ESPN Men's Basketball

1. The NIT contract with Madison Square Garden is up this year. The NIT Season Tip-Off could live with being in Indianapolis (where the NCAA is headquartered) if it couldn’t be at MSG. But the postseason NIT really should be at the Final Four site if it can’t be in New York. The perfect scenario to save the event, if an MSG deal falls through, would be to play the games at the Final Four in an adjacent college building (next year at Georgia Tech) on the Wednesday and Thursday nights at the Final Four. You can clear out the fans when most arrive by Friday morning.

2. Murray State coach Steve Prohm said he is desperately seeking a tournament for next season and is attempting to get into the Charleston Classic. He said he’s willing to open up against a high-major on the road or in the first week, but needs a home-and-home series with the home game being next year. This is the price a school like Murray pays for having an outstanding season and returning an all-American candidate in Isaiah Canaan.

3. Xavier coach Chris Mack won’t say anything more about Mark Lyons. But the Musketeers did need to move on from this crew. They excelled to get to the Sweet 16 in Atlanta. But the time was now to sever the relationships from last season’s team. Xavier is too proud, too strong a program to be tainted by that one incident; having a fresh start with the main combatants gone allows for a new era.

1. Our Top 25 poll will generate plenty of buzz, but it left out a few teams that deserve mention. Don’t sleep on Murray State, which returns Isaiah Canaan and coach Steve Prohm. I’ll be stunned if Murray doesn’t make its way back into the Top 25. I also really like Minnesota again. The Gophers should be a real tough out with a healthy Trevor Mbakwe, Rodney Williams and a returning perimeter. And Cincinnati should be in the mix in the Big East with a core returning that played exceptionally well down the stretch.

2. SMU athletic director Steve Orsini can now lock in on finding a replacement for Matt Doherty after having to deal with his basketball selection committee responsibilities. Orsini knows that he has to find the right coach, not necessarily the big name. He wants to make sure the Mustangs are competitive in the Big East in 2014. I’m not sure if he has a shot, but Texas ties are important and that’s why Marquette assistant, and former Texas Tech guard, Tony Benford is an intriguing name who can recruit talent from the area.

3. Jim Christian’s move from TCU to Ohio is a classic case of a coach getting ahead before he’s out. Christian had the Horned Frogs extremely competitive in the MWC this season. TCU is now off to the Big 12. Christian returned to the MAC and took the Ohio job, a team that will be the early-season conference favorite despite the coaching change. But now the Horned Frogs have to do what Orsini is doing in the Metroplex, make the right hire for a new conference and necessarily chase the big name. Texas ties will be even more critical with the Big 12 beckoning next fall.

You’ve kept up with his projections for the past few months, but Joe Lunardi doesn’t go into hibernation once the real bracket comes out. Our resident Bracketologist is a hardcore basketball fan who knows his stuff. Here are his picks for the Big Dance:

SOUTH

Second round
1 Kentucky over 16 Western Kentucky
9 Connecticut over 8 Iowa State
5 Wichita State over 12 VCU
13 New Mexico State over 4 Indiana
6 UNLV over 11 Colorado
3 Baylor over 14 South Dakota State
7 Notre Dame over 10 Xavier
2 Duke over 15 Lehigh

Third round
1 Kentucky over 9 Connecticut
5 Wichita State over 13 New Mexico State
3 Baylor over 6 UNLV
2 Duke over 7 Notre Dame

Sweet 16
1 Kentucky over 5 Wichita State
3 Baylor over 2 Duke

Elite Eight
1 Kentucky over 3 Baylor

WEST

Second round
1 Michigan State over 16 LIU Brooklyn
9 Saint Louis over 8 Memphis
5 New Mexico over 12 Long Beach State
4 Louisville over 13 Davidson
6 Murray State over 11 Colorado State
3 Marquette over 14 BYU
7 Florida over 10 Virginia
2 Missouri over 15 Norfolk State

Third round
1 Michigan State over 9 Saint Louis
5 New Mexico over 4 Louisville
3 Marquette over 6 Murray State
2 Missouri over 7 Florida

Sweet 16
1 Michigan State over 5 New Mexico
2 Missouri over 3 Marquette

Elite Eight
2 Missouri over 1 Michigan State

EAST

Second round
1 Syracuse over 16 UNC Asheville
8 Kansas State over 9 Southern Miss
5 Vanderbilt over 12 Harvard
4 Wisconsin over 13 Montana
6 Cincinnati over 11 Texas
3 Florida State over 14 St. Bonaventure
10 West Virginia over 7 Gonzaga
2 Ohio State over 15 Loyola (Md.)

Third round
1 Syracuse over 8 Kansas State
4 Wisconsin over 5 Vanderbilt
3 Florida State over 6 Cincinnati
2 Ohio State over 10 West Virginia

Sweet 16
4 Wisconsin over 1 Syracuse
2 Ohio State over 3 Florida State

Elite Eight
4 Wisconsin over 2 Ohio State

MIDWEST

Second round
1 North Carolina over 16 Lamar
9 Alabama over 8 Creighton
5 Temple over 12 California
4 Michigan over 13 Ohio
11 NC State over 6 San Diego State
3 Georgetown over 14 Belmont
7 Saint Mary's over 10 Purdue
2 Kansas over 15 Detroit

Third round
1 North Carolina over 9 Alabama
4 Michigan over 5 Temple
11 NC State over 3 Georgetown
2 Kansas over 7 Saint Mary's

Sweet 16
1 North Carolina over 4 Michigan
2 Kansas over 11 NC State

Elite Eight
1 North Carolina over 2 Kansas

NATIONAL SEMIFINALS
Kentucky over Missouri
North Carolina over Wisconsin

NATIONAL TITLE GAME
Kentucky over North Carolina

Call in sick for work. Play hooky from school. Plop onto your favorite sofa or reserve a table at the local sports bar.

You’ve been waiting all year for the next two days.

It’s going to be worth it.

For sports fans, the first weekend of the NCAA tournament is as good as it gets. The Super Bowl may receive more hype, and watching your hometown team play in the World Series or NBA Finals is hard to beat.

But on a national level, no event is as highly anticipated by such a wide range of fans as the NCAA tournament. And no sport can match the excitement that will unfold time and time again during the “round of 64” games that take place Thursday and Friday.

Now that most of you have made your picks and turned in your brackets, here are some things to keep an eye on over the next two days.

Five best round of 64 games

No. 8 Iowa State vs. No. 9 Connecticut (South Region) -- After finishing ninth in the Big East last season, the Huskies won their final 11 games en route to a national championship. The chances of that happening again this year appear slim, especially with a potential round of 32 game looming against Kentucky. Still, Jim Calhoun’s squad is loaded with NBA talent (Andre Drummond and Jeremy Lamb) and experience. Its tilt with the Royce White-led Cyclones should be an entertaining one.

No. 8 Creighton vs. No. 9 Alabama (Midwest Region) -- Any little league basketball coach should have his team watch Creighton. Greg McDermott’s squad plays the game the right way. The Bluejays share the ball on offense, take high-percentage shots and genuinely relish each others’ success. They also feature one of the nation’s top players in Doug McDermott (Greg’s son). The 6-foot-7 sophomore will be challenged by an Alabama squad that’s known as one of the top defensive teams in the country.

No. 6 San Diego State vs. No. 11 North Carolina State (Midwest Region) -- Don’t let the Wolfpack’s low seed fool you. With players such as C.J. Leslie and Lorenzo Brown, Mark Gottfried touts the most talented team in the ACC behind North Carolina and Duke. NC State, which is making its first NCAA tournament appearance since 2006, has won four of its past five games. San Diego State, though, will be a tough out. The Aztecs had won six in a row before falling to New Mexico in the Mountain West Conference tournament title game.

No. 5 Wichita State vs. No. 12 VCU (South Region) -- VCU became the biggest story of last year’s NCAA tournament when it went all the way from the “First Four” in Dayton to the Final Four in Houston. This year Wichita State hopes to end the Rams’ run before it truly starts. The Shockers are generally regarded as the top mid-major team in America. Gregg Marshall’s squad is a solid seven deep, with underrated point guard Joe Ragland leading the way along with 7-foot center Garrett Stutz. Both players are seniors.

No. 5 New Mexico vs. No. 12 Long Beach State (West Region) -- Steve Alford’s New Mexico squad shared the Mountain West regular-season title with San Diego State before winning the league tournament. In Drew Gordon (13.4 points, 10.9 rebounds) the Lobos feature one of the field’s best-kept secrets. Led by Cousy Award finalist Casper Ware, Long Beach State is a senior-laden team that played nonconference games at Kansas, North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Louisville. The 49ers won’t be intimidated by the big stage.

Best round of 64 coaching matchups

Gonzaga’s Mark Few vs. West Virginia’s Bob Huggins (East Region) -- By their own standards, Few and Huggins have had somewhat “down” years. Gonzaga failed to win at least a piece of the West Coast Conference title for the first time in 11 years. West Virginia squeaked into the tournament despite losing eight of its final 12 games. Still, these are two of the top game tacticians in the country.

Florida’s Billy Donovan vs. Virginia’s Tony Bennett (West Region) -- The Gators have won two NCAA titles under Donovan, who likes to push the tempo. Meanwhile, no coach is as good at controlling the pace of a game as Bennett, whose team averages 63.1 points a game. Only one team in the last month (Maryland) has cracked the 70-point barrier against Virginia, and the Terps needed overtime to do it. The contrast in styles between these two coaches should make the game interesting.

Memphis’ Josh Pastner vs. Saint Louis’ Rick Majerus (West Region) -- Pastner is the 34-year-old wunderkind who is regarded as one of the profession’s rising stars. Majerus has 516 career wins and took Utah to the NCAA title game in 1998. Beating such a highly regarded coach in the NCAA tournament would do wonders for Pastner, whose reputation has already begun to soar. Memphis has won 11 of its past 12 contests and won the Conference USA title by a commanding two games.

Saint Mary’s’ Randy Bennett vs. Purdue’s Matt Painter (Midwest Region) -- Bennett has turned Saint Mary’s into a mid-major power by winning 25 or more games in each of the past five seasons. This season his Gaels became the first team in 11 years other than Gonzaga to win the outright West Coast Conference title. Painter’s Purdue squads are always among the top defensive teams in the country. The Boilermakers aren’t as good as they’ve been in years past, but Painter will have them prepared for Saint Mary’s.

Wichita State’s Gregg Marshall vs. VCU’s Shaka Smart (South Region) -- Both coaches are rumored to be in line for bigger jobs (and bigger paychecks) at the end of the season. Granted, they may not want to leave their current schools. Marshall has the Shockers back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2006. Smart took VCU to the Final Four last season and is hoping for another big run this month.

Best Round of 64 Individual Matchups

Florida State’s Bernard James vs. St. Bonaventure’s Andrew Nicholson (East Region) -- The 6-foot-10 James, who averages 2.3 blocks, will have his hands full trying to stop a forward who has averaged more than 16 points in each of the past three seasons. James is fortunate in that he has already faced some of the country’s top big men (Tyler Zeller, John Henson, Mason Plumlee, Mike Scott, etc.) in the ACC.

UNLV’s Mike Moser vs. Colorado’s Andre Roberson (South Region) -- Two of the nation’s top rebounders will go head-to-head when the Runnin’ Rebels meet the Buffaloes. Moser averages 10.6 rebounds per game, while Roberson snares 11.6 per contest.

Gonzaga’s Elias Harris vs. West Virginia’s Kevin Jones -- Jones would’ve likely been the Big East Player of the Year and a first-team All-American had the Mountaineers not floundered so badly down the stretch. With averages of 20.1 points and 11.1 rebounds, the 6-8 260-pounder is one of the most versatile players in the country. His size makes him a tough matchup, but Harris (6-7, 240) is big enough to handle the chore.

Alabama’s JaMychal Green vs. Creighton’s Doug McDermott (Midwest Region) -- Green had better get plenty of sleep before his team takes on Creighton. He’ll need all the energy he can muster to keep up with the 6-7 McDermott, who can score from anywhere on the court. McDermott ranks third in the country with a scoring average of 23.2 points per game.

Baylor’s backcourt vs. South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters (South Region) -- Wolters averages 21.3 points per game and, at 6-4, he’s a tough matchup for opposing guards. The Bears have plenty of backcourt depth, so expect Pierre Jackson, A.J. Walton, Brady Heslip, Deuce Bello and Gary Franklin to take their turns pestering Wolters, who scored 34 points against Washington earlier this season.

Five potential round of 64 upsets

No. 14 Belmont over No. 3 Georgetown (Midwest Region) -- The Hoyas lost their opening game in each of the past two seasons and haven’t made it to the second weekend since 2007. Belmont lost to Duke by one point in its season opener at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Bruins, who have won 14 straight, are a strong No. 14 seed.

No. 12 Long Beach State over No. 5 New Mexico (West Region) -- The 49ers won at Pittsburgh and lost by single digits at Kansas and North Carolina. They’ll have a chance in this one, but only if guard Larry Anderson (knee) is able to play. Long Beach State is led by former Gonzaga and Minnesota head coach Dan Monson.

No. 13 Montana over No. 4 Wisconsin (East Region) -- The Grizzlies have lost just one game since Dec. 10. Wisconsin, which finished fourth in the Big Ten, has had a solid season. The Badgers, however, play a slow style that makes them vulnerable to upsets. Eight of Wisconsin’s last nine wins have been by single digits.

No. 15 Detroit over No. 2 Kansas (Midwest Region) -- Kansas’ history of floundering against mid-major teams (Bucknell, Bradley, Northern Iowa, VCU) makes this game interesting. Detroit touts a McDonald’s All-America point guard in Ray McCallum Jr., and 6-foot-10 center Eli Holman began his career at Indiana before transferring to Detroit. He and 6-foot-11 teammate LaMarcus Lowe could create problems for Thomas Robinson.

No. 13 Davidson over No. 4 Louisville (West Region) -- This isn’t Stephen Curry’s Davidson team, but Bob McKillop’s squad is dangerous, nonetheless. Davidson defeated Kansas 80-74 in Kansas City back on Dec. 19. And the Wildcats went an impressive 16-2 in their conference. Louisville is one of the country’s best defensive teams, but overall, the Cardinals have a small margin for error.

Check back Friday morning for Joe Lunardi's full bracket, but here are his basic projections through Thursday night's action.

SINCE THE LAST UPDATE

• Texas moves above “Last Four In” (No. 47 overall) with its victory over Iowa State.
• Mississippi State drops to “Last Four In” with its loss to Georgia.
• South Florida stays in the field (No. 46 overall) despite its loss to Notre Dame.
• Oregon moves from "First Four Out" to the last spot on "Next Four Out."

LAST FOUR IN

Washington
Mississippi State
Drexel
Seton Hall

FIRST FOUR OUT

Tennessee
Northwestern
NC State
Miami (Fla.)

NEXT FOUR OUT

Iona
Arizona
Saint Joseph's
Oregon

Also considered: Dayton, Marshall, Ole Miss

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (6)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Colonial (2)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
Detroit (Horizon)
Harvard (Ivy)
Lehigh (Patriot)
LIU Brooklyn (Northeast)
Loyola-Md. (MAAC)
Montana (Big Sky)
Murray State (OVC)
Saint Mary's (West Coast)
South Dakota State (Summit)
UNC Asheville (Big South)
VCU (Colonial)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

Thomas Robinson or Anthony Davis.

Anthony Davis or Thomas Robinson

There isn’t a wrong answer, so whoever wins this year’s Wooden Award will be more than deserving.

As an official voter, I’ve thought long and hard about that ballot I’ll be casting in a few weeks. After three months of indecisiveness -- you’ve seen how I’ve waffled from week to week -- I’ve decided on Robinson.

Here’s why: Robinson’s phenomenal season has been achieved under an immense amount of pressure. He enters each game knowing that, if he doesn’t perform well, his team will likely lose. Other than ESPN.com third-team All-American Tyshawn Taylor, Robinson isn’t surrounded by a wealth of standout players. The Jayhawks went 16-2 in the Big 12 with a walk-on (Conner Teahan) as their sixth man and a transfer from Loyola Marymount (Kevin Young) as their seventh man. This is as thin of a team as Bill Self has ever had in Lawrence.

Because of that, teams almost always elected to double-team -- and sometimes triple-team -- Robinson. The 6-foot-9 junior almost always maintained his composure and responded with a double-double. He had 22 of them in Kansas’ 31 games. Along with averaging 18 points, Robinson ranked second in the nation in rebounds with 11.9 per contest. His numbers were achieved against significantly better competition than Davis faced at Kentucky. Kansas played a much tougher nonconference schedule, and let’s be honest, the Big 12 is better than the SEC.

Take Davis off Kentucky’s roster and the Wildcats would’ve still been one of the top five teams in the country. I realize that’s not Davis’ fault and that he shouldn’t be penalized for being surrounded by supreme talent. But it is what it is. Without Robinson, the Jayhawks would’ve struggled to make the NIT. That’s not an exaggeration. The pressure on Robinson to carry one of the nation’s elite programs in what was supposed to be a “down” year was immense. But the junior responded.

Every time.

Here’s how my final Wooden Award ballot will look.

1. Thomas Robinson, Kansas -- In what was likely his final game at Allen Fieldhouse, the junior had 25 points and 14 rebounds in a win against Texas. He ended the regular season averaging 18 points and 11.9 rebounds, a mark that ranks second in the nation. Robinson is projected to be a top-10 pick in this summer’s NBA draft.
2. Anthony Davis, Kentucky -- Two of Kentucky’s last three games were against Florida and Vanderbilt, which are generally regarded as the top two teams in the SEC other than Kentucky. Davis averaged 25.5 points, 11.5 rebounds and 5.5 blocks in those two games. He ended the regular season averaging team highs in points (14.4), rebounds (9.8) and blocks (4.7).
3. Tyler Zeller, North Carolina -- No other player in the ACC had as good of a season as Zeller, who had 19 points and 10 rebounds to lead the Tar Heels to an ACC title-clinching win Saturday at Duke. The 7-foot senior averaged 23 points over his final three regular-season games. He’s averaging 16.3 points and 9.3 rebounds for the season.
4. Draymond Green, Michigan State -- The most versatile player in college basketball averages 16.2 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.5 steals for a team that shared the Big Ten title with Michigan and Ohio State. The 6-foot-7, 230-pound Green earned conference MVP honors ahead of future NBA lottery pick Jared Sullinger.
5. Doug McDermott, Creighton -- The sophomore had 33 points on 12-of-18 shooting in Sunday’s overtime win against Illinois State in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament title game. He ranks third in the nation with 23.2 points per game and also averages 8.2 rebounds. Most impressively, McDermott is shooting 61 percent from the field and 49.5 percent from 3-point range.

Here are the other 10 official Wooden Award finalists, as announced Tuesday morning on ESPN.com:

Isaiah Canaan, Murray State -- The point guard is averaging 19.2 points for the Racers, who will take a 30-1 record into the NCAA tournament.

Jae Crowder, Marquette -- Voted Most Valuable Player in the Big East, Crowder is averaging 24.7 points in his last six games.

Marcus Denmon, Missouri -- With an 18-point scoring average, the senior guard is the key reason the Tigers are a top-5 team and a Final Four contender.

Kevin Jones, West Virginia -- The senior forward, who averages 20 points and 11.2 rebounds, would’ve easily been a first-team All-American had his team not struggled so mightily down the stretch.

Kris Joseph, Syracuse -- The versatile forward leads the nation’s second-best team in scoring with 14.1 points per game.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist -- Kentucky’s do-everything freshman averaged 11.9 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks. He’s vowed to return for his sophomore season. We’ll see.

Damian Lillard, Weber State -- The point guard ranks second in the nation in scoring with 24.5 points per game and also averages 3.9 assists.

Scott Machado, Iona -- Ranks second in the nation in assists with 9.9 per contest. Also averages 13.6 points.

Austin Rivers, Duke -- The freshman leads the Blue Devils with 15.3 points per game. Came on strong during the second half of the season.

Jared Sullinger, Ohio State -- Almost impossible to stop in the paint, the sophomore led Ohio State in points (16.9) and rebounds (9.3).

Five others who were strongly considered: Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas), Darius Johnson-Odom (Marquette), Harrison Barnes (North Carolina), Will Barton (Memphis), Cody Zeller (Indiana)

Editor’s note: This update does not include BYU-Gonzaga in the WCC tournament.

NOTABLE

• North Carolina moves up to top line as projected No. 1 seed.
• Belmont (Atlantic Sun) clinches fifth NCAA bid in seven years.
• Texas falls out of field, replaced by Xavier (“Last Team In”).

Last Four In
Xavier
Northwestern
South Florida
Colorado State

First Four Out
Texas
VCU
Oregon
NC State

Next Four Out
Miami
Tennessee
Saint Joseph’s
Dayton

BRACKET MATH

Take the “solid” at-large candidates (current Tournament Odds at 90% or better) and there are now 34 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers and that’s another 20 spots. All told there are 54 of the 68 spots accounted for, with 14 still up for grabs among current “Bubble” teams.

S-CURVE PROJECTIONS

1-KENTUCKY 2-SYRACUSE 3-KANSAS 4-NO. CAROLINA
8-Ohio State 7-Missouri 6-Duke 5-Michigan State*
9-Marquette 10-Georgetown 11-Baylor 12-Michigan
16-UNLV 15-Florida 14-Indiana 13-Wisconsin
17-Louisville 18-Wichita State 19-Florida State 20-TEMPLE
24-CREIGHTON 23-Notre Dame 22-Murray State 21-Vanderbilt
25-Gonzaga 26-New Mexico 27- San Diego State* 28-MEMPHIS
32-Purdue 31-Kansas State 30-Iowa State 29-SAINT MARY’S
33-Alabama 34-Cincinnati 35-Virginia 36-Southern Miss
40-Connecticut 39-Washington* 38-California 37-Saint Louis
41-West Virginia 42-Seton Hall 43-Harvard* 44-LONG BEACH STATE
48-Colorado State 47-Mississippi State 46-Brigham Young 45-Arizona
49-South Florida 50-Northwestern 51-Xavier 52-IONA
56-NEVADA 55-ORAL ROBERTS 54-DREXEL 53-MIDDLE TENNNESSEE
57-Belmont 58-DAVIDSON 59-AKRON 60-VALPARAISO
64-UNC Asheville 63-UT ARLINGTON 62-MONTANA 61-BUCKNELL
65-LONG ISLAND 66-STONY BROOK 67-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 68-SAVANNAH STATE
72-NC State 71-Oregon 70-VCU 69-Texas
73-Miami (Fla.) 74-Saint Joseph’s 75-Dayton 76-Tennessee

Bold - automatic qualifier; * - current conference leader.
ALL CAPS: Regular-season champion (NIT auto-bid if needed)

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (5)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
Pac-12 (3)
West Coast (3)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)

NCAA AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

UNC Asheville (Big South)
Murray State (Ohio Valley Conference)
Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

Believe it or not, a certain massive matchup in Durham, N.C., isn't the only college hoops game on the schedule today. Hard to believe, I know, but it's true.

Here's a look at much of the action -- bubble and otherwise -- that served as the appetizer to tonight's main course. Be sure to check back later this evening for our writers' reactions and analysis from across the country.

No. 7 Marquette 83, No. 12 Georgetown 69: When March calms down, and the offseason finishes out its usual assortment of draft decisions, coaching intrigue and off-campus arrests (and everything else), I'm going to sit down one week and calculate college hoops winning percentages on senior night. With the exception of Northwestern (which lost in heartbreaking fashion Wednesday), it felt like nearly every team in the country won its final home game of the season this week. A lot of that is just good, old-fashioned home-court advantage, and some of it is skill and so forth, but when you strip all that away, I'm still going to guess pretty much every college hoops team in the country sees a massive bounce in its winning in the final home game of the season. Quantifying emotion is never easy. This feels like a chance.

In any case, Marquette followed this (presumably real, potentially imagined) trend Saturday, easily handling a Georgetown team that was itself coming off a dominant performance in its final home game of the season, a 59-41 victory over Notre Dame. In doing so, the Golden Eagles extended their Big East record to 14-4 and ensured the No. 2 seed in the Big East tournament next week. Meanwhile, Jae Crowder made one last-ditch pitch for Big East player of the year: He scored 26 points and grabbed 14 rebounds on 8-of-15 from the field and 10-of-12 from the free throw line. (Crowder missed all five 3-point attempts, a portion of his game that he's really improved this season. When your center can shoot 37 percent from 3-point range, you've got a very difficult team to guard.)

Can Crowder win the award? Because he should. With all due respect to Darius Johnson-Odom and like four or five different Syracuse players, Crowder's mix of offensive efficiency (offensive rating: 122.9; including 61 percent from inside the arc, a low turnover rate, and the aforementioned perimeter solidity), rebounding and defense (he's averaging 2.3 steals and 1.0 blocks per game) make him, to me, the most complete, most important player in the conference.

No. 9 Murray State 54, Tennessee State 52 (Ohio Valley Championship): With six minutes left in the OVC title game, bubble teams across the country were no doubt finding it difficult to establish regulated breathing patterns. Tennessee State was up 48-43, the Racers were struggling to find stops against the dish-and-kick action of the Tigers' 1-4 low sets, and even worse, Isaiah Canaan, Murray State's do-it-all star, was battling through an off night. A two-bid OVC -- and a suddenly shrunken bubble -- were very real possibilities.

But Murray State locked in on defense, stacking great possession after great possession, cutting the Tigers off and preventing easy shots in the paint, and eventually came back to seal the win. The final go-ahead basket was a matter of immediate controversy at the broadcast table; our own Fran Fraschilla was convinced Murray State guard Jewuan Long charged on his game-winning basket. The call was close, no question. But all due respect to Fran, who is way better than this than I am, I disagree that it should have been a charge. A few things here. Long shot the ball before contact was initiated; the defender was still slightly sliding under the move, rather than entirely in front of it; and, most importantly, it was the penultimate play of a one-possession game with the NCAA tournament on the line. The ref needs to swallow his whistle there. And, in general, college coaches and players -- frankly, this applies to the NBA, too -- need to stop coaching defense like this! It's bad for the sport. There are plenty of ways to defend a driving player without fouling or attempt to draw a foul. Choose one. Don't run to a spot and hope the ref gives you the benefit of a 50-50 call, especially when your season is on the line. In short: Play defense.

Maybe that's the pickup player in me coming out; I would have little sympathy even if Long committed a blatant charge. But it wasn't. The no-call couldn't have been more appropriate. And every bubble team in the country can breathe just a little bit easier as a result.

Illinois State 65, No. 14 Wichita State 64: On second thought, bubble teams, you can go back to freaking out now. Why? Because Arch Madness has yielded its first truly mad result of the tournament. Wichita State is the Missouri Valley's best team and No. 1 overall seed, not to mention everyone's pick to be this year's mid-major tournament darling. But that didn't stop the Redbirds -- thanks to Tyler Brown's two clutch free throws and two misses in the last six seconds from WSU's Toure' Murry and Garrett Stutz -- from shocking the Shockers all the same. (Sorry. Couldn't resist.)

Wichita State doesn't have much to worry about in the way of its NCAA tournament seed, of course. But every team along the bubble line, including many of those mentioned below, should be terrified. If Creighton suffers the same fate at any point this weekend, the Missouri Valley will send three teams to the NCAA tournament and steal one bid from a bubble that is destined to shrink even further down the stretch.

Could that third team be Illinois State? Why not? When you beat Wichita State on a neutral court, you deserve the benefit of the doubt.

No. 2 Syracuse 58, No. 18 Louisville 49: This was always an uphill battle for Louisville for one obvious reason: The Cardinals can't score. Louisville can defend. It can rebound. It can get stops when it needs them. But when you have the Big East's 11th-best offense on a per-possession basis, when your effective field-goal percentage ranks outside the nation's top 200 teams, when you turn the ball over on 21.8 percent of your possessions (national rank: No. 241) and your task is to break down Syracuse's smothering 2-3 defense in the Carrier Dome, well, good luck. Syracuse played its typically potent brand of extended defense, forcing Louisville a downright awful 2-of-23 mark from beyond the arc, and that's pretty much your game right there.

It's going to be interesting to see how Rick Pitino tries to adjust this team as he heads toward the NCAA tournament. A few weeks ago, Pitino told ESPN Radio's Scott Van Pelt that he liked to speed the game up and take more risks in the tournament; in his experience, too many coaches slow down in the tournament, fearing disorganization and disarray. This might be his only course of action in March. The Cardinals can't find any offense, but they can press and trap and slap and claw and hope to get easy buckets from turnovers and bad shots in transition. At this point, with this anemic, predictable offense (prediction: Peyton Siva won't see a defense guard him over the top on another ball screen all season), does Pitino have any other choice?

Variously Questionable Bubble Losses

West Virginia 50, South Florida 44: The Mountaineers desperately needed this win. Before this week's victory over DePaul, WVU had lost seven of its previous nine games and seen its once-certain at-large tournament bid -- WVU was once a No. 5 seed in Joe Lunardi's bracket; now it's a No. 12 -- become an entirely precarious matter. This win obviously helps, and not just because it was a win: It also put a ding on one of WVU's potential bubble rivals, South Florida, which has surged into the bubble conversation in recent weeks thanks to a gaudy Big East record and consecutive victories over Cincinnati and Louisville. A win Saturday might have put the Bulls on the right side of the bubble in official fashion. As it is, their profile still looks much better than it used to, but with a 5-10 road record and a 2-8 mark against the RPI top 50, some positive results in the Big East tournament may well be necessary.

UCLA 75, Washington 69: First things first: This was a really nice win for UCLA. It hasn't been the easiest week for the Bruins (that's a candidate for understatement of the year), but with back-to-back good wins (a blowout of Washington State and this plucky victory over the league's standings leader) at least they finished on a positive note. As for Washington, the loss might well have cost the Huskies the outright Pac-12 title. Cal still needs to win get a likely but hardly guaranteed win at Stanford, but either way, the Huskies' argument -- that an outright regular-season conference title in a high-major, albeit really bad, conference should guarantee a spot in the NCAA tournament -- looks even more specious now. Washington, like the rest of this league, has nothing in the way of nonconference results to point to as proof that it is considerably better than the RPI's impression of the Pac-12 as the 10th-best league in the country. It will be fascinating to see how the committee treats UW, and the Pac-12 as a whole, but if I'm the Huskies I'm planning on making a very deep run through the Pac-12 tournament, just to be safe.

Marshall 79, Southern Miss 75: Will a loss at Marshall damage Southern Miss's bubble chances? Doubtful. Marshall is a quality team -- a deep fringe bubble candidate in its own right -- and a four-point loss in the Herd's building isn't, or shouldn't, be the kind of thing that damages a team's bubble chances. What's more, the Golden Eagles still own an RPI within the top 20. In the past 16 years, no team with an RPI of 20 higher has ever missed the tournament. (The closest was 2005-06 Missouri State, which didn't have nearly as strong a profile as this team.) They should be fine.

Maintenance-Minded Bubble Wins

Xavier 72, Charlotte 63: Xavier's final home win of the season wasn't what the Musketeers would have planned heading into the season. To wit, from the AP: "It was a bittersweet day for Xavier, which had grown accustomed to ending its final home game with a spray of confetti and a few celebratory snips of the net. The Musketeers' streak of five straight A-10 regular-season titles was snapped this season." That dream was over weeks ago. Xavier has bigger fish to slice now. The Musketeers are as close to the bubble as you can be (Lunardi's most recent bracket has them as the first team outside the field). A win won't necessarily change that, but a loss would have been disastrous, and Xavier is now in at least slightly better position as it heads into A-10 postseason play.

Northwestern 70, Iowa 66: It was very easy to imagine Northwestern -- which missed marquee wins (Michigan, Ohio State) in soul-crushing fashion twice in the past two weeks -- losing at Iowa. The Hawkeyes beat Wisconsin and Indiana at home in recent weeks, Northwestern would no doubt be feeling the historic tournament pressure, and so on. But this was an impressive victory, or at least as impressive as a victory over Iowa can ever be. This is a little like Xavier's win: It doesn't provide a bubble bump, but it does prevent a potentially disastrous move in the wrong direction at the worst possible time of the season. Is Northwestern in right now? I'd guess yes. But it's hardly a done deal. Like nearly everyone else on the bubble, the only way for Bill Carmody's team to enter Selection Sunday with any measure of confidence is to play well in next week's conference tournament. That much is clear.

Miami 77, Boston College 56: Same situation here: A loss would have been a dream-killer. A win doesn't move the needle. Miami basically has two tourney-worthy qualities on its profile: A win at Duke (huge) and a home win over Florida State (slightly less huge, but still important). But other than that, there's not much there. Can the Hurricanes knock off one of this league's top four teams -- especially Duke or UNC -- on a neutral floor next week? That might be the baseline requirement going forward.

Connecticut 74, Pittsburgh 65: The Huskies have spent much of the past three weeks looking downright determined to overcome their computer numbers (a top-five overall strength of schedule and a top-20 nonconference figure) and somehow, some way, miss the tournament. This week's loss to Providence was an apparent punctuation mark on a pretty much horrible Big East season, or at least horrible relative to this team's elite talent. After this win, though, it looks like UConn will -- just barely -- hold on to a spot above the bubble fray.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Murray State was going to the NCAA tournament whether or not it won the Ohio Valley Conference tournament.

But the damage it would have done to its reputation this season, and more importantly its seeding in the field of 68, ensured the Racers were in it to win it Saturday.

Murray rallied from a 38-31 deficit with 14:47 to play, slipping past No. 2 seed Tennessee State 54-52 in the waning seconds on a driving layup by senior Jewuan Long. The victory gave the Racers (30-1, 15-1 OVC) the OVC’s automatic bid and their 15th overall NCAA trip, including five in the past 10 years.

It also in all likelihood saved them from a matchup in which they would have been the lower-seeded team. Now, who knows?

If anyone asks first-year Murray coach Steve Prohm for his team’s résumé, he’s only too happy to rattle it off.

“If you look at our body of work, you can make an argument for a 2,” Prohm said. “If you really factor in the numbers … our nonconference RPI is a 2. We haven’t lost a road game all season, they factor that in. We haven’t lost a neutral-site game all season. We have three top-35 RPI wins. We have like five or six top-100 wins or top-125 wins. When you factor all that into the equation then look at the fact we’re 30-1, you have to sit back and say, ‘Wow.’

“We’re not just 30-1 by mistake. Now do I think we’re going to get a 2-seed? Probably not. But 4, 5 or 6 if I’m a betting man. The tournament is about matchups. I just want proximity -- Nashville, Louisville, somewhere where our fans can come and support our guys.”

Nashville, a second- and third-round NCAA site, has been kind to the Racers. Not only did they win the OVC tournament here at Municipal Auditorium this weekend, but they also won at Tennessee State, 80-62 on Feb. 23, to avenge their only loss. The Tigers (20-12, 11-5) stunned the Racers in Murray on Feb. 9, winning 72-68.

“People were giving us all type of heck for losing to them,” Prohm said. “They won 20 games. They’re a top-125 RPI team.”

TSU was seeking just the third NCAA bid in school history and first since 1994, and it looked like it just might get it.

“They came out ready to play,” Long said. “They wanted to beat us just as badly as we wanted to beat them.

“We just kept fighting. We want to do it on the defensive end. They say defense wins championships, and we just thrive on that.”

Murray held TSU to just two points in the final 5:31.

If only Prohm had heard TSU coach John Cooper tout what his team has done this season. He no doubt would have been happy to sing the praises of the only team to hang a loss on his record.

“I told them in the locker room, ‘It’s the first time you’ve won 20 games since 1979,’” Cooper said. “It’s the first team to beat an SEC opponent [64-63 at South Carolina on Nov. 20]. First team to beat a team ranked in the top 10 in our history [Murray was No. 7 when TSU won].”

Cooper said he expects Murray to be seeded anywhere from fifth to seventh.

“Maybe they didn’t play their best game of the year today, but they made plays down the stretch,” Cooper said. “That’s what good teams do. Hats off to them. I’m happy that they’re representing our conference because they’re a very good team. I think they’ll show what OVC basketball is all about. I have nothing but respect for their program, their fans, their support. How they do it is top, top, top-notch.”

Prohm said he would allow his players to spend a couple hours in the Music City with their families before they boarded the bus to drive back to Murray, a little more than two hours away.

“I’ll give them Sunday and Monday off,” Prohm said. “Let them get away from it totally. Then I’ll figure it out [what Murray will do with its time off until it plays again]. I don’t have any idea, to be honest. I’ll call a couple of people and talk to them about how they’ve handled it.”

So far Prohm and his senior-laden team have handled just about everything well this season. Next up will be how to handle being the first OVC team to play its first-round NCAA tournament game as the higher-seeded team.

Jewuan Long's layup in the closing seconds gives No. 9 Murray State a 54-52 win over Tennessee State in the Ohio Valley Conference title game.

Ninth-ranked Murray State dominates Tennessee Tech 78-58, advancing to the Ohio Valley Conference finals.

Editor’s note: Eamonn Brennan breaks down North Carolina-Duke in today’s Weekend Watch. Andy Katz offers a dozen more games to keep an eye on this weekend.

Saturday

West Virginia at South Florida (Noon ET, ESPN3): Tell me again why West Virginia is a lock for the NCAA tournament? The Mountaineers are sliding toward the Big East tournament, losing seven of their past 10 games. Meanwhile, South Florida has won seven of nine and picked up its most important victory of the season by beating Louisville at the KFC Yum! Center on Wednesday. Winning 12 in the Big East didn’t put the Bulls in by itself, but which school got the Bulls to 12 probably did the trick.

Georgetown at Marquette (2 ET, ESPN3): Georgetown humbled Notre Dame and beat down Villanova in its final two home games. The Hoyas can draw even with Marquette in second place with a win in Milwaukee. The Golden Eagles should be good to go at home, but which squad will show? Marquette looked like an Elite Eight team in last week's second-half comeback at West Virginia. But its performance at Cincinnati on Wednesday was more worthy of a first-round exit. Regardless, this could be a preview of a Big East tourney semifinal.

Ohio Valley title game (2 ET, ESPN2): The Ohio Valley could be the first bid thief of Championship Week. Murray State enters the OVC tournament with one loss and is playing for a high NCAA seed. Coach Steve Prohm is hopeful that an OVC win will equate to a top-four seed to protect the Racers. Putting Murray in Nashville might not be as much of a reach if it wins.

Washington at UCLA (2 ET, CBS): The Huskies have emerged as the class of the Pac-12. UCLA is trying to ensure that it still has class. The Bruins need some sort of momentum going into the Pac-12 tournament in Los Angeles. Washington has a chance to improve its NCAA seeding with a strong performance in L.A. and then next week at the Staples Center.

Louisville at Syracuse (4 ET, CBS): The Orange are the Big East No. 1 seed and a lock for a No. 1 NCAA seed. The question in this game is whether Louisville can find its offensive flow after a disheartening performance against South Florida. The Cardinals won’t get healthy at Syracuse but need to find an offensive identity before the Big East tournament.

Baylor at Iowa State (7 ET, ESPN3): Iowa State had Missouri on the ropes in Columbia earlier in the week; Baylor is finally starting to find its mojo at the right time of the season. Forgive the Bears if they drop this game in Ames — this is much more about Iowa State. The Cyclones are going to make the NCAA tournament and could be a spoiler in the Big 12 tourney. Don’t dismiss this team's chances stealing the Big 12 tournament.

Yale at Penn (7 ET): Penn has to sweep Brown and Yale to set up a possible showdown with Princeton that could hand the Ivy League title to Harvard with a Quakers loss (assuming Harvard wins at Columbia and Cornell) or set up a possible playoff game with the Crimson for the Ivy automatic bid.

Texas at Kansas (9 ET, ESPN): Texas passes a number of eye tests — except that the Longhorns haven’t taken down one of the Big 12's big three this season in Kansas, Missouri and Baylor. The Longhorns probably won’t get this one, but the game might be more about their ability to be competitive going into the Big 12 tournament.

Sunday

Kentucky at Florida (Noon ET, CBS): Kentucky is hoping to lock up an undefeated SEC season and ensure itself the No. 1 overall seed ahead of Syracuse. The Gators, meanwhile, have been a bit of an enigma. Florida needs some momentum going into the SEC tournament. The Gators will need to make 3s and Patric Young must stay on the court to be an effective post player.

Missouri Valley title game (2 ET, CBS): The OVC is the first bid thief possibility. Sunday’s MVC title game could be the second of the weekend. If Creighton and Wichita State are in this game, there isn’t a problem. But if a third team sneaks in there and wins, suddenly the MVC will get three bids. If it’s a Creighton-Wichita final Sunday, expect a great atmosphere and a highly competitive affair yet again.

Ohio State at Michigan State (4 ET, CBS): The Spartans are vying to win the Big Ten title outright, something that seemed like a bit of a reach when they started 0-2 and then Ohio State destroyed Duke. But the Spartans’ Feb. 11 victory at Ohio State might go down as one of the most significant in a conference this season. It shifted the power and put the Spartans in position possibly to get a No. 1 seed. Look for the Spartans to win on Draymond Green’s senior night, capping off a great career that should end with him grabbing a Big Ten player-of-the-year trophy over Jared Sullinger.

Purdue at Indiana (6 ET, BTN): The Hoosiers have been one of the best home-court teams in the country. But they rocked the Boilermakers in Mackey Arena by 17. Purdue doesn’t forget. This is a great chance for payback by Purdue, which has been on a high of late. These two teams are both going to be in the NCAA tournament, with legit chances to win a game.

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1. Murray State has only one loss heading into the Ohio Valley Conference tournament in Nashville, Tenn., needing only to win two games for the automatic NCAA berth. “Our guys' sense of urgency is very high,’’ Murray State coach Steve Prohm said. “They are a resilient group. The biggest thing I told them is that we have an opportunity to win another championship, which is special in its own right.’’ Prohm said he told the team that winning the OVC could solidify a top-four seed.

2. Doc Sadler did his own deal at Nebraska last year, adding two years to his contract to take him through 2016 and ensuring a buyout of $3.4 million. The Huskers host Iowa on Wednesday in an attempt to get to five Big Ten wins in their first season in the conference. Nebraska doesn’t have any kind of glorious NCAA tournament resume. The decision athletic director Tom Osborne faces in the short term is if Sadler is the coach long-term to turn the Huskers into a top-half Big Ten team, and if it’s worth shelling out for a major buyout so soon after giving him an extension. Sadler didn’t finish higher than seventh in his first five seasons in the Big 12. He’ll finish near the bottom in the Big Ten in year one. If he will have time to show improvement in a new league is an unknown.

3. Columbia coach Kyle Smith is raving about the strength of the Ivy League as he prepares to host Harvard on Friday night. The former Saint Mary’s assistant said that the Ivy League is better than the West Coast Conference was in some of the years he was in the league. He also compared Penn guard Zack Rosen to, gulp, Steve Nash. “He’s smaller but tougher than Nash in college in my memory,’’ Smith said.

1. Saint Mary’s loss to Murray State 10 days ago seemed to temporarily zap the buzz out of the Gaels. But they didn’t fret. They returned to winning and swept a road trip at Portland and San Francisco. The Gaels clinched their first conference title in 23 years and snapped Gonzaga's 11-straight WCC regular-season title run. You cannot underestimate what this title will do for the program’s perception on the West Coast. Saint Mary’s will still have to survive a likely matchup against Loyola Marymount in the the semifinals of the conference tournament before a showdown with either BYU or Gonzaga in the finals in Las Vegas.

2. One of the selection committee's most intriguing decisions will be where to seed Murray State. The Racers need two wins in the OVC tournament in Nashville later this week to finish the season with just one loss. They will likely have to beat Tennessee State, essentially on the road, for the automatic berth. Murray State should at least be considered for a protected seed and play in Nashville in the second and third round. Where they will be seeded is still to be determined.

3. One of the toughest potential tournament title games could be in Sioux Falls, S.D., where top seed Oral Roberts may have to face No. 2 South Dakota State in a final. It would be cool to see SDSU in the NCAA tournament, if for no other reason than to get fuller representation from the states. Aside from South Dakota, only Maine and Alaska (no Division I teams) have yet to send a school to the dance. Oh, and I’ve never hidden my fondness for the nickname and logo. For whatever reason, I love the Jackrabbits as a nickname. And this team is no fluke. Nate Wolters is a serious player who averages 21.2 points, five boards and 6.1 assists a game. SDSU crushed Washington in Seattle on Dec. 18 in its most impressive win of the season. The Jackrabbits also beat ORU at home by 15.