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DAYTON, Ohio -- Analysis from Wednesday night’s First Four matchup between Vermont (16) and Lamar (16).

Overview: This wasn’t BYU-Iona or Mississippi Valley State-Western Kentucky for that matter. Those Tuesday games were classics. Vermont’s 71-59 win over Lamar lacked drama.

The Catamounts led most of the game. They shot 46 percent from the field in the first half and took a 30-21 lead into halftime. Pat Knight’s squad recorded 9 field goals in the first half.

The coach’s late-February rant seemed to motivate the squad. The Cardinals won six consecutive games, including the Southland tournament title. But that momentum ended in Dayton.

Vermont expanded its lead in the second half. Overall, it was 25-for-50 from the field and 17-for-24 from the charity stripe.

Turning point: The Catamounts launched a 13-0 run during a six-minute stretch in the first half after they were down 12-9.

Key player: Four McGlynn, who has the best name in the NCAA tournament, led the Catamounts with 18 points.

Key stats: Vermont had five turnovers. Lamar was 20-for-60 from the field.

Miscellaneous: Vermont really controlled the game and played within its offensive sets. The Catamounts are a solid team.

What’s next: Vermont will face North Carolina in the second round in the NCAA tournament.

You’ve kept up with his projections for the past few months, but Joe Lunardi doesn’t go into hibernation once the real bracket comes out. Our resident Bracketologist is a hardcore basketball fan who knows his stuff. Here are his picks for the Big Dance:

SOUTH

Second round
1 Kentucky over 16 Western Kentucky
9 Connecticut over 8 Iowa State
5 Wichita State over 12 VCU
13 New Mexico State over 4 Indiana
6 UNLV over 11 Colorado
3 Baylor over 14 South Dakota State
7 Notre Dame over 10 Xavier
2 Duke over 15 Lehigh

Third round
1 Kentucky over 9 Connecticut
5 Wichita State over 13 New Mexico State
3 Baylor over 6 UNLV
2 Duke over 7 Notre Dame

Sweet 16
1 Kentucky over 5 Wichita State
3 Baylor over 2 Duke

Elite Eight
1 Kentucky over 3 Baylor

WEST

Second round
1 Michigan State over 16 LIU Brooklyn
9 Saint Louis over 8 Memphis
5 New Mexico over 12 Long Beach State
4 Louisville over 13 Davidson
6 Murray State over 11 Colorado State
3 Marquette over 14 BYU
7 Florida over 10 Virginia
2 Missouri over 15 Norfolk State

Third round
1 Michigan State over 9 Saint Louis
5 New Mexico over 4 Louisville
3 Marquette over 6 Murray State
2 Missouri over 7 Florida

Sweet 16
1 Michigan State over 5 New Mexico
2 Missouri over 3 Marquette

Elite Eight
2 Missouri over 1 Michigan State

EAST

Second round
1 Syracuse over 16 UNC Asheville
8 Kansas State over 9 Southern Miss
5 Vanderbilt over 12 Harvard
4 Wisconsin over 13 Montana
6 Cincinnati over 11 Texas
3 Florida State over 14 St. Bonaventure
10 West Virginia over 7 Gonzaga
2 Ohio State over 15 Loyola (Md.)

Third round
1 Syracuse over 8 Kansas State
4 Wisconsin over 5 Vanderbilt
3 Florida State over 6 Cincinnati
2 Ohio State over 10 West Virginia

Sweet 16
4 Wisconsin over 1 Syracuse
2 Ohio State over 3 Florida State

Elite Eight
4 Wisconsin over 2 Ohio State

MIDWEST

Second round
1 North Carolina over 16 Lamar
9 Alabama over 8 Creighton
5 Temple over 12 California
4 Michigan over 13 Ohio
11 NC State over 6 San Diego State
3 Georgetown over 14 Belmont
7 Saint Mary's over 10 Purdue
2 Kansas over 15 Detroit

Third round
1 North Carolina over 9 Alabama
4 Michigan over 5 Temple
11 NC State over 3 Georgetown
2 Kansas over 7 Saint Mary's

Sweet 16
1 North Carolina over 4 Michigan
2 Kansas over 11 NC State

Elite Eight
1 North Carolina over 2 Kansas

NATIONAL SEMIFINALS
Kentucky over Missouri
North Carolina over Wisconsin

NATIONAL TITLE GAME
Kentucky over North Carolina

DAYTON, Ohio — Some folks thought the First Four didn’t matter. And then last night happened. Here we go again. Perhaps we’ll get more drama in the next installment from Dayton.

Vermont (16) vs. Lamar (16), 6:40 p.m. ET on truTV, University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio — The winner of this matchup will face No. 1 North Carolina.

Pat Knight publicly blasted his veterans after a tough loss in late February. The tactic was criticized by some, commended by others. The bottom line is that it worked.

The Cardinals have won six straight, a run that includes the Southland tournament title, since that 10-point home loss against Stephen F. Austin on Feb. 22. Anthony Miles (14.5 ppg) and Mike James (17.2 ppg) can go.

Vermont finished second to Stony Brook in the America East’s regular-season standings, but the Catamounts defeated the Seawolves in the conference tournament title game. The Catamounts are shooting 35 percent from beyond the arc. They held their opponents to just 60.5 ppg, second in the conference, and a 40 percent clip from the field, No. 1 in the league.

But they struggled down the stretch of their conference tournament title game, an offensive roadblock that they can’t afford against Lamar.

Four McGlynn leads the team in scoring (12.0 ppg) and he has the best name in the entire NCAA tournament. Personal opinion.

After what I witnessed last night here in Dayton, I can’t wait for the next set of games.

South Florida (12) vs. California (12), 9:10 p.m. ET on truTV, University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio — Two completely different teams. But whoever advances will have a shot to upset 5-seed Temple.

The Bulls are slow. They win ugly.

But they’ve held their opponents to 56.9 ppg, a Big East record for scoring defense. However, they average just 59.2 ppg on offense.

South Florida is the anti-Iona. The Bulls can guard everybody, but they can’t score. Augustus Gilchrist is the team’s leading scorer and he’s averaging 9.6 ppg.

It’s rarely pretty when South Florida takes the floor. But the Bulls can control the tempo.

Cal is a talented offensive team. The Bears led the Pac-12 with a plus-9.9 scoring margin. They shoot 48 percent from the field and they’ve averaged 71.7 ppg this season.

Justin Cobbs (12.9 ppg), Allen Crabbe (15.3 ppg) and Jorge Gutierrez (13.1 ppg) comprise one of the best backcourts in the field.

South Florida will pressure all three and try to force Cal to make things happen off the dribble. Cal will attack and try to play fast and make South Florida pick up the pace.

It’s an interesting contrast.

Will we see another amazing night of NCAA tourney basketball? I hope so.

Andy Katz discusses the Saturday games that intrigued him the most: New Mexico's Mountain West title victory, Missouri's dominant Big 12 performance, Colorado's Pac-12 welcome, Pat Knight's post-rant championship and conference rings for old rivals Memphis and Louisville.

Pat Knight discusses his comments about his Lamar squad, a team that responded by sending Knight to the NCAA tournament for the first time as a head coach.

Andy Katz previews five key games for Saturday of Championship Week.

Check back Friday morning for Joe Lunardi's full bracket, but here are his basic projections through Thursday night's action.

SINCE THE LAST UPDATE

• Texas moves above “Last Four In” (No. 47 overall) with its victory over Iowa State.
• Mississippi State drops to “Last Four In” with its loss to Georgia.
• South Florida stays in the field (No. 46 overall) despite its loss to Notre Dame.
• Oregon moves from "First Four Out" to the last spot on "Next Four Out."

LAST FOUR IN

Washington
Mississippi State
Drexel
Seton Hall

FIRST FOUR OUT

Tennessee
Northwestern
NC State
Miami (Fla.)

NEXT FOUR OUT

Iona
Arizona
Saint Joseph's
Oregon

Also considered: Dayton, Marshall, Ole Miss

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (6)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Colonial (2)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
Detroit (Horizon)
Harvard (Ivy)
Lehigh (Patriot)
LIU Brooklyn (Northeast)
Loyola-Md. (MAAC)
Montana (Big Sky)
Murray State (OVC)
Saint Mary's (West Coast)
South Dakota State (Summit)
UNC Asheville (Big South)
VCU (Colonial)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

Editor’s note: This update does not include BYU-Gonzaga in the WCC tournament.

NOTABLE

• North Carolina moves up to top line as projected No. 1 seed.
• Belmont (Atlantic Sun) clinches fifth NCAA bid in seven years.
• Texas falls out of field, replaced by Xavier (“Last Team In”).

Last Four In
Xavier
Northwestern
South Florida
Colorado State

First Four Out
Texas
VCU
Oregon
NC State

Next Four Out
Miami
Tennessee
Saint Joseph’s
Dayton

BRACKET MATH

Take the “solid” at-large candidates (current Tournament Odds at 90% or better) and there are now 34 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers and that’s another 20 spots. All told there are 54 of the 68 spots accounted for, with 14 still up for grabs among current “Bubble” teams.

S-CURVE PROJECTIONS

1-KENTUCKY 2-SYRACUSE 3-KANSAS 4-NO. CAROLINA
8-Ohio State 7-Missouri 6-Duke 5-Michigan State*
9-Marquette 10-Georgetown 11-Baylor 12-Michigan
16-UNLV 15-Florida 14-Indiana 13-Wisconsin
17-Louisville 18-Wichita State 19-Florida State 20-TEMPLE
24-CREIGHTON 23-Notre Dame 22-Murray State 21-Vanderbilt
25-Gonzaga 26-New Mexico 27- San Diego State* 28-MEMPHIS
32-Purdue 31-Kansas State 30-Iowa State 29-SAINT MARY’S
33-Alabama 34-Cincinnati 35-Virginia 36-Southern Miss
40-Connecticut 39-Washington* 38-California 37-Saint Louis
41-West Virginia 42-Seton Hall 43-Harvard* 44-LONG BEACH STATE
48-Colorado State 47-Mississippi State 46-Brigham Young 45-Arizona
49-South Florida 50-Northwestern 51-Xavier 52-IONA
56-NEVADA 55-ORAL ROBERTS 54-DREXEL 53-MIDDLE TENNNESSEE
57-Belmont 58-DAVIDSON 59-AKRON 60-VALPARAISO
64-UNC Asheville 63-UT ARLINGTON 62-MONTANA 61-BUCKNELL
65-LONG ISLAND 66-STONY BROOK 67-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 68-SAVANNAH STATE
72-NC State 71-Oregon 70-VCU 69-Texas
73-Miami (Fla.) 74-Saint Joseph’s 75-Dayton 76-Tennessee

Bold - automatic qualifier; * - current conference leader.
ALL CAPS: Regular-season champion (NIT auto-bid if needed)

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (5)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
Pac-12 (3)
West Coast (3)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)

NCAA AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

UNC Asheville (Big South)
Murray State (Ohio Valley Conference)
Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

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A panel on Outside The Lines discusses recent coaching moves at Lamar, Marquette, and Alabama.

So, hey, how's Pat Knight doing at Lamar? Let's go check, shall we? Let's see here ... actually, things look pretty good. The Cardinals are 17-11, already a four-game improvement over last year's 13-17 team. They have an 8-5 record in the Southland conference, which, OK, the Southland conference is bad. Still, the first-year coach, whose tenure at Texas Tech didn't exactly go well, has his team ranked in the top 140 in the KenPom rankings and No. 97 in the LRMC. At first glance, that's a pretty good year, right?

Apparently, Knight doesn't see things that way. After Thursday night's home loss to Stephen F. Austin, the Cardinals' third in their past four games, Knight let loose with a rather epic postgame rant. It began with Knight's entrance, when he stopped senior guard Mike James from finishing an answer, telling him: "OK, let's go. I'm back. You don't have a clue what it takes to win." Things just sort of took off from there.

You can see the video here. I recommend you watch it.

Knight directed his ire toward his seniors, who he blamed for poor energy and effort in practices and games. He called them out for attitude issues, for dalliances with drugs, for a lack of accountability -- you name it, Knight said it. He held nothing back. Some of the choicest selections:

• "We have a bunch of tin men out there right now. They've got no heart. I've never been around a team that's got so many problems as this one has. Usually you've got one or two guys that are a problem. We've got an infestation of guys that are hard to coach. I've never been around a group as a whole that are like that. Not one guy stands up."
• "When I played, if you acted like the way some of these guys do, you got shoved in a locker with a forearm up against your neck and told you don't do that."
• "We've got the worst group of seniors right now that I've ever been associated with. Their mentality is awful. Their attitude is awful. It has been their M.O. for the last three years."
• "We've had problems with them off the court, on the court, classroom, drugs, being late for stuff. All that stuff correlates together if you're going to win games. You just can't do all that B.S. and expect to win games. And if people have a problem with me being harsh about it, I don't care. I came here to clean something up."

Turns out, some people do have a problem with Knight being so publicly harsh. Among them is Rob Dauster, who wrote at Beyond the Arc that he has a feeling Knight "is going to regret this press conference," that the "house issues must stay in house," and that "blaming your players [for] a loss, in my mind, is unacceptable." I can dig that, but I can also see the other side: The whole point of Knight's rant is that he doesn't feel his players (and, as he says, kids in society in general) are held accountable. This may not be the prettiest way to do so, but if you're trying to drive the point home and you're in Month 4 of the season and nothing has worked, making them publicly accountable is one way to do so. It may not be the prettiest way, but it's certainly one way.

Indeed, this may be the freedom afforded to a coach like Knight at a place like Lamar, a Southland program with little in the way of annual national relevance. Could Knight get away with this in his first year in a power-six conference? Probably not.

But this is nothing new: The man is honest, sometimes to a fault, with the press. Two years ago at Big 12 media day, Knight said the 2010-11 season was a "get-fired or get-an-extension kind of year." His team went 13-19 and tied for 10th in the Big 12. On March 7, 2011, Texas Tech fired him. Knight could have soft-pedaled his status, could have said the right things about "building a foundation" and "seeing progress," could have peppered his news conference with mindless preservation-minded coachspeak nuggets. Instead, he told the truth. If only more coaches would do the same.

On Thursday night, Knight told the truth again. It wasn't pretty, and it would be a shock to see Lamar's players finish this season strong; Knight practically pushed them out the door already. But he said what he felt needed to be said. Harsh as it was, in a world full of coaches who treat their teams like nuclear codes, it's hard to fault him for that.

(Hat tip: The Dagger)

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Contribute your thoughts and questions at 1 p.m. ET. See you there.

The matchups for the 10th annual BracketBusters event were announced Monday night, but projecting how important some of these games will be three weeks before they happen is hardly an exact science.

Nevertheless, the evidence exists that BracketBusters usually help at least one team’s profile. Historically, George Mason is the most obvious example of the event helping a team’s cause. In 2006, the Patriots’ win at Wichita State was a large reason they received a controversial at-large berth -- one they used to reach the Final Four.

Every matchup may not move the meter for the 10-member selection committee, but there is a chance. So with that mind, here are my initial thoughts on what should be the top games. (Keep in mind, the home and road designations are pre-set before the season).

Editor's Note: The non-TV matchups can be found here.

All times ET

1. Saint Mary’s at Murray State, Feb. 18 (6 p.m., ESPN/ESPN2): You can debate whether the Gaels should be going to Creighton instead. I made that case in Tuesday’s 3-point shot. The Gaels are winning the WCC. The Bluejays are atop the Missouri Valley. Both conferences play at a higher level than the Ohio Valley.

That said, there’s certainly nothing wrong with this matchup. If Murray State is still unbeaten, it becomes fascinating because the Gaels will be the Racers’ best opponent this season. The best matchup is Matthew Dellavedova against Isaiah Canaan at the point. Rob Jones trying to keep Ivan Aska off the glass also will be critical.

Saint Mary’s is going to be in the NCAA tournament. Murray State will be as well barring some sort of collapse. So this is a game that won’t put a team in the tournament, but could affect seeding. And for drama, this is the game that could prevent the Racers from running the table prior to March. I’m convinced Saint Mary’s has second-weekend potential. Does Murray? This game will help us find out.

2. Long Beach State at Creighton, Feb. 18 (10 p.m., ESPN2): Hey, the 49ers are on the road again. They should be used to it. Long Beach State went to Kansas, Louisville, San Diego State, North Carolina, Montana and Pitt in the nonconference. They also played in Hawaii at the Diamond Head Classic. This is a legit team. Dan Monson has his best unit at Long Beach with a star guard in Casper Ware. The 49ers are running the table so far in the Big West and with a 34 RPI should have a spot in the NCAAs regardless. Creighton, which is atop the RPI among these teams at 14, has a national player of the year candidate in Doug McDermott. Antoine Young will have his hands full with Ware, but he can also cause problems himself. Creighton has the Omaha home court advantage, but this is a matchup that could easily be seen in the NCAA tournament between two teams that could win a game.

3. Nevada at Iona, Feb. 18 (4 p.m., ESPN/ESPN2): The Wolf Pack are undefeated in the WAC. Iona is tied with Loyola (Md.) and Manhattan in the MAAC. But both teams aren’t locks for the NCAAs if they don’t win their respective conference tournaments. That’s why this game will be critical to the cause. A win by Nevada thousands of miles from Reno will get the Pack credit with the selection committee. Neither team has a standout nonconference win but there is star power on the court. Deonte Burton is a legit scorer for the Wolf Pack. Scott Machado is one of the top four point guards in the country. This will likely be an up-tempo game and a good watch. Iona coach Tim Cluess didn’t want a West Coast team for return travel. But he can’t dismiss the good fortune of at least getting a conference leader.

4. Wichita State at Davidson, Feb. 18 (12 p.m., ESPN/ESPN2): The Shockers lost in triple overtime at Drake over the weekend. Davidson lost at Samford. That takes a bit of the luster out of both teams’ ability to possibly move up in the matchups. But each team has a shelf-life win that could catch the selection committee in March. Wichita State blew out UNLV at home and Davidson beat Kansas in Kansas City. A road win by Wichita State would enhance its strength of schedule and likely bump up the 31 RPI. Davidson, at 67, could use a top-40 RPI win, too. Wichita will want to push at every opportunity. Davidson may be a bit more deliberate. No one should be shocked if both of these teams are in the tournament and in position to win a first-round game. This game may not knock the other out from contention for a bid. But clearly Wichita State may need it more since Davidson has a better shot to earn the automatic berth out of the Southern than Wichita does in the more competitive Missouri Valley.

5. Drexel at Cleveland State, Feb. 18 (11 a.m., ESPNU): The Dragons are a game behind George Mason in a cluttered group in the Colonial with ODU and VCU. Cleveland State is atop the Horizon League. Cleveland State could get an at-large bid due to its win at Vanderbilt if the Vikings lost in the Horizon League final. Drexel can’t get an at-large bid. But what if the Dragons won at Cleveland State? That’s not enough, but it would help in possible seeding. Both teams are undersized and would prefer a defensive approach. Expect a lower scoring affair that will be a grinder. And Gary Waters and Bruiser Flint, the two head coaches, love to work the sidelines in animated fashion.

6. Akron at Oral Roberts, Feb. 18 (2 p.m., ESPN/ESPN2): The Zips are in first place in the MAC and have the defensive presence in Zeke Marshall. His ability to block and alter shots will be a potential difference maker going forward. The Zips, if they can win the MAC tournament, proved that they have the ability to step up in play when they won at Mississippi State. But that was a lifetime ago. Oral Roberts is undefeated in the Summit (although that may change with a game at South Dakota State on Thursday). The Eagles’ best win was over a depleted Xavier in Cincinnati. ORU would be an interesting case for the selection committee if it doesn’t lose again and has four losses. Akron probably can’t get in without winning the MAC tournament -- the MAC can’t seem to get multiple bids.

7. Valparaiso at Loyola Marymount, Feb. 17 (9 p.m., ESPNU): The Crusaders have been the surprise of the Horizon League, a half-game behind Cleveland State. LMU has wins over Saint Louis, Villanova and BYU and is a top-four WCC team, although the Lions couldn’t stop Saint Mary’s at home last week. LMU isn’t going to make the NCAAs unless it goes on a run at the WCC tournament in Las Vegas. Valpo, though, could win the Horizon League. So this could be an opportunity to see one team in the Dance as Bryce Drew has done a solid job in his first year at Valparaiso.

8. Northern Iowa at VCU, Feb. 17 (7 p.m., ESPN2): The Rams are headed in the right direction and are a threat to win the CAA. VCU, a Final Four team last year, is tied with Old Dominion and Drexel for second place. But the Rams didn’t get any favors in this event. VCU needed a better game. Northern Iowa has slumped to 4-7 in the Valley. This game won’t move the meter for the selection committee.

The rest of the TV games (all on Feb. 18):

Buffalo at South Dakota State, 1 p.m. ESPNU: Buffalo rocked Dayton on the road and South Dakota State crushed Washington on the road. And SDSU’s Nate Wolters is a star. Oh, and I love the Jackrabbit nickname, my favorite in the sport. Go Bunnies!

Drake at New Mexico State, 3 p.m., ESPNU: Drake has come on a bit lately with the weekend win over Wichita State. NMSU is the second-best team in the WAC. This game has potential between teams that could be pests in their respective conference tournaments.

Old Dominion at Missouri State, 5 p.m., ESPNU: The Monarchs are tied for second in the CAA. Missouri State has slipped a bit to 6-5 in the Valley. This will be a grinder between teams that have been all over the place this season.

UNC Asheville at Ohio, 7 p.m., ESPN3: Ohio has D.J. Cooper and is one of the four best teams in the MAC. Asheville is atop the Big South standings. A bit stunned that Asheville got a TV game, but the Bulldogs have been solid.

UT-Arlington at Weber State, 8 p.m., ESPN3: Weber State has one of the top five NBA-level point guards in the country in Damian Lillard. Arlington is atop the Southland West division at 7-0, but there were probably better choices for this slot.

Notable omissions: Loyola (Md.) coach Jimmy Patsos has a right to be peeved that his team was left out of the TV portion of BracketBusters. The Greyhounds and Manhattan are tied with Iona atop the always-competitive MAAC, but only Iona made the cut in terms of television selections. It is important to note that both Loyola and Manhattan were designated home teams, so they couldn't have replaced, say, UTA. George Mason is also atop the CAA, but the Patriots are nowhere to be found on this list of TV games. Butler hasn’t played well and didn’t deserve a high spot, but it’s still a stark reminder of how much the Bulldogs are rebuilding this season that they didn’t even make the TV cut. Wow.

Join ESPN.com writers Eamonn Brennan and Myron Medcalf at 1 p.m. ET to discuss all things college basketball as we head into a weekend slate full of games.