O'Neil: Debating the No. 1 seeds

February, 23, 2011
2/23/11
12:14
PM ET
The coaches and pollsters have spoken. Duke is the new No. 1 team in the nation, which theoretically means the Blue Devils ought to receive one of the top four seeds on Selection Sunday.

And now it’s my turn for a rebuttal.

Start forming the line and call me a Duke hater (I am not, for the record). I think the Blue Devils are very good. I think the Blue Devils could win a national championship. I just don’t think right now, on Feb. 23, that Duke is a No. 1 seed.

It isn’t entirely the Blue Devils' fault. Their three best nonconference opponents (Kansas State, Michigan State and Butler) have become three of the season’s biggest head-scratchers, and the typically tough ACC is unusually tepid.

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Peyton Williams/Getty ImagesCoach K's Blue Devils have played only two teams with an RPI of 25 or better.
Duke doesn’t have any awful losses, but neither does it have any eye-opening wins. Here’s proof: The Devils are a respectable 6-2 against teams in the top-50 RPI, but they’ve played only two teams with an RPI of 25 or better: North Carolina (win) and St. John's (loss).

So today -- stress the word today -- if I were the one-woman selection committee, my top four would read: Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Kansas and Texas.

(Aside: I’d love to offer one of those spots to the winner of Saturday’s Mountain West showdown between BYU and San Diego State. I’m more TCU than BCS. But since neither the Cougars nor the Aztecs are undefeated, I’ll need one of the other top five to falter first.)

By now I’d hope that few would argue about Ohio State. The Buckeyes have two losses, both to ranked opponents, both on the road. There is no shame in either loss. OSU is 8-2 against the top 50. Those are legit numbers by a legit team.

After that, the consensus falls apart so let’s go case by case:

If you haven’t been paying attention, the Big East is a slaughterhouse. It is where good records go to die, where great teams lose bad games because they have the audacity to exhale. Plenty of people think that the conference has 11 worthy NCAA tournament teams right now. Eleven. That should be blasphemy. It is not.

Pittsburgh is currently atop the murderer’s row of hoops, a stout 12-2 in the league. If the best team from the best league doesn’t deserve a top seed -- especially when said best team has lost just one game on the road all season -- who does?

The Panthers’ only “bad” loss was to Tennessee in Pittsburgh. I was at that game and still honestly can’t explain what I saw.

Otherwise, all that stands in the way of Pitt and perfection is a a home loss to a ranked Notre Dame and a road loss on a last-second circus shot by newly ranked St. John’s.

As for Kansas, the Jayhawks have pretty much gone two ways this season: won by annihilation or lost. Toss out the losses to Texas and Kansas State and KU is beating opponents by an average of 21.6 points per game. That’s fairly astounding. I’ll agree that the Wildcats have been disappointing and if beating Kansas State doesn’t equate to a quality win for Duke, losing to K-State shouldn’t be a forgivable loss for Kansas. But the stakes for the Jayhawks were different. Kansas and Kansas State are rivals and Bramlage Coliseum was primed and ready for the Jayhawks. Plus the stakes for a desperate Wildcats team were considerably higher.


Finally, Texas. I know the Longhorns have four losses, an unspeakable amount for a No. 1 seed. I also know that two of those losses came before Dec. 15 and one was to Pittsburgh in New York City. I also know they took Connecticut to overtime before losing.

And yes, I know the Longhorns lost to "lowly" Nebraska, but the ‘lowly’ Cornhuskers are a respectable 18-8 overall and 6-6 in the Big 12. That’s at least a bubble team.

Texas has seven wins against the RPI top 40 and its strength of schedule is an impressive 20 (only Kansas, at 12, has a better SOS among the five debatable top seeds).

So there you have it, my rebuttal.

And like any good politician, I reserve the right to entirely change my position before election day on March 13.

Dana O'Neil | email

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