Things could change in the next few weeks, but here's my take on what right now are the three most bubblicious games of BracketBusters:
Old Dominion at Northern Iowa, Feb. 19 (ESPN2, 7 p.m. ET)
This is a pivotal pairing for Old Dominion. Northern Iowa is going to the NCAA tournament regardless, so a road win for the Monarchs would go a long way toward securing an at-large bid if necessary. ODU managed an at-large bid three years ago by following a similar formula: a nonconference win at Georgetown and a solid BracketBusters comeback victory at Toledo. UNI on the road is a tougher opponent, but the Panthers bring a bigger payoff. Think about George Mason's 2006 BracketBusters win at Wichita State. Who could have predicted those teams meeting again in that year's Sweet 16?
Siena at Butler, Feb. 20 (ESPN2, 11 a.m. ET)
Much of what's written above applies to Siena and Butler. The Bulldogs are almost certainly in the NCAA tournament already, but the Saints are still lacking a signature victory. The bubble is soft enough this year to carry an at-large Siena without such a win, but I wouldn't want to chance it. A win for the Saints at Hinkle Fieldhouse would punch their ticket should they stumble in next month's MAAC tournament.
Wichita State at Utah State (ESPN2, 11:59 p.m. ET)
The time and place will push this pairing under the radar a bit, and that's unfortunate. The Shockers currently reside on our "First Four Out" list despite a victory over Northern Iowa, in large part because of a No. 330 nonconference schedule ranking. Utah State (InsideRPI No. 54) can help rectify that deficiency, but only if Wichita pulls out a win. My sense is that the winner of this game stays in the at-large conversation -- the Aggies also have a win over BYU, after all -- and the loser will be left only the automatic qualifier route.
Old Dominion at Northern Iowa, Feb. 19 (ESPN2, 7 p.m. ET)
This is a pivotal pairing for Old Dominion. Northern Iowa is going to the NCAA tournament regardless, so a road win for the Monarchs would go a long way toward securing an at-large bid if necessary. ODU managed an at-large bid three years ago by following a similar formula: a nonconference win at Georgetown and a solid BracketBusters comeback victory at Toledo. UNI on the road is a tougher opponent, but the Panthers bring a bigger payoff. Think about George Mason's 2006 BracketBusters win at Wichita State. Who could have predicted those teams meeting again in that year's Sweet 16?
Siena at Butler, Feb. 20 (ESPN2, 11 a.m. ET)
Much of what's written above applies to Siena and Butler. The Bulldogs are almost certainly in the NCAA tournament already, but the Saints are still lacking a signature victory. The bubble is soft enough this year to carry an at-large Siena without such a win, but I wouldn't want to chance it. A win for the Saints at Hinkle Fieldhouse would punch their ticket should they stumble in next month's MAAC tournament.
Wichita State at Utah State (ESPN2, 11:59 p.m. ET)
The time and place will push this pairing under the radar a bit, and that's unfortunate. The Shockers currently reside on our "First Four Out" list despite a victory over Northern Iowa, in large part because of a No. 330 nonconference schedule ranking. Utah State (InsideRPI No. 54) can help rectify that deficiency, but only if Wichita pulls out a win. My sense is that the winner of this game stays in the at-large conversation -- the Aggies also have a win over BYU, after all -- and the loser will be left only the automatic qualifier route.

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