ll be in for a battle, one that I expect them to lose.
10. The West Coast Conference won’t win one game: BYU will lose to Iona. Saint Mary’s will go down against Purdue. West Virginia will beat Gonzaga. I thought the WCC would turn the corner this year with the way BYU, Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga fought for the WCC title. But all three have looked vulnerable in recent weeks. I just don’t think they’re going to advance. Plus, tough matchups for all three teams in their first games. Iona is very talented. The Boilermakers are tough, too. Kevin Jones will lead the Mountaineers to a win over the Bulldogs.

The 49ers defeated UC-Santa Barbara 77-64 to capture the Big West tournament title and clinch a berth in the NCAA tournament.

Check back Friday morning for Joe Lunardi's full bracket, but here are his basic projections through Thursday night's action.

SINCE THE LAST UPDATE

• Texas moves above “Last Four In” (No. 47 overall) with its victory over Iowa State.
• Mississippi State drops to “Last Four In” with its loss to Georgia.
• South Florida stays in the field (No. 46 overall) despite its loss to Notre Dame.
• Oregon moves from "First Four Out" to the last spot on "Next Four Out."

LAST FOUR IN

Washington
Mississippi State
Drexel
Seton Hall

FIRST FOUR OUT

Tennessee
Northwestern
NC State
Miami (Fla.)

NEXT FOUR OUT

Iona
Arizona
Saint Joseph's
Oregon

Also considered: Dayton, Marshall, Ole Miss

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (6)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Colonial (2)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
Detroit (Horizon)
Harvard (Ivy)
Lehigh (Patriot)
LIU Brooklyn (Northeast)
Loyola-Md. (MAAC)
Montana (Big Sky)
Murray State (OVC)
Saint Mary's (West Coast)
South Dakota State (Summit)
UNC Asheville (Big South)
VCU (Colonial)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

Editor’s note: This update does not include BYU-Gonzaga in the WCC tournament.

NOTABLE

• North Carolina moves up to top line as projected No. 1 seed.
• Belmont (Atlantic Sun) clinches fifth NCAA bid in seven years.
• Texas falls out of field, replaced by Xavier (“Last Team In”).

Last Four In
Xavier
Northwestern
South Florida
Colorado State

First Four Out
Texas
VCU
Oregon
NC State

Next Four Out
Miami
Tennessee
Saint Joseph’s
Dayton

BRACKET MATH

Take the “solid” at-large candidates (current Tournament Odds at 90% or better) and there are now 34 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers and that’s another 20 spots. All told there are 54 of the 68 spots accounted for, with 14 still up for grabs among current “Bubble” teams.

S-CURVE PROJECTIONS

1-KENTUCKY 2-SYRACUSE 3-KANSAS 4-NO. CAROLINA
8-Ohio State 7-Missouri 6-Duke 5-Michigan State*
9-Marquette 10-Georgetown 11-Baylor 12-Michigan
16-UNLV 15-Florida 14-Indiana 13-Wisconsin
17-Louisville 18-Wichita State 19-Florida State 20-TEMPLE
24-CREIGHTON 23-Notre Dame 22-Murray State 21-Vanderbilt
25-Gonzaga 26-New Mexico 27- San Diego State* 28-MEMPHIS
32-Purdue 31-Kansas State 30-Iowa State 29-SAINT MARY’S
33-Alabama 34-Cincinnati 35-Virginia 36-Southern Miss
40-Connecticut 39-Washington* 38-California 37-Saint Louis
41-West Virginia 42-Seton Hall 43-Harvard* 44-LONG BEACH STATE
48-Colorado State 47-Mississippi State 46-Brigham Young 45-Arizona
49-South Florida 50-Northwestern 51-Xavier 52-IONA
56-NEVADA 55-ORAL ROBERTS 54-DREXEL 53-MIDDLE TENNNESSEE
57-Belmont 58-DAVIDSON 59-AKRON 60-VALPARAISO
64-UNC Asheville 63-UT ARLINGTON 62-MONTANA 61-BUCKNELL
65-LONG ISLAND 66-STONY BROOK 67-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 68-SAVANNAH STATE
72-NC State 71-Oregon 70-VCU 69-Texas
73-Miami (Fla.) 74-Saint Joseph’s 75-Dayton 76-Tennessee

Bold - automatic qualifier; * - current conference leader.
ALL CAPS: Regular-season champion (NIT auto-bid if needed)

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (5)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
Pac-12 (3)
West Coast (3)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)

NCAA AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

UNC Asheville (Big South)
Murray State (Ohio Valley Conference)
Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

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We know you can't wait until Monday morning, so here's an abbreviated version of Joe Lunardi's latest bracket projection:

THE HEADLINES

• No. 1 seeds after today (Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, Michigan State).
• Last team in the field is Saint Joseph's, which beat Temple tonight.
• UConn is still in despite a loss to Syracuse that drops the Huskies to 7-9 in the Big East.
• Xavier, Texas and Northwestern hang on to "Last Four In" positions with narrow victories.
• Huge Sunday games for Miami (vs. Florida State) and South Florida (vs. Cincinnati).

TOP SEED PAIRINGS

SOUTH/Kentucky vs. WEST/Michigan State (1 vs. 4)
EAST/Syracuse vs. MIDWEST/Kansas (2 vs. 3)

BUBBLE BATTLES

Last Four In
Xavier
Texas
Northwestern
Saint Joseph’s

First Four Out
Colorado State
Miami (Fla.)
VCU
South Florida

Next Four Out
Dayton
UCF
Oregon
NC State

BRACKET MATH

Take the "solid" at-large candidates (current tournament odds at 85 percent or better) and there are exactly 34 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers and that's another 19 spots. All told, 53 of the 68 spots are accounted for, with 15 still up for grabs among current "bubble" teams.

S-CURVE PROJECTION

1-KENTUCKY 2-SYRACUSE 3-Kansas* 4-Michigan State*
8-Ohio State 7-Missouri 6-North Carolina 5-Duke
9-Marquette 10-Baylor 11-Georgetown 12-Michigan
16-Indiana 15-Wisconsin 14-Florida State 13-Louisville
17-Florida 18-Notre Dame 19-WICHITA STATE 20-UNLV
24-Creighton 23-MURRAY STATE 22-Vanderbilt 21-Temple*
25-New Mexico 26-Gonzaga 27-San Diego State 28-Purdue
32-California* 31-Memphis* 30-Virginia 29-SAINT MARY'S
33-Iowa State 34-Kansas State 35-Southern Miss 36-Saint Louis
40-Washington 39-Connecticut 38-Alabama 37-Cincinnati
41-LONG BEACH STATE 42-Arizona 43-Harvard* 44-Seton Hall
48-Xavier 47-Brigham Young 46-West Virginia 45-Mississippi State
49-Texas 50-Northwestern 51-Saint Joseph's 52-ORAL ROBERTS
56-Akron* 55-MIDDLE TENNESSEE 54-DREXEL 53-IONA
57-Nevada* 58-BELMONT 59-DAVIDSON 60-VALPARAISO
64-LONG ISLAND 63-UT ARLINGTON 62-Weber State* 61-BUCKNELL
65-UNC ASHEVILLE 66-Stony Brook* 67-MISS. VALLEY STATE 68-Savannah State*
72-South Florida 71-VCU 70-Miami (Fla.) 69-Colorado State
73-Dayton 74-UCF 75-Oregon 76-NC State
*Current conference leader.
ALL CAPS: Regular-season champion (NIT auto-bid if needed)

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (9)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Atlantic 10 (4)
Mountain West (3)
Pac-12 (3)
West Coast (3)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)

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Contribute your thoughts and questions beginning at 1 p.m. ET. See you there.